binman

Preamble: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/ Hypothesis about the arc of the season Act one: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/

I think that is a very reasonable question about the strategic advantage of targeting the King’s Birthday match. I wondered the same thing. I'm hoping it's a target game as much as anything. But the 9 day run in gives me hope they'll use that time to taper.

Well, you wouldn't necessarily get accountants and physiotherapists - except for the nonprofessional roles (realistically three full time professional per game may not be financially viable, so you'd still need the highly skilled amateurs - who by the way i think get paid pretty well for every game they officiate). But accountants and physiotherapists aren't the only people with the skills set to be excellent umpires. My son was pretty handy junior basketballer. But was never going to make it at the elite level. So, he went down the refereeing path and jumped up through the grades pretty quickly. He had a mentor from Basketball Australia, who invest significant resources into this area, who had been a FIBA ref at the Olympics and world championships and really encouraged him to think about the opportunities refereeing provided (international travel, NBL and the big one - professional NBL ref). My son ultimately decided to stop reffing, which was unfortunate as he became an excellent ref, in large part because of the training and pathways BA provided. Anyone who has been at high stakes basketball game at any decent level knows how crazy and intense the pressure is. The best refs thrive in this environment - but only with the right support and training. My son is never going to be an accountant or physiotherapist, but if he stayed the course, he would have become an excellent ref. If there was a path to become full time professional AFL umpire he may well have pursued that option. As would many young people - if you love sport and want to be involved at the highest level why not make umpiring a career?

No we don't. And we have a triangle defense structure with a goalkeeper defender as on of its points, where they have almost flat line defense that pushes up as one - but can be exposed out the back on turnover. But our optimal game plan still heavily relies on wave running and multiple players running ahead of the ball to provide options.

You say excuses, i say factors - potato; potatoe. But don't worry i won't be flogging that particular horse tomorrow night. Much. But if you need some prophylactic pre pod protection, then you can get the full technicolor binman impact of fatigue thesis here

100% agree and i think this is perhaps their biggest vulnerability. In some ways this is similar to the dog's vulnerability in 2021 and 2022 (i think they have addressed it better this year) where they relied on handball chains out from the contest and then in transition. Each handball is link in the chain that is at risk of breaking under pressure. The pies also use handballs to chain out from contests. The difference is they are more looking to get it to one of their elite kicks in space than keeping the handball chains going (which they'll still do if necessary). And then their elite kick takes on high risk, high reward kicks that, when they come off, set up gilt edged scoring opportunities. That kick is a critical part of their method, but even for the best kick super intense pressure make them much harder to make. And for all the, justifiable, talk of the pies' brilliant last quarters, skill and exciting method, the fact remains they went two losses, one win in last year's finals, losing to the Cats and Swans in high pressure games - and turning the ball over in key moments in both games. Sidebottom out is huge i think because he is one of their four truly elite kicks (Daicos x 2, Sidebottom and Pendles). De Goey is huge out because of his power, ability to tun the game and his brilliance at stoppages and in the contest. But he is also an excellent field kick, so that's two better than average kicks out of their side, which will make their high-risk kicking game all the more susceptible to pressure.

