A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,173]

I'll post up the replays of the Blue Diamond & Oakleigh Plate if and when they become available but here's the Futurity Stakes (2018) ...

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Nice, thanks.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

18 hours ago, Macca said:

Well ... if you banked on our best bets returning at least a 2 from 4 result then Gailo Chop was a moral.  That was an authoritative win. 

Ended up in front for the day with Gailo Chop saluting (got a half decent multi up) On top of that the Demons won with authority as well. 

Anyway,  playing with house money tomorrow for the 2 big Group 1 races at Sha Tin.  The usual suspects are all running around again and both races have quality field's involved. 
 

The Hong Kong Gold Cup 2000m  Group 1  WFA  $1.7Million (7.05pm)

The Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup 1400m  Group 1  WFA  $1.7Million (7.40pm)

 

Just having a look at the Jubilee Cup, both Fifty Fifty and Beat the Clock have never not placed in their careers. 8 from 8 and 12 from 12 respectively. I wonder if Moreria is going to butcher Beat the Clock like he butchered that  other horse, the other week at Sha Tin Macca? I think that horse had also never missed a place. Interesting. I wonder what the quinella would pay? Box exacta maybe??!

Edited February 25, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Just having a look at the Jubilee Cup, both Fifty Fifty and Beat the Clock have never not placed in their careers. 8 from 8 and 12 from 12 respectively. I wonder if Moreria is going to butcher Beat the Clock like he butchered that  other horse, the other week at Sha Tin Macca? I think that horse had also never missed a place. Interesting. I wonder what the quinella would pay? Box exacta maybe??!

The top 2 (Helene Paragon & Beauty Generation) are both proven at Group 1 level but 'Best the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty' are very quick horses and the distance suits both Wadda. 

It's out of those 4 really with your 2 on top ... however,  I might throw a couple more in for 3rd in a multi Trifecta.  Pingwu Spark (no.11) would have to be a show too ... been running excellent times at this distance carrying weight.

Your quinella looks a good bet if we go on current form. 

In the Hong Kong Gold Cup I will be working around Werther & Seasons Bloom.  Both proven at this level and both in good form.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I love that name Helene Paragon. They come up with the best names.

If i get another dog, i will call her Helene Paragon.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

Was watching Racing.com last night and they were pointing out that there is only 1 turn in the 1100/1200 metre races at Caulfield.  There is a 500-600 straight run from the starting gates to the turn which means that the wide barrier draws are not as bad a disadvantage as one would think.  You learn something new every day in this caper!

Anyway ...

Click on this link for a race replay of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (2018)

And here's the replay of the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (2018) ...

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

No thats actually a really good point. I amazed ive never heard that mentioned before actually. Love learning that stuff.

[Macca 16,173]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

No thats actually a really good point. I amazed ive never heard that mentioned before actually. Love learning that stuff.

Same here - never knew (and I've been to Caulfield dozens of times including when the big sprint races are held there)  

I suppose that's why we're labelled 'mug-punters' Wadda

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Same here - never knew (and I've been to Caulfield dozens of times including when the big sprint races are held there)  

I suppose that's why we're labelled 'mug-punters' Wadda

I also think Racing.com is pretty switched on....way more than Bruce anyway.

[Macca 16,173]

36 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I also think Racing.com is pretty switched on....way more than Bruce anyway.

Bruce was the doyen before he became too gushy.  He still knows his stuff if you can ignore all the schmaltz.  I don't mind him but I now prefer the 'racing-heads' because of the vital info. 

Having cable I'm spoilt for choice - I will occasionally go to 7HD for the actual races because of the quality of picture but the racing channel (78) and Sky Thoroughbreds HD is ample enough Wadda.  Both stations have a preview show and a review show from the Saturday races. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Bruce was the doyen before he became too gushy.  He still knows his stuff if you can ignore all the schmaltz.  I don't mind him but I now prefer the 'racing-heads' because of the vital info. 

Having cable I'm spoilt for choice - I will occasionally go to 7HD for the actual races because of the quality of picture but the racing channel (78) and Sky Thoroughbreds HD is ample enough Wadda.  Both stations have a preview show and a review show from the Saturday races. 

Yeah Bruce is ok and knows his stuff, but theres too much padding. There are some smart cookies out there but they can also be too smart and get it wrong. Some guys were wanting to lay Gailo Chop, said he couldnt do it..You can get too much info sometimes. Dr Turf is pretty good.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah Bruce is ok and knows his stuff, but theres too much padding. There are some smart cookies out there but they can also be too smart and get it wrong. Some guys were wanting to lay Gailo Chop, said he couldnt do it..You can get too much info sometimes. Dr Turf is pretty good.

