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The 2014 AFL National Draft

Whispering_Jack
Whispering_Jack
in Melbourne Demons

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  On 11/07/2014 at 05:12, Whispering_Jack said:

I've been watching this kid and the more I see, the more I like ~ Eastern Ranges star Christian Petracca is leaving nothing standing in his path on the way to success.

Agreed, but I'd expect one of the teams with a top 2 pick to select Petracca instead of Wright (the other top 2 pick being McCartin).

I don't care how much they need a KPF, a decent KPP can still be acquired later on.

There are plenty of them in this draft: McCartin, Wright, Durdin, Goddard, Lamb, Marchbank, Watchman.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple.

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      On 11/07/2014 at 05:51, Machsy said:

    Agreed, but I'd expect one of the teams with a top 2 pick to select Petracca instead of Wright (the other top 2 pick being McCartin).

    I don't care how much they need a KPF, a decent KPP can still be acquired later on.

    There are plenty of them in this draft: McCartin, Wright, Durdin, Goddard, Lamb, Marchbank, Watchman.

    I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple.

    Have you considered that there's no guarantee yet that we won't be one of the teams with a top 2 pick?

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      On 11/07/2014 at 05:51, Machsy said:

    Agreed, but I'd expect one of the teams with a top 2 pick to select Petracca instead of Wright (the other top 2 pick being McCartin).

    I don't care how much they need a KPF, a decent KPP can still be acquired later on.

    There are plenty of them in this draft: McCartin, Wright, Durdin, Goddard, Lamb, Marchbank, Watchman...

    I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple.

    Not sure on this 'Machsy', I guess it's a wait and see. I think if St Kilda or Brisbane get pick one they will take McCartin. If either get pick 2 then St Kilda may go for Petracca but Brisbane with pick 2 would go with Wright.

    There's no guarantees that we won't have a top 2 pick.

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      On 11/07/2014 at 06:34, Whispering_Jack said:

    Have you considered that there's no guarantee yet that we won't be one of the teams with a top 2 pick?

    Sorry 'Jack', beat me by that much...

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    I think saints will finish last but we might well be 17th

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      On 11/07/2014 at 06:34, Whispering_Jack said:

    Have you considered that there's no guarantee yet that we won't be one of the teams with a top 2 pick?

    hmmm picks 2 and 3

    wonder what we can swap those for ?? lol

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      On 11/07/2014 at 06:50, beelzebub said:

    hmmm picks 2 and 3

    wonder what we can swap those for ?? lol

    Look if you're offering i'd probably take Parker and Prestia for those picks haha.

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      On 11/07/2014 at 06:34, Whispering_Jack said:

    Have you considered that there's no guarantee yet that we won't be one of the teams with a top 2 pick?

    No guarantees, but based on my conservative predictions we'll be 3rd last at worst.

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      On 11/07/2014 at 08:07, Machsy said:

    No guarantees, but based on my conservative predictions we'll be 3rd last at worst.

    Yeah...ive done the predictor a few times lately and keep ending up with 16th. Thats my gut feeling also

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    Yeah, the bailey ladder predictor on the AFL website gives you a good idea, and I've also done a couple of permutations of iffy matches, but I think we're firmly entrenched in 16th or even 15th depending on the result of our GWS matchup.

    It'd take a couple of shock results to change that, and I think we've seen signs of Brisbane and St Kilda starting to shut up shop already, sending players for season ending surgery.

    Us too, possibly.

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      On 11/07/2014 at 06:50, beelzebub said:

    hmmm picks 2 and 3

    wonder what we can swap those for ?? lol

    Pick 3 (compo pick) anyway.

    trade P-3(compo pick) & Terlich, to GCS, for Kade Kolodjashnij & P-11

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      On 11/07/2014 at 22:19, ChaserJ said:

    Chaser, have you seen much of Dean Gore? I was very impressed with him in the last game. Could end up a real bargain pick.

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    Under-rated is Durdin.

    Had a relatively putrid champs, but I'd love to get him onto the list.

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    I think Durdin is the pick of the big men.

    Durdin has a bit of X-factor about him.

    Versatile player, can take a grab, can leap, has the right attributes.

    But I'd still lean towards Petracca or Brayshaw at our pick.

