CROSSING THE RUBICON by JVM

It might well be my imagination but I have this feeling that the Melbourne Football Club came close to crossing its Rubicon last week against the Sydney Swans. The young Demon side came from 25 points down in the shadow of three quarter time to almost steal what would have been a stunning victory. In years gone past, the team might well have capitulated in that situation leaving its fans lamenting at a possible eight or nine goal defeat. This time however, it clawed its way back into the game to hit the front with three minutes to go. From there the result could have gone either way and in the end it finished in perfect balance – 84 points each and the clubs shared the premiership points on offer.

There was a glaring statistic from the game and that was that the hard ball gets for the day were weighted heavily in favour of the young Demons. This means that their engine room was working overtime and I dare say perhaps if their skills, particularly in the final quarter, would have matched their endeavour, the result might have been a resounding Melbourne victory. Coaches, players and supporters can bemoan the close misses and lost opportunities but for now it’s water under the bridge and the Dees can take out of the result the fact that they are harder and tougher than they were last year and the year before.

Which is a good thing because this week the club meets its former merger partner, a team that has frequently monstered their lighter bodied opponents and imparted great misery. Over the past four seasons, Hawthorn has won on every occasion these teams have met. That counts for six AFL premiership games where the average winning margin is close to 50 points and three pre season matches, the last of which took place less than a month ago at Launceston. I know these games count for naught but the Demons dominated the first quarter of their recent stoush, allowed the Hawks to come back just before half time and were overrun in the last half. 

So what will it take for Melbourne to cross the Rubicon and overrun Hawthorn which has been the bane of Dean Bailey’s existence since he took over the club’s coaching mantle. His first day at the office saw the Hawks’ rolling zones, pace, run and total superiority cause destruction and havoc to the tune of a 104 point shellacking. The Hawks had a nightmare start to 2010 winning only one of its first seven matches but they were good enough to beat the Demons in round one last year by 56 points. In the return game, the margin was 21 points but it was enough to snuff out what little hope they had of making the finals. Of course, we moaned and groaned about the umpires and the loss of Aaron Davey but in the end they were just too strong and too good.

Despite being considered a top four proposition, Hawthorn has made a poor start to this season as well losing to Adelaide after holding a five goal lead. It went the other way to Melbourne which made up almost that deficit to at least pick up a couple of premiership points.  The Hawks won’t want to lose a second game and they have their twin towers poised as their major weapon to overcome the Demons. With James Frawley back after a stint out with a pectoral muscle tear and Colin Garland after a promising showing against Adam Goodes, there is likely to be great interest in these battles but I believe that Melbourne’s chances of winning will be dictated strongly by the ability of its midfield to win the hard ball. Can Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia and Nathan Jones overcome the Sam Mitchell’s, Brad Sewell’s and Jordan Lewises (all of them!)? And will there be enough delivery into the forward line for Laim Jurrah and Jack Watts to kick goals this week? If the answer is in the positive, then the club might well cross its Rubicon on Sunday.

THE GAME Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday 3 April 2011 at 4.40pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Hawthorn 78 wins Melbourne 74 wins

At MCG Hawthorn 37 wins Melbourne 35 wins

Since 2000 Hawthorn 12 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Clarkson 5 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 4.30pm (live)

RADIO ABC774 SEN TripleM 3AW

THE BETTING Hawthorn to win $1.42 Melbourne to win $2.85

LAST TIME THEY MET Hawthorn 15.9.99 defeated Melbourne 12.6.78 in Round 20, 2010, at the MCG

It was the last roll of the dice for the Demons who had to win the game to keep their slim hopes of making the finals alive. They led early, lost Aaron Davey in the second quarter and bravely and grimly held on in the face of some questionable umpiring. It was Luke Hodge with two goals early in the final quarter who created a wedge between the teams and though they tried hard, the Demons went down by 21 points in a fighting effort.

