MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 5, 2016

[Maple Demon 449]

7 minutes ago, AmDamDemon said:

Agreed. He redefines the location of the left field with most of his posts and I have noticed his absence

The gifs certainly have struggled to reach his standards of 'uniqueness'.

[dazzledavey36 54,816]

Pretty sure Dee-Luded is on a holiday after is Caroline Wilson comment.

[Biffen 12,940]

21 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Pretty sure Dee-Luded is on a holiday after is Caroline Wilson comment.

Stuie and Dee-luded have something in common then.

 

[McQueen 17,864]

On 21 April 2016 at 8:59 PM, KingDingAling said:

I believe Petracca will debut and that the club already know Garlett hasn't came up. I will be shocked if Petracca does not debut.

So?

[KingDingAling 3,757]

17 hours ago, McQueen said:

So?

So I was wrong, isn't the first time, won't be the last. You must have a lot on tonight.

[McQueen 17,864]

41 minutes ago, KingDingAling said:

So I was wrong, isn't the first time, won't be the last. You must have a lot on tonight.

Yeah, a fair bit.

[jane02 3,747]

2 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Are you bringing the filth with you on Sunday Jane?

Of course. He dislikes Richmond all most as much as I do. AND he will be wearing his 2016 Members scarf!!

Happy wife, happy life!

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

5 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Yes they are. In my multis I usually put 8 X $10 multis each week. That allows me to take 3 games each way. The last two weeks I've gotten 9. I called the Lions early on here and they got up. Once you have a form line you should be able to pick at least 6 winners a week. Then take the other 3 games each way. Last week paid $680 for a $10 bet. Minus the $80 outlay = $600 profit.

why not take your 6 best straight out for 80 bucks its the same thing, 

[Clayton van Oliver 1,823]

10 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Pretty sure Dee-Luded is on a holiday after is Caroline Wilson comment.

Ah yea. That's right. Not on.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

Still having quoting issues.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,232]

12 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Pretty sure Dee-Luded is on a holiday after is Caroline Wilson comment.

'luded is my favourite poster. I miss his intellectual insight.

He should be reinstated immediately to bring some sanity back to this site.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,232]

10 hours ago, jane02 said:

Of course. He dislikes Richmond all most as much as I do. AND he will be wearing his 2016 Members scarf!!

Happy wife, happy life!

Well ok but make sure he does not sneak any Collingwood paraphernalia  into the ground ie socks, jocks, black and white hanky. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

9 hours ago, WhyAlwaysMe said:

why not take your 6 best straight out for 80 bucks its the same thing, 

With games I consider to be "locks" I tend to load up with larger amounts as the collective odds aren't huge but with a decent outlay the return can be rewarding. 

With regards to the ten dollar multis using this weekend as an example. Returns range anywhere from approximately $360 - $3700 depending on who you bet with. 

The biggest payout requires/required.

crows (Hawks won, had game each way)

swans (lock)

north (lock)

doggies (lock)

power (cats won, had game each way)

dees (no lock but took them outright)

freo (lock) 

saints ( giants - have this game each way)

bombers ( pies - have this game each way)

I actually did 4 games each way this week for the first time. Worst case scenario is one of your "lock games lose) but if they all get up you can't lose. How much you win varies depending on results of each way games.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2016 by Bombay Airconditioning

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

4 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

With games I consider to be "locks" I tend to load up with larger amounts as the collective odds aren't huge but with a decent outlay the return can be rewarding. 

With regards to the ten dollar multis using this weekend as an example. Returns range anywhere from approximately $360 - $3700 depending on who you bet with. 

The biggest payout requires/required.

crows (Hawks won, had game each way)

swans (lock)

north (lock)

doggies (lock)

power (cats won, had game each way)

dees (no lock but took them outright)

freo (lock) 

saints ( giants - have this game each way)

bombers ( pies - have this game each way)

I actually did 4 games each way this week for the first time. Worst case scenario is one of your "lock games lose) but if they all get up you can't lose. How much you win varies depending on results of each way games.

