The South Australians - why have they gone missing?

[Whispering_Jack 30,657]

South Australia has been strong in the AFL Under 18 National Championships in recent years but they haven't produced a proportionate number of draft picks. This year the Croweaters won the Division 1 championship and were far and away the best team - I think they might have lost just one game after all teams played each other twice.

They must have been a champion team rather than a team of champions because their players don't seem to rate among three of the best Phantom Draft gurus on bigfooty:-

KNIGHTMARE

1. St Kilda - Christian Petracca Eastern Ranges

2. Melbourne - Angus Brayshaw Sandringhan Dragons

3. Greater Western Sydney Jake Lever Calder Cannons

4. Brisbane - Patrick McCartin Geelong Falcons

5. Western Bulldogs Peter Wright Calder Cannons

6. Carlton - Sam Durdin West Adelaide

7. Gold Coast Jayden Laverde Western Jets

8. Collingwood Darcy Moore Oakleigh Chargers

9. Adelaide Jarrod Pickett South Fremantle

10. West Coast Paul Ahern Calder Cannons

11. Richmond Liam Duggan Western Jets

12. Fremantle - Caleb Marchbank Murray Bushrangers

13. Geelong Hugh Goddard Geelong Falcons

14. Gold Coast Lachlan Weller Broadbeach

15. North Melbourne Connor Menadue Western Jets

16. Port Adelaide Jordan De Goey Oakleigh Chargers

17 Hawthorn Connor Blakely Swan Districts

18. Sydney Isaac Heeney Cardiff

19. Essendon Peter Bampton Norwood

20. Greater Western Sydney - Corey Ellis Western Jets

CHRIS 25

1. St Kilda - Christian Petracca Eastern Ranges

2. Melbourne - Angus Brayshaw Sandringhan Dragons

3. Greater Western Sydney - Jake Lever Calder Cannons

4. Brisbane - Patrick McCartin Geelong Falcons

5. Western Bulldogs - Peter Wright Calder Cannons

6. Carlton - Lachie Weller Broadbeach

7. Gold Coast - Jordan DeGoey Oakleigh Chargers

8. Collingwood - Darcy Moore Oakleigh Chargers

9. Adelaide - Jayden Laverde Western Jets

10. West Coast - Jarrod Pickett South Fremantle

11. Richmond - Hugh Goddard Geelong Falcons

12. Fremantle - Sam Durdin West Adelaide

13. Geelong - Jack Steele Belconnen

14. Gold Coast - Paul Ahern Calder Cannons

15. North Melbourne - Liam Duggan Western Jets

16. Port Adelaide - Tom Lamb Dandenong Stingrays

17. Hawthorn - Kyle Langford Northern Knights

18. Sydney - Isaac Heeney Cardiff

19. Essendon - Jackson Nelson Geelong Falcons

20. Greater Western Sydney - Josh Glenn Central Districts

PAIGE CARDONA

1. St. Kilda Christian Petracca Eastern Ranges

2. Melbourne Angus Brayshaw Sandringham Dragons

3. Greater Western Sydney - Jake Lever Calder Cannons

4. Brisbane - Patrick McCartin Geelong Falcons

5. Western Bulldogs Peter Wright Calder Cannons

6. Carlton Sam Durdin West Adelaide

7. Gold Coast Jayden Laverde Western Jets

8. Collingwood Darcy Moore Oakleigh Chargers

9. Adelaide Hugh Goddard Geelong Falcons

10. West Coast Jarrod Pickett South Fremantle

11. Richmond Paul Ahern Calder Cannons

12. North Melbourne Caleb Marchbank Murray Bushrangers

13. Port Adelaide Liam Duggan Western Jets

14. Geelong Kyle Langford Northern Knights

15. Gold Coast Lachie Weller Broadbeach

16. Fremantle Jordan De Goey Oakleigh Chargers

17. Sydney Isaac Heeney Cardiff

18. Hawthorn Corey Ellis Western Jets

19. Essendon Jackson Nelson Geelong Falcons

20. Greater Western Sydney Brayden Maynard Sandringham Dragons

Only Sam Durdin, a highly rated tall KFP player makes it into all three phantom drafts. Peter Bampton and Josh Glenn each make it as late draft picks in only one phantom draft.

Do any keen draft watchers have an explanation for the anomaly? Are our draft experts too Victoria-centric and are there some bargains available here because the recruiters might hold similar views.

