binman

Oath.

He even has his own theme song:

It wouldn't be too much different. The narrative would just be papering over the cracks yada yada yada. By the by, i totally acknowledge we have some significant weaknesses and some potential issues. Ironically given JVR is now playing senior footy and we have brought in Schache, one of them is exactly the same as last year – real concern about the second tall forward position. Another is our small and medium defender role – but on that front kudos must go to keeping Schultz quiet. I have long said our biggest weakness is our kicking skills, and it remains a worry and even our very best players, with the possible exception of Oliver are not one touch players like say Butters (who was brilliant in the wet against us and the Tigers). Maxy is still not 100% and I don’t think he and Grundy have quiet nailed their synergy. And i fall into the trap of underestimating the impact of injuries we have dealt with - we really missed Petty, Max out for 3 games (and most of the lions game) and still finding his best, May looks to have struggled all season with the ground ball suggesting back issues or similar, losing Hibberd and Lever right before games, Tmac still struggling with his foot, BB not ready for senior footy and Salem missing 9 games. But we are not playing in vacuum. Every other team, including the three above us on the ladder, have their share of problems too, including the Pies (who by the by are 10-1 after 11 rounds, same as us last year and we know that guarantees nothing come finals). Are Lions, Dog, Saints and Cats fans writing off their top 4 or finals chances after the week’s losses? Maybe. Nuffies follow all clubs. But perhaps a better question is are dees fans writing off say the Lions and the dogs after their poor losses against lower ranked teams? Some maybe, but because Dees are fans are likely more objective about other teams most wouldn’t.

It is almost impossible to believe of any demon fan, but I sometime wonder if some posters actually understand how difficult it is to win a flag. Goody won a flag the season before last. Finished second on the ladder after the 2022 season (and yes went out in straight sets - but surely everyone knows by now that we entered the final with up to 11 players under injury clouds - and played like that). We currently sit fourth on the ladder at almost the halfway point of the 2023 and almost all teams have played each other once (and will have after the next round). So, leaving aside anyone's assessment of where we are at, be that postesr here or the media, the objective truth of the ladder is that we currently have the fourth best record of any team in the AFL. And people can talk all they want about our forward line and scoring ability, but again the objective fact is that we have a higher percentage than the Pies, a team people still seem to rabbit on about their scoring power. It is remarkable because the Pies have won a full three more games than us. Three less wins - and yet we still have a higher percentage. The Pies have now played one of the two real easy beats in North (who we get to play again, and they don't by the way) and 11 rounds of AFL football is more than enough to level out any of the fixturing anomalies that might make such a comparison hard after say 5 rounds. And it is worth noting that of the Pies' 11 games, 8 have been played at the MCG. That's a pretty good leg up for them scoring wise. Some argue the Lions have the best forward line in the AFL. After 11 rounds, they have won one more game, yet we have almost 10 percentage points more - despite the leg up they get playing their Gabba fortress. And Port is considered not a bad attacking side and have a decent forward line and have won two more games than us. Yet we are a whopping 22 percentage points clear of them. After we smashed the Hawks no one was talking about our forward line problems. In fact, we were being lauded for our historically high spread of goal kickers. Yet we have two average games against two good teams and its panic stations. And against Freo we actually got our chances, we just didn't take them. as reflected in the expected score which had us at plus 35. Bottom line, Goody has made it clear he isnt about one flag. Or two. He is about setting up an environment where we are in contention for a flag for many years. In that he has clearly taken a line through how the Cats have gone about doing so, who won flag in Scotts first year (a team that was strong already), remained contender for the next 9 years before winning a second flag for that group. And are contenders again this season. But some are seriously suggesting Goody lucked out, or we need a reboot. I mean really? The objective fact simply do not support such a view.

OD, just to be clear, i know i was responding to one of your posts, but i'm not trying to suggest you are a fair-weather supporter at all or knocking you for not going to the footy. Post game public transport is god awful for anyone, let alone anyone a bit older, needing a seat and who has better things to do then have their personal space invaded by a bunch of half cut vaping teenagers. Or worse - blues fans. You no doubt have well and truly paid your dees dues over the journey and avoiding the cold and the booming 'match day experience' and watching the game at home sounds a really good option. No, i'm talking about the fans who don't have such excuses and are happy to go to Anzac eve or Kings Birthday, and very happy to pot the Dees for 'not turning up' or some such, but can't be bothered going to a game on a cold Friday night to support their team when they need it. Theatre goers. Don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with people going to the footy for the theater. Not everyone is obsessed with footy the way i and many others on this board are. But i don't want to hear criticisms of the team about effort etc. from that mob.

