deelusions from afar

I'm interested in the graphics they show in the analysis where the players (such as Langdon and Hunter) average getting the ball on the field. They have Langdon smack bang in the centre for 2022 but for the three games in 2023, he is wide on the wing (compared to all other players) which is the mirror to Hunter on the other wing. My query on this is whether the change is actually because Langdon is playing the wing that suits his kicking foot (eg alternating each quarter) rather than the wing away from the interchange bench that he did before Hunter arrived. I suspect this is the reason for the change not what the article is actually suggesting.

Potentially had a little too much time on my hands to do this... but I was keen to see whether what I noticed re centre bounces was correct - i.e. Petracca was given less time in centre bounces earlier in the game to allow him to have greater impact later in the game. I was partially right - he had 3 CBA in the first quarter and 6 in each quarter after that. Though I think it was more to do with the timing of the centre bounces rather than a tactical reason. However going through this process I did notice a few things: Trac never started a quarter in the middle (quite different to last year) - potentially because he can be more impactful as the other players get tired during the quarter? There is a far greater spread compared to last year - with Jordan and Sparrow not a long way behind Trac / Viney and some cameos from ANB and Rivers. But no attendances from Brayshaw. Oliver and Grundy only missed one per quarter (other than in the first where Oliver missed two in a row - I suspect 2 goals in quick sucession and for Grundy the last two of the last quarter when the game was over). They are machines! Sparrow seems to have a licence to charge through and get the ball on the run every so often (it came off a couple of times) whereas Jordan seems to have more defensive roles. Rivers seems to be thrown in to get a taste and develop - is that similar to what Jordan / Sparrow got in 2020/2021? As unfair as it is, subject to any injuries my gut feel is that for Kozzie to come in, Jordan will be the one to make way as he also plays a mix of forward mid and unless he has a specific role, appears to offer slightly less than the others.

I guess drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science with so many variables - I think it's better to have a few irons in the fire rather than loading up on one (unless Taylor and co are 120% sure). It's not that I (or anyone else) wouldn't want the no.1 draft pick, it's more that if given the option, I'd prefer: Freo Pick 1: 5-12 + Our pick 1: 12-18 + Freo Pick 2: 23-30 Particuarly in what is reportedly a super draft year. Think of Port Adelaide in 2018 got Rozee (pick 5), Butters (pick 12) and Duursma (pick 18) or even our effort in 2019 with Jacko, Kozzie and Riv - nail the picks and it could get us the x factor to win a flag or set us up for life after Trac and Clarrie (which is still 7 or so years away!)

I know it doesn't work this way but if it did, I'd rather keep Kozzy than get a King. With JVR, Schache, Jefferson etc we have Key forward options going forward - and we might draft another talented one in this year's draft. We don't have to have the best key forward - just options that can take contested marks and be a reliable set shot. I find it amazing that many of the best key forwards that demand the big $$ are not overly reliable set shots! Kozzy is one out of the box that is likely to go up another level this year with time midfield and forward.

In fairness while Cal Twomey and Riley Beveridge are more reliable AFL "journalists" than many they are still AFL journalists which are trying to make stories out of nothing because the extra clicks is what pays the bills. It's pure speculation when the guy still has a year to play and anything could happen.

It's an interesting call - I was keen for this at the end of the last year. Notably Petty didn't spend any time forward over the pre-season and the club seems to have doubled down on TMac, BBB, JVR and Schache. But as you say, for May to come in, someone has to go out and Tomlinson has played better than Petty. I wonder if they think he is too good a player to drop and so they push him forward. Equally if they don't play JVR soon, Freo / WCE will be in his ear saying "we will play you each week". Given we are playing Sydney I think they won't want to change things too much but if there is a loss I think all of this will be on the table.

While this Reid kid sounds like a gun, it's not the first time a player has been considered a generational talent who will go pick 1 that would be worth selling the house for. In hindsight, if you have a good system (development, culture etc), it seems like 3 picks in the top 25 would be a more reliable bet - you could end up with the best player in the draft still and you may end up with 2-3 top 10 players in your team. E.g. here's a list of recent no.1 picks - there's hardly any that would now be considered the best of their draft. 2006 Bryce Gibbs Carlton Glenelg SANFL 2007 Matthew Kreuzer Carlton Northern Knights TAC Cup 2008 Jack Watts Melbourne Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup 2009 Tom Scully Melbourne Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2010 David Swallow Gold Coast East Fremantle Football Club WAFL 2011 Jonathon Patton Greater Western Sydney Eastern Ranges TAC Cup 2012 Lachie Whitfield Greater Western Sydney Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2013 Tom Boyd Greater Western Sydney Eastern Ranges TAC Cup 2014 Paddy McCartin St Kilda Geelong Falcons TAC Cup 2015 Jacob Weitering Carlton Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup 2016 Andrew McGrath Essendon Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup 2017 Cameron Rayner Brisbane Lions Western Jets TAC Cup 2018 Sam Walsh Carlton Geelong Falcons TAC Cup 2019 Matthew Rowell Gold Coast Oakleigh Chargers NAB League 2020 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Oakleigh Chargers NAB League 2021 Jason Horne-Francis North Melbourne South Adelaide SANFL

Yeah I agree. It was interesting watching us v the Doggies and realising we've now got a number of players in the team that are reliable by foot and capable of high level kicks. Eg add Hunter, McVee, Bowey, Rivers, Chandler - to the players that were already there (Spargo, Kozzie, Brayshaw) and we are able to do things as a team we couldn't previously. Then we have Fritsch, May and Salem all to come back in. This is a long way from where we were when Goody first came to the club! And oh course then there's the contested beast midfielders (Clarry, Trac, Vines) and the runners (ANB and Langdon) who are capable (but maybe due to their role) less reliable by foot.

