binman

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor. The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on. My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in. But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use.

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and thought my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4! Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand.

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above. But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

Never in doubt!

Its funny, there always seems to be one or two horses that makes up ground on leaders tracks. Like Seberate (at 15-1) who i backed in the last. I reckon some horse like having 2 or 3 to chase and relax into it. The problem comes lining that form up next time and i reckon many tipsters over rate how good the run was ('made ground against the pattern' blah blah blah). Leaders tracks are a real issue, particularly at Caulfield. Some horse simply don't have chance either because they miss the kick, have poor luck in running or are natural swoopers and don't like racing on speed. The problem for me is i do my form and we put all of our bets on a the start of the day so if i guess it is going to be really leaderish and i'm wrong i'm in trouble. Also by the end of the day it oftens evens up (which i take into account) but not always!

Looks like i'm right that the track is a bit leadrish. I have always thought Punter's Lament would be a great name for a horse. I have had my fist punters lament for the carnival already. Hayes has dome brillinatly with 2 years olds in the filast 2-3 years and i had planned to back his horses in race 2 and 3. Late change of mind say me just do so in the 3rd race and going with Pure elation instead in the second. Annoying to see Enbihaar win at 10s and then my two outsiders get back and have no chance in the next.

Down hearted was another horse i though was way unders. Just not a winner

Shoals i would have to say in Caulfield but Itz invicible is a good thing and in a very small field reasonable value, so lets say Itz invicible I bet with a mate and he does all the actual bets (i can't manage online bookies - too dangerous) and i do the selections and email accross to him. I have cut and pasted above and edited to remove staking.

Some comments about today. I reckon Tosen Stardom i way unders. I think the track will favour front runners as it will be bone dry and leaderish and like last last year will come home but too late. Inside draw no help. Very disappointed Black heart Bart is out as i had him on top and great value. I also think Silent Sedition is too short.

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded). Caulfield Race 1 no 1 Goldstream win Race 2 no 9 Pure elation win Race 3 no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both win Race 4 no 1 Gailo Chop win Race 5 no 1 Shoals win and place no 6 Smart coupe Race 6 no 2 Super Cash win Race 7 no 10 Scarecrow and box trif 1,2, 10 Race 8 no 10 Tshahitsi and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord of the Sky Race 9 no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta JC Mark Zahra Warwick Farm Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper Race 3 trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit Race 4 no 7 O’lordy win Race 5 no 1 Sanctimonius win Race 6 no 1 Single bullet place Race 7 no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4 Race 9 no 6 Echo effect win JC Blake Shinn Morphettville Race 5 no 1 Itz Invincible win good luck punters!

G'day punters. Sorry don't do mulits. Bookies love them for a reason. I use Winning Post for my form, have done for many years. Unfortunately it now comes out Friday morning (except in selected newsagents) meaning i have to do my form Friday night. It takes me a good 2-3 hours to from properly for both Melbourne and Sydney. I'll do my form tomorrow night/sat morning and post my best on Sat morning

I really like Waterhouse trained horses in Sydney, but more so 1400 meters and above. I love that they are mostly front runners as you always get a good sight and there is no doubt that taken in totality horses that race on speed win more races. I hate backing a horse that gets caught in traffic or cop interference, which is obviously more of a risk for back markers. Front runners also even out the skill difference in jockeys (because jockeys at the front just have to focus on tempo, not weaving through traffic or timing their run), allow a jockey to control race temp and crucially in Spring ensure they are better placed on those days where there is a leaders bias (which seems to be happening more often).

Ta

Happy to have horse racing only thread.

Agree on name change of thread. A few years back i started a punting thread but got no traction so haven't bothered. I saw this one and assumed it was out of date. I love the horses but largely focus on the Autumn and Spring Carnivals. I also like footy betting, the line mainly. Autumn carnival is my favourite carnival. It stretches from aprox next weekend through to Easter, with ours first and then Sydney (and obviously their Autumn carnival is much better than their short Spring Carnival) whereas over Spring they overlap meaning big outlays. Also i find the form is more reliable over Autumn. In Melbourne there are smaller fields than Spring but importantly the form lines are much more reliable and easier to line up, with many horses coming through the same races. Also the consistently firm tracks help and some horses just like this time of year more. In Sydney the wet tracks make picking winners easier as it they knock out half the field. The Spring carnival is a lottery. The odds on futures are tempting but realistically they are always super weighted in the bookies favour given how many horses don't get to their GF. I only ever take them a week or so out, and even then not very often. Actually the only race i really look at for futures is the Blue Diamond. I liked the fight Long leaf has been showing but Olivander also appeals with how it has been running on.

Hoges is just indicating where he is un the pecking order up forward

Love a player with a typo in his name

do you think he will put on size in an AFL environment drunkn? Dec must love the Casey vibe at the club.

Hence my joke

Where is the der fred button when you need it?

no you don't

i know the feeling.

You agree with yourself?

Agree. Leaving aside questions about the weird homo erotic analogies (we've been reamed, bent over again etc etc) the deal is fine. Considering Taylor's record we could well have a smokey earmarked for pick 35 or 3rd round and as we all know outside say the top 12 the draft is a lottery anyway. Many people argued we were bent over with Melk and even Hibberd. Melk is in our best 22 and Hibberd has been a suburb pickup - have we ever recruited a player who got selected in the AA team in their first year with us (or even subsequently?). As you say PD Lever is a perfect fit for our back line and i have no doubt it is the reason we were so keen to land him. Th other thing that has to be factored in is doing the trade early makes our trading a lot simpler now. We know what have in hand and what we can't offer. If the lever trade had held up other deals - which it may well have if not done to say the final day - this would have had unintended consequences and may well have cost us a player we were keen on. Good job Mahoney and crew.

Gary buckenara does a pretty interesting analysis here: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/gary-buckenara-analyses-melbournes-list-after-the-2017-season/news-story/08afd8b49dedaf6938358873ff2d5b28 NB: if you care not a subscriber google this and go to the article direct (note their new website won't allow you to cut and paste the text from the summary to google, so you have to mnaully type it): Demons should rethink Watts trade Says this about Lever: 'The Demons are Jake Lever’s preferred new home after he requested a trade out of Adelaide and he’d be a nice addition to the backline as that intercept-marking player, which is so critical in the modern game. He is a third defender, not really a key-position player despite being 195cm. The Crows are asking for two first-round picks in a trade and to me, that’s overs. Melbourne currently has pick No. 10 so I’d offer that and potentially a second-round pick or a young borderline best-22 player such as Alex Neale-Bullen, who is an Adelaide boy, to sweeten the deal.' This comment from the comments section below the article made me laugh: Gavin 7 hours ago Lever is exactly what Melbourne need. Another easily physically intimidated player who fails to stand up in big games.