binman

Good post, with some excellent points, one being that it will be nigh on impossible to engineer one on one battles, particularly of the marking variety.

Funny you should say that. I heard a fella on SEN radio yesterday arvo (a professor of biomechanics or some such) that has been advising the AFL for years on issues related to interchange numbers and a fatigue. Really interesting. He made the point that with all the congestion and the ball being trapped in forward lines players are in fact resting on the ground more now than when the interchange cap first came in. He also mad the point that the fitness of the players has out paced the impact of reduced interchanges. He said he would go to 40 but cautioned that the impact of going to 40 in terms of players fatigue would be short lived. I actually don't mind the congestion and intensity.

More on the Guys that make stupid mistakes aren't AA defenders theme. As i noted in the post match thread there is a brilliant (i think new) part of AFL.com that Telstra live pass holders can access called Stats Pro where you can watch edited video of every involvement in every game of every player (for all of last years and this years games0. I watched Oscar's video of his involvements in the Ess game. Steady as rock and barely an error. I then watched Jake Lever's video. His first three involvements were a silly free to laverde from a one on one contest, a kick from deep inside their 50 that he shanked (albeit under pressure) straight to a bombers player and the third was a kick on the full under no pressure. To be fair things picked up after that but he has made any number of stupid mistakes this year (as i have said imagine if those mistakes came from Oscar!). But my point is not that he is average. My point is that some posters have already anointed him a star who is a future AA lock., which to be fair is not crazy given he was in the squad last year. Yet he we have seen in six games Lever make many stupid mistakes. Hibberd did make AA last year. And guess what he made stupid mistakes too. It happens. But some players get criticised more when it plays into an existing confirmation bias.

Good get. More from that article: Hardwick lauded Rance as perhaps the best one-on-one player in the AFL, but also acknowledged that the defender’s occasional costly brain fades, among others from teammates, was an area the Tigers needed to address if they were to improve. Rance limited the influence of Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt (one goal) and collected 19 disposals himself to be one of the best players afield. However, one passage of play summed up the Rance package. Late in the last quarter, he beat Riewoldt in another duel deep in defence only to send a short pass straight into the arms of Saints substitute Darren Minchington, who slotted his second goal. It was another inexplicable "Alex Rance Moment". Alex is an outstanding athlete as well but the decision-making under duress when you're tired, (he) comes a little bit undone. "You've got to take the good with the bad (with Rance). "I'm going to put a huge wrap on the bloke – I don't think there's a better one-on-one player in the comp at the moment than Alex. He wins the majority of his contests. The other stuff we'll probably take now and then, but I think he's a great talent." That article was written in June 2014. Rance was 24, nearly 25 years old at that point. Oscar has just turned 22.

What on earth are you talking about? I never said a a player doesn't have to tackle or chase someone if it isn't his man. That would be stupid. In any case as i (actually) said Oscar did pretty well to get back. He did chase, hard. Just didn't catch him. He wasn't the one who put a 'lame arse effort in'. His mid field teammates are guilty of that but not Oscar. But this is why is stopped debating you about Oscar. There is no point. Your views are etched in stone. And before we fall into into silly name calling lets stop here and agree to disagree.

That is so funny Jnr. Dunstall is wrong in his call (unsurprisingly because he is clueless) and you simply repeated his mistake. No way could he hold him up. Smith was running full tilt and is twice as fast as Oscar. Gary Lyon did not agree with Dunstall (he agrees about reward for effort for the bombers) and no other commentator made a comment about it. Biased? me? Again that is so funny.

His man? His man was Daniher not a small forward. So i assume you are serious then. you honestly think Oscar made an error in that case? I have heard everything. I don't want to be rude but i have to say i can't help but judge your football nous more harshly that i previously did.

