THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2010 by The Oracle

PRELUDE

The Draft Combine has been and gone, we've seen records broken, young players measured, tested and interviewed and most of us don't know what to make of it all but then it seems that everything to do with our national sport is calculated to confuse.

The past week has been a perfect example of the chaotic state of the game and it wasn't even meant to be part of the footy season. In the same week that our cricketers donned their whites for the first Test Match of the summer, we saw a new coach appointed, another complaining of burn out, a champion player defecting to a new club, others bailing out and asking to be traded and, oh yes, a premiership was won and lost.

And if you thought it was all over, done and dusted, then think again because next week, it's really down to business. The exchange period is about to start but, as we've been saying for some time on this site, it's different this year ... and it will be different next year.

In 2010, everything is dominated by the spectre of the Gold Coast Suns.

To demonstrate how great is the control the new franchise over the entire AFL trade and draft regime consider the coming week as heralding a new form of chess match played under the following conditions.

The newbies from the Sunshine State are the black and, as such, they have the advantage of making the opening move but that’s just the start of it all. The black begins with a board that has all sixteen black chess pieces intact: one king, one queen, two rooks, two knights, two bishops, and eight pawns.

The other sixteen clubs are represented by the white but, under the unusual rules of this particular game the white is at a disadvantage from the outset because there are only ten white pieces. The white starts with only three pawns and has no queen.

From the outset, the white king is under immediate attack (in "check") and there is little room to manoeuvre, to remove or defend it from attack on the next move. Well you might ask the question: how long will it take therefore before the black checkmates the white's king?

That's the reality of how this trade and draft is going to pan out and it’s too late to cry foul because the die was cast a long time ago.

Late last year a large chunk of the draft pool was removed and the Suns were given the option of taking twelve of the best 17 year olds born before the end of April 1992. Only one of these youngsters has removed himself from the equation and that was because he elected to take up a cricketing contract.

Then the Suns were given the opportunity to snare one out of contract player from each of the other clubs and a much more extensive salary cap limit, giving them the opportunity to pick their targets and enabling them to gain an upper hand in the process of bidding for their services.

The Gold Coast was even afforded the luxury of naming David Swallow as their number one draft selection for 2010 even before the Demons could name Tom Scully as their first pick for 2009. They've now preselected Harley Bennell and Sam Day as their next two draft picks of 2010 and they have another half dozen selections in the first round.

There are more steak knives in the hands of the Suns’ recruiting people. If they wish they can pick up and/or on trade a number of players from outside the AFL who have previously been in the system or nominated for the draft. What this means is that next year's Michael Barlow and James Podsiadly will most likely play for or be traded by the Gold Coast.

The cumulative effect of the trade and draft concessions available to the Suns has prompted one club chief to comment that the new franchise was "well-placed to dominate the next decade."

They may be well placed to dominate but, as the reigning premier proved yesterday, it's not enough to make good trades and draft wisely. There's plenty of work and development that needs to go into the players once they reach their football destination. In Collingwood's case, it's clear that the Magpies now have the leading edge in this area including the latest scientific developments that have managed to keep their list fit, healthy and primed for on field success.

Despite all that, the focus in the coming week will be on the Suns as they go into this week's trades carrying all of the aces, most of the pawns and an extra team and that should be sufficient to keep most of the other clubs in check.

And I’ll be there following the action once again in The Trading Chronicles...

[The Oracle will be back from time to time over the next eight days to unravel the dramas of the AFL's trade week as they happen ... ]

The action starts officially on Tuesday (although there's obviously a lot going on in the background) and here's the rundown:-

Tuesday October 5, 10am - Father/Son bidding meeting (Gold Coast Suns not entitled to participate). 

Three players have been nominated:-

* Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs)

* Mitch Wallis (Western Bulldogs)

* Luke Brennan (West Coast)

Tuesday October 5 - Monday October 11 - AFL exchange period 

(In addition to normally permitted exchanges, Gold Coast Suns may exchange players nominated as 17-year-olds in 2009 who have not accepted a contract offer, players nominated as rookies in 2009 who have not accepted a contract offer, the right to list a player who has previously nominated for the Draft under rule 35.5 and the right to list a priority zone selection from Queensland or the Northern Territory under rule 35.6).

Thursday October 7, 2pm - Gold Coast FC may include on its primary list up to one listed player from each club (or more than one if the other club agrees) provided the player is uncontracted for the 2011 season.

THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2010 by The Oracle

FISHING

Melbourne Football Club list manager Tim Harrington has been quoted as saying that he "believes this week's trade period might be quieter than expected."

For the first time in several years there are no big fish in the trade pool thanks to the successful extraction of Gary Ablett and the rest of the Gold Coast six through the uncontracted player rule.

