binman

Have done my form for Caulfield, Randwick and the group race at Morphetville. Really terrific days racing. Quietly confident. Will post my best tomorrow morning when i see how the tracks and odds come up. have posted my best footy bets here

Two stand out bets for mine in the AFL Tigers plus 14.5 Comment: I think the 14.5 line for the tigers is too short. I know tigers are resting players and Bombers are playing for their chance of finals but Tigers are a 6 goal better side and i would have that line at 30 points. Great value. I hasten to add my betting partner has Bombers as one of his best so i won't be betting in this game (unless i can convince him to go unders on TMP of 166.5 - i think it will be scrappy, low scoring game) GWS plus 4.5 Comment: GWS will win this game by 4 goals plus so a line of 4.5 is terrific value

No problemo. I quite like the early race each season as first and second up form is on the whole a pretty reliable indicator. Some just come back better than others i 'weight' first and second up form quite high in my form analysis. That said it is of course not exact and i often get bloused by horses that have rubbish first up form and the trainer has changed something or it runs out of its skin. The other thing about the early races is that some good horses peak early in their prep and fall away. And so you can get ok odds and then avoid the losses at shorter odds. One horse that comes to mind is Black Heart Bart

G'day punters. This weekend is the weekend my mate and i kick off our spring season on the punt. Love the run in from here to when the carnival proper begins. Always some great value and i think the next few weeks in Sydney are great from a punting perspective - particularly if wet as it narrows the chances. I look forward to buying the Winning Post on Friday morning and starting my form on the train into town. Will post my best bets on Saturday morning. I'm not into sports multis so happy for this thread to focus primarily on the ponies. That said happy to offer up my two best footy bets for remainder of the season. I have pretty good strike rate with the footy so if others want me to post my two best i will continue to do so

Very pleased the line in the gws game came in to 12.5. Would have spewed if that big game choker tex cost me me $

My best footy bets: Gold coast v tigers game to be over the Total Match Point (TMP) of 167.5 Comment: will be a low to no pressure game and the tigers will score easily and not be too fussed about giving GC some cheapies. I would set the line at 175 so goo value GWS to make their line of 15.5 v Crows Comment: Crows have nothing left to play for and players will to want to get injured. GWS have everything to play for and need a win to shore up a top 4 spot. Crows also coming off a high pressure derby. Good value Other's to consider if looking for multis (which i don't): Brisbane line of 25.5 looks tempting as they are in pretty good form and i reckon the dogs v bulldogs TMP of 178.5 is too short given there won't be much pressure and the roos to make their line of 22.5 is also good value given the dogs are limping to the line and roos want/need percentage

Total match points, which was 155.5. A bet that in previous years have done pretty well wirh and was my main footy betting option. But very few this season because unlike last few years has been super variable. Though if you had taken unders every game you would be well up.

Fortunately my mate disagreed with my tigers line bet. But agreed with the tmp bet. So a good win.

My best bets for this round of footy Richmond to make their line of 15.5 Comments: The Total Match Point (TMP) line is only 155.5 which is the only reason i can see for the line being at 15.5. At the G the tigers are a 5 goal better side than the cats and if there is some rain about (which is why the TMP is so low) it will help the Tigers as rain suits their hyper pressure style and conversely hurts the Cats as it will negate Hawkins. So a line of 15.5 is terrific value. By the by the forecast is for showers to clear so 155.5 TMP is pretty low, though it is bound to be a high pressure affair. Roos to make their line of -2.5 Comments: Yes Higgins is out, which is a big blow and it is Lions home game but i cannot believe Lions are starting favorites in this match. North are pushing for finals and a loss would really hurt them. Surely the Roos have the greater motivation. I will add however that my mate who i bet with has send his weekly email with his best bets and has the lions as one of them! So we will be trying to convince each other the other is wrong.

Last Friday, just before the bombers game. I actually suggested the bet on a DL thread and advised if keen people should get on before the ess game as if they were to lose would come into about 1.80. I was pretty close!

A long time DZ. They do not have the pace to hurt us on the outside and we have them covered on contested ball, which is really the cornerstone of their 'brand 'and has been for many years. That said 1.45 is short. But as we both know the odds are perhaps the most reliable indicator of the relative chances in any given game.

g'day punters, I can feel it in the air, the unmistakable spring vibe. One of my favourite times of year. Love the couple of months before the spring carnival starts in earnest. My mate and i usually start back up on our spring campaign in mid to late August so soon now. Can't wait. In the man time will have to content myself with the dees still being in finals contention. I might post my bets footy bet of the round on a Friday for the last few games and finals. I like my bet now of the swans to miss the finals at $3. Had an up and won footy betting season but have made a profit so can't complain. Was well up this round coming into Sunday's game and then managed to get them ALL wrong to break even.

Well we can develop players - without the aid of drugs at that

I reckon he will get another rookie year. Big key defenders who can mark and kick ok don't grow on trees.

Very good. Except we want him to sign. Shine too i guess.

Sung to the of Shine on you crazy Diamond. Something like Sign on you crazy brayshaw...

Add hannebery and it will be a tough midfield to break into

No he's not

Speaking of Punter's lament i backed Doggies to win. Ouch

Frustrating. And a big dose of punters lament. I was going back and forth between Shillelagh and Savanna Amour. Almost went with Shillelagh as it rated higher 3 points higher than Savanna Amour but its form has been average and has a poor strike rate so went the other way, If i win Tatts i'm going to buy a horse and call it Punter's lament.

If he plays well and we get through it might be the kruze cup

WFA for fillies and mares race so i I am going to trust the ratings. Daysee Doom, with 111 rates on top, has pretty good first up record (5: 2 - 2), likes it good (14: 6 - 3) and the distance (6: 4 - 2). Seems pretty good vale. My other selection is Savanna Amour. At 106 has a good enough rating, good win last start in unsuitable ground. Likes the track ( 3: 2 - 0) and the good going (12: 6 - 3). In this class is 4: 2 - 1 so has the runs on the board. Barrier one might be a concern if she gets boxed in but if she gets a nice smother might be able to trail leader and be there at the pointy end. Good luck punters

Tatts tiara gets my vote. It's hard enough doing oz form!

Absolutely. And its location means it would get thousands walking past it on each of these occasions, pre and post games, and be a natural meeting spot.

Absolutely. In addition to things such as apartments and gym i think a bar would do super well in that location. My thinking is less a dees social club, more a commercial bar that we own and operate. There is bugger all in that area, particularly since the pub directly opposite closed. That pub was heaving pre and post games. The Hilton/pullman is a woeful place for a drink. Expensive and awful atmosphere. I went to Nixons (what a shocking name) after the doggies game. It is in a crap location and is a pretty crappy pub but it was packed full of dees fans singing he song and celebrating as i'm sure it is after every game (obviously with other supporters). Jolimont would attract even more people and not be a dead area during the week - well not as dead. A half decent pub/bar with decent food would make an absolute killing.