Great post @Engorged Onion. I love it when people well thought expansive posts like that - particuarly on this thread! I think that what you hav e written makes sense - will be interested to hear others thoughts. A couple of additional thoughts to add to yours: 1. One aspect that I find interesting (but also a bit weird) is that I have heard a number of senior coaches say there are many trends in the game style that last 5-6 weeks so everyone is constantly evolving throughout the season - looking at what everyone else is doing etc. Eg if you stick with what you have in round 1, you'll get found out by the end - it's almost like they are saying you have to be on top of the trends when the pass the parcel music stops at the end of the season. To me that seems a bit over the top - and they are likely just trying to pad out the importance and difficulty of their job. What do others think? 2. I have found the analysis of David King on Collingwood in the last week interesting - eg going for the coridoor each and every time. He's spruiking it like its never been done before. I remember when we had game plans that went through the Centre (was it under Bailey?). When it comes off it looks great - but we were shut down easily as teams would stack the coridoor. So a few questions on this: How hard is it in the modern game to adjust a zone type defensive setup / press for an opponent that plays the centre coridoor (eg Collingwood)? Our game plan (like many others) seems to be based around encouraging teams to kick to the boundary so that we only have to properly defend one side of the ground. Can we adjust our setup for the coridoor style of play? Is the acquisition of Grundy and the way we have played him and Gawn in the matches (1 real 2 practice) an indication that we are trying to develop strategies to thwart teams that want to use the coridoor?

I reckon that's pretty good - for mine on team balance I'd have Chin in for Harmes or Sparrow. I hope they take advantage of this depth this year and rotate our players through

It's a fair question - I don't think I've seen enough of them to say for sure. I don't think there's any reason why Brayshaw couldn't be an elite clearance player... but it seems odd that he spends a lot of time in centre bounces for little return. He's one of the best players in the AFL so maybe if he's on a wing or HFF or HBF you'd maximise his abilities. Particularly when Fyfe is sitting in the forward line. Potentially its about Freo having the right mix in the centre bounces so that the players work together to block the opposition etc. But if Brayshaw is attending 17 (85%) CBs on the weekend and only getting 1 clearance I don't think its working. He also attended 17/18 centre bounces in the finals v the dogs and the pies and didn't get a clearance in either! We all know he can play - but maybe the opposition have worked him out, maybe he's not getting the support / blocks he needs or maybe he's not a natural centre bounce player.

Agree - can't see Roos backing up with such a young inexperienced side. At the same time, I could see them getting hold of Freo in the centre bounces. Contrary to popular belief, Brayshaw is not an effective centre bounce / clearance player and Serong is not currently setting the world on fire either - and yet they have both in for most centre bounces. Meanwhile Fyfe is in the forwardline looking like a fish out of water and Mundy has hung up the boots

This is exciting to hear... it's much better to watch as a supporter too. If they're moving it quick, it can be hard to stop - although if it was the only way we moved the ball, teams would clog the corridor so we ideally need to be comfortable doing it multiple ways. Did you notice designated players taking the corridor kick eg Bowey, May, Rivers etc or are they encouraging all players to do it?

Surely we can't have all three and 2 ruckman (far too top heavy for the modern game).... or can we?🤔

Love it PF!

I posted this on the thread for Lachie Hunter but @dworship suggested I repost it here. Agree with @Fat Tony that ideally the wingers would play on the wing that suits their preferred kicking foot.

Question for those that understand the role/s of modern wingers and terminology such as fat side wing / defensive wing etc. My understanding was that: 1. We took the ball from defence (eg a kick in) on the defensive side (Brayshaw / Jordon side). We were setup so that we may not move the ball quickly but it would be harder for teams to win the ball and generate repeat attacks (as predictable as it became). 2. Langdon always played on the far side wing due to his elite endurance. This allowed for additional midfield rotations but meant that we didn't take into account the preferred kicking foot of him or the other winger/s. If Hunter is in the team and able to perform close to his ability / potential, does that mean it won't be so clear cut in terms of the attacking side? Will neither of them be a defensive winger? Will Langdon still always be on the far side wing?

Interesting. Obviously Schache has untapped potential - but so do many players. I always thought he didn't have enough mongrel / aggression in him to play the role he needed to. Maybe the role you're describing allows him to make the most of his strengths. On Tomlinson, I do think he is under-utilised with his endurance. But I can't see him and TMac playing in the same forward line as they bring similar things (i.e height with endurance). I feel with a resting ruckman and BBB / JVR we would be too top heavy and the best teams will be able to run it out of their defence too easily.