[note: Billy Stretch would also be expected to be close to 20 by some but due to the father son nomination, he's been slotted in by Knightmare and Chris25 as going on the second round and by Paige as a third rounder.]

[Whispering_Jack 30,657]

I looked up the 2014 NAB AFL U18 All Australian team and found very few from SA and certainly far fewer than the number you would normally expect from the national champions:-

Defenders:

Harrison Wigg (South Australia), Ed Vickers-Willis (VIC- Metro/Sandringham Dragons), Josh McGuinness (Tasmania), Darcy Tucker (Vic Country/North Ballarat Rebels), Caleb Marchbank (Vic Country/Murray Bushrangers), Angus Brayshaw (Vic Metro/Sandringham Dragons)

Midfield:

Paul Ahern (Vic Metro/Calder Cannons), Christian Petracca (Vic Metro/Eastern Ranges), Peter Wright (Vic Metro/Calder Cannons), Isaac Heeney (NSW/ACT), Jake Johansen (South Australia), Billy Stretch (South Australia)

Forwards:

Callum Mills (NSW/ACT), Darcy Moore (Vic Metro/Oakleigh Chargers), Rhys Mathieson (Vic Country/Geelong Falcons), Jayden Laverde (Vic Metro/Western Jets), Patrick McCartin (Vic Country/Geelong Falcons), Caleb Daniel (South Australia)

Interchange:

Connor Blakely (Western Australia), Ben Keays (Queensland), Darcy Parish (Vic Country/Geelong Falcons), Jack Steele (NSW/ACT)

[Wiseblood 24,637]

The only explanation I have is for Knightmare who readily admits he doesn't see a great deal of the SANFL and, therefore, doesn't end up factoring them in to his phantom drafts as much until much, much closer to draft night.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Crows and Port are hiding talent.

[rjay 25,088]

Do any keen draft watchers have an explanation for the anomaly? Are our draft experts too Victoria-centric and are there some bargains available here because the recruiters might hold similar views.

As I've said on another thread, I rate Gore. I reckon he beat Petracca around the stoppages in the champs. I'm surprised he is not rated higher and think he will be a good get for some club, I hope it's us.

[Wilson7 2,688]

Only Sam Durdin, a highly rated tall KFP player makes it into all three phantom drafts. Peter Bampton and Josh Glenn each make it as late draft picks in only one phantom draft.

Do any keen draft watchers have an explanation for the anomaly? Are our draft experts too Victoria-centric and are there some bargains available here because the recruiters might hold similar views.

[note: Billy Stretch would also be expected to be close to 20 by some but due to the father son nomination, he's been slotted in by Knightmare and Chris25 as going on the second round and by Paige as a third rounder.]

Knightmare has Billy Stretch as the 13th best player in the draft WJ, his power rankings are below his mock draft

2014 draft power rankings:

-- High level difference makers --

1. Christian Petracca (VIC Mid/Fwd)

2. Angus Brayshaw (VIC Mid)

3. Isaac Heeney (Syd Academy - NSW Mid)

4. Patrick McCartin (VIC - KPF)

5. Darcy Moore (Coll - F/S VIC KPF/KPD)

6. Peter Wright (VIC - KPF/Ruck)

7. Sam Durdin (SA KPD/KPF)

8. Jake Lever (VIC KPD)

9. Hugh Goddard (VIC KPD/KPF)

10. Jarrod Pickett (WA Mid)

-- Capable contributors --

11. Peter Bampton (SA Mid)

12. Lachlan Weller (QLD Util)

13. Billy Stretch (Melb F/S - SA Mid)

14. Connon Blakely (WA Mid)

15. Caleb Marchbank (VIC KPD)

16. Oscar McDonald (VIC KPD)

17. Connor Menadue (VIC Mid)

18. Jayden Laverde (VIC Util)

19. Alex Neal-Bullen (SA Mid)

20. Dean Gore (SA Mid/Fwd)

[Whispering_Jack 30,657]

Chris25 posted this on Bigfooty in June and it basically answers my question about why SA players are not rated individually in the Phantom Drafts despite (now) being the championship state team:-

As the old saying goes, a champion team will beat a team of champions.

