binman

It's no surprise the dees and the saints are at the top of the scores from turnovers table. Goody and Lyon share the same footy DNA - defence, pressure, contest, forward half footy. Eight rounds is a pretty good sample size so the Saints on top of the turnover table with a 193 differential (14 from us in second) is impressive. As notable though is the fact we are 78 points ahead of the Lions in third and clear on top of the total for scores from turnovers with 512, with Brisbane next on 483. Less impressive for the saints and Lyon's method is being down in 12th for diff scores from stoppages with negative seven. We look good by contrast - 4th differential (42) and 4th total for (305). The Suns are interesting. Sixth in scores from stoppages - and directly above some pretty good clearance teams in Blues, Tigers and Bulldogs. But way down in 15th for scores from turnovers, above only Roos, Eagles and the Hawks. That aint gonna cut it.

I’m no statistician, but top 4 in all three of those categories is statistically impressive!

7. He clearly tried, and largely succeeded, to minimise the impact and avoid putting Ballard into next week. Exercised exemplary duty of care. No mean feat at all given the speed and direction (ie with the flight of the ball) he was travelling.

Totally reasonable suggestion. But on JVR, i know the proper pronunciation is Van- roy – en, but at the footy I yell out Vannnn RUIN !!!!! (very loudly) because I love his attack on the ball and Ruin sounds more battle like (and is easier to yell). And it also makes me think of a Melbourne band from back in the day that I really liked – Blue Ruin So, sorry Jacob (which coincidentally is my son’s name – if I yelled that out it would inevitably be in my ‘you’re in trouble’ voice) if you are reading this Vannnn Ruin it is. I don’t have any excuses for mispronouncing Tracc’s name. Hell, I’m happy if I remember Sparrow is not a Swallow.

That's true. Sort of. By that i mean we don't set up at clearances to maximise the chances of winning them per se (which we would if the goal was simply to get more clearances than the opposition). We set up at clearances to maximise the chances of scoring when we do win them (and minimising the likliehood of the oppo scoring when they win them). Maxy sort of touches on this dynamaic in this interview (cant remember when, but must be in the first few mins coz i stopped listening after that - marty sheargold is like fingers on chalk board!): https://omny.fm/shows/marty-sheargold-show/max-gawn-on-how-tasmania-will-go-getting-players-h

Apparently they do some probability calculation for every shot at goal, including ones that miss all together. To arrive at that figure they factor in things like how much pressure the player is under when kicking, the angle, i think conditions and i might be imagining this bit, the players record from that spot (i assume for both in play and set shots). And then they aggregate all shots to arrive at the expected score. So I'm guessing despite us having more scoring shots that they missed easier ones (thankfully including Macphersons')?

Indeed. It really is all about post clearance contested possession - i have heard Hardwick say many times it is tigers' most important stat. Which is yet another frustration of mine - post clearance possession data is not publicly available - yet another critical stat locked up by The Champion data monopoly. And both offensive AND defensive post clearance contested possession equally important to our game. In fact, arguably defensive ones are even more important. Lose the clearance and when on we put enough pressure on the oppo to force them to hack kick forward which makes it very difficult for them to score because they struggle to hit a target or kick to the forward's advantage. And it therefore makes a contested ball scenario very likely. We are very good at winning post clearance contested possessions, and if we do it becomes a turnover. Our game is based on scoring from turnover and when on we are brutally efficient at doing so. Trac said as much in his post-match on ground interview (i think it was that one). So, they win the clearance, go forward, but don't score. We win the post clearance contest and score on turnover. In the abstract, if we stop them scoring a goal and we in turn score one ourselves, that is a 12 point swing. All of which helps explain why, according to Champion data, teams are statistically twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance.

In that clip about Rivers, the very last shot is him sitting down for the post match coach talk. I know he must have been exhausted etc having just finished a taxing game of footy, but he looks pale as ghost too. That's the first of those electrifying moments clips i've seen that includes comments from a coach (i haven't watched any this season, so perhaps it's now a thing). I thought that was interesting as was mentioning rivers being crook (which i very much doubt he would have if we lost - exuses and all that) and that he almost word for word echoed Goody's post match comments about how proud they were of the players My read is the club was subtly flagging to fans there was some illness in the camp and that we too should be very proud of the team's performance.