Yes I agree - I feel like we tried this in the second half of last year. As dangerous as Max / BBB and Jacko could be in the air, unless it was from the centre bounce (which wouldn't happen) the best team's team defence could adequately deal with this scenario and once the ball hit the ground had the game on their terms.

Comments regarding Salem / Brayshaw are interesting. We often look at our best team as individuals but really the coaches have to pick what combination gets the best result. We're looking for premierships not brownlows afterall! I'd be surprised to see Salem and Brayshaw both play in defence as they seem to play a similar role when they are there. Assuming Salem is over his injury / form issues from last year, I would think Brayshaw will be more of the 1st change in the centre bounce brigade - and mr fix it on the wing / in defence if required. If Hunter is in the team (and even if he is not) there is pressure on Jordon, Sparrow, Harmes, ANB (and to a lesser extent Brayshaw) who are the other players that get centre bounce opportunities and are otherwise generally at half forward. Given none of them are specialist half forwards (maybe you could say ANB is), we've got too many 2nd string midfielders in the team - we would perhaps improve our forward play by replacing one or two with the likes of Chandler / Laurie / Howes / Sestan.

...provided he doesn't (a) try to play on and run around his man (and get caught) if he's marked it or (b) try to take on the difficult 45 degree kick inboard from the back flank. I love Tommy Mac but before he got shifted forward he did both of these a lot. Agree with what you're saying though. I think with some other key targets up forward he will thrive - I think after 2018 in 2019 he was expected to be the main target forward which I don't think suits him. He gets a lot of contested marks when its kicked to someone else and he comes from the side etc. His endurance and ability to be that getout kick from defence is surely one of his best assets. Interestingly, Tomlinson won the time trial and so clearly also has an exceptional tank for someone of his size and strength. But his role seems to be as the backup full back where there's not a lot of room to make use of the asset. Seems a waste but I guess they have tried him in multiple positions - it seems his speed / agility is what hurts him playing elsewhere.

Agree with a lot of what you've written. All comes down to what the resting ruck does - but if they're spending time forward, I can't see us playing TMac, Brown, Van Rooyen and Fritsch in the one side. It's too top heavy in the forward half even with rotations And while I'm a big fan of Chandler and really want him to get a decent crack at AFL level, I don't know if it will be at the expense of ANB or Spargo. Although they are sometimes the whipping boys of the team on here, both have unique strengths that are vital to the team. ANB with his running capacity (allowing the likes of Trac to play more attacking) and Spargo with his footskills and (sadly for us) rare ability to hit targets inside F50. Chandler has strengths of his own but unless other players (eg Hunter?) can make up for the strengths of Spargo / ANB I think they'll still be in the team.

Agree @adonski and @MrFreeze - BBB arguably should be first picked of the forwards - given his extra height, reliability for set shots and experience. My main concern is how we use the spare ruckman. If Gawn (and to a lesser extent Grundy) spend time forward, then I think BBB becomes a liability once the ball hits the ground. We got burnt a lot in the second half of last year with Gawn and BBB in the same forward-line (admittedly both were prob not 100%) and the opposition running the ball out with ease. I wouldn't say Tmac is necessarily suited to this situation either. Fortunately this seems to be an area strength in JVR's game but he is a kid. I felt like BBB was also asked to play a type of role that he isn't suited to (one out and force a contest rather than on the lead) - will his role have changed for 2023? There is definitely room for BBB in my book - but only with the right mix.

Thank you so much to the track watches that have given us great insight into how we are tracking in the preseason (training the house down!) Found it interesting to hear TMac spent much of the match sim in defence. Is he likely to be a permanent fixture there? Will he be the swingman? Could he play in the same backline as Petty, Lever, May (replacing someone like Hibberd if the injuries do catch up with him)? At the end of last year I thought they needed to go with TMac / Turner back and shift Petty forward as he has the style of play and body to play the big crash power forward role in a way that all our other options can't. JVR is showing great signs but he is yet to play a senior game! I know Goody loved having TMac in the team early in 2022 as he was able to be shifted to defence if anyone went down. It meant that if someone like Chandler was the sub, it didn't hurt us if a key defender went down as we could play a smaller forwardline. Obviously having Grundy in the side (and how they use him and Max) may further influence how this works. If I were picking the side I would think it would work something like: Key defenders: May, Lever, Petty** (with Turner, Smith as backup) Key Forwards: TMac**, JVR, Fritsch, ruckman* (with BBB and Schache as backup) * I hope the resting ruckman actually plays in the ruck and the ruckman plays loose across half back. I just can't see us looking dangerous with Grundy / Gawn resting forward unless the ball movement is improved x1000 from last year. ** I would like to see Petty and TMac swap positions from time to time. I think the best teams and best coaches have flexibility built into the lineup so that opposition weaknesses can be exploited and you can have plan B scenarios without throwing out the game plan.

But realistically, who is going to give up a first for next year?