THE TEAMS 

HAWTHORN 

Backs Rick Ladson Stephen Gilham Benjamin Stratton

Half backs Grant Birchall Josh Gibson Cameron Bruce

Centreline Chance Bateman Sam Mitchell Shane Savage

Half forwards Clinton Young Lance Franklin Shaun Burgoyne

Forwards David Hale Jarryd Roughead Cyril Rioli

Followers Brent Renouf Luke Hodge Brad Sewell

Interchange Jordan Lewis Michael Osborne Liam Shiels Matt Suckling

Emergencies Xavier Ellis Brent Guerra Brendan Whitecross

In Luke Hodge

Out Brendan Whitecross

MELBOURNE 

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Jared Rivers 

Half backs Jack Grimes  Colin Garland Luke Tapscott  

Centreline Jamie Bennell Colin Sylvia Jack Trengove  

Half forwards Rohan Bail Lynden Dunn Liam Jurrah 

Forwards Aaron Davey Brad Green Jack Watts  

Followers Mark Jamar  Brent Moloney Nathan Jones

Interchange Neville Jetta Addam Maric Stef Martin Ricky Petterd 

Emergencies Joel Macdonald Jake Spencer Matthew Warnock

In James Frawley

Out Joel Macdonald 

Umpires Chamberlain Donlon Gleeson and Stewart

In a round where the number of "ins" will approach a record (thanks to Gold Coast having 22 "ins" for their first game), James Frawley is a highly significant inclusion for the Demons. With the possible exception of the first week of the pre season, Melbourne’s defence has looked like a ship without a rudder in the absence of All Australian Frawley. The players who have filled in have tried hard but they have been unable to impose the same sort of presence that Frawley did in his breakout season last year. The big question is whether a player who was injured in mid January and has not played a game in the interim, can come up against one of Hawthorn’s twin towers. Given the amount of time out and the potential lack of match fitness which comes with this, it will be a hard ask to pit Frawley against Franklin despite the fact that Frawley beat his man when they clashed late last year in what was one of the best duels of the season. Indeed, had the umpires not been so overly generous to the crack Hawthorn forward, he might have been reduced to a very ordinary performance on the day.

Bailey could well decide to give Colin Garland first dibs on Franklin (Garland did well on him back in round 9, 2008) and Frawley could take on Roughead in the circumstances but the Dees will also need to be wary in defence of David Hale who they also chased over trade week.

The danger players for Melbourne will be Brad Sewell who Melbourne almost snared in a trade deal that went terribly wrong a few years ago. Sewell has polled Brownlow votes in each of his past three matches against Melbourne while Sam Mitchell (38 disposals last week) is also a constant thorn in Melbourne’s side.

Then there is Cameron Bruce who will be the centre of interest given this is the first time he faces his old club. Along with retired captain James McDonald, Bruce was virtually the voice of the club over the past two years, talking up a team that was a very ordinary conveyance at the time. His task now is to suspend disbelief and form this supporter’s point of view, I look forward to him hitting some Demon targets for once.

Melbourne to win by 10 points.

Ins:

Melbourne: Warnock, Frawley & Spencer

Hawthorn: Ellis, Guerra & Hodge

Named Team

Melbourne

B: Jared Rivers, James Frawley, Clint Bartram

HB: Luke Tapscott, Colin Garland, Jack Grimes

C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Jamie Bennell

HF: Liam Jurrah, Lynden Dunn, Rohan Bail

F: Jack Watts, Brad Green, Aaron Davey

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones

I/C (from): Neville Jetta, Joel Macdonald, Addam Maric, Stef Martin, Ricky Petterd, Jake Spencer, Matthew Warnock

IN: Spencer, Warnock, Frawley

OUT: -

Final interchange to be: Jetta, Martin, Maric, Petterd.

Hopefully it's out McDonald, Maric as sub.

Chippa!!!!!

Final interchange to be: Jetta, Martin, Maric, Petterd.

Very likely I'd say.

Not a bad looking team!

Warnock named in case Frawley doesn't pass the test I assume.

Final interchange to be: Jetta, Martin, Maric, Petterd.

This is getting ugly I agree again who is the sub?

Jetta!!!!

Clarification: If the Sub is bought on 5 minutes into the first Q because of an injury, That player cannot be rotated and must stay on the ground for the entirety of the match (Barring Injury) or is the sub able to be rotated??

Given our 'mix' was fairly right last week, is it simply a case of

IN: Frawley OUT: MacDonald

Or will the presence of Buddy,Roughnuts and Hale as three talls up forward spare

MacDonald at the expense of a Jetta or Maric?

Given our 'mix' was fairly right last week, is it simply a case of

IN: Frawley OUT: MacDonald

Or will the presence of Buddy,Roughnuts and Hale as three talls up forward spare

MacDonald at the expense of a Jetta or Maric?

that's pretty much it

and then the question of who the sub is

i hope it's not ricky, we would have won if he'd been on all day last week

Clarification: If the Sub is bought on 5 minutes into the first Q because of an injury, That player cannot be rotated and must stay on the ground for thentirety of the match (Barring Injury) or is the sub able to be rotated??