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    If Chip leaves and we get Band 1 compo, i'd like to see us bring in a replacement for him. Seeing how there would be so few quality young, ready made KPD we could trade for, it wouldn't be the end of the world if we brought in Durdin with that pick.

    Use our first rounder on a Petracca or bringing in another good young mid, coz we clearly need to improve the midfield more.

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    It's interesting to see that McCartin kicked 7 goals and Petracca 5 for their respective TAC Cup sides yesterday. Both made their teams' best player list in their first games back after the Under 18 championships. Goddard was among the best for the Geelong Falcons too.

    Yes, we did well with the Tyson/Pick 9 deal but I'm wondering why so many people are quick to shun the potential top five picks when we're crying out for star quality players?

    Despite the examples of the odd failure here and there, the stats show that you're more likely to pick up an elite player with a top 10 pick than with picks 11 to 20.

    If we trade out of a top 3 or 4 pick this time it's going to have to be a super deal as far as I'm concerned.

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      On 12/07/2014 at 21:33, Whispering_Jack said:

    Yes, we did well with the Tyson/Pick 9 deal but I'm wondering why so many people are quick to shun the potential top five picks when we're crying out for star quality players?

    Same question i have been asking

    If we get pick 2 and 3, use them both

    Take Petracca at 2 and the best player available at 3

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      On 12/07/2014 at 21:33, Whispering_Jack said:

    It's interesting to see that McCartin kicked 7 goals and Petracca 5 for their respective TAC Cup sides yesterday. Both made their teams' best player list in their first games back after the Under 18 championships. Goddard was among the best for the Geelong Falcons too.

    Yes, we did well with the Tyson/Pick 9 deal but I'm wondering why so many people are quick to shun the potential top five picks when we're crying out for star quality players?

    Despite the examples of the odd failure here and there, the stats show that you're more likely to pick up an elite player with a top 10 pick than with picks 11 to 20.

    If we trade out of a top 3 or 4 pick this time it's going to have to be a super deal as far as I'm concerned.

    Jack this to me is the error of many a thinking both now and the last 10 years. This myth of needing elite. We struggle to put a decent AFL std team on the park because we dont have enough good meat and potatoes let alone any fillet mignon..

    Kids wont impact a team tomorrow and thats been our folly. Roos will endeavour to ensure kids spend more time learning their craft not less. Any reliance on kids, no matter how elite , will be less. I hope Roos uses both high picks to bring in some good 'decent' players who WILL lift this club quickly. We will still get some fairly lively picks. History suggests theres as much chance anywhere up to 50...and even then some gems appear late.

    Lets worry less about the cream and more about whats beneath.

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      On 12/07/2014 at 23:19, beelzebub said:

    Jack this to me is the error of many a thinking both now and the last 10 years. This myth of needing elite. We struggle to put a decent AFL std team on the park because we dont have enough good meat and potatoes let alone any fillet mignon..

    Kids wont impact a team tomorrow and thats been our folly. Roos will endeavour to ensure kids spend more time learning their craft not less. Any reliance on kids, no matter how elite , will be less. I hope Roos uses both high picks to bring in some good 'decent' players who WILL lift this club quickly. We will still get some fairly lively picks. History suggests theres as much chance anywhere up to 50...and even then some gems appear late.

    Lets worry less about the cream and more about whats beneath.

    Our folly has been the wrong picks and poor trades 'BB', aided by poor management and the introduction of 2 new teams. That's why we have what we have now.

    If we trade to get a bump now it will be the biggest mistake this club could make. I've said before there is a reason that the AFL imposes draft sanctions, why they effect the long term success of a club and why clubs want to trade back in early. By trading out our high picks we effectively create our own draft sanctions. Last years Tyson trade was a good one because we still got a top 10 pick from it and we managed to right a previous mistake in getting another top 10 pick from a couple of years back, that is not likely to be the case this year.

    If we're serious about future success we can't trade that away. We need to draft quality at the top end, trade for experience with players, look for value in players like Sinclair and set our selves to go hard at free agency in the next 2 years, not this year. Free agency is where we will get the icing on the top.

