WHERE THE SUNS WON'T SHINE by The Oracle

A neighbour at my work is the type of person who is commonly described as a "worry wart" (I believe someone around here might have even devised a clinical term for this very real psychological ailment). The bloke who will be named WW for legal reasons also happens to be a Melbourne supporter ("Ahah, that explains it", I hear you say!).

As sure as day follows night, whenever there's any news about the Demons, be it good or bad, WW is always the first to inform me of it always managing to spin things in a negative light so that the story ends up sounding like an absolute disaster.

During a game, if a Melbourne player suffers the slightest knock and happens to grimace a little in pain afterwards, WW will immediately diagnose the problem as a major injury before nervously announcing that he's gone for the year.

"Knee reco, I can tell. I knew this was going to happen!"

Even if the player in question gets up, has a dozen kicks for the rest of the game and walks off without the slightest hint of a limp, WW will continue to badger on about his impending collapse. He's even been know to check out various hospitals in the course of an evening after a game about Player X's medical condition.

If there's a hint of a rumour of wrongdoing by an AFL footballer, then WW immediately convinces himself that it's one of our players. If claims are made that an AFL club is in danger of going broke or is involved in a scandal, then he remarks that "it has to be us" and promptly breaks out into a cold sweat.

Throughout this week, he's been a nervous wreck. Not just because of the news that led Brent Moloney to be relieved (no pun intended) of the vice-captaincy which he regards as more calamitous than the bubonic plague, but because of who and where the Demons are playing this week.

What concerns WW is the prospect of Melbourne becoming the first AFL club to hit the wall against the Gold Coast Suns. He first announced his fears when the fixture was announced several months ago. In the past few days, that fear has turned into sheer panic.

To compound the issue, WW is ropeable that he won't be able to watch the game because, in its wisdom, Channel 7 has decided that even interstate clashes shall not be telecast live. I stupidly suggested that he should fly up to Brisbane for the game but then I remembered this worry wart's favourite TV show is Air Crash Disaster. He freaked out at the suggestion adding that if he managed to survive the flight, how would he get through another Brisbane flood?

So the moment of truth arrives on Sunday and, in WW's mind it's been reinforced by Melbourne's own inconsistent performances in the season to date. He reminds me that three games have passed and the team has yet to manage two good quarters in any of its games. To WW, that's not even a pass mark. It's a recipe for disaster.

Thankfully, his gloomy attitude isn't infectious and I'm looking forward to Sunday and the potential fields of gold that we can reap from the boys from the coast.

THE GAME Gold Coast v Melbourne at the Gabba Sunday 17 April 2011 at 2.10pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Gold Coast 0 wins Melbourne 0 wins

Gabba Gold Coast 0 wins Melbourne 0 wins

Since 2000 Gold Coast 0 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches McKenna 0 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7, 3.00 pm (1 hr delay)

Radio 3AW Triple M SEN ABC774

THE BETTING Gold Coast to win $4.90 Melbourne to win $1.18

THE TEAMS

GOLD COAST

Backs Nathan Bock Karmichael Hunt Seb Tape

Half backs Josh Toy Michael Coad Jarrod Harbrow

Centreline Michael Rischitelli Garry Ablett Matt Shaw

Half forwards Luke Russell Charlie Dixon Daniel Stanley

Forwards Josh Fraser Daniel Gorringe Brandon Matera

Followers Zac Smith Daniel Harris David Swallow

Interchange Jared Brennan, Trent McKenzie Dion Prestia Maverick Weller

Emergencies Hayden Jolly Jack Hutchins Alik Magin

In Josh Fraser Luke Russell Matt Shaw Josh Toy

Out Harley Bennell Campbell Brown (suspended) Nathan Krakouer Alik Magin

New Luke Russell (Burnie Dockers) Matt Shaw (Dandenong Stingrays)

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Luke Tapscott

Half backs Jack Trengove Colin Garland Jared Rivers

Centreline Rohan Bail Jack Grimes Jordan Gysberts

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Brad Green Austin Wonaeamirri

Forwards Aaron Davey Lynden Dunn Liam Jurrah

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Colin Sylvia

Interchange Nathan Jones Stef Martin Cale Morton Jack Watts

Emergencies Addam Maric Ricky Petterd James Strauss

NO CHANGE

HOME AWAY FROM HOME

I suppose it's a little bit cute to suggest that the Demons have an advantage in this game because they've won more games at the Gabba than the Suns but I happen to be correct. Melbourne won there as recently as Round 18 last year when it beat the Brisbane Lions in a pretty lacklustre game.

They've had a few wins thre in the past but, during the days when the Lions were dominant, it's fair to say the Gabba wasn't a particularly happy hunting ground for them. For their part, the Suns don't move into their new home at Carrara until mid season.

