2013 realistic expectations

[Weedster 174]

If things go to plan, and we play some good footy i don't see why we can't get on top of teams like north, carlton, essendon, richmond, dogs and lions. 3 big fwds (clarke dawes and pederson) will make a hell of a difference (while clarke was injured there were many games where we had more inside 50's than the other team, just no one to kick it to). The other changes around the ground should also make the world of difference.

Yes. 2012 was unacceptable on every level. We underperformed pure and simple - after going in with guarded optimism and were served up crap. No more. There is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't have the same aspurations as the teams you have mentioned.

[Guest]

I've used this analogy before and I will use it again until it is hammered home. The village needed to be burnt down in order to save it. Neeldy needed to introduce accountability and discipline to the group. Home truths needed to be told. Have a look at the undermining of the coach at the start of the year and tell me that the tail wasn't wagging the dog prior to his arrival. Look at the blokes the club recruited and why they were recruited and tell me that there wasn't a deficiency of leadership and a cancer eating away at the soul of the team. Some might say that he should have moved on the arsehats who were reinforcing low standards upon his arrival. It appears that he gave them enough rope to hang themselves with. They were told what was expected, they didn't like that and cracked the sulks. Notice how no-one on the board was ever upset with Needly? It was always outside agitators who were being leaked to by players that were undermining the coach.

That being said, Neeldy needs to start delivering this year. I am giving him less time than I did with Bailey because like most of us, I am sick of the 'patience' argument. He now has a decent spread of age. Excuse time is over. Next year, we need 8-10 wins or serious questions need be asked.

[Damo 3,373]

We now have many more players that are accountable and the coaching staff are trying to put in place systems to stop us from being thrashed and to make us harder to play against. We know this.

We have new youngsters that are unproven but plenty of experienced players offloaded or swapped for low picks (except Dawes) to stop the collective dropping of heads. We don't have new guns ready to rock in 2013.

Those that support Neeld do him no favors by giving high game pass marks. My determination of success next year will take opposition into consideration as well as not being thrashed. That's the biggie for me. We aren't the only team expecting to improve.

I expect to improve to 12 wins in 2014. Being competitive in the last quarter is what I'm looking for in 2013. 7 wins.

[Guest]

We now have many more players that are accountable and the coaching staff are trying to put in place systems to stop us from being thrashed and to make us harder to play against. We know this.

We have new youngsters that are unproven but plenty of experienced players offloaded or swapped for low picks (except Dawes) to stop the collective dropping of heads. We don't have new guns ready to rock in 2013.

Those that support Neeld do him no favors by giving high game pass marks. My determination of success next year will take opposition into consideration as well as not being thrashed. That's the biggie for me. We aren't the only team expecting to improve.

I expect to improve to 12 wins in 2014. Being competitive in the last quarter is what I'm looking for in 2013. 7 wins.

I think you are setting your sights a little low. With the draw we have we should be aiming higher than 7 wins. Not much higher mind you, but a little higher.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Franky given the friendly draw this year if we can't extract 6-7 wins out of playing GWS, GC, BL and WB and possibly another 1 or 2 elsewhere then the year needs to be up for examination. 2014 will have to indeed a cracker!

[rpfc 28,734]

Yes, we will be making huge decisions of our future on whether we 'turn up on the day' in some pretty crappy games...

Hooray...

[Hannibal 5,814]

I need to add:

In many ways the single most important yardstick to judge Neeld is the individual improvement of players in 2013. We didn't have very many young players improve in his first year for varying reasons. I hope and expect this to change and it's crucial when analsying Neeld's performance.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

No they didn't, West Coast did.

I'll disagree, Geelongs game plan under Bomber was set around run and carry through the middle out of defence with the likes of Wojo, Mackie, Enright etc Backing themselves in and taking the game on, using there foot skills to hit up leading targets like Mooney. This is what Bailey IMO tired to emulate. problems was Melb didnt have the skills to execute it.

[btdemon 482]

Good post H_T and yes we are still in the youngest quartile for age and experience. But that only tells part of the story because things like the talent and list balance can have a significant impact. I've said repeatedly that it's our 2 - 5 year experienced players where the major improvement can come from. Also important is the age and experience of your best (say) 25.

Bailey got his results being in the bottom 2 or 3 of age and experience and it's why I think his achievements are underrated and his vilification is so unwarranted. What I think is also significantly underrated is the loss of our leaders like Bruce, Junior, Green, Davey and this year Rivers and Moloney. They weren't much good but they were better than talented 2 and 3 year kids.

