deelusions from afar

I think he deserves another week. His ruck impact was good and he wasn't terrible forward - in pretty tough key forward conditions. If Smith doesn't work forward this weekend, what lever do we have to pull with the sub? Grundy doesn't have to have huge impact (Jacko didn't in most games in 2021) but we can't expect it all to click on one night with rough conditions against the most inform team.

It's great to be in this kind of position where we will be able to draft or trade in some quality this year (after a solid year and a number of promising youngsters developing in the VFL). Assuming Petty is able to get on the park next year and play forward (and the likes of May and Max can keep up their form), the main glaring weakness I think is some more outside run with excellent finishing skills. When we drafted Bowey and Laurie, that was the plan. Potentially Bowey could be tried at half forward to play that role. I'm not convinced Laurie is going to make it with us. I get you go best available at the pointy end, but from what I've seen none of Reid, Curtin, Watson fill the need we need most (not saying I wouldn't want us to draft them). Who at the pointy end best suits our list if we're in win now mode?

I like Spargs but don't think we can play with him, Kozzie, Chandler and ANB in the one side unless one is getting significant midfield minutes?

Have they ever both played good games on the same weekend? 🤔

Agree with most of that. I find it hard to think that Hibberd can't get in the side - he has been very good this year. Not wanting to pot Bowey on the basis of a fumble but is Hibberd ahead of him on form. He certainly was before getting injured earlier this year. I like Bowey but wonder with McVee and Salem already back there maybe his foot skills are not as critical? The sub is tricky - i think Melksham and Smith have been perfect as they have the ability to take over from slower key position players when we need run in the last quarter and a bit (eg BBB, Tomlinson). Which leads me back to having Hibberd as sub to take over from Tomlinson (as you had!) Maybe with Fritsch back they will have to put Smith or Melksham as the sub?

Agree re we can't take Hawthorn lightly as they have beaten a number of top teams. But don't agree re Goody's comments - surely you realise what he says publicly is going to be different from what is said internally? Of course they don't to be behind at any point but we're playing against competitive teams that are doing what they can to maximise their strengths and thwart ours. It is important for the team (and supporters) to know they can come back when they are down in big matches (eg 2021 3rd Quarter and the commentators are saying "The bont has one hand on the cup and the other on the norm smith) they won't believe than can come back. It's a competitive comp - no team in it is able to dominate from start to finish. We are as well placed as any other side in it right now.

I think I'd keep Grundy in this week and bring Smith forward. Probably have Tomlinson in the side and Hibberd as the sub - Hibberd deserves a full game but I think it's good to have an option to replace Tomlinson if we need more run from defence at the end of the match.

I seem to be a bit of an outlier from the way most people saw the game... but Grundy turned the game in the 3rd and 4th quarters when he went into the ruck. 3rd Quarter clock had 13:15 left, Grundy comes on with scores 6.6. 42 to 4.4.28 Carlton's way. When Gawn comes back on it 6.6.42 to 6.4.40 Carlton's way. No more goals in the quarter (we got two more points) 4th Quarter, Max is rucking at the start when we give up 3 quick goals resulting from 2 centre clearances (Oliver wasn't in the centre either) and another starting from a throw in. Grundy comes on at 9.6.60 to 6.6.42 Carlton's way with 15:42 on the clock. We kicked two goals in the next 4min period and then Max was back on. We didn't kick any more goals from then on (though as we all know we had decent opportunities to) Maybe Max had an injury - but the TDK / Pittonet combination seemed to trouble him. Having Brodie in the side made a big difference. Brodie didn't do a lot up forward but I'm not sure if Petty (or anyone else) would have made a huge difference - the game style was quite different to other weeks. I think it's worth persisting with (maybe keep Smith forward). Also think there's plenty of ways they can manage this better - as others have pointed out, when we're kicking in Brodie shouldn't be in the same vicinity as Max (it means he's got to mark against both their men). Brodie also looks a bit lost when we have to defend and he's in the ruck - it just doesn't feel like they're currently maximising their strengths. I don't think TMac is the answer - so hopefully they can get this to click the next few weeks.

Agree with you on all of that - although maybe not quite as confident as you about this weekend ... but maybe I'm just managing my expectations (or mental health) should we not get up!

@binman or anyone else listen to Sando's Strategy session on Whatley today? I again think he's overrated. He references losing McDonald (I think he meant Petty) and then goes on to talk about the different styles of Melbourne and Carlton. He said Carlton is all about winning at the contest and defending really well. I thought our mantra was "contest and defence"? He said Melbourne will want it to be a fast transitional free flowing game whereas Carlton will want methodical, stoppage, scoring from contest. But also said how Melbourne had scored so many goals from stoppage last week. And also said Carlton's great wins this year have come from turnovers in the transition coming back the other way. 🤔 In my view both teams are quite similar in style. Both pride themselves in winning the ball in the contest and score that way when they can. The other way they score is through turnovers (as do almost every other team). Why do people rate Sando?

