Saturday Talking Point: How far can we improve in 2016?

[Demon Spofforth 288]

I'm expecting improvement and a better style of play but I think finals are beyond us. Just reckon there's a number of other teams that will improve as well and there's going to be quite a bottleneck around the 6th-12th spots. So while I don't expect us to make the 8, I certainly see us being far more competitive and stopping the blow-outs that have been so prevalent the last 5-6 years. Definitely on board for a 2017 finals gig though. Premiership 2019-20.

[beelzebub 23,377]

I cant help but hear the analogy in my head ..."look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves "

Here I think its a case of if we as a team just play better, cleverer footy and lessen the mistakes and make sure we DO win  those close ones then  Finals will just happen as a matter of course.

I cant see why we couldnt win quite a few if not the majority of the first 9 games . Then we hit a wall in Port and Hawthorn, but if we have some momentum...who knows

Of the earlier ones its the North game that will tell us much. I have no fear of the Giants of Essenscum. Collingwood we can meet on our terms.  The Doggies will push us but if we DONT make the same mistakes of last year all these games are winnable if we're competitive...and for at least 3 out of the 4 qtrs and we dont give teams 30 mins  headstart.

The back half of the year is certainly more "interesting' but if we've started off ok I think we can stay in it.

Any team that thinks we're a day out for them will be sadly in for a shock.  I think that now this year we have a whole bunch of blokes wearing a red/blue guernsey who are keen as mustard to just not play footy...but play winning footy. Seems like finally a culture of playing for your team mates , the jumper as well as yourself  has permeated into the ranks. They arent just playing for a position now.

We played last year without really having a good offence in place. It was the old story, lack of scoreboard pressure. If we can effectively maintainn our defensive ability  but find a way to kick another 20-25 points a game will we be in the 8.  The Pennies are the points !!!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

21 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

One the one hand it is plausible to see Adelaide and North slip out the bottom end of the 8. On the other hand, Geelong 'plus Dangerfield' and Port 'plus Toumpas' would be the obvious most likely to take the step up.

What?

[beelzebub 23,377]

It's interesting how times have changed. There was a time we hitched our hopes to the'prized' picks debuting and magically morphing into game winning heroes. All would-be right.

Well we all know how that all went. Now the slow and steady approach rules , unless of course you're just banging on the door so hard it has to give way. As a club however we've moved on and hopefully  soon , upward.

Then there are the clubs trumpeting their newbies out onto the coliseum of footy.

I'm glad we're not them anymore

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

I'm looking for these two improvements and a bit of injury relief from the footy gods . If we get them the sky's the limit.

1. Improved running and spreading.

My observation last year of why we fell apart in games was that our boys stopped running. When we were competitive we were running hard defensively to cut off attacks and running hard offensively to set up attacks. When put under pressure by better teams or late in games the first thing that went was the two way running as they lost confidence, dropped their bundles and went back into their shells. This meant that in our worst games we weren't going to climb out of the hole. 

Since these rebuilds started it appears our list hasn't had the conditioning to be able to maintain competitive running. A few of the coaches have said the fitness levels are there now which has enabled them to concentrate on executing the game plan this pre season. This is a major step forward.

2. Reduced turnovers.

These have been absolute momentum killers over this era. They are also partly caused by a lack of 1 above.

I believe turnovers are caused as much by players not knowing what to do as they are by lack of skill. If a player gets a ball looks down the field and there are no clear targets then they are going to be forced to hold on to the ball too long and are forced to send it to questionable options which cause turnovers. Hopefully all the game plan work that has been done over the summer is going to lead to a lot more clear options which will lead to a lot less turnovers. This comes down to being taught where to run to and then actually doing the running.  

It sounds like this pre season has been based around improving these two factors. If the training has worked I expect to see a significant improvement onfield. I don't have any idea what that will translate to in wins. I call 9 wins a pass, however, my main interest in the number of wins is how many will be needed to convince Hoges to stay and attract someone like Prestia or O'Meara. I think that may be at least 10 but probably 11.   

If the footy gods finally smile on us and we have close to our best 22 on the field most of the season anything will be possible.

[Demonised 1,354]

Footy is coming.

[beelzebub 23,377]

41 minutes ago, It's Time said:

I believe turnovers are caused as much by players not knowing what to do as they are by lack of skill.

I do too

This I really think will change and be the difference. Purpose, defined and understood .

[Yossarian 1,820]

God damn finally

[Deespicable 2,726]

I am quite happy for Robbo to have his opinion and the fact that he and other journos keep thinking we are crap, can't recruit, can't develop will actually help how we go as if they think that, so do our opponents. That sort of thinking is just So 2013!

I reckon our draw is hard but if we are up early things will fall into place. For instance if we get over GWS in Rd 1, we could actually string about seven of the first nine before we hit the hard stretch - starting with Port. 