It's interesting to look at how Neeld matured during last year. Post Brissy he was spitting chips at the players calling them "them" and publicly scorning them. Toward the end of the year he'd jumped on board the "age" and "experience" train and could find positives in the most insipid of performances. That was so much better.

Did he get off the 'reality bus' in favour of the 'age and experience' train. Hopefully he will get to the desired destination.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

in terms of changes to our playing 22, it is hard to argue we have made much inroads with quality or experience

departed players with games played last year

Moloney, Brent 15
Green, Brad 13
Rivers, Jared 22
Martin, Stefan 7
Morton, Cale 9
Gysberts, Jordan 1
Matthew Bate, 12
Ricky Petterd, 4
Jamie Bennell, 6
Liam Jurrah 1
Lucas Cook 0
Jai Sheahan, 0
Leigh Williams 0
Kelvin Lawrence 0
Clint Bartram 8

so what it really boils down to is that we will see Moloney, Green, Rivers and Bate replaced with combinations of Pederson, Dawes, Rodan, Byrnes, Viney and Toumpas. By my assessment it doesn't promise a huge improvement on paper.. and this is a side who lost their last two games by 10 goals and really only put in one quality performance for the year. I hate to say it but I think anyone expecting anything close to finals is kidding themselves

[Hannibal 5,814]

in terms of changes to our playing 22, it is hard to argue we have made much inroads with quality or experience

so what it really boils down to is that we will see Moloney, Green, Rivers and Bate replaced with combinations of Pederson, Dawes, Rodan, Byrnes, Viney and Toumpas. By my assessment it doesn't promise a huge improvement on paper.. and this is a side who lost their last two games by 10 goals and really only put in one quality performance for the year. I hate to say it but I think anyone expecting anything close to finals is kidding themselves

What do you think the bolded players added last year ? Show me a consistently effective forward ? Show me an effective mid ?

Pedersen and Dawes immediately make us a better structured forward-line to help Clark. I think most supporters underrate how effective Pedersen's role will be. Byrnes may not be the best small forward in the league, but he's twice kicked 30+ goals in his career and is miles better than anything we previously had, which is nothing. Another improvement there.

Viney is a ready made player and Toumpas comes in at 19 with the type of midfield class clubs salivate over. And he's played against men for two years. I also expect Kent to play quite a lot of footy. His body is already strong enough to compete.

Who knows how Matt Jones and Terlich will fit in. Jones is tall, quick and has nice skills. Time will tell.

Even the overall fitness levels will make a significant difference.

It's amazing the difference that a couple of players can have on a group. Judd comes in and a second year gun young mid in Murphy helps take Carlton from 4-10 wins. What impact has Gaff and Darling already had on West Coast. The same for Thomas and Pendlebury in their early years at Collingwood. And more recently Sidebottom and Beams.

With the right quality the mix doesn't need to change much to have a major effect. Ultimately you'll please yourself and assume the worst, and who can blame you. I take note of a vibe and energy at training that I haven't seen for years. I enjoyed my ninth session this morning - even though it was light.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Ben-Hur

[Slartibartfast 17,518]

There's so much shallow thought from posters like Fan and Timd I'm genuinely surprised.

Yes Ben, shallow maybe. But in the end footy is about improving against your opposition and simply/(shallow) "winning". I'm not really interested any more in how good our culture is, whether players were injured, whether we have improvement in our young guns with potential or whether we understand our game plan. I want to win and I think that is how I'll judge us this year. I'll leave the in depth stuff to you and I think you're input so far this season is terrific, I hope it's matched by the team.

I'll also allow others to pontificate about how Toumpas, Viney and Kent may go, ponder the benefits of Strauss v Terlick, try and pick our most likely to improve and guess about the impact 3 players who were basically VFL standard last year will have.

Put shallowly, after 6 years of crud I'd like to think we can win more games in 2013 than we did in 2010. Is that unreasonable?

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Yes - it possibly is unreasonable Fan. In 2010, we were 3 years into walking down the corridor of a train going in the wrong direction.

It's only year 2 in 2013 with the current regime.

And, in that time, the other trains are far further advanced down the track in the correct direction than we are. Not that easy to turn the train around and then catch up to the others in 365 days when all other trains are also going flat out.

Don't know why I'm using train analogies - perhaps I just like the original Dietrich Bonhoeffer quote.