    We should also be pushing for at least 2 PP's this year one at the start of first round and one at the end(at least one of these I would look to trade). Forget the howling of other clubs, it's time our supporters and members considered only our club and started pushing back on the AFL. The introduction of the 2 new clubs has hurt our ability to be competitive, if the AFL is serious about equalisation then this is where they should start, on the ground. They will need to do similar with Brisbane and St Kilda in the next few years.

    I would love to have McCartin and Petracca at our club. They will both be walk up starts and with Hogan, Viney, McDonald, Salem and Tyson set the way for future success. They will now come into a system with Jones, Cross and Vince giving strong leadership going forward. I was not in favour of bringing in O'Keefe but on reflection adding him to that leadership group and getting a few games out of him might not be a bad thing for the development of a new group.

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    Said it before Petracca and Brayshaw with hopefully pick 3 and 4 would set our midfield up for the next 10 years. Add Billy stretch to that mix and it would be a super draft for us.

    The rest of the picks I would use on talls and maybe a small zippy forward.

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    I disagree rjay.

    It presumes there are no decent kids up to say pick 25. This is a flat draft by many accounts.

    Im in building and we would concern ourselves more with getting the house fixed up and right before worrying about extensions etc.

    If you want the likes of Hogan Salem Mac to stick around get them some good workmanlike team mates.

    Edit. I will agree that weve made some "wrong" picks and that hasnt helped. Just about every one was considered ELITE..I think :rolleyes:

    Edited by beelzebub

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      On 12/07/2014 at 21:33, Whispering_Jack said:

    It's interesting to see that McCartin kicked 7 goals and Petracca 5 for their respective TAC Cup sides yesterday. Both made their teams' best player list in their first games back after the Under 18 championships. Goddard was among the best for the Geelong Falcons too.

    Yes, we did well with the Tyson/Pick 9 deal but I'm wondering why so many people are quick to shun the potential top five picks when we're crying out for star quality players?

    Despite the examples of the odd failure here and there, the stats show that you're more likely to pick up an elite player with a top 10 pick than with picks 11 to 20.

    If we trade out of a top 3 or 4 pick this time it's going to have to be a super deal as far as I'm concerned.

    Jack I think this is more about is there clear top end talent that will be elite this year? I expect McCartin will go number 1 and even he did not look a sure thing. If in an even top 20 we think we can balance getting players we rate highly later and bring in players from other clubs and trade down then we should look at this. I hope that Petracca, McCartin and others have cracking ends to the year and others drive up their standing similar to McRae and Bontempelli in previous years because if nothing else it will drive up what clubs are willing to give to attain them.

    Edited by big_red_fire_engine

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      On 13/07/2014 at 00:13, beelzebub said:

    I disagree rjay.

    It presumes there are no decent kids up to say pick 25. This is a flat draft by many accounts.

    Im in building and we would concern ourselves more with getting the house fixed up and right before worrying about extensions etc.

    If you want the likes of Hogan Salem Mac to stick around get them some good workmanlike team mates.

    Edit. I will agree that weve made some "wrong" picks and that hasnt helped. Just about every one was considered ELITE..I think :rolleyes:

    No it doesn't and I think there are but we have given away a lot of our picks in this area over the last 3 years. Clark, Dawes, Vince and Tyson all cost us picks in the late teens early 20's and most overlook this. There is a guy called Dean Gore that I really rate on one viewing (I'm going to go back and look at some of his other games) and he is not rated in the top 20 of the so called experts.

    Look at the Doggies list now, they have invested heavily in the draft and will reap the rewards. We are coming from a long way back and needed to get some experience and leadership into the club. Thank goodness we got Cross and I think Vince has been a good get but we really still lack in young top end talent.

    I like Tyson, Viney is a beauty, Salem has promise but a long, long way to go and of course Hogan. I don't see anyone else knocking the door down yet. JKH is highly over rated on output at this stage and is no guarantee to make it, Toumpas is to date a disappointment, Kent shows glimpses but really needs to get a lot more footy at the moment he shows less than Tapscott did at a similar stage of his career, Tommy Mc has a lot of flaws in his game but has a good go at it.

    We do need top end talent, the right top end talent and we need balance in our drafting approach. If we give away all our top end picks this year it will be to make us competitive in the next few years and everyone will say what a genius Roos is but it will never win us that elusive flag and will put us in an even worse position in 4 to 5 years.

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