Thanks SD. That is not low-quality speculation at all. Very relevant to the discussion. And to be honest its exactly why i started this thread - to have some more nuanced conversations about the game we all love. Your comments are interesting, and touch on something that i find really curious - footy fans have been conditioned by the media to disregard what coaches say (lying is the first language of footy and all that 1980s rubbish) - particularly if they contradict the micro focus and weekly contender or pretender narrative the media love to play each week. Goody has been at pains to point out that everything is about being ready to go come finals. That we are planning for finals success. Why is this point disregarded? An even better example of how the media frames things to prime its audience to believe a particular narrative is the weird repetition the Dees have scoring issues. This has become so accepted that King could say, with all sincerity, on First Crack last night that (paraphrasing) everyone knows the Dees are struggling with scoring, and neither cohost said a peep to push back. Why would they push back? Because it is a complete load of cobblers as evidenced by a pretty significant bit of irrefutable data - up till this round we had scored more points than any team in the competition (the cats have now edged us by 17 points - but despite having won three less games than the supposedly rampant scoring machine in the pies we have still scored more points than them) - a point Goody has also made on multiple occasions. We are at the halfway point in the season. Given the fatcs, how is it possible for the dees have a scoring issues narrative to hold any credence, let alone become the dominant narrative? Scott basically said the media narrative, and refusal to see the macro picture is a load of hogwash in his post-match presser this week. There are plenty of other examples. Yet collectively the media, and therefore footy fans (generalizing) ignore these messages from senior coaches. I can't find the clip, but on the Sunday ABC radio footy show, the Lead, they played those comments from Scott and came back and said Scott had 'pierced the fourth wall' and called out the games the footy media play. The comments they played from Scott are 9:28 to 11:41 of this clip: Full post-match, R12: Cats (afl.com.au)

The VFL is a lot lower intensity than the AFL, so not the same impact physically.

Yes, i guess it could be manipulated. But sacrificing one of your players to force one of theirs off is a massive risk. And the doctors are not going to lie about a players injury status. Again, it would all come down to getting the rules and framework right. Which to be honest is probably the best argument against it - the AFL have woeful track record of getting the rules and framework right

