Talking Point: Improvement - how far can we go in 2015?

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

I hate these arguments over basic mathematical principles BUT in 2014 we got 44%(vs 56% obv.) of the inside-50s in games we played.. that means you win an extra 5 contests over the course of a match, your i50 goes up 5 but your opponents ALSO decreases by 5, so the difference is a total of 10. FIVE contests over a match, on the premise of course that winning a contest around the middle of the ground, such as a stoppage, leads to an inside-50 (strong correlation).

I can see why you hate these arguments - but do you really believe each game has a fixed total of inside 50s?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I can see why you hate these arguments - but do you really believe each game has a fixed total of inside 50s?

omg this again

no I don't you INSERT VICIOUS INSULT, that's why it's called an AVERAGE

think about the concept

there will roughly the same inside50s and goals and any other stat per game in 2015 as there was in 2014 on AVERAGE. If your AVERAGE total goes up by 5 then your AVERAGE total against will ALSO decrease by 5

unless you reckon that for some reason next year there will be a huge increase in total inside50s per game. No you dont think that do you because that would be very stupid of you

very simple grade 4 maths. I won't be continuing the discussion bc my head will explode. I might try to teach my dog to speak French instead. Just dig out a kernel of intelligence and think about it

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

OK, you're statistically innumerate, I get that. But why so serious?

[ILLDieADemon 804]

OK, you're statistically innumerate, I get that. But why so serious?

Curry & beer is a long serving grumpy demonland member.

[rpfc 28,779]

ah yes, i forgot that was you. Weren't we on the same page then? You've changed your tune?

I hate these arguments over basic mathematical principles BUT in 2014 we got 44%(vs 56% obv.) of the inside-50s in games we played.. that means you win an extra 5 contests over the course of a match, your i50 goes up 5 but your opponents ALSO decreases by 5, so the difference is a total of 10. FIVE contests over a match, on the premise of course that winning a contest around the middle of the ground, such as a stoppage, leads to an inside-50 (strong correlation). We also should be seeing a better return on goals-from-inside-50s because of Hogan and Garlett.. but that is a separate point. I guess what I'm rambling about is that 4 wins/17th place looks bad, but the difference between that and 11 wins/9th-10th place is actually quite minimal.

This is supported by the scoreboard also - 6 losses by 20 points or less (ave 11.7 pts). Gameday average of 28 points on the scoreboard below AFL average. Wouldn't you agree that 5 contests leads to an inside-50 differential change of 10, leads to another 2-4 goals per game, leads to winning those 6 closes ones, leads to being close to AFL average and a % of 100.00

?

I started that thread to spark debate - not to end it.

I think you are taking a few leaps in the above post.

We improved markedly last year, and yet, we were still so far behind even below average teams, that the next step is to get to those teams level before looking past them.

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Who knows? to move up the ladder, you don't really need other teams to fall below you, it is one week at a time, you play one round at a time, it's your own win/loss that puts you on the ladder.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Curry & beer is a long serving grumpy demonland member.

I'm very jaded when it comes to snides and pedants, who miss the point and who are blatently wrong and would not admit it if you put a gun to their head

really short fuse for that I'll admit

[bush demon 2,062]

When preparing for the retrospective feature on 1975, it struck me that the Melbourne Football Club made enormous strides in that year after a disastrous wooden spoon season in 1974.

That season was former Swan champion Bobby Skilton's first as coach and it saw the Demons record only three wins (out of 22 games) and a percentage of 77.1.

The team improved on that three fold in terms of the number of wins to nine in 1975 and the percentage of 93.6 which was not far off that of Collingwood (93.9) which finished in fifth spot (in those days only five teams played off for the finals). Despite finishing in 10th place after three narrow losses at the end, they were only one game out of the five at the end of round 19 and if they had won the last three, would have made the finals for the first time since 1964 - a big "if" but they did lose by 6 points to Geelong in round 21 and 1 point to Collingwood in round 22. The team also suffered some other narrow defeats during the season and lived to rue a mid season slump which kept it out of contention.