Theoretically, they don't have a home ground advantage here so this is the place where the Suns won't shine.

The Gold Coast came to Melbourne and took on the Bulldogs last weekend at Etihad and lost by only 71 points, an improvement of six goals over their debut against the Blues a week before. That gives them a combined losing margin over two weeks of 190 points, a result that was not expected after a reasonable showing in the NAB Cup matches.

Reality is now starting to bite into the new franchise. I fully expect Gary Ablett to star as he always does against Melbourne but he can't do it on his own and, for the next few weeks, he doesn't have strong man vice-captain Campbell Brown at his side protecting him against close sticking taggers. And while he has Michael Rischitelli there and abouts together with a handful of precocious young talents who will one day play their parts in a formidable midfield like the brilliant David Swallow and the smart Alik Magin (sorry, couldn't resist), he doesn't have the likes of Bartel, Joel Selwood, Enright, Corey, Ling, Kelly and a bucketload of others to share the responsibility in the midfield. Mind you, the Melbourne midfield is missing some prime movers in Tom Scully and Jordie McKenzie who might be light on for experience but their presence has been sorely missed so far this season and it looks like that situation will continue for a little while yet.

Actually, it's been a bad week for both clubs but, at least the Demons still have Brent Moloney will Campbell Brown won't be sighted in active duty on a playing field for four matches. That's a double whammy for the Gold Coast because his physical presence and know how is irreplaceable at the fledgling club and it will be missed even more so given the forecast of wet weather on Sunday. He would have been worth his weight in gold against a Melbourne team not known for its physicality.

Melbourne should be using this game as a springboard for resuscitating its 2011 season which really hasn't been at the level expected over the summer months. A victory will get it into the top eight and we can expect Brad Green and Aaron Davey together with the ruck strength of Mark Jamar and the bigger bodies of Moloney, Colin Sylvia, Nathan Jones and co to get them home. James Frawley has had two weeks to acclimatise back into the game after his pectoral muscle injury and now is the time for him to rise to the occasion. I even expect my friend WW to have a normal blood pressure reading by the tie the game ends.

Melbourne by 85 points

No change. (No outs as yet)

IN: Ricky Petterd, Addam Maric, James Strauss.

edit:

FF: Aaron Davey Lynden Dunn Liam Jurrah

HF: Jamie Bennell Brad Green Austin Wonaeamirri

C: Rohan Bail Jack Grimes Jordan Gysberts

HB: Jack Trengove Colin Garland Jared Rivers

FB: Clint Bartram James Frawley Luke Tapscott

FOLL: Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Colin Sylvia

INT from : Nathan Jones Ricky Petterd Cale Morton Addam Maric Stefan Martin Jack Watts James Strauss

INS for Gold Coast: Luke Russell, Hayden Jolly, Josh Fraser, Josh Toy, Matt Shaw, Jack Hutchins

OUTS: Nathan Krakeour, Harley Bennell, Campbell Brown (Suspension).

In - Ricky Bobbie, Maric, Strauss

Out - zip

Melbourne

B: Luke Tapscott, James Frawley, Clint Bartram

HB: Jared Rivers, Colin Garland, Jack Trengove

C: Jordan Gysberts, Jack Grimes, Rohan Bail

HF: Austin Wonaeamirri, Brad Green, Jamie Bennell

F: Liam Jurrah, Lynden Dunn, Aaron Davey

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia

I/C (from): Nathan Jones, Jack Watts, Cale Morton, Addam Maric, Ricky Petterd, Stef Martin, James Strauss

IN: Ricky Petterd, Addam Maric, James Strauss

OUT: -

GOLD COAST

B: N. Bock, K. Hunt, S. Tape

HB: J. Toy, M. Coad, J. Harbrow

C: M. Rischitelli, G. Ablett, M. Shaw

HF: L. Russell, C. Dixon, D. Stanley

F: J. Fraser, D. Gorringe, B. Matera

Foll: Z. Smith, D. Harris, D. Swallow

Int From: D. Prestia, Jar. Brennan, T. McKenzie, M. Weller, H. Jolly, J. Hutchins, A. Magin

I predict

In: Ricky

Out: Watts

Sub: Dunn

brad miller is an IN for Richmond this week, lol

I am certainly not blown away with Watts so far, but is dropping him the correct move for him or the club?

Dunn lucky to be named as a starter.

Jones and Martin are certainties for bench. The big qn is will Watts survive?

[

Interchange (from) Nathan Jones Addam Maric Stef Martin Cale Morton Ricky Petterd James Strauss Jack Watts

In Ricky Petterd

Out: Dunn

Jones and Martin are certainties for bench. The big qn is will Watts survive?

