deelusions from afar

I imagine this stuff can only really happen on draft night if there ae players wanted by other clubs that will be picked at 9 or just after and we don't want those players? The way people talk, the draft seems so deep that it would make sense to split it. But ultimately it will probably come down to who JT rates and how that compares to the clubs with picks in the 10-15 range.

I feel like Brock got the most out of himself. But always wondered what Col would have been if he entered a better system - I reckon he could have been Petracca level (with dedication, development and injury luck)

How does it work if he wants to go somewhere else but no one trades for him (and we still want to keep him). They no longer have the pre-season draft do they?

Yeah it's interesting to know what our strategy is eg is it: A. "We have our eye specifically on someone who will be there at 9-15" (as we seemed keen on 13). Maybe - but this draft seems very unpredictable so would be hard to be sure of anything. B. "This draft has so much talent - to have 2 picks in the top 10 means we could get 2 stars" C. "We don't have a set plan but top picks are a premium - we can use them like that, slide 9 back for another in the second round or even package them for 2 and another first round". D. Something else again I suspect its mostly C and A - we probably have about 15 different scenarios war gamed out!

He might be one that can helpf with culture - he was the leader when Trac and Clarry etc were coming through so they prob still look up to him. But he doesn't strike me as someone that will have fresh ideas in terms of gamestyle / strategy (at least not without having spent some time at another club)

I'm coming round on this. When we signed Petracca and Oliver to long term deals they had both been extremely durable. In some respects the long contracts have saved us in keeping them. But to get the long contracts, you are paying them big coin which - if they continue to play at the high level - is worth it. But some players are not going to stay as hungry when they have that security. I'm not saying that applies to Trac and Oliver - I'm backing them to have big years next year. But they've both had significant injuries / trauma / battles to deal with in recent times - if they don't deliver then we won't be able to trade them (without paying a bulk of their salary). At the same time - they would've looked a fairly safe bet when we signed them (on output to date) and probably had rival offers that forced our hand.

Who's "Irish" - is that a reference to one of the Irish players that tried out? I'm also scratching my head with how we fill all the spots. I've been wondering if because we finished so low, we get close to first dibs (compared with previous years) in the Rookie draft and mid-season draft. Maybe that's coming into calculations?

While I love the thinking... They've said: Essendon trading pick 9 and a future third-round pick for Melbourne's future first-round pick and picks 28, 40, 46, 54 and 65. So where are these picks coming from? And is there no longer a rule about needing to have the list spots available (or something similar) if you're using a suite of picks to match points for a player (ie to stop teams stockpiling late picks)?

True... but if you know the Don's list you know they're crying out for a small forward - so they need him. I think they want to ensure they get him and another 1st round pick (whether that be this year or next it doesn't really matter). I guess the saints may be more attractive - who would they see as more likely to jump up the ladder next year out of us or them?

Clearly don't understand all the permutations... but I would have thought that giving up our future 1st limits our ability to get pick 9 from the bombers? Maybe the saints are confident they will be able to trump our offer for it - the bombers might have already told us this? Otherwise why would we do this now when it seems like we are in the box seat to get 9 if we (or someone else) bids on Kako? What am I missing?

That's fair enough. But I actually really appreciate us having a go back for once. We've been under seige for more than a year and have just been copping it. I'm not against Goody and others' approach of being "a good Melbourne person" and being pragmatic and not dodoro when dealing with player movement... as I think these things are important to be successful ina sustainable way. But we are under seige and no one has flown the flag... Don't get me started on Maynard at Kings Birthday! So I actually appreciate Brad for pushing back - about time someone did!

Yes - but it all makes sense that Morris' mail is coming from the managers when you go over what he's saying: re Petracca after the Oliver tour of Geelong. Not exact quote but something like "Make no mistake, this is not Petracca pushing Oliver out - his issue was with the way Melbourne handled Oliver, not Oliver himself." Petracca was overseas when this was said. Would he really be prioritising getting this out into the media or is this something that he can leave with people that are paid to look after his affairs - like a manager? I'm not going to drag up all of the comments Morris has made on Petracca / Oliver over the last 3 months... but I think you'll find it lines up perfectly with what their management would know and want out in the public.

Surely for him to play, it means one of Petty / JVR / Disco need to be out of the side (or maybe in defence). What's his defensive pressure like? I think the competitiveness is what they like about the others and why someone like Weid did not make it. Despite what ppl think / say about Petty - I reckon his year was injury affected and he's a solid body and has a bit of mongrol in him (albeit he seemed to be down on confidence this year).

