binman

If you were sitting anywhere within a 100 metre radius of me yesterday you would have no doubt how passionate, frustrated and disappointed I was. My throat is ruined. On a related point, I have not generally been critical of dees fans not showing up. But yesterday was pathetic. 29k on a perfect Saturday arvo for footy. And I'm positive it would have made a difference if there was more vocal passionate dees at the ground. For one thing we might have actually won a God damn holding the ball free. So anyone who is on board the dees are rubbish train who could have gone yesterday (i dont mean those who cant, live interstate, have mobility issues, had a funeral, were getting married, have covid etc etc) but chose not to - you are part of the problem not the solution. Buy a mirror.

Herein lies the problem. I suspect we have a very different take on what constitutes 'excuses and fluff'. As for being ostracised for being passionate and disappointed, that ain't gonna happen. The point I was trying to make is that tge passionate and disappointed voices are well in truly in the majority and that it is in fact the more measured voices that are shouted down. That's counter intuitive in the real world - but not in footy forum world. We have seen this exact movie before at this point before in 2021 and 2022. And no doubt this time last year the cats footy boards were much rhe same. But as I say people can choose however they want to process losses. Different strokes for different folks. But personally I'd prefer not to get shouted down for views that contradict those of the majority. And my experience is that is, by and large, what happens at this point in the season.

This. People can obviously choose their own post loss adventure. But there's not much point engaging if you have a contrary perspective to the hysteria. The counter intuitive element is the hysteria is normalised and measured perspectives are dismissed as hysteria or head in the sand stuff. It is a DL thing. And for the third year in a row around round 10 to post bye period it goes into full on mode. Tis the season for anomalous results. One only need to look at yesterday's results for evidence. Four top 8 sides rolled by teams outside the 8. Including the cats at a ground they have a 90%, or some such wininning record. I suspect Port will be added to that list today.

Agree.

My prediction for today's game: Coming off an 8 day break i'm hoping the dees haven’t gone hard on the track and are cherry ripe for this game. I think they will be because my gut feeling is this is a target game and the blues game not so much. Part of my rationale is that they didn’t look to rest or manage any players, and brought in Harmes rather than giving say Woey or Howes a game, suggesting to me that they really want some continuity. So my take is based on that assumption. Oliver is a big out in any circumstances, but very big against Freo because it means we are less able to exploit one of their big weaknesses – not enough big bodied quality mids. But even without Oliver, I think we will be too strong at the coal face and will look to hit them hard. It will be a great game for the clearance discussion, because Freo are number 4 in the AFL for clearances (and number one for hit outs) and they are an important element of how they generate scores. But they are 18 for clangers – which is a key stat in this game because we are number one for scores from turnover and if we bring elite heat and pressure we will look to ruthlessly exploit that glaring weakness. Teams are twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance and that equation will be well in our favour today. The ruck duel will be fascinating. I really rate Darcy and Jackson’s form is improving every week. Great challenge for Max and Brody and you’d have to think they are both really looking forward to the battle. But a problem for Freo is that they rely on their rock combo for their clearance domination - and therefore scoring and territory. Against every other team they have an edge in that department. Not against us. So even if we break even that will hurt Freo. I like the ins – Sparrow brings physicality and inside grunt that offsets missing Oliver a bit. Harmes is an another experienced, strong mid/flanker. I have sneaky feeling he might be sent to Brayshaw to limit his influence. And I really like the out for freo in Walters. He is exactly the sort of player who has long given us trouble. But more importantly, Waters out means we don’t have quite the same issue with needing to spread our medium defenders to cover multiple threats. And the biggest threat is Schultz. I’ll be really curious to see who goes to him, but you’d have to think Mcvee will get first crack. Freo like to spread and switch, which I think doesn’t work so well against us as it gives us time to get our defensive structures set up. Which in turn mean we can get our intercept game going. For me a big factor today is the weather. It will be perfect conditions and that means we can take more contested marks, key to our game, and we can better chain out our handballs as we transition forward – something that we really struggled with last week in the wet. And I think this is where the game will be won – on transition. I think the dees will be too powerful, smash them on turnover and on transition and win by 6 goals plus. On the betting front, the odds are fascinating. We opened at an incredibly short 1.38, and rather than drifting as many might have expected (including me), we have instead continued to tighten and at the time of writing we are 1.33 (with a -19 point line). That is very short and suggests to me that the big punters are very confident of a dees win – and perhaps have some inside knowledge about our approach to the game (ie it's a target game). Those odds are too short for mine. I have us as favourite, but my odds would be something like 1.50 with a line of 15 points. Better value is the 167 Total Match Point (TMP) line. We will attack and Freo have been trying to be more attacking in the last few games. Weather is no problems, so i'd have the TMP at 177, so 167 is great value. Recommended bet 10 units on over the TMP @ 1.90.

Watched many games this year OD? I fear you have pulled the wrong rein.

I wonder if Fanning was any good at handball?

Me too.

