Comparing Lists - from Round 14,2009

Averages :22.38 :57.02 :23.68 :79.02 :23.88 :82.12

Note: Disregard the first line of players of each of the sides they don't exist. Troy West should be under the Geelong column. The averages are correct.

I hope the above is easy to read. I tried to insert as a table but had trouble. Basically the above identifies the Round 14 Teams then listed below the 22 of each team, are the remaining players on each list. Their respective ages and number of games played.

In Summary Total List: -

Avg. Age : Avg. Games

Melbourne : 22.38 : 57.02

St.Kilda : 23.68 : 79.02

Geelong : 23.88 : 82.12

The Round 14 Teams were: -

Melbourne : 23.64 : 81.50

St.Kilda : 25.09 : 106.95

Geelong : 25.27 : 118.54

Looking at both the St.Kilda & Geelong lists that played on Sunday you begin to appreciate how well they have done with their lists. For St.Kilda, the eldest being M.Gardiner at 30 and it's youngest B.McEvoy at 19. But generally there is a good mix of ages. Alot around 24-26. Geelong is similar in their group with a good mix of ages, as with StKilda, a good nucleus around 25-27, with a few younger and a few a little older. Both lists are in their prime. It's no wonder they are rivals and their lists have been talking points in the past, as to who has the most talented or best list of young players.

When I compare them to Melbourne, to see where Melbourne is at (based on current lists), I look at the following breakdown of when the players debuted: -

Ie. Geelong: -

Debuted

'97 - Milburn

'98 - Harley, Ottens, Scarlett

'99 - Wocjinski, Mooney

'00 - Chapman, Corey, Ling

'01 - Hunt, Enright

'02 - Ablett, Bartel, Johnson.D, Johnson.S, Kelly, Rooke

'03 - ---------------------------------------------------------

'04 - Byrnes, Mackie, Tenace

'05 - Blake, Egan, Lonergan

'06 - Gamble, Stokes

'07 - Hawkins, Selwood

'08 - Mumford, Taylor, West

'09 - Hogan

They had a good season in 2005, ironically when Mfc was up & running, before a lull in '06, then became a juggernaut after key leaders shook the place up in '07. Been a power in '08-'09 (since). There is also some form of pattern. Early on the KPP and defenders were recruited before the majority of midfielders, then since 2003 when there were no current players who debuted, they've managed to get hits with players for various positions. Obviously some players started at other clubs such as Harley, Ottens, Mooney.

Melbourne: -

'97 - McDonald, Robertson

'98 - ----------------------------------

'99 - ----------------------------------

'00 - Bruce, Green, Wheatley,Whelan

'01 - ----------------------------------

'02 - Miller

'03 - Moloney, Rivers, Jamar

'04 - Bell, Davey, PJ, McLean, Sylvia

'05 - ----------------------------------

'06 - Bartram, Bate, Dunn, Jones, Warnock

'07 - Buckley, Frawley, Garland, Newton, Petterd

'08 - Grimes, Maric, Martin, Morton, Wonaeamirri

'09 - Watts, Bennell, Jetta, Cheney, Jurrah

As you can see with Mfc there is a few holes in the recruiting it seems with no players in the current side who debut in the years '98, '99, '01 and '05. Note in '02 only one current player on the list debuted in Miller.

The last 4 years running 5 players in each of those years have debuted and are still on the list. Blease, Strauss & McNamara are still yet to debut. With more draftees due in at the end of the year. We could well have another 5+ debutants next year.

By my calculations looking at Geelongs list and how it has developed. From '00-'02 they snagged the majority of their current midfield and have topped up since.

We're in a different position, where the likes of 2004 midfielders in Davey, Sylvia & McLean might hold on until the next tilt, although they will be at their prime or late twenties. About where Lenny Hayes is now. This is not to say Moloney Rivers & Jamar have missed, although the clock will be ticking for them I would think. So our backline nucleus may be from the '06-'07-'08 debutants.

We have young forwards who are new and exciting. However, with new midfielders perhaps on the way, the turnover continues. But if we go by Geelong's timeline with their midfielder influx in '02. It took them 4 seasons including the ''02 season to advance. ie. 2005.