I reckon the leaks to the media are from player agents - it's no coincidence that Tom Morris was at the front of developments of both stories (with a reliable source) and Oliver and Trac have the same manager.

Essendon don't have a competent small forward - they need Kako really badly. Someone (us / Saints) could have them over a barrel if cards are played right. Unlikely for anything to happen until draft night. I imagine we'll want it known that we're keen on Kako and open to picking him but also looking at others (eg midfielders) at 5. Will actually be an exciting draft!

Surely they're not planning to play Campbell with Gawn? More as insurance if he's injured / needs a rest?

Geelong managed to effectively build a multi premiership list with a lot of talent coming in two strong drafts (note father son selections aside, most are not really high picks): 1999 Draft Pick 8 - Joel Corey Pick 31 - Paul Chapman Pick 38 - Cameron Ling Pick 47 - Corey Enright 2001 Draft Pick 8 – Jimmy Bartel Pick 17 - James Kelly Pick 24 - Steve Johnson Pick 40 (Father/Son Selection) - Gary Ablett Jr.

I like Goody so this is not intended to be saying he should go. But outside of sponsorship opportunities (eg big club like collingwood), surfcoast lifestyle / one team town (Geelong) and winning (we were the preferred destination of Cerra in 2021), I think part of what makes up a "destination club" is the gamestyle. If you look at Collingwood (22-23), Hawthorn (24) etc the winning is most important but it is also about how they win. Ie coach backing players to take risks. A lot of it is hype and BS - but clearly players at other clubs eat this up. I think Goody is a bit hamstrung by the list he has (which is evolving), the instability around him (don't think that's his doing) and certainly tried to tweak this in the first half of the season this year - but I think he has to continue to work on this. The setting up a defensive fortress and doing the percentage play makes a team too predictable and seemingly isn't as satisfying for players as well as supporters.

So hypothetically if something like this went ahead, we could slide back to Essendon's pick (5 to 9) and also gain their future 1st (would need other pick swaps you'd think). Then we use our or essendon's future first to try for another first rounder (eg freo / richmond or gold coast). That could mean we could end up with two first rounders this year and still have a first rounder next year (and still be in the running to get Brisbane's pick 20). I.e 3 picks in the top 20 (and still have next year's first). What I don't know is how much more value is pick 5 over pick 9 in this years draft. I know it is meant to be high quality and deep but depending on who you speak to, the top 5 or so are still a cut above.

Just realised GC are looking for points so ignore my post above

I assume that's because we weren't intending to use our future first for that? Could we use our future first for that and something else? eg a third round pick? Could be useful for derksen or to package with the ANB pick to go a bit higher?

You might be right. But I think backing up finals year after year is hard - we had the jump on finals teams in 2021 as we didn't play finals and had those extra few weeks to recover and train. Is that why our fitness struggled? I also think the game style of other teams evolved and ours is very taxing to keep up all season. I don't feel we've had a heap of injuries due to training / management - a lot have been collision injuries which the fitness / medical staff can't control. The issue I have had is bringing top 23 players in while underdone - why aren't they made to earn it via the VFL. Clarry's situation is different but surely he should have had to earn his stripes there this year before coming into the seniors.

I don't know but from the outside it has to be partly B - do you remember there were matches last year where Oliver was not selected but he was wearing the sub top and training / stretching on the boundary line - while the game was being played? It's like giving an 10yo a sense of purpose to be part of the team who can't deal with not playing. Clearly Clarry is a handful - it seems this was managable until last year - as others have said things came crashing down for him after breaking up with his gf and getting his first significant injury. I'm sure the club hasn't been perfect but I don't think there's a manual for what they've had to deal with. Ironically (so Melbourne), that if he does leave, it is because we stuck by him last year and helped him get to a better place mentally that we will now only be able to extract a fraction of his value. We've done the right thing by him as a person - but ultimately it seems to have played a role in fracturing the club and now we're far worse off.

I went on to the Cats Big Footy to get a sense of the trade yesterday and they seemed to ahve a lot of intel on what went on

Agree its hard to know what to believe. But if this is true... then it's not like Pert would be doing this independently of Goody / Tim Lamb / Jason Taylor etc. If it is true, the Dees must think there is more risk of ongoing problems / fractures etc with Clarry staying or that he won't get back to his best. Definitely hope its not true but after the last few years it feels like there does need to be some big changes / difficult calls to move forwrad. Hopefully they make the right ones.