You honestly cannot be serious. A howler? You honestly think he made errors in that video? No i don't believe it, you must be having a lend. In no way can Oscar be blamed for that goal. No way. If you watch this video from the 14 second mark you will see that the culprit is initially Oliver for coughing up the ball on the wing, then the midfield for allowing an easy handball to Zaharakis who is all by himself in the corridor and is allowed to take a few steps and under no pressure boot the ball 50 metres to Smiths advantage over the back. And when Zharakis kicks it Oscar is about 10 -15 metres from the spot where it is marked and the same distance parallel from Smith. he had no chance to cut that off. He did pretty well to get back actually. I can't make out the dees player on the half back flank but whoever it is makes no effort to pressure Zaharakis, for instance by diving to smother. Pathetic and the an example of the very thing that causes us to leak goals. Though some still prefer to blame defender in such scenarios as if it is still 1992 and the zone hasn't been invented and only a handful of players players get multiple tackles. But you think Oscar made a howler? Beggars belief. But hilariously provides a concrete example to illistrate my point about confirmation bias.

Is Lan glands the name of the condition?

In other injury news Lynch from GC out for at least 4 weeks. Shame for him. Good news for us. That said Oscar would be disappointed not to get a crack at him and try and add Lynch to the notches on his belt. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/lynch-sidelined-with-knee-injury-20180501-p4zcmr.html

Good thread bump PA. Quite good value going back through some of the old posts in it. I had to chuckle with your assertion TMac was no forward - you and PD both. We all get things wrong. Most are able to admit it as this thread attests to. There were quite a few posters who were critics of TMac's younger brother, but most have at the very least conceded he goes ok. Some will never be able to admit when they are wrong though. Two in particular come to mind - jnrmac and STMJ. And it is instructive that in recent posts on this thread both still can't get past their blinding confirmation bias. Take this quote after the hawks game from STMJ, where even whilst trying to acknowledge TMac's younger brother he can't help give him back handed compliments and a decent whack: 'And for the record, I agree he showed great improvement in certain areas in the first half of the Hawthorn game. He was genuinely making a positive impact in contests and turning them into wins rather than floating about in an insignificant way. His kicking is usually very good. His defending needs improving along with his general intensity, body positioning, reflexes and awareness' And this from Jnrmac the following day: 'The talk on here about Oscar improving out of sight and being our key defender is hilarious. He has played OK this year and hasn't disgraced himself at all but he is still a deer in the headlights, has little or no physical presence or awareness, cannot compete one on one, is slow with the turning circle of the titanic and rarely impacts a contest. His disposal is pretty good and that is about his best trait. Yes he is developing and that is great. As a Melbourne supporter I want him to succeed but it will be a long slow process at this rate.' I posted my quote above after last years QB game. I started the joke about the #OMacmyths because there were so many stupid comments about him. Not long after that post i decided i would stop defending TMac's younger brother as it was getting tedious refuting so much silly rubbish and it was evident that logical, fact based argument would have no impact on some posters So i said i would not mention his name again and let his football do the talking. Of course i struggled to stop myself defending him, hence my, admittedly silly, TMac's younger brother work around. Well i don't need to defend him anymore. The argument has well and truly been won. In my favor. It is evident to all that Oscar McDonald is the real deal. I quoted the above post (i could have chosen any number of my posts from last year - or 2016 for that matter) to highlight that what is happening this year is no great mystery, has not come from nowhere and his potential has always been there for all to see. Most actually did - it was really only a noisy minority who did not get it (or couldn't as the case may well be). And of course the FD also understood what they had in Oscar. Last year i posted the footywire stat comparisons of Lever and Oscar McDonald. I noted i wasn't suggesting that Oscar was as good a player, but none the less given they had played very similar roles and were almost identical in age, number of games played etc etc they were a good duo to compare. I noted that on raw stats that Oscar more than held his own. Of course some railed at the comparison. Doesn't look so silly now. Beter than lever. No. But from what i have seen of Lever firsthand this year Oscar is a much better kick and a far superior one on one defender - pretty important attributes for a defender. I also put up the same age stats of Tmac and Oscar. Again Oscar more than held his own. For what its worth my opinion is that Oscar will be a better player then his brother when their careers are compared. And on the issue of confirmation bias, if you are in any doubt it is real phenomenon and makes it impossible for some posters to hold balanced, accurate views on certain players i offer this quote from jnrmac, responding to Jaded's comment that Oscar never panics: 'Honestly this is just pure rubbish, He has had a really good start to the year, no question but have a look at the first foray Essendon made into its fwd line where he loses the one on one and then allows his man to run off the mark into an open goal as an example' I can't do gifs but look at this video from the 14 second mark, which shows that very goal. At least i think it does - they had had at least 6 inside 50s by then (and two points), unsurprisingly given it halfway through the quarter, so obviously not the first foray and nothing else resembles jnrs description. Firstly Oscar does not lose 'the one on one'. It isn't a one on one contest. Oscar is at least 10 metres in front of Smith and the ball is kicked well over his head (because there is zero pressure on the kick). Secondly he doesn't allow 'his man to run off the mark into an open goal'. Smith, a small quick forward, marks running with the flight of the ball, doesn't stop so never gets put behind his mark and runs into an open goal. Oscar had very little to no chance of holding Smith up. Its not even Oscar's man for petes sake. If you only read jnrs version and had not watched the game you would assume the that Oscar had made two errors and cost us goal. And maybe he believes that. But the reality is different. That is confirmation bias, pure and simple. I am sure if it was Lever not Oscar the description of the event would have been completely different ('who was on Smith?, where was the pressure on the Zharakis') Good on you Oscar. Your improvement has been steady though your short career and you have had terrific start to the season, besting some of the best forwards in the game. Having just turned 22 you are one of the most promising KPD's in the league.