Based on that sort of logic and with a bit of luck with our current 'stars' in Grimes, Morton, Wonaeamirri, Sylvia, Davey & Bate and blokes already drafted but yet to see. The years 2012-13 and beyond seem pretty exciting to me.

edit: - Here is St.Kilda's debutants:

'96 - King

'97 - Gardiner, Hudgton

'98 - ---------------------

'99 - Hayes, Baker

'00 - Blake

'01 - Koschitzke, Milne, Riewoldt

'02 - Clarke X., Dal Santo, Maguire, Montagna

'03 - Ball, Fisher L, Goddard, Gram, Schneider

'04 - Clarke.R, Fisher S, Ray

'05 - Dawson, Dempster, Gwilt, McQualter

'06 - Begley, Gilbert

'07 - Armitage, Jones

'08 - Allen, Eddy, Geary, McEvoy

'09 - yet to debut any

As you can see at St.Kilda KPP & Ruckmen exist from '96-'00 vintage. Obviously Gardiner & King are recruits from other clubs. But both quality ruckmen. From years 2001-2003 the majority of there A graders have been recruited in this period mostly because of the clubs lack of success in this period. Priority picks and 1st round draft picks are most evident here and are much to say about a direct correlation to much of the teams success over the last few seasons. In this time period, whilst no longer on the list, other recruits such as Fraser Gehrig and Aaron Hamill also had a say in their results during this time. Since 2005-06 they've been able to gradually get some hits during this period and gradually strengthened their last 6-7 least effective players on the field so they haven't had to rely on the A graders week after week. This has strengthened their team overall under a new coach too it must be said in Ross Lyon. These types of players include Clinton Jones, S. Fisher, Gram, Schneider, Armitage, Gilbert and McQualter to name a few who have taken good strides in improvement.

edit: - Source for stats - AFL Website.

Edited July 12, 200915 yr by High Tower

You put some serious work in to that post, nice work!

I have to say that I can't see us winning more than we lose before 2012. I think a benchmark would be to make finals in 2012. I think 2012 we should be a finals side, winning a dozen. After that, we hope that we continue to develop. If we were pushing for 8th in 2011, then great, but I am not expecting Finals that soon. Hawthorn went 4 wins (2004), 5 wins (2005), 9 (2006), 13 and a winning final (2007), to 17 wins and 3 finals wins and a Premiership in 2008. I think we all agree that their rise was massively rapid.

I think it is reasonable to expect us to take a year or even two more than they did to get to the point where we are pushing for top 4 etc.. Anything beyond top 4, you just cannot predict. I think that from our current position and with out current and future list though, I would like us to have at least two seasons of being a consistent top 4 side, winning 14+ games, in 2013/14/15. Whether we achieve more than this, and whether we can sustain this, of course it is far too early to tell. Of course I (we) would love a GF and a victory in one, but we cannot 'expect' that from this far out. I think it is reasonable to expect us to be winning more than we lose within four years though. [2010 - 5-6 wins, 2011 - 8-10 wins, 2012 - 11-12 wins, 2013 - 13-14 wins etc. etc..]

Edited July 6, 200915 yr by Adelaide Demon

Love your work High Tower.

Love your work High Tower.

Second that. Another interesting analysis.

Great post...I would like to know what everyone expects from the team next year in terms of wins?

I hear people talking about finals and they expect nothing less but you just cant expect such a steep improvement.

2010

6 - 8 wins?

I think we will win about 3-4 this year so getting twice as many wins next year is pretty resonable?

Edited July 7, 200915 yr by Mr Morton

Great post...I would like to know what everyone expects from the team next year in terms of wins?

I hear people talking about finals and they expect nothing less but you just cant expect such a steep improvement.

2010

6 - 8 wins?

I think we will win about 3-4 this year so getting twice as many wins next year is a pretty resonable?

Thanks HT for top post. shows the importance of proper recruiting during the 3 years of Bailey's term. Hopefully MFC will ensure the long term by managing performances for rest of 2009 to make sure Scully and one more Rnd 1 pick added to our list for 2010. Agree this should ensure another 4 or 5 debutants for next year. Maybe finally MFC timing will be good as spread of players stocks will be thin for next few years due to Gold Coast and West Sydney!!

