binman

G'day punters. My best was Gailo Chp so will have to find another. Best Bet: Shillelagh Best value: Shillelagh Best longshot (each way): Supido Lay of the day: kalemantari Good luck

Speaking of value, i know this is a horse rac8ng thread but Melbourne is currently 2.25 against the cats. That is brilliant value. If i was framing that market i would have us slight favs at about 1.80. Might have to have a go at that (and perhaps also over 39.5) and unlike futures in racing there is no risk of us not starting!

No. In that scenario better to anchor redzel (assuming you really think its going to win) and avoid the temptation to go wide in the other races. Lets say you had redzel as an anchor and had say only two in the other for $40 you get the quaddie 5 times. It might only pay $80 but you get $400. You might also put a small saver on a horse in redzels race to cover redzel getting rolled (like the redkirk warrior example - a horse i love as i backed it in tge Newmarket last year) But most people would spend their $40 by something like 2, 5 and 4 in the non ancor legs. And at best double their money. The tab love it. Much better value to be had to anchor a horse that is say 2.70 - 3.00 as usually there is a horse at similar odds that most quaddie punters can't resist putting in.

Dixie blossoms had the rating to overcome the negatives in its form i didn't like. Good win. As i have said we put our bets on in the morning and i work my stake out around the price it is then. She was $4 at 11am. Came right in. With quaddies sometimes going one out with a really short fav can mean its hard to get value, particularly when horses near the top of the market win the other legs . It can better to take a punt on a shortish horse rather than a raging fav you like in a small field. Or else else take the short fav and don't go too wide in rhe other legs and try and get it a few times .

Did you pick rimraam or the other one? Rimraam was terrific value. Good get. The early quaddie at Flemington was like Sydney's usually are. Small fields in first few legs with one staying race. My mate who I bet with hates quaddies (and all exotics bar thise in the big four races for that matter) because of the takeout and he figures it us better long term just to put more on tgecwinners. And with good reason. We never get them. But I was super confident in those first three legs.. went wide obviously in the last, a race that was diabolical and I out in every horse I marked as a chance. You have have at least one stand out to get 100% (who wants 5%?).

At Flemington got Nomotaj, Aloft, Hear the Chant and Flippant and snagged the early quaddie (taking Hear the Chant and Aloft one out, Oregon Day and Flippant in the third leg and 10 horses in the last leg - i actually watched the third leg last, having missed that race. Fun because Oregon Day and Flippant were the only chances 200 out). I also snagged the trifecta in the 8th boxing up 3 horses ( i backed Crystal dreamer and i'm Wesley and thought the latter was going to win). In Sydney i got the Winx trif x 5, Dixie Blossoms and Osborne Bulls and in Morphetville got the etta james Master of Art quinella. Top day.

I had a huge day. Six straight out winners, a good trifecta (the 8th iin melb), a good quinella (in Adelaide) and the early quaddie in melb. Top day.

Well my confidence in the first half of the day has been well placed - at least at Flemington. No winners at randwick as of yet but backed the first four winners at Flemington and nailed the early quaddie. Twice. I love days when you are up early because the stress of losing is taken away. Top wins by Aloft and Hear the Chant, which were both great odds.

I backed Spin. Thought he'd get there

Are you Dermot Brererton?

G'day punters. Had to get a train from Bairnsdale today so had plenty of time to do my form very thoroughly. I'm reasonably confident for the first half of the day but things get harder as the day goes on, particularity at Flemington. That said not as hard as the last 3 weeks. I thinks there are some good bets, some horses that are too short and because of that some value. I'm going to add another category - lay of the day. Best bet: Aloft Best value: Frolic Bets long shot (each way): Flemington Race 5 no 14 La Belle Jude Lay of the day: can't split Santos and Alizee Good punting

Very tricky day. here's my tips: best bet: gailo chop (good vale too, i think he is an energing stating satr and hrtnell won't catch him) Best value: snitty kitty Long shot/each way: Lord of the SKy Good luck all

Yep. My mate puts our bets on. Hopefully we got best fluc as it came in from 14s

I like him too. I backed him and Royal rapture who is alos good value. Super tricky day, particularly at Flemington and on days like this you can back a couple of horse in some races and still make a good profit (assuming one of them wins!). Have done this a few times today

I was tempted to make my bets bet Mark Zahra in the jockey challenge. Was terrific odds at 2.80. Good start from him with an early double and will be al but impossible to beat from here given the second fav Williams is yet to score point. I backed Clark for the JC in Sydney so whilst i didn;t back Santos 9forgot yout tip 77 - foolish) i was happy he got up as Clark was riding it.

Best bet Randwick Race 4 no 2 Deploy Bets value Randwick Race 8 no 1 Frolic Best longshot (or each way if you prefer) Flemington Race 6 no 5 Rimraam

Indeed. I dont mind the odd exotic much to my mates chagrin as the take out by tge bookies is so high and the long terms return well in their favour

My mate who i bet with is a huge Don Scott fan. Framing the market properly is critical no doubt and perhaps equally important is staking (which of course is related).

An edit/change to the above. Best bets are never going to just the best chance of winning, regardless of odds as sometime a horse that meets that criteria is going to be way to short to bother with, Winx for example. Last week the horse most likely to win anywhere in the country was She Will reign given the class edge and field size. But way too short to bother at $1.20 (unless you want to risk 10k). So my best bet definition would be: Best bet (the horse with the best chance of wining at backable odds - usually something like 1.70 and up in a field of say 8 horses, $2 for fields of 8-12 and $2.50 in fields over 12) Perhaps the bets idea is for each of us to define our best bet according to our own criterion, but we probably should know what that criteria is.

I agree on nominating an each way special. Or more accurately a bets longshot as i tend not to like backing each way. I usually prefer backing for a win for all horses, with my long shots often a saver in a race where i back something shorter. That said i wilI sometimes back a place if i think it is value (some horses, like Downhearted just don't win but often place). The other bet type is best value. Which is a little confusing i guess, in so far it is folly to back any horse that does not represent value (ie is unders) and really getting this aspect right is the key to winning in the long term. But what i mean about best value is a horse that i think is well overs ie over its true odds and therefore represents good value. To be really good value it needs to be over 4-1 or so (if shorter you need to put a sizable bet on to get value). To further confuse things is i guess a best bet could be the one you think is best value. but leaving that point aside how about each week we nominate: Best best (the horse i/you think is the best chance of winning, regardless of odds - logic would suggest that these are usually likely to be short) Best value (the horse is that well overs, in your opinion) Bets longshot (lets say a horse paying over $10) Using that criteria, last week my selections would have been: Best best: Itz Invicible/Gailo Chop Best value: Black Heart bart, before its scratching obviously and Super Cash after Bets long shot: Lord of the Sky

From the above i hard two hard luck stories. Backed Smart Coupe for a place (which i rarely do ie back the pace) but i thought it would lead and prove very hard to run down and thought was terrific value for a place. I also thought Lord of the Sky was chance in the Orr, in part because it is likes to lead but it is also an under rated horse who has a pretty good rating and was way unders. Had a little on the win and more on the place. It loomed up and i though it was with a chance but it obviously peaked on its run. going forward i think Gallo Chop will do well and Merchant Navy will love Flemington

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor. The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on. My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in. But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use.

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and thought my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4! Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand.

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above. But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

Never in doubt!