Agree with all of the above. I actually think there is a similarity to our 2022 season, in that for the first half of last year teasm didnt think they could beat our defence - or us - and came into games on the psycological back foot. Teams come into games against the Pies and even if in front at 3 quarter time belive the Pies wil still roll over them. Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. But a couple of close losses will dint that aura. And lets not forget, in the close games that really mattered last year - their firts final against the cats and their prelim against the Swans - they lost both.

Is that what you were saying about us this time last year OD?

And we had the best ruck of his generation missing for three weeks (four if you count the lions game, which is reasonable given how early that game he was injured), Lever and Hibberd both withdrawn right before games, Petty missing last week and Salem missing the first 9 rounds. We also have had much harder fixture than the Pies in terms of travel and breaks between games. I'm not sure how you could argue they are playing with 'way more confidence'. We are scoring at a clip that we haven't under Goody since 2018 and continue to be defensively sound. After barely topping 100 points last year, we have done so 5 times already. I take your point that they still have to play eagles, roos or hawks. Their percentage will no doubt improve on the back of those games. But the fact remains that after 10 rounds, despite having lost 2 more games than the pies our percentage is 7 points better. Doesn’t scream 'playing with way more confidence' to me. If you came from Mars (planet not stadium) and read all the Pie worship palaver, you'd be justified in thinking they are some generational team that is a lock for this year’s flag. When in reality, as exciting as they are to watch, and as impressive as many of their performances have been this year and last, they were in struggle town for years, lost 2 of 3 finals last year, didn't even make the Grand Final let alone win it and won their last flag 13 years ago. Yet somehow that record is more imposing than ours: just missed finals in 2017 prelim in 2018 just missed finals in 2020 win the flag in 2021 make finals in 2022 after finishing second on the ladder (and yes, out in straight sets, but the pies only won one more final than us last year) not falling out of the top 4 for all but one or two games across two and half seasons(2021, 2022 and 2023) currently sitting fourth at 7-3 with the hardest part of our season travel wise behind us and the highest percentage in the AFL (despite having lost more games than the supposedly high scoring pies and lions) But sure, tell me all about how amazing Collingwood are.

He makes pretty good case to be honest (noting that Maxy missed three games, so those numbers are a little misleading). Darcy is a fantastic ruck.

Where did you get that photo of me?

We were on top this time last year too.

I could not agree more. I'd add that framing each game as some sort of marker for our premiership chances makes it harder to objectively assess the performance on its merits. The Suns and Tiger's games are perfect examples of that phenomena. Many mark our performances in those games down based on where the Tigers and Suns were on the ladder. But both teams brought super pressure and played out of their skins, much like Port. Assessed in isolation, they were impressive wins by us. It matters nought that that both teams have struggled since. Applying some sort of retrospective weighting to our performance based on their current ladder position (or even their prior position) means the games are not properly assessed on their merits. And does a disservice to the Tigers and Port for that matter too. A similar dynamic will play out if Tigers roll Port this weekend - 'see that's how poor we are travelling, even the tigers can beat Port'.

I agree most posters would have them ahead of us in terms of who is more likely to win the flag. But theirs to lose? If you are right, and most do in fact agree with you, this would be the perfect example of what i mean by them being overrated. The Pies are currently $3.75 to win the flag. We are currently equal second favorite with the lions on $5. Personally, if I was to set a market, i'd have the dees favorite at $5, the lions at $5.50 and the pies at $6. But that's me. So, lets' say the market has it got it right and $3.75 for the Pies to win the flag represents the 'true' odds ie they accurately reflect the actual probability of the Pies winning the flag. At those odds, they still fail to win the flag more often than they win it. One only needs to revisit our 2022 season to reinforce that point - at the corresponding point in last year's season we were about $3.75 to win the flag too.

Yep. in fact, that win is probably a better example than the dogs win for the point i'm trying to make. The Swans game is swept up the narrative that the dees haven't beaten anyone, eg 'who have the dees beaten - the dogs, who were poor, the swans who are big sliders, the tigers who are 14th, the underachieving Suns and competition easy beats, the Hawks, Roos and Eagles' blah blah blah. When in reality, the Swans and Dogs wins were both impressive and the Tiger's and the Suns brought serious pressure and heat, played super well and our performance in those games was also very impressive. Even the Hawks and Eagles brought heat.

Yep, fair points.

Not being facetious, but have you watched their games this season? They have not played every game at finals like pressure. Nowhere near it, as evidenced by the fact that they are currently 8th for average contested possession per game (we are 2nd behind the Saints). I have watched all of their games and would argue they were only fully wound up against the Cats, Port, Tigers and the Bombers (and then only in the last q). Their pressure was average in their wins against the Saints, Crows, Giants and Blues. Of course I rate the Pies. But I also think they are well and truly overrated. In my opinion, the probability of us winning the flag is higher than the Pies winning it. In fact, i think the Lions are a better chance of wining the falg than the Pies.