Didn't May keep Curnow quiet in our last match against them? Surely as their only key target he would play on him again? Smith for Martin?

I would think so as well. However, if he is not cooked... he may have timed his run well. We're currently running into finals with our main swing man / forward (Petty) down and out... and intending to rely on Smith (who has never had much luck staying on the park). TMac (who admittedly frustrates the bejesus out of me when playing) has the ability to play forward, back and has also relieved in the ruck previously. We're only an injury or two away from needing me... who knows... if he gets it together in the VFL he may get called on anyway.

I agree. We were getting all the media attention in 2018 and we know where that got us (as good as it was at the time). What we have now is far more consistent which is boring for the media

I'm sure they're getting in his ear right now saying that if he builds his body and works hard then there will be opportunities next year. I know key position players take longer... but I don't think anyone saw McVee playing all games this time last year. Big summer for Jefferson coming up!

You're preaching to the converted. But the reality is we are all in silos on our own teams. While many pies fans would be concerned, I'm sure there's others that are saying they've been loading and/or there's no motivation for dead rubber games and their effort will be back for the finals. I think many in the media are scarred by Melbourne losing all its matches the same way at the end of last year - seemingly with no ability to change the momentum of the game (except maybe against Carlton) once we lost it in the second half. There are so many signs which indicate this year is very different - but we don't currently know. Huge game against Carlton!

I'm definitely not going into bat for Josh Jenkins as i don't think I've ever heard him say anything special as an analyst. However, he's not wrong on a few things: With Petty's injury, the forward line IS still a question mark. I'm not overly concerned as 2021 showed that if the other parts of our game are in check then that's more important. We've got a few weeks to work out if its Smith / Grundy / BBB / Tmac. Brisbane had us on toast. However they have since lost Ashcroft and we will still get Oliver and Fritsch back - and more importantly, we found a way. The mainstream footy media love the knee jerk reactions (and anyone with opposing views to generate debate) but the reality is the finals are still a few weeks away - watch whoever wins in our match this week become the number 1 favourite next week.

Interestingly in 2021 (due to covid) we didn't train there either. Just sayin

I think that might have been more to do with Oliver than any messaging strategy

It's interesting to reflect our 2021 GF forward line consisted of Key forwards / resting ruck: Tmac, BBB and Jackson Mid sized forwards: Fritsch Small forwards / resting mids: Kozzie, ANB, Spargo, Sparrow On current form / selection, Spargo is replaced by Chandler. I'm assuming Petty doesn't make it back for finals but Fritsch does. On balance I think one of BBB / Grundy / Tmac? will make the finals team. My reason being that I don't think we'd go with a forwardline of JVR with aerial support from Smith, Fritsch and Melksham - we'd be a bit undersized. However, it largely comes down to ball movement (which has a lot to do with pressure, fitness, gut running and skill execution). I wouldn't be against going with a smaller more nimble line-up this weekend against the blues to see how it goes. My hunch is the blues pressure (since they've started winning) is actually very good and may force us to bomb forward which is unlikely to be effective when our only big target is a young key forward in his first season in the AFL. Having said that, none of BBB, Grundy or Tmac are competitive types in a pack - they are better on the lead (BBB), when it hits the ground (Grundy) or coming third man up (TMac).

A lot to play out... but I think the Giants will make the prelim the way they are going. Wouldn't want to face them if that happened!

While I don't disagree, I think the world has shifted - its no good for the competition to have teams stuck at the bottom (regardless of how they got there). The AFL will do whatever it thinks will get North heading up the ladder.

I remember people saying the same about us when we at our lowest ebb. As we know, more high draft picks doesn't work on its own and understandably I think the AFL should be open to other options that would do more to get them moving the right direction e.g: Greater soft cap allocation (for a few years) for teams that have finished in the bottom 4 (for example) 3 years running. As we know, you can have all the top picks but it doesn't matter if you don't develop them. Greater salary cap (eg veterans list) (also for a finite period of time) to enable the bottom clubs to chase experienced culture building type players in the twilight of their careers. Extra draft pick at start of second and third round. Larger list / rookie list for teams that are stuck at the bottom of the ladder.

I think the beauty of having Petty and Smith in the team (and previously McDonald) you have options at your disposal to change things up when it's not working in game. Probably my only real criticism of Goody is that he previously didn't do enough of this in game - but there's a tension between that and backing your players and planning in (and also our fitness levels) for things to change over time. Having the option of switching Petty / Smith in game is a real weapon going forward.

I would have thought the same but I heard Sam Edmund on the radio earlier this week and while all these footy "journalists" have to make big calls to stay relevant - it seemed to me he had been fed information from a good source and was preparing the ground for this to happen. I don't like it, but I just get the sense it's going to happen - they'll have pick 2, pick 3 (McKay) and then have access to Sanders separately.

Agree with you on Hunter - but I thought they were alternating the wings this year based on their preferred kicking foot?