binman

G'day punters. This weekend is the weekend my mate and i kick off our spring season on the punt. Love the run in from here to when the carnival proper begins. Always some great value and i think the next few weeks in Sydney are great from a punting perspective - particularly if wet as it narrows the chances. I look forward to buying the Winning Post on Friday morning and starting my form on the train into town. Will post my best bets on Saturday morning. I'm not into sports multis so happy for this thread to focus primarily on the ponies. That said happy to offer up my two best footy bets for remainder of the season. I have pretty good strike rate with the footy so if others want me to post my two best i will continue to do so

Very pleased the line in the gws game came in to 12.5. Would have spewed if that big game choker tex cost me me $

My best footy bets: Gold coast v tigers game to be over the Total Match Point (TMP) of 167.5 Comment: will be a low to no pressure game and the tigers will score easily and not be too fussed about giving GC some cheapies. I would set the line at 175 so goo value GWS to make their line of 15.5 v Crows Comment: Crows have nothing left to play for and players will to want to get injured. GWS have everything to play for and need a win to shore up a top 4 spot. Crows also coming off a high pressure derby. Good value Other's to consider if looking for multis (which i don't): Brisbane line of 25.5 looks tempting as they are in pretty good form and i reckon the dogs v bulldogs TMP of 178.5 is too short given there won't be much pressure and the roos to make their line of 22.5 is also good value given the dogs are limping to the line and roos want/need percentage

Total match points, which was 155.5. A bet that in previous years have done pretty well wirh and was my main footy betting option. But very few this season because unlike last few years has been super variable. Though if you had taken unders every game you would be well up.

Fortunately my mate disagreed with my tigers line bet. But agreed with the tmp bet. So a good win.

My best bets for this round of footy Richmond to make their line of 15.5 Comments: The Total Match Point (TMP) line is only 155.5 which is the only reason i can see for the line being at 15.5. At the G the tigers are a 5 goal better side than the cats and if there is some rain about (which is why the TMP is so low) it will help the Tigers as rain suits their hyper pressure style and conversely hurts the Cats as it will negate Hawkins. So a line of 15.5 is terrific value. By the by the forecast is for showers to clear so 155.5 TMP is pretty low, though it is bound to be a high pressure affair. Roos to make their line of -2.5 Comments: Yes Higgins is out, which is a big blow and it is Lions home game but i cannot believe Lions are starting favorites in this match. North are pushing for finals and a loss would really hurt them. Surely the Roos have the greater motivation. I will add however that my mate who i bet with has send his weekly email with his best bets and has the lions as one of them! So we will be trying to convince each other the other is wrong.

Last Friday, just before the bombers game. I actually suggested the bet on a DL thread and advised if keen people should get on before the ess game as if they were to lose would come into about 1.80. I was pretty close!

A long time DZ. They do not have the pace to hurt us on the outside and we have them covered on contested ball, which is really the cornerstone of their 'brand 'and has been for many years. That said 1.45 is short. But as we both know the odds are perhaps the most reliable indicator of the relative chances in any given game.

g'day punters, I can feel it in the air, the unmistakable spring vibe. One of my favourite times of year. Love the couple of months before the spring carnival starts in earnest. My mate and i usually start back up on our spring campaign in mid to late August so soon now. Can't wait. In the man time will have to content myself with the dees still being in finals contention. I might post my bets footy bet of the round on a Friday for the last few games and finals. I like my bet now of the swans to miss the finals at $3. Had an up and won footy betting season but have made a profit so can't complain. Was well up this round coming into Sunday's game and then managed to get them ALL wrong to break even.

And bad dad jokes at that (i am an aficionado of dad jokes). The coverage goes for so long, wit so much filler. People seem to love roaming brian. Can't stand it. Treats it all as a joke and brings zero insight. Incredible access and wasted. We could actually get some proper insight if done well.

Great. We're on. Id still love jacky boy hitting targets inside 50. Obviously you're rr no fan. Gives me an idea for an avatar......

I think we will make finals. Lets have a friendly wager. Winner chooses loser's avatar until the eve of round one next year. Good bet for you given your confidence

I reckon we beat crows, suns and swans.

Some excellent points there Choke. I heard some fella call SEN or 3aw and say that perhaps the ratings have dropped because the commentators are so poor. Got cut off and all in the studio laughed and dismissed it/him as joke and moved on straight away. i don't think he was joking and he makes a great point. I can't stand channel 7 or Fox commentary teams or how the game is presented. Fair dinkum how someone like Breton could be paid to mangle the English language and provide zero insight is beyond a joke To your excellent list of ways they could improve Choke i'd add having expert comments from actual bloody experts, who can provide some actual analysis. Their only criteria for 'experts' seem to be ex players. Daisy is the only one who i have heard actually bring something positive to the coverage. Had to laugh in the last crows game when some wacka noted our accuracy and she pointed out it is largely due to the fact when on our game plan involves kicking many of goals from within 20 metres of the goals (and proceed to do exactly that all game). Sh did her homework and the others were clueless - good get Daisy some dick said. The footage of Ling jumping for joy from his boundary line spot as a special comment man when they won made me sick. 7 highlighted it and made a virtue of it. That said all you need to know about how they go about covering the game. Oh and how about some proper anlaysis at the quarter breaks of the sort Craig Foster did in the SBS world cup coverage that actually helps understand what is happening (or not as the case may be) tactically and strategically. Or highlighting specif players. Properly.

Hannan out with a knee. Apparently.

Hypothetically if it is two weeks then back for the Suns game. Which you'd reckon they would not play him in if not 100% cherry ripe. Back the following week against the Swans.

Well we can develop players - without the aid of drugs at that

I reckon he will get another rookie year. Big key defenders who can mark and kick ok don't grow on trees.

Absolutely. I said early this season that it will be a very long season, even more so than the last couple as the defensive intesity has gone up a level and the game is more balistic than ever. .Goody has said on a number of occasions it will be the team that develops the most that will win. Which is code for the team that peaks at the right time like tigers and dogs did.

Very good. Except we want him to sign. Shine too i guess.

Sung to the of Shine on you crazy Diamond. Something like Sign on you crazy brayshaw...

As i said in the game day thread i have a feeling he will take his chance. Looks fit and strong.

Liked this one: 'Oliver is the AFL’s best player across the past 18 months when the ball is on the ground, winning almost 20 per cent more possessions than seasoned stars such as Patrick Dangerfield, Trent Cotchin, Josh Kennedy and like.'

Exactamundo

Add hannebery and it will be a tough midfield to break into