Act two of the season Act two of the season is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 16. And as important as the first two months are in terms of laying our fitness foundation, you could argue this period is almost as important in terms of giving the contenders the best chance of winning a flag. As I noted in the Act one of the season post, Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season games only provide 70% of the capacity to maintain aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build aerobic capacity. And said that to be in optimal shape come finals they need to use the bye period to do a heavy block of aerobic and power conditioning, but also give players time off to physically and mentally recharge. So, lots to juggle and consider. He didn’t mention fatigue in this context but said an impact of this increased training load is a greater risk of injury in games. Logic suggests extra running and weights sessions will also cause fatigue (as is the case in the preseason), which will impact our performance in games (in much the same way accumulative fatigue does). I hesitate to call this a loading phase because it became so emotive on DL last year and in 2021 and 2022. And to be perfectly honest I can’t be bothered relitigating the debate (that said, to be clear, i have never suggested fatigue is an excuse for poor performance, but rather a factor, a reason - one of many factors that can impact performance, but a very important one and one that is almost uniformly overlooked in the media). But for anyone reading this who has not participated in the great loading debate, Selwyn Griffith explains the process here (and there are hundreds of posts on the topic last year and in 2021): 15:45 mins to 19:30: Selwyn discusses the full year’s training program 19:30 to 21:48: Selwyn discusses the impact of accumulative fatigue, and the phase where they are increasing loads etc From his comments there is no question they do a block of heavy training at this point in the season. The question is how long it goes for. He doesn’t directly answer that question, though references the round 12-15 period. Which makes sense given the goal for the real contenders is to be cherry ripe in mid-September (round 16 is usually early July). My take from these comments, and pretty extensive research in previous years, is that it is about a three-week period they go extra hard. There's no question it had a significant impact on our performance in a block of aprox 3-4 rounds in the last two seasons because of the related fatigue (ie they do additional running and power sessions on top of recovering from games). In 2021, in round 13 we got rolled by the then lowly Pies in a listless performance (we scored 63 points), had our bye, only beat the lowly bombers by 11 points in another scrappy performance (scoring 68 points), got rolled by the Giants on the G, only managing 55 points on a dry day, went to Port and played great to win (scoring 86 points) but then drew with Hawks (79 points) and got beaten in round 19 by the dogs, scoring only 65 points. From that point we didn’t lose another game for the season, averaging aprox 108 points a game, inclusive of our three finals wins. Last season, we lost in rounds 11, 12 and 13, only breaking 60 points once when the Swans beat us 76-61. Then after our bye we scored 16.21 117 and poleaxed the Lions by 61 points in round 15. The pattern has started to repeat itself so far this year, with a loss to Freo in round 11 and a scrappy, low quality match against the blues (but thankfully a win). By the by, on the blues game, if you are someone who thinks hibbo is best 22 (as I am), then the logical extension of him being managed is that they did not give the team the best chance of winning this game. This is what I mean by prioritising winning the war not the battles, which Goody has touched on multiple times when he talks about the goal being in our best shape and playing our best footy come finals. Again, this is not a scenario limited to Melbourne. Burgess took the tigers' fitness template, added his philosophy and then others have followed – most notably Geelong last year. Given how running based the Pies are, they are almost certainly following a similar regime. Why? Because they can’t win a flag if they are not as fit as they were in the first third of the season come grand final day – or as fit as us for that matter (it’s worth nothing Sanderson has said a number of times the Pies are the fittest side atm by some margin – hard to prove, but their ability to run out games is used as the key evidence. We have lost only two final quarters for the year, so by that logic we must be pretty fit too). As previously noted, I make a distinction between flag contenders and non-contenders. I assume non contenders would still follow a similar training program, but their focus is on making finals, not winning a flag. So they might not go quite as hard around the bye as they can less afford to lose games because of fatigue. And they need to peak at the start of September, not the end. You don’t need to be sport scientist to see the impact of fatigue on performance. Just watch any game in the last two rounds and you can clearly see its impact. In round 11, top 8 teams in the Lions, Dees, Dogs, Cats and Saints all lost to teams well below them on the ladder and the pies gave up six last quarter goals to the roos to only win by 6 goals after leading by nearly 10 goals. There have been less anomalous results in round 12, but the quality of the games and skill execution was uniformly very poor. And the dogs and Crows (where Burgess now works) both got out to big leads before completely running out of gas and getting easily rolled. Leaving aside how the games looked, there are tonnes of AFL wide metrics that evidence the impact of accumative faitgue on perfomance. So, the timing of the heavy training block will have a big impact on which games we are most impacted by fatigue in, and which games we might therefore be at risk of losing going in as favourite. The big question then is when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? There are some variables that are worth factoring in when considering that question: Our training program has changed quite a bit this year, and it appears we are following the Cats lead in terms of managing players, using more players through the middle, using more players full stop, and key players spending more time on the bench than in 2021 and 2022 There is an extra round this year Selwyn talked about how tough the first half of our season was in terms of the challenges of travel combined with multiple short breaks between games For the second year in a row, we essentially don't get a bye because we only have 9 days between the pies game and our post bye game (by way of comparison, most other teams get a full two-week break, meaning players can get away from the club and there is still time for a good block of heavy training without worrying too much about the impact on the post bye match) Griffith noted these factors made planning when to do additional blocks of training a real challenge – and I wonder if the timing of breaks means they have to split the 3-week block of heavy training into smaller blocks of say 7-9 days But he also noted that post bye, it is a better fixture in terms of travel and breaks between the games It is also an easier run home than last year, which as was the case for the Cats last year, means greater opportunity to manage players (if the cats had as many must win, finals like, high pressure games as us in the last 5 or 6 games of last season they would not have had the luxury of managing players) So, back to the key question - when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? Short answer is I don’t know. But my best guess is that it started after the Freo game, which just about marries up with the aprox rounds 12-15 window SG talked about. I fully admit this guess is influenced by the hope that we plan to be in the best possible shape for the Kings' birthday game, which we weren’t last season. But I think this year the stakes, and timing, are different. This is one battle that will help us win the war. And it is also one of the most eagerly anticipated game in years. I'm hoping we want to do everything we can to win (like resting Hibbo against the blues). That said, even factoring in yet another six-day break, I think the blues game provided pretty good evidence of a team that was fatigued beyond accumulative fatigue – ie they went hard on the track in the lead up. For the first time all season we played tempo footy and looked to control the momentum and speed of the game just as we so often did in 2021 and in the first half of 2022. Great way to conserve energy. And it was by far our lowest pressure ratings for the season, and we went into cruise mode in the last q (keeping in mind 180 is considered league average and 200 elite pressure – dees in first column): Q1: 179 - 195 Q2: 172 - 161 Q3: 179 - 166 Q4: 148 - 153 Tot: 170 - 170 So, we train hard in the lead up to the blues and go hard for the first half of this week? And then taper into the Kings Birthday game. We have our bye, players have a 3 or 4 day break and then go hard again in the lead up to the Cats game – which of course we want to win but are prepared to risk losing because of fatigue (if I’m right we will see a the same sort of scrappy, low quality game as we did at aprox the same time as our game against the cats at taxpayer park last season). We then have a nine day break ahead of our round 16 Alice Spring game against the Giants, so we do our last heavy training block (resulting in another scrappy game) to get our aerobic and power closer to the optimal level as we roll into the third act of the season, rounds 16 to 24.