Good info HT but it would be better with columns to make it pleasant reading. List management is so important those lean years of not blooding anyone has certainly taken effect. You can also determine that the last 3 or so years recruiting for melbourne has been on the rise, its just getting games into them. quality picks this year for mids and maybe 1 forward will top it off before gold coast, but over the next few years our recruiting still needs to be very good. You going to do timeline for saints also?

Great post...I would like to know what everyone expects from the team next year in terms of wins?

I hear people talking about finals and they expect nothing less but you just cant expect such a steep improvement.

2010

6 - 8 wins?

I think we will win about 3-4 this year so getting twice as many wins next year is a pretty resonable?

Firstly, well done High Tower on the analysis. I have seen similar analysis of list agings elsewhere some time ago and its interesting when you compare clubs against each other.

Secondly, its likely that the average age and games experience of the MFC list next year will fall further as a number of senior players are retired at year end.

Thirdly, I think people talking about finals next year are in for a potential reality check. Given the list will still be so young it is possible that we could be in for a tough year next year. I hope we can reflect significant improvement next year but I would be surprised if there was a quantum leap next year that would involve finals action.

Firstly, well done High Tower on the analysis. I have seen similar analysis of list agings elsewhere some time ago and its interesting when you compare clubs against each other.

Secondly, its likely that the average age and games experience of the MFC list next year will fall further as a number of senior players are retired at year end.

Thirdly, I think people talking about finals next year are in for a potential reality check. Given the list will still be so young it is possible that we could be in for a tough year next year. I hope we can reflect significant improvement next year but I would be surprised if there was a quantum leap next year that would involve finals action.

Fantastic work HT, where do you get the time to do all this?

In terms of wins next year, I reckon 6-8 is reasonable, could be more if confidence gets up there and they get on a roll, but will fade out as young teams do later on in the year even if they do get up and running.

The pain will be that say we do only win 6-8 next year, would leave us about 12th and instead of pick 4ish, will be looking at about pick 10 I think it is, or even later with what the GC get. That number 4 pick could have been real quality and that possible extra match winner you need come time when we can really have a crack.

Good work HT.

Would like to see thins kind of thing more, its just a shame that inserting tables and similarly graphs/charts is quite difficult, sometimes impossible. I tried a while back to graph a few stats and post them but couldn't figure out a way to get the image posted. Might just be me but I can never get the attachment thing to work.

Great post HT.

It's always interesting comparing teams. Whelan was 2000 though.

Thanks for the replies everyone.

Good info HT but it would be better with columns to make it pleasant reading. List management is so important those lean years of not blooding anyone has certainly taken effect. You can also determine that the last 3 or so years recruiting for melbourne has been on the rise, its just getting games into them. quality picks this year for mids and maybe 1 forward will top it off before gold coast, but over the next few years our recruiting still needs to be very good. You going to do timeline for saints also?

Yes, I will continue to make it look easier - or more column like and I will put in StKilda's tonight. I needed more time, but sleep called.

where do you get the time to do all this?

I've always been looking at Melbourne's list, it's an ongoing interest I have..

Would like to see thins kind of thing more, its just a shame that inserting tables and similarly graphs/charts is quite difficult, sometimes impossible. I tried a while back to graph a few stats and post them but couldn't figure out a way to get the image posted. Might just be me but I can never get the attachment thing to work.

Sometimes stats and comparisons are the best way to paint a clearer picture of where a particular club is at. Also, what our club needs to strive for. I know posters such as deanox etc, just love going through the stats/percentages/averages etc..as do I. The numbers lay out the facts. Although injuries can cloud some of the statistical analysis - which is my next assignment, stay tuned.

I'd love to master the inserts of tables & graphs.The table above I have saved as an excel spreadsheet looks quite neat and nothing like was posted in terms of presentation. I was quite crapped off last night the way it presented, can anyone help me make it look more presentable?

Actually I have an idea.......I'll get back to you later on.

Edited July 7, 200915 yr by High Tower

Well done HT - love your work.

List management is something we clearly have not been good at in the past particularly when Daniher and CAC were there.