[Hannibal 5,814]

Yes Ben, shallow maybe. But in the end footy is about improving against your opposition and simply/(shallow) "winning". I'm not really interested any more in how good our culture is, whether players were injured, whether we have improvement in our young guns with potential or whether we understand our game plan. I want to win and I think that is how I'll judge us this year.

Put shallowly, after 6 years of crud I'd like to think we can win more games in 2013 than we did in 2010. Is that unreasonable?

I understand. Ultimately every coach is judged by the W and L columns. It's the lot of a coach. But it's too simplistic.

Look at these names: Ablett, Bartel, Ling, Scarlett, Stevie J, Milburn, Chapman, Kelly, Corey, Enright, Rooke, Hunt, Mooney, Wojo, Harley, King, Graham, Riccardi, Sanderson, Lord.

That's a pretty handy group of 20 players. Sixteen are premiership players and belong to one of the great eras of all time. In 2003, Bomber Thompson's fourth year, they won only 7 games and finished 12 of 16. Their list consisted of those 20 players. As a side they were still developing. The following year they started to realise their talent and jumped to 15 wins and top 4.

I think in Neeld's second year you still need to have some patience. Afterall, you were patient in Bailey's 4th. But like you, I want to see players develop and the team gel. They're non-negotiables.

Also, you mentioned "VFL standard players", while Dawes isn't a world beater, I've seen enough to know that he can play. Ditto Byrnes, and Pedersen. If I asked whether you'd happily take Richards, Josh Kennedy, Mattner, or McGlynn I dare say I'd know the answer. The club has identified players it believes can play a valuable role for the team and that's a valuable proposition if you can get it right. Richmond did similarly well with Maric, Houli and Grigg, who have all at some stage been "VFL standard players".

Simply saying "I want more wins than 2010 is that unrealistic ?" is not quite the analysis you used to give to the game. But then, you loved Bailey.

[timD 994]

I understand. Ultimately every coach is judged by the W and L columns. It's the lot of a coach. But it's too simplistic.

Look at these names: Ablett, Bartel, Ling, Scarlett, Stevie J, Milburn, Chapman, Kelly, Corey, Enright, Rooke, Hunt, Mooney, Wojo, Harley, King, Graham, Riccardi, Sanderson, Lord.

That's a pretty handy group of 20 players. Sixteen are premiership players and belong to one of the great eras of all time. In 2003, Bomber Thompson's fourth year, they won only 7 games and finished 12 of 16. Their list consisted of those 20 players. As a side they were still developing. The following year they started to realise their talent and jumped to 15 wins and top 4.

I think in Neeld's second year you still need to have some patience. Afterall, you were patient in Bailey's 4th. But like you, I want to see players develop and the team gel. They're non-negotiables.

Also, you mentioned "VFL standard players", while Dawes isn't a world beater, I've seen enough to know that he can play. Ditto Byrnes, and Pedersen. If I asked whether you'd happily take Richards, Josh Kennedy, Mattner, or McGlynn I dare say I'd know the answer. The club has identified players it believes can play a valuable role for the team and that's a valuable proposition if you can get it right. Richmond did similarly well with Maric, Houli and Grigg, who have all at some stage been "VFL standard players".

Simply saying "I want more wins than 2010 is that unrealistic ?" is not quite the analysis you used to give to the game. But then, you loved Bailey.

Hardly shallow. Perhaps I've not explained it clearly.

Neeld had a terrible year and the team was a disgrace. There are many, many factors behind this and neeld can only bare a relatively small portion of responsibility. Now, Neeld needs to show an improvement in team performance that is marked this year. Why - because this is his team and it is far more advanced now than Bailey's bunch. Neeld has a lot more resources behind him and he's had two preseasons. You pointed out that Hird had the bombers playing effective defensive footy after one preseason. Let's see if neeld can do it after two.

Posters can make all the blue-sky statements all they like about the team and improvement. I've made them; I've believed them. I think the only reliable metric is wins. It is lagging indicator of improvement but at least it is an actual indicator - albeit with some weaknesses. Now, in a year with an easy draw, Neeld need to show marked improvement measured in wins - not in 'gelling', not in quarters, but in something that is meaningful. Lots of clubs show some good stuff; only a win actually shows an ability to play better than another team. Lots of players show moments of improvements; only 'wins' actually captures sustained, meaningful improvement.