Back in those days, the club had some real quality players like Robbie Flower, Stan Alves, Greg Wells, Gary Hardeman, Laurie Fowler, Carl Ditterich, Ray Biffin, Peter Keenan, Garry Baker and Steven Smith but the depth of players wasn't quite there. There were no big name recruits either so the improvement actually came from the fact that the players adapted much better to Skilton's style of play and there were less injuries after 1974 which had been a tough year for the club on that score.

I had always thought that the following year was one of major improvement. In 1976, the team won 11 games, had a percentage of 99.4 and finished sixth, only half a game behind Footscray which scraped into the finals after a draw against Carlton in the final round which kept Melbourne out of the finals for another eleven years (life was tough then). The big improvement however, really came in 1975.

So much has changed since then - there are more teams, an expanded finals format, the game is played differently with more complex tactics and strategies, there are different rules, more players change clubs in the off-season, recruiting of younger players is done by the draft system, training and preparation are more scientific and intense, there are better venues and ground conditions, interstate travel etc.

Back in 1975, Melbourne started in fine style with two wins. First gamer Marty Lyons (father of Adelaide's Jarryd) booted four goals in the season opener. Obviously, a good start to the season is needed but how far can we go in 2015?

Can anyone see us achieving what we did under the coaching of another former Swan forty years ago - a threefold increase in the number of wins which would get us to the cusp of the finals?

If so - how?

If not - why?

What goes round, comes round. Norm Smith came to South in 1970 and got them into the finals for the first time in decades with exhilarating football. Six years later Bobby Skilton, from South, very nearly got us into the finals. In the 90's Ron Barassi went to the Swans and helped resurrect the club. A year ago Paul Roos comes to our club and a turnaround in our club now looks on the cards. I'm hoping for near wins to turn into wins this year and get us closer to the middle of the table, and out of the stinking rut we have lain in these last few years.

[ManDee 7,222]

Your an idiot!

I love a bit of irony.

[rpfc 28,779]

blatently wrong

I laughed.

If there are around 100 Inside 50s a game and we average 40 and our opponent 52, then that would lead one to believe that our style of play is more reserved and defensive than most other teams. If we are to be more offensively minded and start to let the game flow more, perhaps we open the game up for ourselves but also our opposition...

So we might get 45 Inside 50s, but instead of keeping them out of their forward line 5 times - they get the other 55 Inside 50s and enter their forward 50 more than in 2014?

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

I know it's been said...

But the significance of early season wins for our club cannot be underestimated. And by that I mean winning rounds 1, 2 and 3 against beatable opposition.

There will come a time in which our longest serving players will have a mind-shift and an enormous shot of confidence and adrenalin. That will come from early wins, because they've been starved of them for so long. The players I'm speaking of are Jones, Grimes, Dunn, Howe, Watts, Jamar etc.

If these guys get a taste early on, many of them will look like completely different players. You'll notice the shift, and they'll be riding a wave. Much of our list has been turned over, but winning consecutive games at the start of a campaign could be the catalyst for the rebirth of the Melbourne Football Club. The belief will return. The younger players will play with greater confidence. It becomes a snowball effect for the entire club. Players, staff and supporters.

It's our time.

Imagine the feeling at the G in round 4 against the tiges having come off three straight wins at the start of the home and away season.

Get it done Dees.

Edited January 5, 2015 by stevethemanjordan

[HEMLOCK 39]

curry and beer is possibly a math teacher

[Pennant St Dee 13,305]

Essendon - will be missing half their team Still not sure what the outcome will be with this saga, don't see any improvement in them even with a succesful ASADA finding

Carlton - probably bottom 2 for them, knives out for Mick by round 2 although more like round 1 or the NAB cup. I see some improvement in them they were horribly underdone coming into 2014 a lot less of there squad coming of post end of season issues

Saints - odds on for the spoon but Carlton may give them a run They are doing their rebuild the right way but still a fair way off

GWS - hard to pick but may improve. Agree with you sometime over the next 2 years they will click

Lions - still have a lot of deficiencies, midfield strength will get them a good share of wins but the honeymoon is over for 'Leppa'. Their only issue is with Key position players, very strong midfield,it comes down to them unearthing some quality young talls or getting touch ups against sides who will rebound from an inefficient forward line and towell up there undersized defenders.