I'd say yes ... Petterd didn't exactly set the house on fire at Casey, and I would guess is there for insurance as much as anything. (Same with Strauss).

If Newton had been eligible, things might have been different, but as it is, I think Jack earns at least one more week. Could be good for him.

Dunn lucky to be named as a starter.

Jones and Martin are certainties for bench. The big qn is will Watts survive?

I realise that the extended bench is named alphabetically, but it doesn't look good.

If he's not in the starting 21, shouldn't make him sub or emergency - he'd be better getting a full game at CHF at Casey. I'm beginning to think it's time to stop playing him wing or HFF, he needs to be CHF from now on, at whatever level.

I predict

In: Ricky

Out: Watts

Sub: Dunn

I would be extremely disappointed if Watts was dropped for this game. This is the perfect game to play him against some younger players up forward and to get some confidence. This not the game to drop him from the senior side if that is even what the match committee are considering. Everyone tells me we should be in development mode this year and to not play him against the Suns goes completely against that. I am sure he will play.

Interestingly for the Suns two of their so called 'experienced' eight are out this week in Krakouer and Brown. Add Harley Bennell who has looked very slick at times this year and was a Top 3 draft pick, they're 3 decent outs for them...

I would be extremely disappointed if Watts was dropped for this game. This is the perfect game to play him against some younger players up forward and to get some confidence. This not the game to drop him from the senior side if that is even what the match committee are considering. Everyone tells me we should be in development mode this year and to not play him against the Suns goes completely against that. I am sure he will play.

I'd play him too, I just thought Bailey looked frustrated with him a bit last week.

Imagine the jungle noise if he doesn't perform well against kids though, don't think I could bare it.

Whatever happens, Petterd in please.

I would be extremely disappointed if Watts was dropped for this game. This is the perfect game to play him against some younger players up forward and to get some confidence. This not the game to drop him from the senior side if that is even what the match committee are considering. Everyone tells me we should be in development mode this year and to not play him against the Suns goes completely against that. I am sure he will play.

Agree.

I recon we drop Liam Jurrah, Jared Rivers and Maloney, so as to even it up a bit and build confidence in those players on the edge (Watts, Petterd, Maric and Strauss).

We may lose, but if we win those boys will have had to step up...

Actually, I have big hopes for the Jacks this week. I hope Watts lines up at CHF, I wouldn't mind them trying Grimes in the middle and Trengove should be placed where the action is as well.

Whatever happens, Petterd in please.

Replacing?

In: Petterd

Out: Dunn

Like for like and a player who has been dreadful gets the chop. Seems logical.

Actually, I have big hopes for the Jacks this week. I hope Watts lines up at CHF, I wouldn't mind them trying Grimes in the middle and Trengove should be placed where the action is as well.

Replacing?

Dunn, Morton or if need be, Watts. Petterd still needs developing too.

In: Petterd

Out: Dunn

Like for like and a player who has been dreadful gets the chop. Seems logical.

The last time Watts & Dunn had a few ordinary games, it was Dunn who was dropped and he kicked a bag at Casey the next week & was back in the week after & strung together some good games.

If one of them is to be dropped for Petterd, maybe it's Jack's turn.

The last time Watts & Dunn had a few ordinary games, it was Dunn who was dropped and he kicked a bag at Casey the next week & was back in the week after & strung together some good games.

If one of them is to be dropped for Petterd, maybe it's Jack's turn.

I'd still prefer it to be Dunn.

In: Petterd

Out: Dunn

Was Petterd any worse than Dunn in Round 2 anyway?

Would also like to see Strauss in, but there's no-one he can really replace.

I just don't wants to see Watts or Maric as the subs.

Big Stef & Jones should be in the 22, but its a tough call for the remainder... Warnock must be [censored] to be out again.

A couple of years ago I was in the Dunn camp. I defended the slirs and told those who listened that he would make it. last year, while convincing many that he would only convinced me that he wouldn't. His attack on the ball is not nearly strong enough for a player in his position. His supposed toughness is all good when it's jumper punching and words but when it comes to putting his body between himself and pain, well, it just doesn't happen. Compare this to his obvious replacement in Petterd and it's chalk and cheese. Both players possess similar talent but when it come to eyes on the ball and only the ball then I'll take Petterd every day of the week. he is fearless, reasonably talented with a strong mark overhead. In a team crying out for selfless acts of courage It's Petterd for mine.

His supposed toughness is all good when it's jumper punching and words but when it comes to putting his body between himself and pain, well, it just doesn't happen.

This. And it's not just that, his over-consciousness of getting hit causes him to spill easy marks at critical moments, even when he wasn't in any real danger. He's done this heaps of times in his career. Makes me grumpy.

As you say, Petterd is the polar opposite. Even when he's not in great form you know he'll have a dip. It's an easy choice for me.