Once the sub is on he becomes a 'normal' player. I saw Milburn on the bench during Fridays game after he was subbed in for Selwood.

This is a good team to play Hawthorn, we will have some bigger bodies aroung the football in Moloney, Sylvia, Bail, Jones with Jetta and Trengove strong enough as well. Good out side speed. I can't wait for Jurrah to play on Josh Gibson if we can get the footy to Jurrah he will carve Gibson up. Will Bruce go to Green if so striaght back to the goal line and kick 10 on him.

Hawthorn have been the team that has crushed us over the past 3 years, if the new leadership group wants to make a statement this is the game. I hate three clubs and Hawthorn are on top of the list. It started with Jim running accross the mark, then they destroyed us in a Grand Final, then the Merge(take over), more recently the 2008 & 2010 round 1 smashings and to top it off the current loud mouth President how like when he was Premier sold everything off he continued with Hawthorn selling to Tasmania.

We will win this game.

Will Bruce go to Green

that will be brilliant if it happens

Once the sub is on he becomes a 'normal' player. I saw Milburn on the bench during Fridays game after he was subbed in for Selwood.

Thanks Dave, i thought that was the case, but i don't trust that Rules Committee to get stuff right!!

No player would want to be a sub if they were not allowed off the ground!!

"Get Back On"

Clarification: If the Sub is bought on 5 minutes into the first Q because of an injury, That player cannot be rotated and must stay on the ground for the entirety of the match (Barring Injury) or is the sub able to be rotated??

Not sure if serious?

Not sure if serious?

It was a serious question, that until now i had not been able to find an answer?

Not a bad looking team!

Ha, Who's gonna take Brucey!

If he plays.

i think Maric will be omitted for Frawley, Jetta to be the sub and be told to run his butt off in the last quarter.

Maric just could not get into it last week, seems to struggle with the extra intensity a home and away game has compared the a pre season game

that will be brilliant if it happens

I'm seeing Green on Johnstone last year, or the year before that when he drove him into the turf on the wing after a huge chase.

Ha, Who's gonna take Brucey!

If he plays.

Changed my mind. Make it Tappy.

I pick Maric for sub. I think he'll end up there a couple of times this year anyway, why not now? Though maybe Jetta could play a sub role. He, like Bennell, is useful everywhere on the ground.

Speaking of Jetta. He may just be a player. Anyone else feel the same way? I keep seeing things I like...

Speaking of Jetta. He may just be a player. Anyone else feel the same way? I keep seeing things I like...

All our indigenous boys are going to rock...Just watch Bennell's goal again.

Jetta will keep improving i have no doubt.

i think Maric will be omitted for Frawley, Jetta to be the sub and be told to run his butt off in the last quarter.

Maric just could not get into it last week, seems to struggle with the extra intensity a home and away game has compared the a pre season game

I reckon it's just a confidence thing. He got to the ball a fair bit, but squibbed one or two times, and just tightened up when shooting for goal... ended up pulling a couple of kicks juuuust slightly. I really think if he hadn't handed the ball off to Green, and had his snap that hot the post gone through he would have improved heaps. I hope he takes the opportunity if he gets it. We do really need a proper crumber so Jurrah can concentrate on leading more.

I reckon it's just a confidence thing. He got to the ball a fair bit, but squibbed one or two times, and just tightened up when shooting for goal... ended up pulling a couple of kicks juuuust slightly. I really think if he hadn't handed the ball off to Green, and had his snap that hot the post gone through he would have improved heaps. I hope he takes the opportunity if he gets it. We do really need a proper crumber so Jurrah can concentrate on leading more.

Maric will be ok, it is a very competitive little forward line now. He just needs to slot a couple through crumbing a pack and he will go "Yes I belong here"

That was what i was hoping would occur for JW last sunday in the last Q when he had a shot. If JW had of kicked the winning goal last week, he would have bought the 'G alive.

All our kids are still growing.

I'm seeing Green on Johnstone last year, or the year before that when he drove him into the turf on the wing after a huge chase.

Changed my mind. Make it Tappy.

I pick Maric for sub. I think he'll end up there a couple of times this year anyway, why not now? Though maybe Jetta could play a sub role. He, like Bennell, is useful everywhere on the ground.

Speaking of Jetta. He may just be a player. Anyone else feel the same way? I keep seeing things I like...

I've never given up on him, thinking he'll make it. His intuite roving of the packs and his aggression for a little fella, displayed tenacity from a player who doesn't yet believe in himself. I think he's got a lot of upside to his game.