Wins count - both in number and quality. I think that no one would argue that beating interstate clubs at the G is much of an achievement but at least Bailey could. Neeld can barely do that yet. So much patience is required for him and his whole coaching team...but we still need standards and my preferred one is if we won or not (and quality of performance). Everything else is so open to bias and delusion and I don't think it's worth much.

And don't get me wrong about Neeld; my gut says he is the man. I like him, how is comes across, how he started to mature, how he is blunt with players. I'm all with Ron Burgundy on this one. BUT, I am all too aware that gut instinct is a very fallible measure. We need standards, we need reliable, meaningful standards and so far the talk about 'youngsters getting better' and 'gelling' and team cohesion sounds all too much like the "the vibe". Bailey fed us the same stuff. And for periods it appeared that it was there...or at least on the way. That fell apart and posters only recognised it when the quality of wins and losses was really examined.

Beating bailey's win/loss in 2010 is arbitrary, but it is a damn sight cleaner and reliable than 'do the players gel'. And ultimately, if the wins are not going up, then we have legitimate reason to question the coach.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Viney is a ready made player and Toumpas comes in at 19 with the type of midfield class clubs salivate over. And he's played against men for two years. I also expect Kent to play quite a lot of footy. His body is already strong enough to compete.

Who knows how Matt Jones and Terlich will fit in. Jones is tall, quick and has nice skills. Time will tell.

Even the overall fitness levels will make a significant difference.

It's amazing the difference that a couple of players can have on a group. Judd comes in and a second year gun young mid in Murphy helps take Carlton from 4-10 wins. What impact has Gaff and Darling already had on West Coast. The same for Thomas and Pendlebury in their early years at Collingwood. And more recently Sidebottom and Beams.

With the right quality the mix doesn't need to change much to have a major effect. Ultimately you'll please yourself and assume the worst, and who can blame you. I take note of a vibe and energy at training that I haven't seen for years. I enjoyed my ninth session this morning - even though it was light.

you or anyone else cannot allow themselves to think that Viney or Toumpas will have any real impact- here's a little fact for you, in the last ten drafts we have enjoyed the opportunity to draft sylvia, mclean, morton, watts, scully and trengove all from the top 5 of the draft.. not one of them made a signifigant impact on gameday in their first year (truth be told none of them have yet ever lived lived up to their draft pick position regardless of experience) so expecting these two new kids to do so is just plain foolish.

i don't really need to respond to your hopes that a couple of mature age recruits taken in the 50s of the draft will make any difference

'overall fitness levels' please? every club every year posts their standard 'boys are flying' crap. I agree it all sounds great in the preseason but weve heard it a million times

you're not really mentioning Judd? yes Carlton pinched a player that is regarded as an all-time champion in his prime, made him captain, of course that made a difference. If you think anyone we have procured this draft/trade period is going to have anywhere near that impact, i have a bridge i can sell you.

you've used the word 'vibe' and i attribute as much weight to that as i did when denis denuto said it

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

That's a pretty handy group of 20 players. Sixteen are premiership players and belong to one of the great eras of all time. In 2003, Bomber Thompson's fourth year, they won only 7 games and finished 12 of 16. Their list consisted of those 20 players. As a side they were still developing. The following year they started to realise their talent and jumped to 15 wins and top 4.

yeah but that's what everyone said in the equivalent thread in 2009, just because it happened for the cats really has nothing to do with us

[Hannibal 5,814]

you or anyone else cannot allow themselves to think that Viney or Toumpas will have any real impact- here's a little fact for you, in the last ten drafts we have enjoyed the opportunity to draft sylvia, mclean, morton, watts, scully and trengove all from the top 5 of the draft.. not one of them made a signifigant impact on gameday in their first year (truth be told none of them have yet ever lived lived up to their draft pick position regardless of experience) so expecting these two new kids to do so is just plain foolish.

i don't really need to respond to your hopes that a couple of mature age recruits taken in the 50s of the draft will make any difference

'overall fitness levels' please? every club every year posts their standard 'boys are flying' crap. I agree it all sounds great in the preseason but weve heard it a million times

you're not really mentioning Judd? yes Carlton pinched a player that is regarded as an all-time champion in his prime, made him captain, of course that made a difference. If you think anyone we have procured this draft/trade period is going to have anywhere near that impact, i have a bridge i can sell you.

you've used the word 'vibe' and i attribute as much weight to that as i did when denis denuto said it

Please yourself. Nobody gives a toss about what you, or I think.