I was bordering on bullish last year when we went after pace and added Garlett, Lumumba, Frost and Vandenberg to overcome what was in 2014 the slowest side in the competition.

Sadly Frost, VB and Kent - three of our quickest six - all got injured fairly early in the season and reduced our transition capabilities.

This year we are quicker again - Kennedy on top of Frost, VB and Kent back - and maybe later in the season we can see why we went for Oliver and not Parish. We also have a quicker Rd 1 ruckman (Gawn v Jamar) and we may even play Terlich or Hunt (although I suspect that will happen later in year).

I also think we have so much more depth than last year that we cannot go backwards.

The other positive is that we now have three genuine arrogant stars to go with a very hard-working, tight-marking and strong-tackling midfield. Like every team, our three stars - Gawn, Hogan and CP5 - are crucial to the team and we will need a bit of luck to go our way when they miss.

But how many sides have a midfield that flows as deep as ours or as young as ours and how many have six genuine tacklers like Viney, VB, Angus, Vince (when tagging), Bugg, Stretch and that doesn't include Jonesy who is a good tackler but is so heavily tagged these days that he is blocked out of most tackling situations.

The key however to our rise is whether Roosy/Goody have been able to institute a more attacking game plan - although that is the same at almost every club except the Eagles, Dogs and maybe the Crows.

The Hawks ditched three of their oldies last year because Clarko could see where the game was headed and knew he would have problems in 2016 - hence Hartung will now be a regular defender.

North added Anderson for example - although I don't think he can save them becoming an even grumpier bunch of old men.  

In our case, it's the confidence to take the game on when it becomes available that is lacking. It's what worries me everytime Col gets the ball. Does he always have to go to the 50/50 contest? Melksham would have helped our run, Salem helps our precision and you can see that if Hunt's game was more rounded, he'd add a spark off the backline that's been missing since Allen Johnson retired.

In my view, on paper we are now a top 8 side with the most promising bunch of youngsters outside of GWS and maybe the Dogs.

But getting that winning confidence (arrogant mentality) into our list, with a gameplan that works, is still the question. If our big three play most weeks, we'll have enough of it up forward to make the eight. If they don't, then we'll have to rely on our ability to frustrate at the stoppages with a rabid bunch of hardworkers.       

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Top post.

 

[Deemonator 12]

Top post but i don't how you can count CP5 as one of our three stars when he hasn't played a game yet. 

[Pates 9,660]

The question on whether we'll improve is dependent on a lot of factors. Sure on the surface we SHOULD improve; our list is young, a few of the core are reaching that magical 50+ games mark, and I feel the team is starting to gel and trust each other.

Those are all reasons why improvement is on the cards, but there are factors why it's very far from a sure thing. For one every other team is improving, the Bombers may be the exception to this, but even the teams that are meant to be on the decline are finding ways to improve. This means we need to step our game up even more. We are also putting a lot of pressure on some young shoulders; Jesse Hogan is a freak and an amazing player but he is still young and developing, Viney is a gun and he's gonna be recognised as that this year which will means more respect from the opposition, and we are relying on players such as Kent, Salem, Stretch, Petracca, and Brayshaw to make big strides and take us to the next level.

Then of course there's the unknown variable of injuries.

My thoughts are that we will continue our upward trend but we won't set the competition alight. 10-12 wins is what I'm hoping for. Either way I'm just happy the footy season is almost upon us again!

Edited February 16, 2016 by Pates

[binman 42,986]

11 minutes ago, Deemonator said:

Top post but i don't how you can count CP5 as one of our three stars when he hasn't played a game yet. 

I do. He will be a gun and I'm predicting will have a significant impact on our fortunes. Rising Star.

[P-man 13,366]

The thing with the team this season is there are so many individual X factors, e.g. VB and Kent having a greater running capacity with a full pre-season under their belt. No-one knows exactly how they will go but almost everyone acknowledges their high ceiling. It makes for an exciting year at the very least.

10 wins and no thrashings will be a pass.

[Farmer 883]

On 13 February 2016 at 1:42 PM, beelzebub said:

Sportsbet offering $9 for Dees to make 8

Might just throw a C-note on that

 

On 13 February 2016 at 1:56 PM, Sir Why You Little said:

We can make the 8 this year

but we are thin at CHF & in the Ruck so we need the injuries to be low

i am hoping that some unknown players force their way into the side..

Well you had better move quickly! Dee's were 11/1 for the 8 6 weeks ago.

ive had a sizable wager at 10s. No doubt that has forced down the odds

[Farmer 883]

15 hours ago, Pates said:

The question on whether we'll improve is dependent on a lot of factors. Sure on the surface we SHOULD improve; our list is young, a few of the core are reaching that magical 50+ games mark, and I feel the team is starting to gel and trust each other.