Unfortunatley you are probably right. But if so, isn't that an indictment on dees fans? Blues are in a horror strecth, the jungle drums are startng to beat for their coach and finals look a struggle. We are fourth on the ladder after 11 rounds. And it is very possible more blues fan's might turn up for a demon's home game? My personal philosopy is that the players don't owe me anything. My choice to go next Friday is not going to be based on some sense of disapointment in their perfomance againnst Freo. I'm going on Friday night, come rain or shine, to support my team, and our players And unfortunately i fully expect the game to be a real struggle, not unlike the freo game, with lots of scrappy play and missed targets. Tis the season for the folly. And so it is likley to be a close game - maybe if enough dees fan that can get there do get there, we might be able to collectively lift them over the line if it gets close.

If they actually win a flag they will be the best team in the history of sports.

Garry Baker

Two key stats: - port were 9.3 57 from their set shots and we were 4.7 31 - expected score plus 18 (On expected scored, I could see the boards they take our to show the players. The top line on one of them had: Expected score +15. I hadn't seen that before. Normally the first one is contested possessions or time in forward half)

And we can't when we are fatigued.

Well, i think we will finish top 4 and will go on to win the flag.

Some of the worst non calls from the umpires were right below me on the members wing. Noone call tell me the pies or tigers would have not got some of those frees in front of their home crowd going bannnas - hell, they would get them when we are the home team. I might have scared some kids too. Also told myself to pull my head in.

Including the 2022 finals the pies have played played 7 top 8 teams. And lost 3 of those games (two finals and lions this year). And only scraped past the saint and the bombers. So the supposedly unbeatable pies are not much better than 50 50 against top 8 sides in that period. Just sayin'.

If you were sitting anywhere within a 100 metre radius of me yesterday you would have no doubt how passionate, frustrated and disappointed I was. My throat is ruined. On a related point, I have not generally been critical of dees fans not showing up. But yesterday was pathetic. 29k on a perfect Saturday arvo for footy. And I'm positive it would have made a difference if there was more vocal passionate dees at the ground. For one thing we might have actually won a God damn holding the ball free. So anyone who is on board the dees are rubbish train who could have gone yesterday (i dont mean those who cant, live interstate, have mobility issues, had a funeral, were getting married, have covid etc etc) but chose not to - you are part of the problem not the solution. Buy a mirror.

Herein lies the problem. I suspect we have a very different take on what constitutes 'excuses and fluff'. As for being ostracised for being passionate and disappointed, that ain't gonna happen. The point I was trying to make is that tge passionate and disappointed voices are well in truly in the majority and that it is in fact the more measured voices that are shouted down. That's counter intuitive in the real world - but not in footy forum world. We have seen this exact movie before at this point before in 2021 and 2022. And no doubt this time last year the cats footy boards were much rhe same. But as I say people can choose however they want to process losses. Different strokes for different folks. But personally I'd prefer not to get shouted down for views that contradict those of the majority. And my experience is that is, by and large, what happens at this point in the season.

This. People can obviously choose their own post loss adventure. But there's not much point engaging if you have a contrary perspective to the hysteria. The counter intuitive element is the hysteria is normalised and measured perspectives are dismissed as hysteria or head in the sand stuff. It is a DL thing. And for the third year in a row around round 10 to post bye period it goes into full on mode. Tis the season for anomalous results. One only need to look at yesterday's results for evidence. Four top 8 sides rolled by teams outside the 8. Including the cats at a ground they have a 90%, or some such wininning record. I suspect Port will be added to that list today.

Agree.