The result of this is that we are left with no "headline" players up for grabs like a Chris Judd or a Shaun Burgoyne in previous years and therefore the common view among the recruiting fraternity is that we should expect a quiet week, certainly one that should see far less activity than the 2009 exchange period.

However, there are some unknown factors at play and most of these revolve around the new franchise. With nine selections in the first round, the big question is whether the Suns are willing to trade one or two of these for established players they were unable to snare because of their contract status?

Insiders maintain that the Gold Coast are concerned about their failure to attract a big name key forward. Without one or two readymade targets up forward, they are going to struggle. It would seem that Brad Miller is not in their sights while David Hale, thought by many as a likely Demon is also being mentioned as a possible returnee to his home state. Still, you never know what they might come up with before the week is out.

The other clubs will also be jostling to get an early pick in the draft so no doubt Gold Coast Recruiting Manager, Scott Clayton will be the man of the moment when the clubs meet this morning to open the first day of this first exchange period of the new era.

The Suns are also expected to be in the thick of things when it comes to dealing with players who have previously been in the system or nominated in previous drafts. The word is that they have already decided to snaffle names like Andrew Krakouer and Myles Sewell with the view of trading them off to other clubs for draft picks or players.

But the Suns might also decide to pick and keep players under this rule as well. Williamstown's Frosty Miller Medal winner Matt Little who was previously on Hawthorn's list to fill a forward post at the new club.

There is one reason for believing that the clubs might get more business done than Harrington expects. In past years when there has been a big fish or two in the trade mix, many other potential trades have been held off and even frustrated by the inability of clubs involved to close the big deals. In their absence, it might be easier for them to do business.

Speaking of business, the first business of the day today will be the father/son bidding which should see Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore on their way to the Doggies for their first two draft picks and Jacob Brennan to West Coast for a late selection.

After that it will be on for young and old and we can expect plenty of twists and turns over the coming week. I wonder whether this year we will see a club standing on its principles in the way the Saints did last year over Luke Ball. They refused an offer of pick 30 and Sharrod Wellingham last year and might have had Tyson Goldsack if they were listening at all to the Magpies.

It took a year for the message to hit them but on Saturday, Wellingham and Ball were among the best for the Magpies along with Darren Jolly who was taken from the Swans with a first round pick. The Saints got nothing from Collingwood and lost a favourite son in Ball. Among their own trades was Andrew Lovett who cost a first rounder but didn't make it to the NAB Cup and they ended up getting Jesse Smith from North Melbourne who cost nothing but then again, produced nothing either.

Such are the vagaries of the exchange period.

THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2010 by The Oracle

FISHING ...

Williamstown's Frosty Miller Medal winner Matt Little who was previously on Hawthorn's list to fill a forward post at the new club.

Tha Matt Little can play just a bit too. He's a good medium sized goalkicker.

Tha Matt Little can play just a bit too. He's a good medium sized goalkicker.

I know you didn't say it, but we don't need another medium size forward. I think we have too many to be honest.

Confirmed

- Wallis and Liberatore to the Dogs for their first two picks.

- Brennan to WCE for its last pick

Confirmed

- Wallis and Liberatore to the Dogs for their first two picks.

- Brennan to WCE for its last pick

last pick?? That wouldn't get you a cup of coffee

last pick?? That wouldn't get you a cup of coffee

I imagine that means he's nothing special, but seeing as he's the son of a club legend they are willing to take a punt on him rather than someone else.

I can see why the Saints didn't want to lose Ball because of what he offered the team. But surely pick 30 and Wellingham would have been better than nothing. They need pace.

I can see why the Saints didn't want to lose Ball because of what he offered the team. But surely pick 30 and Wellingham would have been better than nothing. They need pace.

Did they really get offered that?

I'm not sure that they did.

Did they really get offered that?

I'm not sure that they did.

According to this article in yesterday's Age they did - A message from the heart

It was reminded on Saturday night that St Kilda had refused an offer of pick 30 and Sharrod Wellingham last year for Ball, who in the event the club lost for nothing. Wellingham and Ball were among the game's best.

I don't think that is correct.

I think the Saints wanted pick 30 and Wellingham.

He's just the type of player they need. Otherwise they likely wouldn't have brought in Peake.

I don't think that is correct.

I think the Saints wanted pick 30 and Wellingham.

He's just the type of player they need. Otherwise they likely wouldn't have brought in Peake.

I don't know the exact scenario. I've gone on only what was provided in the article posted by The Oracle. If it's true, it is most puzzling. At what cost did Peake come to the Saints btw ?

I don't know the exact scenario. I've gone on only what was provided in the article posted by The Oracle. If it's true, it is most puzzling. At what cost did Peake come to the Saints btw ?