Those are all reasons why improvement is on the cards, but there are factors why it's very far from a sure thing. For one every other team is improving, the Bombers may be the exception to this, but even the teams that are meant to be on the decline are finding ways to improve. This means we need to step our game up even more. We are also putting a lot of pressure on some young shoulders; Jesse Hogan is a freak and an amazing player but he is still young and developing, Viney is a gun and he's gonna be recognised as that this year which will means more respect from the opposition, and we are relying on players such as Kent, Salem, Stretch, Petracca, and Brayshaw to make big strides and take us to the next level.

Then of course there's the unknown variable of injuries.

My thoughts are that we will continue our upward trend but we won't set the competition alight. 10-12 wins is what I'm hoping for. Either way I'm just happy the footy season is almost upon us again!

I like your approach to this

i think there are many other possible " big improvers". What about Harmes and ANB? Both had good exposure last year.both showed plenty. And for some reason, no-one is referring to Dom Tyson whose season was destroyed by his leg injury. He offers genuine class when fit. Ditto Frost from whom we had almost nothing last year, but who was highly rated

if 3 or 4 of last year's second tier could create permanent positions for themselves, it would be great. By mid season could Hogan, Gawne and Tom McDonald be pressing for All Australian?

if these guys don't kick on then-----!

 

[beelzebub 23,377]

I'm actually thinking we might go beyond a small improvement. If a handful lift noticeably then we're heading towards a paradigm shift of achievement.

If we click...we'll CLICK !!

[No10 461]

19 hours ago, Deespicable said:

The key however to our rise is whether Roosy/Goody have been able to institute a more attacking game plan - although that is the same at almost every club except the Eagles, Dogs and maybe the Crows.

Surely there's no other side with this scale of potential improvement across so many players.  Tyson, VB, Salem, Brayshaw, Kent, Gawn.  Even Jones is going next level with his new neck and confidence as Capt.  Viney is out of control.  Watts might even do something, I'm a believer... still.

Plus the mindset from the coaching group has shifted from nurturing to a winning culture, that will push us into the 8.

Roosy's final year as coach, I hope his intensity goes right up.  This is a finals year, that should be the expectation at every level.

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

woops

Edited February 17, 2016 by It's Time

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

18 minutes ago, No10 said:

Surely there's no other side with this scale of potential improvement across so many players.  Tyson, VB, Salem, Brayshaw, Kent, Gawn.  Even Jones is going next level with his new neck and confidence as Capt.  Viney is out of control.  Watts might even do something, I'm a believer... still.

Plus the mindset from the coaching group has shifted from nurturing to a winning culture, that will push us into the 8.

Roosy's final year as coach, I hope his intensity goes right up.  This is a finals year, that should be the expectation at every level.

It must be February.

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

Very interesting article on Realfooty today.  

AFL season 2016: Paul Roos yet to commit to Demons for 2017

Link http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-season-2016-paul-roos-yet-to-commit-to-demons-for-2017-20160217-gmw6r4.html#ixzz40OpJoLLP 
 

Here's a couple of interesting quotes.

"Roos and football operations boss Josh Mahoney have been instrumental in a revamp of the football department, player development, game style and playing list, with 32 changes in playing personnel over the past three years through the draft, trade and free agency."

"Goodwin, former Crows skipper and Essendon assistant, and Roos share beliefs how the game should be played, including a need to be "brutal" at the contest."

"Having assessed their own list and that of rivals, the Demons believe they will have 20 to 23 "good" players this season, up from "13 decent players" in 2013, whom they can rely on each week to perform. Their analysis shows the top-four teams have about 27 whom they can call upon."
 

"The Demons, with seven wins last season, have also narrowed the gap in terms of what they pay their players, to the return they believe the players have given. Internal valuations show there was a 27 per cent discrepancy last season in terms of what could be considered over-payment, but that margin is set to be slashed to 4 per cent this year, meaning, Mahoney said, "we are getting to the stage of paying the players what they are worth".
 

[beelzebub 23,377]

19 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Very interesting article on Realfooty today.  

AFL season 2016: Paul Roos yet to commit to Demons for 2017

 

Cant this little gem slip past. Up til now there's been NO official talk what so ever ( supposedly ) about Paul being at Melbourne beyond 2016. Many a rumour and suspicion he might adopt a mentor/overseer/whatever role  but here its put into pixels !! 

Interesting

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

Roos said last year that he devoted a lot of time into how we played and didn't spend to much time assessing the other teams. Just imagine when the coaching stuff sit down and actually analysis how to bet the opposition through their weaknesses.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

On 12 February 2016 at 7:55 AM, beelzebub said:

Not sure how to deal with a topic where Robbo is quoted as the baseline

Only when you regard Robbo as an expert of the quality of cask wine.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

18 hours ago, Deemonator said:

Top post but i don't how you can count CP5 as one of our three stars when he hasn't played a game yet. 

To the uninitiated how many training sessions have you been to this season?

CP5 is a freak. He has a ready made body for footy 100kg speed to match kicks like a mule.

Ok he may not make the first game but round 2 or 3 he is a homer