For starters, the SA U18 program is far better than the Victorian ones. From top to bottom, our players are more physically ready for AFL football. They train and prepare that way. And more importantly, they play that way. Brenton Phillips is a very good coach, and prepares them for what lies ahead - whereas at times the TAC Cup compares to Auskick, with the way players run free and the best players are always put in positions to succeed. It's no real surprise that when the pressure kicks up a gear, it's the South Australians who are able to handle it.

And they pick a side to win, as opposed to just the 22 most talented players. Guys like Bower and Watchman are two of the more talented players from SA, but didn't immediately fit the team structures and had to wait their turn. And because of the more disciplined and defined playing style, it means these lesser known but physically more developed players have success.

So why are SA winning? They're stronger, better coached and more disciplined.

Why aren't they going to be the first 22 picks in the draft? Well, they're just not the most purely talented players around. Some of the Victorians are the better players, they just happen to play in a worse side. They have a lot of taller midfielders, and generally 'sexier' players. But talent alone doesn't win games.

I've got a whole thread devoted to South Australians, and I'll talk them up forever. Caleb Daniel and Jake Johansen are super players, but are just so tiny. As good as they are, they're not going top 20. Dean Gore, Peter Bampton, Brad Coulson, Alex Neal Bullen and Cory Gregson are all very good, strong inside midfielders. But they aren't the players a recruiter is going to sell the farm for. They're nice to haves, not must haves - typically these guys will go anywhere from the top of the second round to third/fourth round to potentially rookies. Harrison Wigg, Declan Hamilton and James Rose have all had great U18 Championships, but that doesn't automatically make them first round picks - I could see them all jumping into the top 30, but they also have question marks and limitations. Jack Hayes, Keenan Ramsay and Callum Wilkie have been really solid KPPs in every game, but they're not the talls that you'll be building a side around. I could list another 10 or so players who have a very good chance of getting drafted - Ethan Haylock being one, who I think Knightmare may have sold a little short.

It's also worth noting that some of the best players for South Australia have been underaged players - Ryan Burton is shaping as a top 5 pick next year. Aaron Francis, Luke Partington, Stephen Tahana and Tim Sullivan have also all played well and should be looked at as early picks. That's arguably where the talent is hiding, while the 18 year olds are doing their roles.

SA should go back to back. But when it comes draft time, you're picking individuals not a team.

Quite simple and straight-forward really.

[Whispering_Jack 30,657]

And just to give this thread a little more gravitas, Adelaide won the GWS Cox Plate this afternoon.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Missing South Australians? Look in the barrels.

[Whispering_Jack 30,657]

Seven days before draft day the media realises that SA appears underrepresented at the top end of the draft.

SA's first round drought

I asked the question at last week's MFC draft info night and Jason Taylor agreed that while SA was extremely well coached, it was a team that was was very even in ability and didn't have as many outstanding players as the two Victorian teams in the national carnival. On top of that, they tended to select some players who would do well at this level but might not have the attributes necessary to go further. I got the impression that this was a reference to the likes of pocket sized Caleb Daniel who starred in the champs but most pundits are suggesting might only get picked in the rookie draft.

Taylor did suggest that there were a few players from SA who might come into contention when our selection at #40 comes around.

[What 18,810]

well Adelaide is the capital of serial killers

Thats all i can think of when I read the thread title

Edited November 19, 2014 by hogans_heroes

[bush demon 2,062]

Why don't the phantom drafts show us having BOTH picks 2 and 3?

[nutbean 8,838]

Why don't the phantom drafts show us having BOTH picks 2 and 3?

pre the Frawley compensation pick

[Guest]

pre the Frawley compensation pick

All of the draft orders have changed now too. Lever has dropped to 6-12 in most phantoms, and McCartin is tipped to go at three in almost every one. Wright's stock has dropped too.

[rjay 25,088]

Seven days before draft day the media realises that SA appears underrepresented at the top end of the draft.

SA's first round drought

I asked the question at last week's MFC draft info night and Jason Taylor agreed that while SA was extremely well coached, it was a team that was was very even in ability and didn't have as many outstanding players as the two Victorian teams in the national carnival. On top of that, they tended to select some players who would do well at this level but might not have the attributes necessary to go further. I got the impression that this was a reference to the likes of pocket sized Caleb Daniel who starred in the champs but most pundits are suggesting might only get picked in the rookie draft.

Taylor did suggest that there were a few players from SA who might come into contention when our selection at #40 comes around.

Looks like you were ahead of the game on this one 'Jack' as with many issues.

Hopefully we have another SA kid join Stretch in the 40's...