Fair enough - and i think that there is every chance that there is an element of dialling up and dialling down of intensity based on the relevant importance of the match and at what point of the season the game is played. (by the by, on this later point, in the DL interview Selwyn Griffith made the point that by half way through the season fatigue becomes a real issue – he didn’t make this point, but it’s reasonable to assume younger players struggle most with fatigue). But I’d make couple of points. If the dees went at finals like pressure against top 8 sides and contenders, that’s maybe 10 teams you go full tilt at, some twice if we play them twice. So maybe 15 games at final like intensity. I doubt that is feasible if being cherry ripe in the finals is the goal. Secondly, if a team has targeted a specific match to dial things up, teams must have to plan for that, impacting how hard they can go in the 2-3 games prior. So, for example. Let’s say the dees want to be in optimal readiness for the Pies game. Maybe to achieve that, they have to go harder on the track now, increasing fatigue for the Freo and almost certainly the Blues game (on that game, we have a 10 day break before the Kings birthday game and so I suspect they will go hard on the track ahead of the blues game to be in optimal readiness for the Pies – so we might see a scrappy average performance against the blues). So I agree with you about bringing the finals like heat to specific games, and think that is exactly what they do, but I suspect they limit their focus to genuine top 4 and flag contenders – which personally I think are the Lions Pies, and to lesser extent the Dogs and maybe Port (in that order) And again, I’d point out that our pressure against Port was good. Not as manic as Port’s, but not far off. By the by, if you rate Port as a genuine contender this season you must also rate the dees as a genuine contender. I mean people can’t have their cake and eat it too on that front (i’m not referring to you here Watson – i mean ‘you’ in the generic sense). The fact is, Port played fantastic and their pressure was immense. They were the better side on the night and fully deserved the win. But facts are facts. We only got beaten by four points and were in the match right up to the final siren. If not for some extremely dubious frees we may well have won. But some see the loss as evidence of us perhaps not being a genuine contender. Doesn’t make any sense. Well, not if you rate Port. We played a team who had won 6 straight games, is widely considered a genuine finals (maybe even top 4) contender on their home deck, off a six day break, in conditions that favoured their method and who were awarded some very significant home town umpiring decisions. And we really only played one quarter anywhere near our explosive best. And we went down by less than a goal! People who are objective are not fooled. Evidence to back that claim up? Well, for a start we’re playing a team this week who have won three on end, are coming off smashing the reigning premiers (albeit a weakened one) and if they beat us may end the round in the top 8. Yet the clear eyed punters who are betting real money, have us as prohibitive 1.37 favourites (standard disclaimer here – I understand that doesn’t mean we win). For context, the top of the table lions are 1.73 to beat the Crows, who are coming off a crushing loss. And Port, who are 4th on the ladder with 8 wins (having won seven straight) are playing the tigers who are 14th (with only 3 wins and a draw) and are paying 1.77 for the win.

Yep, that's my take too. If true, it would be one example of prioritizing finals success over home and away wins.

You'd have to think it is the degenerative nature of his knee injuries, something Goody said last year he would have to manage for the rest of his career. I worry TMac is now in much the same boat with his foot injury.

We beat the dogs in round one by 50 points. Narrative - maybe the dogs are not contenders this year, asterix on that win. Dogs get beaten the next week by the Saints, who at that point are tipped to finish bottom 3 by many, and certainly not considered the serious finals contender they are now. Narrative - the dogs are struggling, are not a top 8 team, double asterix on the dees round win. Round 3 the dogs beat now top of the table Lions, but at that point their round one drubbing by Port still has pundits questioning where they are at, their victory of the dees notwithstanding. Narrative: the double asterix remains on the dees round one win Cut to round 10 and the dogs smashes a team in the top 8, everyone's favorite bolter, the crows, for their 5th win on end, and cement their spot in the top 8 on the same number of wins as us (albeit with 30% less percentage - a massive number for two teams on equal wins). Pundits are starting to wake up to the fact that the dogs are a serious team. Narrative - the double asterix remains on the dees round one win because it is too long ago for the media fishbowl to compute.

But therein lies the challenge - and the folly - of looking at each individual match in isolation as some sort of assessment of our chances of winning a flag. It is not possible to play each home and away match at finals like pressure. Well it is, but then teams' risk having no gas in the tank comes finals. It is probably this very reason why so few premiers are on top of the ladder at the halfway point in the season. It was definitely a factor for us last year, with so many final like pressure games late in the season. The pressure Port applied in this game was full on, and definitely finals like. It's simply not sustainable for 23 rounds. Besides our pressure was good in the Port game - not as good as theirs, but not far off it (keep in mind a score of 180 is AFL average and 200 is considered elite): Melbourne v Port Adelaide https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231001 Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold. Pressure Q1: 182 - 203 Q2: 200 - 203 Q3: 189 - 198 Q4: 205 - 219 Tot: 194 - 205

Well, given we are 1.37 to win this game - not much more than what winx was running around at - you should load up on freo. You win either way then.