 

 

i don't think you understand the basics of gambling, when you back 2 horses/teams/anything in a 2 horse field you profit is decreased by 15% over any sort of reasonably time (season). just multi your locks for your maximum spend & over the season you will show 15% more profit or 15% less loss.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

8 minutes ago, WhyAlwaysMe said:

i don't think you understand the basics of gambling, when you back 2 horses/teams/anything in a 2 horse field you profit is decreased by 15% over any sort of reasonably time (season). just multi your locks for your maximum spend & over the season you will show 15% more profit or 15% less loss.

Your starting to lose me, what I do I understand is that I started with $150 in my account round 2 NAB cup before we played the dogs. 5 weeks later I have taken my initial $150 out and have $5000 in my account, depending on results today/tonight/tomorrow there could be another $400 - $1300 in there.

 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

As for "basics of gambling" I have my own rules. One of them is minimising the variables and eliminate the risk. For example I only bet head to head, I never do lines/margins or qtr/half/full time leaders. 

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

2 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Your starting to lose me, what I do I understand is that I started with $150 in my account round 2 NAB cup before we played the dogs. 5 weeks later I have taken my initial $150 out and have $5000 in my account, depending on results today/tonight/tomorrow there could be another $400 - $1300 in there.

 

its your ability to selecting your lock that is creating your profit.

for example this week you spent $160 on your multis if your locks win & giants/pies win I'm guessing you'll collect around $500

however if you just multi your locks for $160 you will collect around $1400

yes some weeks the outsiders of you each way legs will win  giving you a higher profit, but over long term you lose profit 

[Bigred 494]

41 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

As for "basics of gambling" I have my own rules. One of them is minimising the variables and eliminate the risk. For example I only bet head to head, I never do lines/margins or qtr/half/full time leaders. 

My rule

One Melbourne Cup, 10$,  per person per yr...

Its the bookies full time job, your punt. He will always win. Trust in the Schwarz!

End of sermon

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

Ok, I think I see the confusion.

If you reread my post earlier on this page I have : 

large money on SWANS/ROOS/DOGS/FREO 4 lock games

to make a profit of $1650

in addition to that I have on 16 X $10 multis, that allows me to take 4 games each way. Betting on all 9 games but having :

2 bets = 1 game each way 

4 bets = 2 games each way

8 bets = 3 games each way

16 bets = 4 games each way

You could have any amount but $10 works for me. Obviously worst case scenario is that one of the games not taken each way loses. Let's say they all win. I then combine all the odds to get a worst case scenario (all favourites get up) to best case scenario (all long shots get up)

This week the worst case scenario is about $400 ( $400 - $160 outlay = $240 profit). Best case now that crows/port both lost is about $1300 ( $1300 - $160 = $1140 profit) For that to happen I need saints/bombers. 

You then have 16 different possibilities ranging between $400 and $3700 depending on results of 

Hawks/crows

Port/cats

saints/giants

pies/bombers

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

Yes I could bet the $160 on top of what I already had on 4 games but by doing this it allows me to be involved in every game with minimal risk in what I classify as danger games.

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

i understand your bets

what do you think would happen if you took all 9 games each way (over long term).

you would lose 15% of your turnover.

if you could make profit by backing 2 horses in a 2 horse race we could retire now

[The Oracle 130]

I just checked the latest odds and Richmond are now strong favourites at $1.60 to win c.f Melbourne at $2.40.

The Dees no longer have to struggle with the spectre of being the favourite and having to win.

I regard this as a blessing from above.

We'll win this one now.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,384]

Lucky for the cash out option....

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

On 4/23/2016 at 7:23 PM, AmDamDemon said:

Sensational work, sir

Thx Am, you have to be quick around here!

[Maple Demon 449]

On Saturday, April 23, 2016 at 0:55 PM, Maple Demon said:

+15.5 is $3.70 and 20-39 is $6.75. Might have to have a wee wager of $10 on those.

Lucky I followed through.