My biggest issue with the pundits is that they are often trying to outdo one another and will rarely come to a unanimous agreement.  Punters are often the same.

For instance,  the 4 best bets we come up with can be used in a variety of ways - straight out W/P,  included in Quaddies,  Trifectas,  Running Doubles,  Quinellas etc or in multi's. 

My adage might be ... when in doubt pick a Group-type horse dropping back or if it's class stands out in a Group Race.  A number of the winners yesterday fell into that category - Gailo Chop,  Russian Revolution,  Sunlight,  Kementari,  Brave Smash.  

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

My biggest issue with the pundits is that they are often trying to outdo one another and will rarely come to a unanimous agreement.  Punters are often the same.

For instance,  the 4 best bets we come up with can be used in a variety of ways - straight out W/P,  included in Quaddies,  Trifectas,  Running Doubles,  Quinellas etc or in multi's. 

My adage might be ... when in doubt pick a Group-type horse dropping back or if it's class stands out in a Group Race.  A number of the winners yesterday fell into that category - Gailo Chop,  Russian Revolution,  Sunlight,  Kementari,  Brave Smash.  

Yep pretty much how i see it. Sometimes its hard to spot a group horse dropping back, i miss them.

Im on @ Sha Tin....i have taken a tri standing out Beat the Clock and 50/50, with a number of others to come 2nd and third inc both standouts.

I also took Werther into both for the win. Bowman on board.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Close, but no cigar.

[Macca 16,173]

18 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Close, but no cigar.

Werther had every chance but the winner too good .. a truly run race and they broke 2 minutes for the 2000m.  A track record.  Time Warp just wouldn't concede. 

The first 4 across the line a class above.  Had them all in a trifecta but alas,  the wrong configuration!

My trifecta in the next race mirrors yours Wadda - I've gone with the 2 new guns as well. 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

Again,  the winner just too good.

You always get a run for your money in these types of races - Beauty Generation is a proven Group 1 winner and that experience was telling. 

Group racing sorts out the newcomers but Beat the Clock & Fifty Fifty weren't disgraced.  To win these races you've got to beat the best of the best.

Went 2 - 6 - 6 in both races but should have gone 3 - 5 - 5.  There wasn't a 6th horse in either race that was going to threaten.  You live and learn. 

[Dee Zephyr 17,433]

27 minutes ago, Macca said:

Again,  the winner just too good.

You always get a run for your money in these types of races - Beauty Generation is a proven Group 1 winner and that experience was telling. 

Group racing sorts out the newcomers but Beat the Clock & Fifty Fifty weren't disgraced.  To win these races you've got to beat the best of the best.

Went 2 - 6 - 6 in both races but should have gone 3 - 5 - 5.  There wasn't a 6th horse in either race that was going to threaten.  You live and learn. 

Spot on Macca, I tuned in to watch both races and the winners would just not give in.

I didn't have anything going but was cheering for you and Wadda.

Until next week.

 

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

Spot on Macca, I tuned in to watch both races and the winners would just not give in.

I didn't have anything going but was cheering for you and Wadda.

Until next week.

Yep ... and it seems that every week there is a new story. 

Winx will be back!  In the Chipping Norton at the Farm.  I'll be trying a 1-3-5-5 First 4 which for $20 will return 55% of the dividend.  Happy to take some feedback on the horses involved in that multiple.

On top of that we've got the $1Million Australian Guineas @ Headquarters.  Of course,  you being the Flemington 'Forecaster' D77 means we'll be expecting lots of tips!

During the week I'll try and post up the videos of last year's feature events held at this time last year.  Australian Group & Listed Races

Here are the replays of the 2 Group 1 races from Sha Tin today.  Hey @Wadda We Sing ,  you and I can sit back watch us lose our money all over again ha ha

 

 

[Macca 16,173]

3 Group 1 races coming up this weekend (Chipping Norton Stakes,  Australian Guineas & the Surround Stakes)

Here are the replays of last year's Chipping Norton & Australian Guineas ...

 

 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

Early doors but there's a few horses that standout at Randwick on Saturday (apart from Winx)  Santos (R3),  Care to Think (R5) & Alizee (R7) are all heavily supported but I'm leaning towards Dixie Blossoms in race 8 (The Guy Walter Stakes)

I usually like to go early but with a bit of rain about up there I'll wait a day or so. 

