Talking point: The first half of the season to come

[old dee 23,782]

Too many, or one or two?

I think the common theme among most is that it's winnable. Not 'in the bag'.

Based on end of year results for 2014?

Why don't we wait and see how the pre-season form looks. That'll give us a better indication of 'odds'.

Spot on steve we have no other choice of course.

All our comments at this time of the year are only on gut feel.

Edited January 20, 2015 by old dee

[Go the Biff 3,414]

I recently read a thread on Bigfooty about potential R1 upsets. I know, it's BigFooty.

However, the consensus from the non-Melbourne fans indicates that us beating GCS would be a considerable upset. So at this stage I'd agree we have the underdog tag.

A lot of water to flow under bridges until then but the reality is it doesn't matter what we or the neutrals think. It's what the players think when they run out on the ground

[The Devil Inside 2,147]

Wow!, the hair shirt wearers and lemon suckers are out early this year, haven't even got the NAB Cup yet

[P-man 13,366]

We will go into this game the under dog by a considerable margin.

We are playing at home against a team that finished outside the 8 and won 3 of its 11 away fixtures last season. A team that will also be missing arguably their second best player. We'll be underdog because we're Melbourne and it's Round 1, and the bookies have been fooled before, but it won't be by a "considerable margin".

The point about the first 5 games is a simple one - they are all realistically winnable. Crows will be the toughest as they will want blood after we embarrassed them last season, but with that comes some doubt in their minds.

We haven't even seen any pre-season form. That will also play a part.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,363]

Too many, or one or two?

I think the common theme among most is that it's winnable. Not 'in the bag'.

Based on end of year results for 2014?

Why don't we wait and see how the pre-season form looks. That'll give us a better indication of 'odds'.

Exactly, as I said yesterday, if we run thinking we've list before the game has even started why bother running out.

I wonder how Hinkley addressed his players in his first year.

[rpfc 28,267]

We are $2.95 dogs in the market for Rd 1...

[old dee 23,782]

We are playing at home against a team that finished outside the 8 and won 3 of its 11 away fixtures last season. A team that will also be missing arguably their second best player. We'll be underdog because we're Melbourne and it's Round 1, and the bookies have been fooled before, but it won't be by a "considerable margin".

The point about the first 5 games is a simple one - they are all realistically winnable. Crows will be the toughest as they will want blood after we embarrassed them last season, but with that comes some doubt in their minds.

We haven't even seen any pre-season form. That will also play a part.

Good afternoon P-man here is why we will be under dogs in the first game

They won 10 games last year and beat us at the MCG in our only meeting.

We won 4 games

Both teams appear to have recruited well it would appear in the off season and the GCS have a new proven coach.

They will have the best player in the competition back to lead them.

IMO GCS will be the clear favourites.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

The big clubs pick their battles though, they whine mostly about draws and how they can make maximum profit, we're where we are because of our mentality most bottom clubs are. If we start winning games most of our issues go away.

Collingwood/Hawthorn whinging about salary cap concessions for Brisbane/Sydney isn't about off-field it's about on-field.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

We will go into this game the under dog by a considerable margin.

We are 15.5 points underdogs. They're hardly a 10 goal favourite.

[P-man 13,366]

Good afternoon P-man here is why we will be under dogs in the first game

They won 10 games last year and beat us at the MCG in our only meeting.

We won 4 games

Both teams appear to have recruited well it would appear in the off season and the GCS have a new proven coach.

They will have the best player in the competition back to lead them.

IMO GCS will be the clear favourites.

Afternoon squire.

I agree we'lll be underdogs, but not by as much as you suggest for the reasons stated. If there was a NAB Cup, or a few rounds to judge by, then maybe.

The game between us was close. Both teams will have improved. Hopefully we'll have improved that little bit more.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

Cant get odds on the DEEs losing the first game so it will probably happen as per usual

We havn't come to play for so long I keep forgetting what its like to optimistic at the beginning of the season

We must win the first game!!!!

GC $1.44 MFC $2.70 odds on Sportsbet

[old dee 23,782]

We are 15.5 points underdogs. They're hardly a 10 goal favourite.

Never said ten goals

Then it gets down to your idea of what is a " considerable margin"

15 points is a fair margin in a two horse race IMO.

But obviously not in yours.

Via la difference.

[old dee 23,782]

Afternoon squire.

I agree we'lll be underdogs, but not by as much as you suggest for the reasons stated. If there was a NAB Cup, or a few rounds to judge by, then maybe.

The game between us was close. Both teams will have improved. Hopefully we'll have improved that little bit more.

Amen to that!

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,363]

Won't GC need time to learn the new gameplan......that's right, that only applies to us.

Edited January 20, 2015 by Al's Demons

[rjay 24,889]

We are playing at home against a team that finished outside the 8 and won 3 of its 11 away fixtures last season. A team that will also be missing arguably their second best player. We'll be underdog because we're Melbourne and it's Round 1, and the bookies have been fooled before, but it won't be by a "considerable margin".

The point about the first 5 games is a simple one - they are all realistically winnable. Crows will be the toughest as they will want blood after we embarrassed them last season, but with that comes some doubt in their minds.

We haven't even seen any pre-season form. That will also play a part.

Who's their second best player 'P-man'?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,363]

Swallow/Prestia

[P-man 13,366]

Who's their second best player 'P-man'?

Arguably, not definite.

J-Bomb O'Meara. Knee operations that would see him out of Round 1 last I heard.

[jazza 1,323]

Swallow/Prestia

I imagined it was Prestia/swallows.

[Grapeviney 9,712]

I wonder how Hinkley addressed his players in his first year.

By their names I think..

[The Reverend 1,736]

Nah, we're going to see it sooner rather than later. We'll all be at the G whooping it up and giving OD a hammering for his lack of faith. C'mon OD the time is near.

Relax Old Dee - The time of which I speak is the time of our illustrious team winning another flag. I'll check with my contact and make sure but I reckon you're good for another twenty years which should equate to another six premierships.

Breathe easy OD.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

Never said ten goals

Then it gets down to your idea of what is a " considerable margin"

15 points is a fair margin in a two horse race IMO.

But obviously not in yours.

Via la difference.

The bookmakers disagree with you - 15 points is a small amount, an average spread for a favoured team would usually be 25-35 points 40-60 points is a heavy favourite and 60-80 points is GWS in 2012/13 territory.

[rjay 24,889]

Arguably, not definite.

J-Bomb O'Meara. Knee operations that would see him out of Round 1 last I heard.

Thanks 'P-man', I would ague you are probably right. A couple of others come into the field I guess but he is a good one.

Lynch might be their 2nd most important player, I guess we all agree Ablett is still streets ahead of anyone anywhere...

[Deemotivated 550]

Confidence. Learning to take the wins

We coughed up several games that were there to be won in the last qtr in 2014.