My prediction for today's game: Coming off an 8 day break i'm hoping the dees haven’t gone hard on the track and are cherry ripe for this game. I think they will be because my gut feeling is this is a target game and the blues game not so much. Part of my rationale is that they didn’t look to rest or manage any players, and brought in Harmes rather than giving say Woey or Howes a game, suggesting to me that they really want some continuity. So my take is based on that assumption. Oliver is a big out in any circumstances, but very big against Freo because it means we are less able to exploit one of their big weaknesses – not enough big bodied quality mids. But even without Oliver, I think we will be too strong at the coal face and will look to hit them hard. It will be a great game for the clearance discussion, because Freo are number 4 in the AFL for clearances (and number one for hit outs) and they are an important element of how they generate scores. But they are 18 for clangers – which is a key stat in this game because we are number one for scores from turnover and if we bring elite heat and pressure we will look to ruthlessly exploit that glaring weakness. Teams are twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance and that equation will be well in our favour today. The ruck duel will be fascinating. I really rate Darcy and Jackson’s form is improving every week. Great challenge for Max and Brody and you’d have to think they are both really looking forward to the battle. But a problem for Freo is that they rely on their rock combo for their clearance domination - and therefore scoring and territory. Against every other team they have an edge in that department. Not against us. So even if we break even that will hurt Freo. I like the ins – Sparrow brings physicality and inside grunt that offsets missing Oliver a bit. Harmes is an another experienced, strong mid/flanker. I have sneaky feeling he might be sent to Brayshaw to limit his influence. And I really like the out for freo in Walters. He is exactly the sort of player who has long given us trouble. But more importantly, Waters out means we don’t have quite the same issue with needing to spread our medium defenders to cover multiple threats. And the biggest threat is Schultz. I’ll be really curious to see who goes to him, but you’d have to think Mcvee will get first crack. Freo like to spread and switch, which I think doesn’t work so well against us as it gives us time to get our defensive structures set up. Which in turn mean we can get our intercept game going. For me a big factor today is the weather. It will be perfect conditions and that means we can take more contested marks, key to our game, and we can better chain out our handballs as we transition forward – something that we really struggled with last week in the wet. And I think this is where the game will be won – on transition. I think the dees will be too powerful, smash them on turnover and on transition and win by 6 goals plus. On the betting front, the odds are fascinating. We opened at an incredibly short 1.38, and rather than drifting as many might have expected (including me), we have instead continued to tighten and at the time of writing we are 1.33 (with a -19 point line). That is very short and suggests to me that the big punters are very confident of a dees win – and perhaps have some inside knowledge about our approach to the game (ie it's a target game). Those odds are too short for mine. I have us as favourite, but my odds would be something like 1.50 with a line of 15 points. Better value is the 167 Total Match Point (TMP) line. We will attack and Freo have been trying to be more attacking in the last few games. Weather is no problems, so i'd have the TMP at 177, so 167 is great value. Recommended bet 10 units on over the TMP @ 1.90.

Watched many games this year OD? I fear you have pulled the wrong rein.

I wonder if Fanning was any good at handball?

Me too.

Agree with all of the above. I actually think there is a similarity to our 2022 season, in that for the first half of last year teasm didnt think they could beat our defence - or us - and came into games on the psycological back foot. Teams come into games against the Pies and even if in front at 3 quarter time belive the Pies wil still roll over them. Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. But a couple of close losses will dint that aura. And lets not forget, in the close games that really mattered last year - their firts final against the cats and their prelim against the Swans - they lost both.

Is that what you were saying about us this time last year OD?

And we had the best ruck of his generation missing for three weeks (four if you count the lions game, which is reasonable given how early that game he was injured), Lever and Hibberd both withdrawn right before games, Petty missing last week and Salem missing the first 9 rounds. We also have had much harder fixture than the Pies in terms of travel and breaks between games. I'm not sure how you could argue they are playing with 'way more confidence'. We are scoring at a clip that we haven't under Goody since 2018 and continue to be defensively sound. After barely topping 100 points last year, we have done so 5 times already. I take your point that they still have to play eagles, roos or hawks. Their percentage will no doubt improve on the back of those games. But the fact remains that after 10 rounds, despite having lost 2 more games than the pies our percentage is 7 points better. Doesn’t scream 'playing with way more confidence' to me. If you came from Mars (planet not stadium) and read all the Pie worship palaver, you'd be justified in thinking they are some generational team that is a lock for this year’s flag. When in reality, as exciting as they are to watch, and as impressive as many of their performances have been this year and last, they were in struggle town for years, lost 2 of 3 finals last year, didn't even make the Grand Final let alone win it and won their last flag 13 years ago. Yet somehow that record is more imposing than ours: just missed finals in 2017 prelim in 2018 just missed finals in 2020 win the flag in 2021 make finals in 2022 after finishing second on the ladder (and yes, out in straight sets, but the pies only won one more final than us last year) not falling out of the top 4 for all but one or two games across two and half seasons(2021, 2022 and 2023) currently sitting fourth at 7-3 with the hardest part of our season travel wise behind us and the highest percentage in the AFL (despite having lost more games than the supposedly high scoring pies and lions) But sure, tell me all about how amazing Collingwood are.

He makes pretty good case to be honest (noting that Maxy missed three games, so those numbers are a little misleading). Darcy is a fantastic ruck.