I don't expect a huge impact from Toumpas, or Viney next year, but I have no doubt that by their second years they'll impact significantly and next year they can make a "real" one. The fact that you equate Viney with Morton, Watts, etc, is telling. They're all just names on a bit of paper to you. Everything is a pipedream until proven otherwise. As a supporter you're damaged goods. You'll not have faith in anything. It hurts too much to be constantly let down. You disbelieve until there's evidence to the contrary. You lack vision, so history becomes your crutch. Viney is a better player than his former Oakleigh teammate Toby Greene and how did he go for GWS in 2012 ?

Judd was just an example of how the dynamic of a side can change quickly with one player. A concept not easy for you to grasp. Clearly no-one was saying Chris Judd was in our midst.

And no, we didn't state that we were "flying" last year. It was made clear how far behind we were. Yet you say "everyone" says the opposite. Where were you last year when the cold hard truth was awakening ?

You say that you don't need to respond to mature age recruits taken in the 50's. Duigan will be elevated to Carlton's LG this year. He's been a great mature age recruit from SA. Puopolo the same at Hawthorn. How's Ian Callinan going for Adelaide ? Or Steven Morris at Richmond ? It's easy to be dismissive. You excel at it. You lack vision or any depth of thought.

And I read where you think training reports are a waste of time, but I bet you read each and every one. It's a waste of time trying to give you any insight.

[Hannibal 5,814]

yeah but that's what everyone said in the equivalent thread in 2009, just because it happened for the cats really has nothing to do with us

Where did I equate us to the Cats ? I'm saying that a coach shouldn't be definitively judged after two years.

Are there worse comprehension skills around here ?

[Hannibal 5,814]

SNIP

I don't disagree with those sentiments and have expressed similar expectations.

[Slartibartfast 17,518]

But then, you loved Bailey.

He sacrificed his coaching career for the Club. He may not have made it anyway but he certainly didn't give it his best shot and put the club first. Blind Freddie could see that. And yes, I admire him enormously for that.

I'll also not criticise him here beyond saying that I agreed with his termination (although the manner of it was appalling and IMO is one of our darkest moments - so poor and so easily avoided which would have voided the tanking inquiry). I know him and he's a good person and whatever insights I have certainly don't need to be aired in a public forum. My loyalty to him goes far beyond "calling it as I see it" at D'land. If that casts me in a bad light, fine.

[Slartibartfast 17,518]

As a supporter you're damaged goods. You'll not have faith in anything. It hurts too much to be constantly let down. You disbelieve until there's evidence to the contrary. You lack vision, so history becomes your crutch.

There was a bloke on Demonology once who stated he'd lost his passion for the club. Caused quite a stir.

[Hannibal 5,814]

He sacrificed his coaching career for the Club. He may not have made it anyway but he certainly didn't give it his best shot and put the club first. Blind Freddie could see that. And yes, I admire him enormously for that.

I'll also not criticise him here beyond saying that I agreed with his termination (although the manner of it was appalling and IMO is one of our darkest moments - so poor and so easily avoided which would have voided the tanking inquiry). I know him and he's a good person and whatever insights I have certainly don't need to be aired in a public forum. My loyalty to him goes far beyond "calling it as I see it" at D'land. If that casts me in a bad light, fine.

This was all you responded to ? It may not cast you in a "bad light", but it certainly renders your observations to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'll accept that you agree with everything else.

[Slartibartfast 17,518]

This was all you responded to ? It may not cast you in a "bad light", but it certainly renders your observations to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'll accept that you agree with everything else.

I responded to the put down.

I do agree with everything else but the rider is that I've seen other clubs do things particularly well but I've rarely seen us do things particularly well.

You can forecast all you like but we'll actually have a pretty good idea by mid season. I'll wait and see.

Edit: the three VFL standard players are Rodan, Byrne and Pedersen. Dawes is clearly AFL. Of those Rodan and Byrne are close to the end of their careers and I'd be surprised if they had as good a careers at MFC as Richards, Kennedy and McGlynn.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Fan

[Hannibal 5,814]

Edit: the three VFL standard players are Rodan, Byrne and Pedersen. Dawes is clearly AFL. Of those Rodan and Byrne are close to the end of their careers and I'd be surprised if they had as good a careers at MFC as Richards, Kennedy and McGlynn.

I didn't include Rodan because I agree, but I can see Byrnes being handy if he can recapture his best form. He's young enough to.