The Malachi crunch

All excellent points. And i agree with them. I'm not suggesting there should be media pile on the umpires. The media should be piling on the AFL. I don't blame the umpires for being poor collectively. I blame the AFL. Umpires are a vital element of the game and their performance has a huge impact on how games play out. Each game should have at least one (but ideally three) full time professional umpire (and keep the current set up for boundary and goal umpires). These umpires should have a strong base salary and the ability to earn significant bonuses based on their performance. Provide a legitimate pathway for young umpires to progress through the ranks to be professional umpires at the elite level. Or young guns who are terrific players but won’t make the grade but want to get involved in AFL football. Give them a range of other responsibilities (because they are full time professionals) other than match day and training – umpire AFLW finals, mentoring AFLW and VFL umpires, community outreach to local clubs and local league umpires etc etc. SB, you are 100% right, it is an incredibly hard game to umpire full of grey areas and subjectivity. Invest time and resources time to help them deal with these challenges. Enhance their decision making skills under pressure and ability to ignore the crowd. Have them work in teams so they build synergy. All this is possible if they are full time professional. Or at least some are. Because I have had this debate for years and years, I have heard all the arguments about why the current model of well-paid amateurs works. None stack up for mine. The most common argument aginst professional umpires is that it is prohibitively expensive. Please – it is a multibillion dollar industry and we have accountants and physiotherapists making decisions that can change the fortune of a club. Think of Grand Final day. The very best umpires get selected and almost always do a great job. We know that because we don’t notice them. Every AFL game should be like that. The stakes are high. How long ago was it that Hawkins was awarded a goal in a grand final that actually hit the post? Maybe the Cats won because of that mistake? Well, apparently this was way, way too big a risk and hang the expense we have to make sure a grand final can never be decided by a ‘howler’ again. Here we are some 15 years later and despite the millions spent on the VAR system and the non officating umpre, they still haven’t got the system right. But few argue we don't need such a system. Because apparently getting scores right is critical. Meanwhile we are seemingly ok with 15 howlers a round and multiple games a year where the result is unduly influenced by sub par umpiring performances because the AFL has decided not to invest the resources required to make the standard of umpiring elite for a supposedly elite competition. The AFL tamp down criticism of individual umpiring performances - and fair enough too. But it is disingenuous because the implication is any criticism of the standard of umpiring is an attack on umpires themselves - which i agree is not ok. But the brilliant part of the strategy is there is no questioning of the AFL and its clear responsibility to ensure the game is officiated to the highest possible standards. And in every other part of the game striving to achieve the highest standard involves increased professionalism. But apparently not for one of the most critical elements - umpiring. And I'd go further. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but the AFL have long run on the theory that dominating media attention helps crowd out other sports. The any news is good news principle. Every single year there is a new rules related controversy and a slew of 'interpretation' changes in season. Who is impacted most by this? Who cop it the most? The umpires, amateurs all. Leaving aside whether this is deliberate, if the AFL is so concerned about the umpires how about sorting out the rules of the game and taking out as much subjectivity and grey areas as possible and stop making interpretation changes in season so it is not so damn difficult to do the job.