However, even good lists need luck. We have had quality teams in the past that were struck down due to injuries to key players such as O'Dwyer, Prymke, Schwarz, Glenn Lovett, Lyon and Tingay to name a few.

Even with a great list and great coaches you need a load of luck to win a premiership as well! The best thing though about our current position is that there is only one way to go.

Jesus Christ, HT?!

Well done.

The one thing, over other observations, is that it takes 5-7 years for good kids to regularly play at their highest level. For 2010-2012 this would mean that Jamar, McLean, Sylvia, Moloney Rivers, and Davey would shoulder the load with increased contributions from Bate, Jones, Warnock, Frawley, Petterd, and Garland, and an inclusion of a 'Joel Selwood' or two who progress quicker than the norm.

Is that enough to challenge? Probably not the flag, but certainly the finals.

2013-2015+ would see our real talent start to impose themselves on the team and the competition. The latter 6 I mentioned should be at or around their peak, and Jamar, Moloney, and Davey will be 29-31 years old, Rivers and Sylvia will be 28-30, and McLean will be 27-29.

A number of those will join a group reaching their peak that will consist of: Jurrah, Wonaeamirri, Grimes, Cheney, Morton, Jetta, Maric, Bennell, Strauss, Blease, and Watts. With 2016 and onwards seing the best of the coming 2009 draft.

This is where I see us chalenging for a flag, I wish I could fast forward to 2013 but I think the ride will be enjoyable so I'm holding off on making my time travel machine.

Some will see this crystal-ball-gazing as saying I think it will take us till 2013 to be competitive, that isn't true.

But there is a difference between competing for the finals and competing for the flag. 2010 - 2012; finals, and 2013 onwards; flag.

way to one up my little post high tower :-p

but seriously, great work a really interesting read.

Really interesting read and some great comparisons....cheers HT

Great analysis of stats HT. you make this place worth regular visits.

Great post HT.

It's always interesting comparing teams. Whelan was 2000 though.

I don't dispute that 45h, but the club website says R4, 1997: -

Player List

Edited July 7, 200915 yr by High Tower

The club is wrong.

Round 4 2000, against the Saints if memory serves...

Great list though, can you attach a file to the post? That way you could link to the document

Files cant be added to any post (that I'm aware of). However links to hosted documents should do the job.

Files cant be added to any post (that I'm aware of). However links to hosted documents should do the job.

Got your PM, thanks. I'll give it a go later after I update the OP with St.Kilda's past debutants over time.

I don't dispute that 45h, but the club website says R4, 1997: -

Player List

So you do dispute it

Great post. I am reminded of a Homer Simpson quote - something along the lines of "75% of people know that statistics can be used to prove anything".

Seriously though - interesting to see that in 2003 Geelongs only debutant is Moloney. Jamar and Rivers also debuted that year - are really starting to show something extra this year after bad injuries. Get the feeling Jamar has finally realised he can have a big say in games by playing his natural game - the enforcer - much like Hudson. Hopefully our team becomes as skillfull as the doggies - to clean up the scraps.

So you do dispute it

Not quite. I'll back you in anything to do with Wheels.

You're quite right.

PS. I've edited OP to include St.Kilda's timeline of debutants.

Thirdly, I think people talking about finals next year are in for a potential reality check. Given the list will still be so young it is possible that we could be in for a tough year next year. I hope we can reflect significant improvement next year but I would be surprised if there was a quantum leap next year that would involve finals action.

You could well be right RR But i still think with the influx of the 2 new teams next year-This club must Aim High, as there will be no more hiding under the Radar. I don't mean pushing players unreasnoably, what i mean is the Football dept must set a High Standard of excellence & Stick to it-enough of the young kids have a taste of senior footy now.

I bet the players are getting pretty tired of losing judging by the way they belted out the song last sunday.

our success rate in 2010 will be very interesting-we must continue to grow Membership & that means we Must be competitive. Bailey is right with that word-it says it all.

Last Saturday the Team went after the Ball-Hunted. The Weak before they almost ran away from the Ball.

I know which Game plan i want to see next year.

2010 Do it For Jimma.....