Playing 2 grand finals a man short for a start...

The saints gave up pick 48 in last years draft for Peake. At least it wasnt as bad as giving away their pick 16 for Lovett (ouch!)

The saints gave up pick 48 in last years draft for Peake. At least it wasnt as bad as giving away their pick 16 for Lovett (ouch!)

Lovett, Ball and Peake...Ouch.

In my opinion St.Kilda have lost 2 premierships due to bad trading.

If St.Kilda had of taken Cousins in 2008 they would have beaten Geelong last year.

If St.Kilda had of traded Ball and traded for someone else fast instead of Lovett they would have won this year.

Must be very hard to swallow.

In my opinion St.Kilda have lost 2 premierships due to bad trading.

If St.Kilda had of taken Cousins in 2008 they would have beaten Geelong last year.

If St.Kilda had of traded Ball and traded for someone else fast instead of Lovett they would have won this year.

Must be very hard to swallow.

Yep the Old Saints Disco club at linton street have blown 2 Grand Finals for sure, particularly the Ball situ, just so badly handled-nobody at that club will take the blame either.

Saints are finished for quite a while IMO. I still in a small way wish we had taken Luke Ball-He is a class Human Being, look at the way he conducted himself after winning on saturday. He had every right to go off his collective banana, but instead was so humble towards all his mates on both sides.

I was Happy for Him at least for the result. Ross Lyon you were wrong. B)

I think the Saints wanted pick 30 and Wellingham.

That's what the article says.

That's what the article says.

Had the Saints wanted pick 30 and Wellingham is different from refusing an offer of pick 30 and Wellingham for Ball isn't it ?

To clarify, the article said that the Saints knocked back the offer. The issue was that they wanted a pick in the low 20s at the time, not 30. In the event Wellingham and Goldsack (they could have had either) turned out better players than everyone (including Collingwood) thought. They were hawked around in the hope that they might score a lower pick. In the end, the Pies got their man for the pick only and the Saints got nothing. The irony is that after that, the Lovett drama and the failure of the Jesse Smith drafting, St. Kilda was left with insufficient depth to ensure a premiership win in the two grand finals it played this year.

To clarify, the article said that the Saints knocked back the offer. The issue was that they wanted a pick in the low 20s at the time, not 30. In the event Wellingham and Goldsack (they could have had either) turned out better players than everyone (including Collingwood) thought. They were hawked around in the hope that they might score a lower pick. In the end, the Pies got their man for the pick only and the Saints got nothing. The irony is that after that, the Lovett drama and the failure of the Jesse Smith drafting, St. Kilda was left with insufficient depth to ensure a premiership win in the two grand finals it played this year.

I do recall that they required a pick in the low 20's. And if IIRC they were trying to get this done to secure A.Everitt from the Bulldogs at one stage or even use the pick for Lovett instead of pick 16.

THE TRADING CHRONICLES by The Oracle

THE WAITING GAME

There was a time when the United States had a President who went by the name of "Tricky Dicky". These days, his namesake is involved in player management and looms large on the trade scene. Yesterday, Ricky Nixon who manages Andrejs Everitt, David Hale and Richard Tambling was quoted as saying that all three would have new homes by today.

He obviously knows a lot more than the rest of us but the picture coming from the first day's trading is that the week ahead is going to be a long drawn out saga. Indeed, it beggars belief that the powers that be decided it was appropriate to extend the period rather than to contract it into a shorter time frame.

The day predictably kicked off with the resolution of the father son selections and there were no surprises there.

The representatives of the various clubs then went into a series of meetings with their counterparts. There were numerous stories emanating from these meetings and these have been variously reported in the media. The upshot however, is that nothing has been resolved and no trade deals were consummated on day one.

The opening day of trades is like that. The clubs are circling on deals and sussing out what they can gain from the exchange period. Fresh from winning the flag, Collingwood led the way with their suggestion to Fremantle of former Docker Paul Medhurst as an exchange for Chris Tarrant. This was rather cute since Medhurst also announced yesterday that he had retired.

What will follow is another week of argy bargy between clubs but so far it's a matter of sitting and waiting for something to happen.

Completed Trades on Day One:

Nil.

First deal done - Patrick Veszpremi is a Doggie and Andrejs Everitt becomes the second member of his family to land at the Swans. Somebody threw in a late pick as well.

First deal done - Patrick Veszpremi is a Doggie and Andrejs Everitt becomes the second member of his family to land at the Swans. Somebody threw in a late pick as well.

Pick 73 I believe WJ.

By the way am I the only one that thinks we should through throw everything we can at Mitch Clark at this stage in time?

Pick 12, 32 and a player?