binman

Its funny, there always seems to be one or two horses that makes up ground on leaders tracks. Like Seberate (at 15-1) who i backed in the last. I reckon some horse like having 2 or 3 to chase and relax into it. The problem comes lining that form up next time and i reckon many tipsters over rate how good the run was ('made ground against the pattern' blah blah blah). Leaders tracks are a real issue, particularly at Caulfield. Some horse simply don't have chance either because they miss the kick, have poor luck in running or are natural swoopers and don't like racing on speed. The problem for me is i do my form and we put all of our bets on a the start of the day so if i guess it is going to be really leaderish and i'm wrong i'm in trouble. Also by the end of the day it oftens evens up (which i take into account) but not always!

Looks like i'm right that the track is a bit leadrish. I have always thought Punter's Lament would be a great name for a horse. I have had my fist punters lament for the carnival already. Hayes has dome brillinatly with 2 years olds in the filast 2-3 years and i had planned to back his horses in race 2 and 3. Late change of mind say me just do so in the 3rd race and going with Pure elation instead in the second. Annoying to see Enbihaar win at 10s and then my two outsiders get back and have no chance in the next.

Down hearted was another horse i though was way unders. Just not a winner

Shoals i would have to say in Caulfield but Itz invicible is a good thing and in a very small field reasonable value, so lets say Itz invicible I bet with a mate and he does all the actual bets (i can't manage online bookies - too dangerous) and i do the selections and email accross to him. I have cut and pasted above and edited to remove staking.

Some comments about today. I reckon Tosen Stardom i way unders. I think the track will favour front runners as it will be bone dry and leaderish and like last last year will come home but too late. Inside draw no help. Very disappointed Black heart Bart is out as i had him on top and great value. I also think Silent Sedition is too short.

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded). Caulfield Race 1 no 1 Goldstream win Race 2 no 9 Pure elation win Race 3 no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both win Race 4 no 1 Gailo Chop win Race 5 no 1 Shoals win and place no 6 Smart coupe Race 6 no 2 Super Cash win Race 7 no 10 Scarecrow and box trif 1,2, 10 Race 8 no 10 Tshahitsi and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord of the Sky Race 9 no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta JC Mark Zahra Warwick Farm Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper Race 3 trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit Race 4 no 7 O’lordy win Race 5 no 1 Sanctimonius win Race 6 no 1 Single bullet place Race 7 no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4 Race 9 no 6 Echo effect win JC Blake Shinn Morphettville Race 5 no 1 Itz Invincible win good luck punters!

G'day punters. Sorry don't do mulits. Bookies love them for a reason. I use Winning Post for my form, have done for many years. Unfortunately it now comes out Friday morning (except in selected newsagents) meaning i have to do my form Friday night. It takes me a good 2-3 hours to from properly for both Melbourne and Sydney. I'll do my form tomorrow night/sat morning and post my best on Sat morning

Hasn't Lyon quit Footy classified (or perhaps was shown the door) ?

Agree. Used to love it. Loved the diff types of players with my favorites being the serve volley players. Also liked players with a good touch. Too much power tennis these days

Backhand. Forehand.. Forehand. Backhand. Winner.

Yes, agree. Tennis has to be the worst sport in the world for radio. Just behind motor sports. I have actually listened to golf on an internet radio stream (majors where i haven't been able to watch on TV) and found it actually works quite well. Sort of like test cricket, but with the hushed tones of green side commentators.

Who will listen to radio coverage of the Super Bowl? Bizarre decision.

I really like Waterhouse trained horses in Sydney, but more so 1400 meters and above. I love that they are mostly front runners as you always get a good sight and there is no doubt that taken in totality horses that race on speed win more races. I hate backing a horse that gets caught in traffic or cop interference, which is obviously more of a risk for back markers. Front runners also even out the skill difference in jockeys (because jockeys at the front just have to focus on tempo, not weaving through traffic or timing their run), allow a jockey to control race temp and crucially in Spring ensure they are better placed on those days where there is a leaders bias (which seems to be happening more often).

Ta

Happy to have horse racing only thread.

Agree on name change of thread. A few years back i started a punting thread but got no traction so haven't bothered. I saw this one and assumed it was out of date. I love the horses but largely focus on the Autumn and Spring Carnivals. I also like footy betting, the line mainly. Autumn carnival is my favourite carnival. It stretches from aprox next weekend through to Easter, with ours first and then Sydney (and obviously their Autumn carnival is much better than their short Spring Carnival) whereas over Spring they overlap meaning big outlays. Also i find the form is more reliable over Autumn. In Melbourne there are smaller fields than Spring but importantly the form lines are much more reliable and easier to line up, with many horses coming through the same races. Also the consistently firm tracks help and some horses just like this time of year more. In Sydney the wet tracks make picking winners easier as it they knock out half the field. The Spring carnival is a lottery. The odds on futures are tempting but realistically they are always super weighted in the bookies favour given how many horses don't get to their GF. I only ever take them a week or so out, and even then not very often. Actually the only race i really look at for futures is the Blue Diamond. I liked the fight Long leaf has been showing but Olivander also appeals with how it has been running on.

Love it! Watched a few minutes, very good. Will watch in full at home. Looks very similar to the one i'm staring at right now. I have detached the speakers to increase the stereo effect. Because that's how i roll. I had a super cheap boom box as a teenager in the 80's. Fondly recall a tape a mate gave me - one side with Loudan Wainright III and the other Hendrix. Loved both but it was the first time i'd heard Hendrix (and Loudan for that matter) and it blew my mind, crap sound and all.

There's a word you don't often see on a footy forum. Or anyhere for that matter, Much the shame. I have an old JVC boom box in my office, prbably from the 80's, which has a fine tune adjustment. Doesn't seem to do much., like the eq meters!

He has excellent genes

I have been told market analysis shows lots of tradies listen to Smooth FM, which is why you apparently (i have never listened to it - no really) will hear ads for things such as power tools on it

Agree, a terrific summary of the landscape.I really liked Leach but have barely bothered since. Like mazer i just can't see where any new listeners are going to come from. I'll probably give Wheatley a go but i hardly ever listen to the radio between 9 and 12 which understand is his slot?

Hoges is just indicating where he is un the pecking order up forward

Love a player with a typo in his name

do you think he will put on size in an AFL environment drunkn? Dec must love the Casey vibe at the club.

Hence my joke