I tipped Schism last week at Caulfield, but it was scrathed. Good horse

So my selection for the trifecta is Kingsgauard. Will roll along on speed and be hard to get past. No bets bets, though having looked at race 6 i had a quick glance at some other races at hawksbury. Victorem will be hard to beat i would have thought. And White Moss and Up and rolling will on speed and hard to beat. Both are pretty good value i think.

Going to 1400 from 1000 is better than going back in distance. I usually draw a line thoufh horses going back in sistance, though if they are sprinters 1200 back to 1100 (or at worst back to 1100) or 1100 back to 1000 can be ok if they are simply better at the 1000. DZ is not a spinter though is it? Il do the form for the Hawksbury cup.

I hope this is supposed to be a joke post. If it is then you should know its not funny. If not a joke post then.....

Perhaps you'r right and it was my confirmation bias at work.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one rjay. I don't think they should put out comms for every little thing, i think they should have been a little clever and mentioned it in an informal way to manage the 'narrative' Why - because even if not leaked it would have been noticed during the game that Maccas was not in the box and in the hot house that is the AFL in this town had the potential to become a story. And my evidence? It did become a story and Mahoney had to react to it.

Again i wonder about the external communication by the dees. Add this to the growing list of communication blunders (the departure of watts, the camp, the silence after the round 23 pies game, the woeful website etc). I mean as if in the AFL fishbowl that exists in Melbourne someone was not going to pick this story up (and really it is unbelievable it was a person contracted by the MFC who ran with it). Sheesh. Comms 101 is to get ahead of stories, which could have easily happened in a casual, informal way. For eg mahoney booking a interview on the weekend and responding to the inevitable question about how we respond to last weeks game, with an answer like: 'We have looked at the game as an opportunity to improve all all aspects of how we go about things, including how we can better communicate key messages to our players when the opposition gets a run on. It is easy to forget how young our list is and we have two key leaders in TMac and Jack out so this week we are going to have Macca go back to his role that he played so brilliantly for the last 3 years as a key person communicating directly to players on the bench and conveying messages from the box' Do we do this? No, instead once again we are reactive and in damage control. And to be honest comments such as: 'That’s been the change and there isn’t much more to add to it than that.' begs the question 'well perhaps there is not much more to add but i'm really interested in the bit you are leaving out ' Amateur hour.

