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2011 Premiership Odds

alpha33
in Melbourne Demons

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$3.75 Collingwood

$4.50 St. Kilda

$8.00 Geelong

$10.00 Western Bulldogs

$10.00 Hawthorn

$13.00 Carlton

$16.00 Fremantle

$16.00 Adelaide

$16.00 Sydney

$34.00 Melbourne

$34.00 North Melbourne

$67.00 Port Adelaide

$67.00 Essendon

$81.00 Richmond

$101.00 West Coast

$101.00 Brisbane

$151.00 Gold Coast

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    $3.75 Collingwood

    $4.50 St. Kilda

    $8.00 Geelong

    $10.00 Western Bulldogs

    $10.00 Hawthorn

    $13.00 Carlton

    $16.00 Fremantle

    $16.00 Adelaide

    $16.00 Sydney

    $34.00 Melbourne

    $34.00 North Melbourne

    $67.00 Port Adelaide

    $67.00 Essendon

    $81.00 Richmond

    $101.00 West Coast

    $101.00 Brisbane

    $151.00 Gold Coast

    somewhat generous towards the Pups and Cats, both of whom I expect to take a step back to the pack in '11. Pure delusion rearding Carlton ( must be sucker odds !! lol ) Hard to place alot of teams...not much between half a dozen or so.. 34 for us ? In light of Adelaides and Stdneys odd.. its a bit unkind.

    Better to revisit after team lists finalise after the trades and drafts.

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    • Author

    A few slight changes in the 2011 odds (including Melbourne firming slightly):-

    $3.50 Collingwood

    $4.00 St. Kilda

    $10.00 Hawthorn

    $10.00 Western Bulldogs

    $11.00 Geelong

    $14.00 Fremantle

    $16.00 Carlton

    $17.00 Adelaide

    $17.00 Sydney

    $26.00 Melbourne

    $34.00 North Melbourne

    $67.00 Port Adelaide

    $67.00 Essendon

    $81.00 Richmond

    $101.00 West Coast

    $101.00 Brisbane

    $151.00 Gold Coast

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    •  

    Adelaide 17 dollars?

    they wont make the 8 ,they need a massive rebuild with all the retirements

    Which they began half way through the season. Half a season too late.

    About right in this market.

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    lol @ Hawthorn. $10? Really. Argh.

    I'm surprised we're so short.

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    lol @ Hawthorn. $10? Really. Argh.

    I'm surprised we're so short.

    $26 is a ridiculous figure for us right now. Punters are way to sentimental, that's why i never bet.

    Look at yesterday..we are on the right track, but still so much work to do.

    The MFC still does not understand pressure over extended periods.

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    •  

    $26 is a ridiculous figure for us right now. Punters are way to sentimental, that's why i never bet.

    Look at yesterday..we are on the right track, but still so much work to do.

    The MFC still does not understand pressure over extended periods.

    We did draw and loose by 1 point to the 2010 Premiers if we could apply that same pressure to everygame we play in 2011 why can't we be there abouts. Collingwood have some average players playing great footy we in week out!

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    We did draw and loose by 1 point to the 2010 Premiers if we could apply that same pressure to everygame we play in 2011 why can't we be there abouts. Collingwood have some average players playing great footy we in week out!

    So....Melbourne and the Norf kangaroos both began at $34.

    Now we have come into $26. Jesus, the norf supporters must be ropable at this, waiting for the SEN calls. "Watt about us watt about us, we're just as talented as the mighty demons"

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    So....Melbourne and the Norf kangaroos both began at $34.

    Now we have come into $26. Jesus, the norf supporters must be ropable at this, waiting for the SEN calls. "Watt about us watt about us, we're just as talented as the mighty demons"

    Ha Ha yep i here ya!

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    We did draw and loose by 1 point to the 2010 Premiers if we could apply that same pressure to everygame we play in 2011 why can't we be there abouts. Collingwood have some average players playing great footy we in week out!

    You cannot be average when you play great footy Week in week out. Until we learn to play with weekly intensity $26 is way to short for the Demons.

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    So....Melbourne and the Norf kangaroos both began at $34.

    Now we have come into $26. Jesus, the norf supporters must be ropable at this, waiting for the SEN calls. "Watt about us watt about us, we're just as talented as the mighty demons"

    Would that phone call be coming from Mr. Scott?

    You cannot be average when you play great footy Week in week out. Until we learn to play with weekly intensity $26 is way to short for the Demons.

    Disagree.

    That list basically has us coming 10th next year, which seems about right/a bit low. 26-1 are still very long odds.

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    • 2 weeks later...

    $26 seems unrealistic odds for us to win the flag next year (more like $50 I would have thought), but I reckon $3.50 is probably a reasonable quote for us play finals. Any views?

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    $26 seems unrealistic odds for us to win the flag next year (more like $50 I would have thought), but I reckon $3.50 is probably a reasonable quote for us play finals. Any views?

    Agree- and I would have a little on the Dees making the 8..