Dogs - have made some big Demon like mistakes. They need absolutley everything to go right for them to improve and not head down the ladder

Collingwood - probably stay where they are, don't really see them making a big move up or down. They still have some class and will win a few games on the back of that but will be mostly inconsistent

GC - I would expect to make the 8 with Eade in control, a very good coach and with another year the reliance on Ablett will be less Everything points to a tilt at the 8 at least, still some question marks should Ablett go down but if their young talls continue of some of the improved form they showed and stay fit they will be very dangerous for sides heading to Sth Qld

Richmond - no good, their first half season form last year is the real Richmond. Expect to see 'Dimmer' gone 2015/16. The first half of the season showed how reliant they were on Maric and Rance. If they stay fit and Grimes stays fit along with Cotchin and the rest of their mids they will be there or there abouts for a spot in the 8. They have improved steadily every year under Hardwick and the Top 4 is a possibility with a favourable run with injury

West Coast - probably around the same mark as Collingwood. Will continue to be flat track bullies and have the dream draw,their forwards will cause problems to may sides and the key for them is getting some leg speed and run through their midfield to get the ball forward quickly to take advantage of their forward assets, if they don't they can be vulnerable to being caught out quickly at ground level. Glass and Cox are massive losses

Geelong - taken big risks to cover ageing list with shortfalls, will slide further The slider from the top 4 for me but will still be in the hunt for the 8

Freo - see Geelong but without the additions to the list. Make or break for them. Well coached so should make top 8, top 4??? They have one last tilt in them if they can remain fit, quality midfield that will do enough to secure a spot in the 8. Fyfe is on the cusp of something special

Adelaide - have deficiencies, 12th - top 8 if they get a good run with injuries. Around the mark with the Pies and WC, Quality mdifield and another pre-season from Knee recon under the belt for Tex, I have them as better on paper than Meth Coast and well ahead of the Pies. Will Danger and Sloan be a distraction and how good can Brad Crouch be

Port - a contender. Paddy Ryder is the last piece in the jigsaw, their window is wide open

Swans - need a win to justify Buddy Tippett. Still good enough and last years performance in the GF will hurt

Hawks - ageing champions could slide, difficult for them to win it this year. Should finish 8 - 2. If they stay fit they are monty's for preliminary final again. They had injuries last year but they came early in the year as did Freo's injury run in 2013. Injuries late could hurt or aging players suddenly losing pace at an alarming rate but I certainly have them in the Top 4

North - taken risk with Waite, think they can win it. So close yet so far...probably top 8, if the risk works still can't see them winning. Hard to judge them, they are undermanned down back and I see them as somewhat flat track bullies but they have a lot of quality and could make Top 4 again

Us - Well it's not easy to take the big jump but Port did it a couple of years back. I would expect us to finish away from the bottom grouping and move into the middle rung this year which will give us a chance to scrape into the 8 if things go well. I think it more likely and in fact a must in 2016. Agree totally time to stop worrying about other sides and what they do and just worry about continued improvement and climbing the ladder because of what we do. 8 to 10 wins along with consistency and improvement in the emerging players is a pass mark. Anything else is a bonus (but will be welcomed) for 2015.

We can guarantee there will be a bolter, there always is and there will be another surprise packet who just free falls whether through injury or issues within the playing group. Form me it's

Top 4 chances

Hawks, Port, Swans, Freo, North & Richmond

Other Top 8 contenders

Adelaide, Geelong, Gold Coast, Meth Coast, Essendon

Possibilities for the 8 if everything goes right

Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, Collingwood

Out of the running for mine

GWS, Buldogs & St Kilda

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

curry and beer is possibly a math teacher

I am when on this site.

What do you think mate

match 1 - team A:40 vs team B:52

match 2 - team A:46 vs team B:??

all things being equal what would you expect ?? to be

Edited January 5, 2015 by Curry & Beer

[rjay 25,088]

Essendon - will be missing half their team Still not sure what the outcome will be with this saga, don't see any improvement in them even with a succesful ASADA finding

Carlton - probably bottom 2 for them, knives out for Mick by round 2 although more like round 1 or the NAB cup. I see some improvement in them they were horribly underdone coming into 2014 a lot less of there squad coming of post end of season issues

Saints - odds on for the spoon but Carlton may give them a run They are doing their rebuild the right way but still a fair way off

GWS - hard to pick but may improve. Agree with you sometime over the next 2 years they will click

Lions - still have a lot of deficiencies, midfield strength will get them a good share of wins but the honeymoon is over for 'Leppa'. Their only issue is with Key position players, very strong midfield,it comes down to them unearthing some quality young talls or getting touch ups against sides who will rebound from an inefficient forward line and towell up there undersized defenders.