I agree with all of those points. But I support a red card, in very clearly defined scenarios (which by their nature are relatively rare), when it results in the opposition losing a player. That hit happened near the end of the second quarter. The kid was playing well. And then knocked out, and can't come back on. Dog act. They lost hurn and West and with hewiit off, were down to two on the bench for a big chunk of that game. Losing hewiit was a huge disadvantage for the Eagles. Unlikely to have been a difference between winning and losing, but there's plenty of examples where it has. And I'm persuaded by the argument, what if that happened 5 minutes in to a grand final - let's say de Goey knocks tracc out cold. Play on?

I look at it often. Brilliant site. Very user friendly. Partic how I use it, which is predominantly to zero in on our key stats and also comparing teams accross mutiple data points. For stats, I now only use wheelo and footy wire. And i always look at the timeline function in the match area on the afl app as they post some really intersting, and often very obscure (eg one effective disposal inside 50 in the second q against freo) champion data stats.

But the accuracy is also related to speed of ball movement and one, preparedness to take risks and two, execute. Faster ball movement creates free options inside 50 in good spots and more out the back, running into open goal type goals. And executing riskier kicks means more use of the corridor and therefore better looks at goal. This is one of the reasons that it frustrates me the media doesn't factor in fitness levels and fatigue - except in rhe most superficial way - into their analysis. I mean it is fundamental. And is the key factor in so many games, both in terms of the outcome but also the quality of the game in terms of skill execution. They use phrased like x team is just not on today instead. I have made reaaly good money this year, and the previous two seasons, at this time of year, factoring fatigue and the resulting drop off into my footy betting. For example last night I absolutely slammed the suns because one, their game plan is so contest to contest based it is less impacted by fatigue (because it isnt as reliant as say the pies on hitting targets on transition- they smash it forward and hope to win the next contest). And two, because they were super smart and went up to darwin a week before the dogs game and stayed up there to acclimatise. Crows started well, but could not handle the humidity and blew up

Yep. I assume goal kicking accuracy is included in the DE ratings. And logic suggests accuracy from set shots is very much impacted by fatigue. You see the impact in games at the end qs, or after long sprints, when a player is gassed and has a set shot. Chandlers third point, was a good example. Add accumulative fatigue to the mix and inaccuracy is inevitable. I think we have average technique accross the board, and again logic suggests fatigue would have more an impact on our DE than say the pies, who are on average better kicks. That said, sidebottom out is huge for them, because they really rely on their 4 elite kicks- daicos x 2, peddles and sidebottom - to hit high risk kicks on transition. Lose 25% of elite kicks and their scoring chains will break more often

That's nut wheelo. Love it.

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed. Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50. And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

That is not what he said. At all The relevant part of the interview is 15:45 to 21:48.

Not a chance. Any concussion, mutiple weeks. Let the ball pass him, elected to bump - and flushed his shoulder direct into his cheek. Text book. No concussion and he still gets a minimum one, maybe two.

Gawn

And 2 Thursday night games this year too. So seven stand alone premier night games - and lost 5 of them.

Third week in a row where the umpiring was appalling. But zero push back from the media. It's pathetic. The media are completely compliant with an afl shadow ban of legitimate critique or one of the most critical elements of the game.

He's not the best one on one player at the best of times, and McKay must be close to the best and from memory, all his marks were one out and the ball kicked to his advantag. So, I agree, he worked hard and really stuck to his task. I really admire how he has gone about things since he did his knee. Must be hard going from best 22 lock to a fringe player. Never dropped his head.

Yeah, coz they were so ruthless last week against the second worst team in the afl when they got smashed in the last quarter, giving up 6 goals. And despite winning three more games prior to this match, they still had a lower percentage than us. So ruthless. Is this a bloody pies footy forum or a Demon's one? FMD.