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    $26 seems unrealistic odds for us to win the flag next year (more like $50 I would have thought), but I reckon $3.50 is probably a reasonable quote for us play finals. Any views?

    that i agree 100%. There is no chance of a flag in 2011, big a very big chance to make finals. I just do not think the young side just has what it takes... not just yet, maybe in another 24 months :)

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    $26 seems unrealistic odds for us to win the flag next year (more like $50 I would have thought), but I reckon $3.50 is probably a reasonable quote for us play finals. Any views?

    $50... I concur.

    $3.50 to end up in the Top 8... I'd say that's fairly optimistic. Think about it - Pies, Saints, Cats, Dogs, Carlton and Freo are all definite Top 6 sides. Hawks should be well in there (just don't lose 7 of your first 8 games again!!). That's a total of 7 teams. Now... Sydney would vie for the 8, North give themselves a shot, Adelaide feel they can rebound and rightly so, and Melbourne are in the same boat as North!! There's a total of 11 teams that could realistically make the 8.

    It's a real battle!!! Let's not forget that, barring injury, the Lions HAVE to be a decent shot! 12 teams. The competition has never been so even!!

    I'd put the Dees as around $8 for a Top 8 finish in 2011. IMO North and Sydney are ahead at the moment... but it COULD be a year that Melbourne closes the gap!

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    $50... I concur.

    $3.50 to end up in the Top 8... I'd say that's fairly optimistic. Think about it - Pies, Saints, Cats, Dogs, Carlton and Freo are all definite Top 6 sides. Hawks should be well in there (just don't lose 7 of your first 8 games again!!). That's a total of 7 teams. Now... Sydney would vie for the 8, North give themselves a shot, Adelaide feel they can rebound and rightly so, and Melbourne are in the same boat as North!! There's a total of 11 teams that could realistically make the 8.

    It's a real battle!!! Let's not forget that, barring injury, the Lions HAVE to be a decent shot! 12 teams. The competition has never been so even!!

    I'd put the Dees as around $8 for a Top 8 finish in 2011. IMO North and Sydney are ahead at the moment... but it COULD be a year that Melbourne loses the gap!

    I think you're overrating the Blues, Dockers and even the Cats and Dogs, i'd wager at least one of those misses the 8 altogether.

    So we won 8.5.. however:

    R2 1 point loss to Pies

    R7 4 point loss to Dogs

    R12 draw with Pies

    R16 11 points at Subi to Freo

    R22 11 point loss to North

    (I also think that R20 against Hawks we could have easily got up but i'll leave that out)

    All of those go the other way - which they all easily could have - that's 13 wins which would have had us equal 5th with Freo and Sydney on Premiership points.

    Jones, Bartram, Garland, Bail, Petterd, Frawley, Jurrah, Ozzie, Grimes, Morton, Bennell, McKenzie, Watts, Scully, Gysberts and Trengove are all regular starters when fit and they are all 22 or under. I would say only Moloney, Jamar, Davey, Bruce and Green have reached their ceiling as footballers, everyone else should get better. Then there is the unknown output of Blease, Tapscott, Strauss, Maric, Fitzy, Gawn, Spence, Jetta and whoever we get at pick 12

    I would say 12 wins/8th spot is extremely probable and if everything aligns we will be hosting a final at the G week one and going on to week 2

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    I think you're overrating the Blues, Dockers and even the Cats and Dogs, i'd wager at least one of those misses the 8 altogether.

    So we won 8.5.. however:

    R2 1 point loss to Pies

    R7 4 point loss to Dogs

    R12 draw with Pies

    R16 11 points at Subi to Freo

    R22 11 point loss to North

    (I also think that R20 against Hawks we could have easily got up but i'll leave that out)

    All of those go the other way - which they all easily could have - that's 13 wins which would have had us equal 5th with Freo and Sydney on Premiership points.

    Jones, Bartram, Garland, Bail, Petterd, Frawley, Jurrah, Ozzie, Grimes, Morton, Bennell, McKenzie, Watts, Scully, Gysberts and Trengove are all regular starters when fit and they are all 22 or under. I would say only Moloney, Jamar, Davey, Bruce and Green have reached their ceiling as footballers, everyone else should get better. Then there is the unknown output of Blease, Tapscott, Strauss, Maric, Fitzy, Gawn, Spence, Jetta and whoever we get at pick 12

    I would say 12 wins/8th spot is extremely probable and if everything aligns we will be hosting a final at the G week one and going on to week 2

    Well put.... BUT... $3.50 to be Top 8 suggests certainty. We are NOT certainties due to fitness levels and young age and whatnot. We always have key injuries - that's an issue. We need our best 22 out on the park REGULARLY. Hence, $8 odds suggests we are thereabouts.

    In 2012... $3.50 ;)

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    $3.50 means that we're 5:2 to make the eight.

    i.e. going by those odds, we'll make the finals 2 times out of 7 in a season such as next.

    Doesn't imply a certainty. Probably still a little bit under the odds - I'd have us at $4.

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    I wouldn't think 3.50 is certainies either 1.11 like collingwood probably is, is a different story.

    Where are people finding these odds? All the sites I usually use are only displaying the premiership for 2011 no final 8 coleman etc etc

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    And it has Sydney, North and Richmond all well, well over.

    But as the man once said "you can't eat value".

    In reality none of them can win it and even 1000-1 is useless.

    (except to lay later on Betfair maybe)

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