So that me done for Autumn fellas. Me and my betting partner had a pretty good day on Saturday, particularly in Sydney where i was fortunate to get the pattern right (on the speed, near the fence). In addition to my best bet (tough win by a horse that is a winner - good odds) my best value bet, Higher Ground saluted - just, the caller called it the other way around, nice surprise. Ironically also got the next in a close photo with the only horse that defied the pattern to win running on in Moss Trip. Very good win and a horse to follow. But the punters lament is it could have been a huge day with a touch more luck. We had six seconds! That included a 20-1 pop in Adelaide (didn't have it each way). And i thought Guerrier in Sydney was going to win, but just ran out of gas (and unfortunately just out of the placings as i had it each way). I was also a bit annoyed not to get something from the Le Romain trapeze Artist quinella, which paid a remarkable 10.80. Crazy. Thye were the two horse i really liked. Should have boxed up a quinela in addition to the box trifecta i took (or even better instead of it). And even more stupidly did not take the Demonland trif! Also annoyed weir elected to run Brave smash. Clearly does not like firm tracks. Good luck on the punt fellas. To keep an interest i'll do the form for the elected DL weekly trifecta race, post it on this thread and even put a little money on it! Roll on Spring!

My best bet for the weekend is Sprightly Lass at Caulfied. Some very short horses at Caulfield and i think most will salute - French Emotion, Widgee Turf, Kiwia, Nature Strip and Cliff's Edge. Of those only Widgee Turf and perhaps Kiwia are backable really. But i think Sprightly Lass is overs at 3.60 as i think there is only one real danger in that race, Property. The form through Dothraki is very solid and it always gives a great sight. Best value for the day (apart from Sprightly Lass) Higher Ground at at Randwick Best longshots for the day Mo Femme at Morphetville and Guerrier at Randwick

Have only just finished making my final selections and emailing our bets to my betting partner. I found this race super hard in terms of choosing another winner bet in so far as i i kept coming back to trapeze artist (though am concerned it had its grand final last week). I'm going to have to say Le Romain, but really only because Brave Smash and Trapeze Artist were taken. A good horse but again - and at the risk of being stubborn and repeating my error of last week, i'm thinking on speed will be the go with the rail out 6 metres and no wind to bother front runners. Le Romain will be running on hard and i think pinch a place, but of course can win. For my bet in that race i have actually landed on a box trif of these 3 horses and no win bet - which is very unusual for me. Won't pay much but i find it hard to see what else might place - though I'm somewhat has good rating

I won't do my form to Friday. But trapeze artist was super impressive kast start. I backed le romain last start at huge odds.. A very talented horse but doesn't win out of turn. Those sort of horses often upset the aplle cart. Like catchy an wstb last sat.

I've got one more week in me Macca. I forgot about the All Aged. My Autumn is sputtering a bit so a chance to go out with a good day. Me and my mate are well up this Autumn but have been scratchy the last few weeks. That said we have avoided wipe outs (those awful days when you get no, or very few collects , which are hard to take when you put as many bets on as we do) which is critical n terms of turning a profit and when we have lost it hasn't been too bad. Actually ended up making a profit on Saturday, which was a pleasant surprise because it most definitely wasn't a leaders track. Had to laugh though with Qulaista leading all the way in the last. Which was good because we were on it. I actually watched that before the Sydney cup and thought there was every chance we had snagged the quaddy as we had 4 good chances. Unfortunately i decided to leave WSTB out (which i almost knew would cots me as i did so). Our bets result for the day, believe it or not was the Winx race. Was super confident in Gailo Chop running second so slammed the quinella (which remarkably paid $6.20) and stood it out second in short trif which we got a bunch of times. Happy to give trif numbers in selected races but still think we should put our best bets up. I like to see what people have selected.

Oh oh. Fotoo came from last. On the rails! Abort Will Robinson! Unfortunately too late

In terms of trying to guess the pattern of races it is obviously a bit riky if you punt as i do which is putting all bets on at the start of the day. If i get the pattern wrong i struggle. Last week i read it the same and picking Houtzen was a result of that. But it actually ended up playing ok and horses from mid field had their chances and i couldn't sang any more. That said i had remarkable number of seconds last week (across 3 states). Five or six i think from memory. In an ideal world i would put the first couple on and get a read of the pattern and then adjust selections as required. But my model of punting with a mate doesn't allow that as neither of us can focus on the races enough during the day (other than listening to them) Determining bets between races can be very time consuming, even if you have done the form thoroughly and have narrowed selections down to a handful of chances (which is how i do form)