Dogs - have made some big Demon like mistakes. They need absolutley everything to go right for them to improve and not head down the ladder

Collingwood - probably stay where they are, don't really see them making a big move up or down. They still have some class and will win a few games on the back of that but will be mostly inconsistent

GC - I would expect to make the 8 with Eade in control, a very good coach and with another year the reliance on Ablett will be less Everything points to a tilt at the 8 at least, still some question marks should Ablett go down but if their young talls continue of some of the improved form they showed and stay fit they will be very dangerous for sides heading to Sth Qld

Richmond - no good, their first half season form last year is the real Richmond. Expect to see 'Dimmer' gone 2015/16. The first half of the season showed how reliant they were on Maric and Rance. If they stay fit and Grimes stays fit along with Cotchin and the rest of their mids they will be there or there abouts for a spot in the 8. They have improved steadily every year under Hardwick and the Top 4 is a possibility with a favourable run with injury

West Coast - probably around the same mark as Collingwood. Will continue to be flat track bullies and have the dream draw,their forwards will cause problems to may sides and the key for them is getting some leg speed and run through their midfield to get the ball forward quickly to take advantage of their forward assets, if they don't they can be vulnerable to being caught out quickly at ground level. Glass and Cox are massive losses

Geelong - taken big risks to cover ageing list with shortfalls, will slide further The slider from the top 4 for me but will still be in the hunt for the 8

Freo - see Geelong but without the additions to the list. Make or break for them. Well coached so should make top 8, top 4??? They have one last tilt in them if they can remain fit, quality midfield that will do enough to secure a spot in the 8. Fyfe is on the cusp of something special

Adelaide - have deficiencies, 12th - top 8 if they get a good run with injuries. Around the mark with the Pies and WC, Quality mdifield and another pre-season from Knee recon under the belt for Tex, I have them as better on paper than Meth Coast and well ahead of the Pies. Will Danger and Sloan be a distraction and how good can Brad Crouch be

Port - a contender. Paddy Ryder is the last piece in the jigsaw, their window is wide open

Swans - need a win to justify Buddy Tippett. Still good enough and last years performance in the GF will hurt

Hawks - ageing champions could slide, difficult for them to win it this year. Should finish 8 - 2. If they stay fit they are monty's for preliminary final again. They had injuries last year but they came early in the year as did Freo's injury run in 2013. Injuries late could hurt or aging players suddenly losing pace at an alarming rate but I certainly have them in the Top 4

North - taken risk with Waite, think they can win it. So close yet so far...probably top 8, if the risk works still can't see them winning. Hard to judge them, they are undermanned down back and I see them as somewhat flat track bullies but they have a lot of quality and could make Top 4 again

Us - Well it's not easy to take the big jump but Port did it a couple of years back. I would expect us to finish away from the bottom grouping and move into the middle rung this year which will give us a chance to scrape into the 8 if things go well. I think it more likely and in fact a must in 2016. Agree totally time to stop worrying about other sides and what they do and just worry about continued improvement and climbing the ladder because of what we do. 8 to 10 wins along with consistency and improvement in the emerging players is a pass mark. Anything else is a bonus (but will be welcomed) for 2015.

We can guarantee there will be a bolter, there always is and there will be another surprise packet who just free falls whether through injury or issues within the playing group. Form me it's

Top 4 chances

Hawks, Port, Swans, Freo, North & Richmond

Other Top 8 contenders

Adelaide, Geelong, Gold Coast, Meth Coast, Essendon

Possibilities for the 8 if everything goes right

Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, Collingwood

Out of the running for mine

GWS, Buldogs & St Kilda

I see Carlton's lack of scoring power along with Judd going one year too many as a big negative. I don't think they have recruited well and are now reliant to much on Gibbs and Murphy. This is my reasoning for them dropping back.