And the talk is at least four players were crook (fritter beng one of them, chandler too). And this is not just gossip - Chaplin makes the point that Rivers was exceptional, particularly given he was crook, in this video: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1324887/rd-8-jaguar-electrifying-performance?videoId=1324887&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683423127001

It's interesting actually. Scoring from turnover is key to our game plan and how we score - it is for most teams. Daniel Hoyle from Champion data said on SEN earlier this week (and has made this point a number of times) that teams are TWICE as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance, yet clearance numbers get a lot more attention. Apparently, the Pies were the best, or close to it, for scores from turnovers last year. And are 18th this season. Hoyle made this point on SEN and the refrain from Gerard Healy and Kane Cornes was that was a scary stat because the Pies were still winning, and it showed how much upside and improvement they have. That's one take. Another is they are not applying enough pressure and it is a major red flag. It's almost certainly a factor in their struggles to score. And why, despite having one more win, they have 17% less percentage than us. After blitzing in rounds one and two (125 v cats and 135 v port) they have failed to break 100 points in the subsequent six rounds, averaging a paltry 73 points a game. In that same period we averaged 112 points - though to be fair that includes games games against the Eagles and the roos.

Stongly disagreee with all these points.

Yeah Derwayne's beloved footy gods were soooooo upset Chol was not paid a free that they engineered a shank kick out of a pack that landed in the arms of unmarked Sun's player 35 metres out slight angle. Despite the magnanimity of the footy gods, King reckoned that every day of the week you'd rather Chol have got the free than Macpherson get that mark because Chol 'kicks goals for a living' and Bollocks. Total bollocks. Chol would have been kicking from about 45 metres on an angle. Macpeherson, who by the way is 26 goals 24 points over his career (so better than 50% - not as good as Chols' but no butcher), was 35 metres out slight angle. There is no way Chol was a higher probability to kick that goal. If you (not you MR - the royal you) disagree - a thought experiment. Imagine Van Ruin is paid the free. He knows how much time is on the clock. He is at the top of his run up some 60 metres from goal. And would you believe Gus is all by himself without an oppo player anywhere near him, 35 metres out on a slight angle. Easy kick to hit him. He knows he has time to do so. Would you expect JVR to pass it to Gus?

Demonland at corresponding stage of 2021 and 2022 - our forward line is a joke, we are so boring, they need to attack, we can't rely on keeping the opposition to 65 points, stop kicking to the pockets, get the inside 50 kick problem worked out, try different set ups Round 9 2023: the dees sit second on the ladder with the highest percentage of ANY team in the competition. And are a full 17% in front of everybody's love club, the supposedly rampant, ultra high scoring Pies DESPITE them winning one more game than us and having a very similar draw in terms of difficulty. Demonland round 9 2023 - our forward line is a joke, they need to get a settled lineup, the situation is dire, BB and Tmac are cooked, the ball bounces out too easily, we get burned on transition

Don't get me wrong, i'll take it but t is nuts that we get to play them twice. Just nuts. For a team that is second fav for the flag (and should be fav) that is such a big leg up - basically gifted 8 points and a big percentage boost. And it's not just the fact we play the Roos twice. It's when we play them. The first game was enough into the season that their early zip and we have Clarkson good vibes had worn off. And as dees fans so painfully know from long experience, by round 21 genuine bottom teams are out of gas, their stars are being managed, any post season surgeries are brought forward and are more likely trying to win the wooden spoon than games of footy. The handicap fixturing system is a complete joke.