In the Winx race (R6) only Prized Icon stands out as a likely placegetter whilst Classic Uniform & Stampede seem to be ahead of the rest for a first 4 wager (box the 3 for 2nd,  3rd & 4th?)

 

Edit: Had a little 'interest' bet trifecta in the Launceston Cup today and it got up!  A more than decent dividend too, all things considered.  Would have had the first 4 if I'd had a go at it.  Another Darren Weir winner of course. 

Edited February 28, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

15 hours ago, Macca said:

Early doors but there's a few horses that standout at Randwick on Saturday (apart from Winx)  Santos (R3),  Care to Think (R5) & Alizee (R7) are all heavily supported but I'm leaning towards Dixie Blossoms in race 8 (The Guy Walter Stakes)

I usually like to go early but with a bit of rain about up there I'll wait a day or so. 

In the Winx race (R6) only Prized Icon stands out as a likely placegetter whilst Classic Uniform & Stampede seem to be ahead of the rest for a first 4 wager (box the 3 for 2nd,  3rd & 4th?)

 

Edit: Had a little 'interest' bet trifecta in the Launceston Cup today and it got up!  A more than decent dividend too, all things considered.  Would have had the first 4 if I'd had a go at it.  Another Darren Weir winner of course. 

Perhaps Macca instead of being our Caulfield spy, maybe i could get a pair of binoculars and be our Ballarat Darren Weir over the back fence stable spy.......they are around here somewhere...

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Im happy to make Santos my best bet. Unless D77, you want to make it yours as hes your baby? I dont mind at all. I want to atone for my loss last week on Ace High. Was slightly disappointed he didnt finish with a bit more dash. You never really know if jockeys are under instruction or not.

Normally i dont like 2yo as they can do anything, and if theres a bit of rain about its an unknown factor. Hes a little short at 2.10 and i hope he doesnt come in to something stupid, but in the small field he looks a good thing.

Edited February 28, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 17,433]

46 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Im happy to make Santos my best bet. Unless D77, you want to make it yours as hes your baby? I dont mind at all. I want to atone for my loss last week on Ace High. Was slightly disappointed he didnt finish with a bit more dash. You never really know if jockeys are under instruction or not.

Normally i dont like 2yo as they can do anything, and if theres a bit of rain about its an unknown factor. Hes a little short at 2.10 and i hope he doesnt come in to something stupid, but in the small field he looks a good thing.

I wasn't going to make Santos my best Wadda, not saying he can't win. If someone else wants to declare him, all good. I think he can win, I'm just waiting for the "word" from Sydney.

I have a feeling the $2.10 will get a beating due to his last run.

Alizee stands out to me at the moment but also short at $2.15. I'll probably wait until Saturday morning for scratchings/state of track.

Edit: Santos had a cracking trial/gallop last Saturday so he's as ready as ever. If he repeats his last run he will be extremely hard to toss.

Edited February 28, 2018 by Demon77

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

I wasn't going to make Santos my best Wadda, not saying he can't win. If someone else wants to declare him, all good. I think he can win, I'm just waiting for the "word" from Sydney.

I have a feeling the $2.10 will get a beating due to his last run.

Alizee stands out to me at the moment but also short at $2.15. I'll probably wait until Saturday morning for scratchings/state of track.

Edit: Santos had a cracking trial/gallop last Saturday so he's as ready as ever. If he repeats his last run he will be extremely hard to toss.

Thats all pretty good then D77. As i said im worried they will smash him into 1.50 with that field, then it wont be any value at all and in fact on a hiding to nothing. They are 2yo after all. Perhaps we can get on early like say tomorrow night, if most of the BBs are in. I would say he will come in to at least 1.80.

Any wet track form? Lets wait for the late mail then.

My other pick would be Cliffs Edge in the Guineas race, but there are some good sorts in there as well.

[Dee Zephyr 17,433]

11 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats all pretty good then D77. As i said im worried they will smash him into 1.50 with that field, then it wont be any value at all and in fact on a hiding to nothing. They are 2yo after all. Perhaps we can get on early like say tomorrow night, if most of the BBs are in. I would say he will come in to at least 1.80.

Any wet track form? Lets wait for the late mail then.

My other pick would be Cliffs Edge in the Guineas race, but there are some good sorts in there as well.

Untried in the wet Wadda. The weather is predicting sun for Fri and Sat up there.

I'll have some more info soon hopefully. I agree with you, best to get in early with the current odds.

Edit: Santos did win a trial on a slow5 back in Jan. Mate says there's no rain up there.

Edited March 1, 2018 by Demon77