Richmond to me will be the big loser this year. They have 3 gun mids, Kotchin, Delidio and Martin but need to play them forward and back to plug other deficiencies. Ellis is on the improve, Jack is a sook up forward and the defence is average at best. What they really lack though is onfield leadership plus I think they have a poor match day coach.

Further on the coach, he obviously thinks they have the list to be a contender as he did nothing to improve it. I think he is too close to the players and that clouds his view. You can't look at the performance against Port and just say it was a one off but that's what 'Dimmer' has effectively done. I think he is reading it wrong and his job will be on the line but I guess we will see as the year pans out.

Edited January 5, 2015 by rjay

[rpfc 28,779]

I am when on this site.

What do you think mate

match 1 - team A:40 vs team B:52

match 2 - team A:46 vs team B:??

all things being equal what would you expect ?? to be

Well, no, that is the point I was making - for us to have a more open, offensive game to get 46 Inside 50s, the other team would also benefit from having the more open game. So in a normal, offensively balanced game it would be around 100 Inside 50s:

2014 Melbourne: 40 vs Opposition: 52

2015 Melbourne: 46 vs Opposition: 54

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Well, no, that is the point I was making - for us to have a more open, offensive game to get 46 Inside 50s, the other team would also benefit from having the more open game. So in a normal, offensively balanced game it would be around 100 Inside 50s:

2014 Melbourne: 40 vs Opposition: 52

2015 Melbourne: 46 vs Opposition: 54

well why did you decide to make THAT point? when was anyone talking about us changing our gameplan to a more open one? you just made that bit up for some reason. I said if it stays constant at a total of 92, then we win 6 more stoppages or other important contests, we get 6 more inside50s while simultaneously denying them 6, and therefore breaking even. It is extremely straightforward which is why I a feel like I am taking crazy pills with you are arguing it for some unknown reason

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Where's the tomato sauce?

[HEMLOCK 39]

Curry and beer, our resident stats man

[Bitter but optimistic 22,246]

FMD! I would have to go off the grog for at least 3 days to understand the above stats. The odd part of that is that i passed stats at uni to level 2. FMD that's scary.....

[Bitter but optimistic 22,246]

Curry and beer, our resident stats man

Well not only a stats man HEMLOCK. C and B is a man of loose morals and works his way through a procession of hornbags. I must say his current love causes me severe palpitations.

[CBDees 3,167]

Well not only a stats man HEMLOCK. C and B is a man of loose morals and works his way through a procession of hornbags. I must say his current love causes me severe palpitations.

Too much info B&O!

[rpfc 28,779]

well why did you decide to make THAT point? when was anyone talking about us changing our gameplan to a more open one? you just made that bit up for some reason. I said if it stays constant at a total of 92, then we win 6 more stoppages or other important contests, we get 6 more inside50s while simultaneously denying them 6, and therefore breaking even. It is extremely straightforward which is why I a feel like I am taking crazy pills with you are arguing it for some unknown reason

Roos has already said that the focus will be on the offensive side of the game in 2015, as opposed to the defensive focus of 2014.

Roos said Melbourne would focus on a better balance between defence and attack in 2015, having reduced its average points against by about six goals per game last season.

"We probably started to do that over the last eight weeks of the season, and in our last game we kicked 14 goals, but North Melbourne kicked 19, so it's just a balance," he said. "We need to get better at moving the ball quicker and scoring. They'll have a better understanding of the defensive stuff now, but teams need to score as well to put pressure on the opposition."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/demons-steer-away-from-debutants-under-roos-20141105-11hbuy.html

[HEMLOCK 39]

Well not only a stats man HEMLOCK. C and B is a man of loose morals and works his way through a procession of hornbags. I must say his current love causes me severe palpitations.

Well not only a stats man HEMLOCK. C and B is a man of loose morals and works his way through a procession of hornbags. I must say his current love causes me severe palpitations.

Does he require salvation?

[HEMLOCK 39]

FMD! I would have to go off the grog for at least 3 days to understand the above stats. The odd part of that is that i passed stats at uni to level 2. FMD that's scary.....

FMD! I would have to go off the grog for at least 3 days to understand the above stats. The odd part of that is that i passed stats at uni to level 2. FMD that's scary.....

I knew you were a scholar of sorts BBO