At least the dees will get some coverage on 360 and on the couch this week. Pity it will only involve a million replays of the incident and silly back and forth about football acts, head being sacrosanct (is the neck adjacent sacrosanct?), Ralphy guessing the outcome, blah, blah, blah. And then they can get back to the Pies. By the by, my take is Rooey could have ruined him but actually appeared to take great care not to get him in the head. So, he did exactly what players are apparently supposed to do - show a duty of care and accept the risk that if someone is hurt, and in particular concussed, they will face a penalty. In contrary to the pathetic jump to conclusion commentary of Dunstall and Derwayne, Roey DID NOT HIT BALLARD'S HEAD, nor did Ballard's head hit the ground. Watching live it was pretty clear their concern was his neck - hence the, totally appropriate, care, they provided and the long break in the game that ensued (imagine how differently this would have played out if he had got up and taken himself off the ground - the 'optics' would have been completely different and it we would have not had to sit thru bonehead ex footballers moralizing and 50 replays and close ups of a distressed JVR ) But bottom line is he wasn't injured badly, no concussion and will play this week. And i would argue that's all because Rooey DID show Ballard a duty of care.

I'm kev martin - and so's my wife

The pressure data and turnover stats (a function of pressure) suggest our work rate and effort was good. And 56-44 time in forward half and plus 16 inside 50s shows a lot was working, the contested ball and clearance numbers notwithstanding.

Tracc about to be interviewed on abc afl

Good lord, reading this thread you'd be forgiven for thinking the dees have been a powerhouse for decades and won mutiple flags, such is the level of disappointment in our performance. We travelled yet again, played a good team in form on their home deck, a team that played out of their skin and matches our biggest strength -contested ball. Yes they pushed us. Yes they beat us at stoppages, clearances and ground ball (which is the real worry because it is an area we have struggled in down back) But let's not let a narrative tale hold where we were 'lucky to win'. We led for all but the first 30 seconds of the game. The scoreboard slightly flattered them as they were much more accurate than us Despite them winning contested ball, and more significantly clearances we kept them to 85 points (when was the last time we won after losing the cp by as many as 27?). So the defence held up - despite once again one of our senior defenders being a very late out (we really missed hibbos physicality, experience and strength). Remarkably we had 22 more tackles and we were plus 35 scoring from intercepts - not only are both huge differentials (which were key to us winning), it also suggests our effort and pressure was good. And despite them winning most of the key stats that drive inside 50 numbers (in particular clearances), we kept them to a paltry 45 inside 50s, smashing them in that critical stat by 16. Their pressure and contested work was off the charts. As good, if not better, than any we have faced this season i reckon. And Rowell and Anderson were brilliant all game. Witts is a goood ruck and took it up to maxy an Grundy. They would have been favourite to beat any team with that performance. So to get the four points after losing in most of our core stats (I’d love to know time in forward half) is simply a fantastic result. We should all be super proud of our team's performance. I'd also add, that was a long injury break in the last quarter and basically mafe it a 20 minute quarter form that point. We were on top but lost our fitness advantage and momentum and i suspect if not for the break we would have rolled over the top of them.

Or they could simply have someone transcribe the question in real time and have the broadcasters scroll the text accross the bottom rhe screen

Losss still possible. But a win would also have still been possible. There would have been 14 seconds left on the clock if he had kicked that goal. 6-6-6. Any score wins. 14 seconds is plenty of time to score from a clean centre square break - particularly given only a point is needed and so anyone kicking inside 50 could choose to kick as deep as possible (ie not to 20 metres out to maximise the chance it is not just knocked over for a point by defenders)

No. It was a terrific game. Hard, fierce contest from go to whoa. The suns were impressive. And our accuracy reverted to the mean But Maxy, tracc (how about thst goal?) Oliver and Viney stood up and won us the game. Worth watching just for that. Generational stars. We won another last quarter, meaning we have yet to lose one this season. Kozzie did some brilliant things in the first half. And brodie roved Max and snapped a goal. The last minute was pulsating. They had a shot to ensure at least a draw. I won't tell you what happened next (note to self: what was may thinking?). It would have been no shame to draw (the most likey result if that set shot had been a goal) so to get four points is a fantastic result. A lot to like. Or you could watch a couple episodes of MAFS instead.

He was massive in the last quarter. Particularly after the injury break.

There's Robbie. Then the rest.

Just listened to dew's presser. I'd suggest he'd agree with all these points. Was at pains to say how well they played and how highly he rates us. And was effusive about Anderson, noting that in addition to his crazy numbers people might not notice how much work he does off the ball. They will beat ANY opponent up there if they bring that contest and heat. Their contested ball game plan is perfectly suited for the slippery condition they so often play in at home.