binman

And we had way more luck last year. For example, in the corresponding round 20 game, we were supposed to play the suns on their home deck. Yes we had to fly up and fly back, but when the game was canned on hame day because of a lock down in qld, we got to play it at tbe docklands instead (with the suns having to fly down).

Exactly. I said I'd be shocked if we won both, not surprised if we lost both (which we easily could have done) and happy if we split these two games. Our performance ibthe dog's game STRENGTHENS the argument for loading. But tbete is little point debating the topic now. If you don't buy it now, you never will - even if, like magic we start running out games and running our opponents into the ground from here on in (which we will). Personally I can't wait until this week's game.

As I have noted before, the premiership betting market is the best predictor of the PROBABLE flag winner. That's because the market reflects the opinion of thousands of people who aren't just spit balling, they are staking real money on that opinion. The bigger the pool, the more accurate it is. And the flag betting pool is in the many millions accross the various bookies. After this corresponding game last season (a loss where, like last night our defence didn't work, giving up 85 points in wet and slippery conditions) we drifted out to $5.50 to win the flag (odds I jumped on because they were way, way overs - not that you'd thought so if you read dl). Many would assume we would have drifted again after last night's loss, and, judging by the tenor of this thread, would consider it ridiculous for us to be one of the favourites to win the flag. The professional punters, who shape the market, not the $20 punters, have learned their lesson from last year - and have also cooled on freo big time. As a result, we didn't drift at all after last night's loss and remain at 3.50 to win the flag - only shaded by the cats, who are at 3.25 to win the flag. Which is unfortunate for me as I'd hoped to get at least $4 for the dees to win the flag. By the by I highlighted probable because it is an important principle in terms of predicting outcomes. In my assessment, the 'true' odds of the dees winning the flag is about $3.00 (so $3.50 is overs in my assessment, but not enough value at this point in the season to bother taking) and I'd mark the cats as second favourite, with their true odds being $4.50 (well unders then) On that assement, we are clear favourites. But even at $3, if you play out the season from this point 10 times, we only win aprox 3.3 times. So even as $3 favourites, the probable outcome is we 'fail' to win the flag aprox 67% more often than we win it So on my odds (which is about the same odds the bookies have the cats at atm) we are aprox a 33% chance of winning the flag and therefore 67% chance of not winning it I think we are the most likely winner of this year's flag, but im fully cognisant of tbe fact that on the balance of probabilities, we won't.

It really isn't In fact i predicted this very pattern ie we will struggle between round 11 and round 19. I even predicted in the game day thread how this game would pan out, And bar the final result, I got it right (i had us just holding off the late surge). As you note, we have clearly not been running out games in the ladt two months. That is obvious- to both the eye and the numbers Some posters are now starting to try and explain that by suggesting we are not fit enough, inferring Griffith has not been as effective as Burgess, even though the pattern of the seson has almost been identical. And perhaps they are correct. If they are, then this season is toast. If we are not fit enough now, there is zero chance we are going to be fit enough, relative to the other premiership contenders, come finals. But, fortunately they are in all likelihood wrong. Believe it, or dont belive it. But i have zero doubt, just like last season, are fatgued because of the loading phase. And we will see as soon as next week whether I'm right. If we are not fit enough, there is no chance we stick with freo, one of the fittest sides in tbe AFL. But i predict we will come and apply sustained pressure all game. We will be energised and 'running on top of the ground' And we will be too strong and too much for freo to handle. Freo will simply not be able to go with us. The supposed fitness issues won't get mentioned again for the rest of tbe seaon. And the turn around won't be because we - insert your favourite magic bullet here (my favourite is found our 'hunger'). It will because we are in the tapering phase of our periodisation program. In the last couple of months we have been at our mid climb camp tinkering with our equipment and getting our preparation right for the push to the summit. That push starts next week. Go redlegs.

Our forward line worked.

Yes But that was the last of it.

I went to today's game snd stood behind the goals at the city end, which was the scoring end. Short answer is yes, if wasn't expected to be a key forward and hecame in for a handful of games. But he is a bit undersized for a key position role atm I reckon. That said he is just a fantastic competitor. One of Chandler's goals came after jvr willed himself to the marking contest, having tracked the ball from the wing. He was stuffed, couldn't get to the tbe contest to matk, and had to push super hard just to get a spoil, a smart two fist front and centre. And his contested mark and goal was just fantastic. I love his desperation and he us the sort of player who just want to be involved in everything. Demands the ball too, which I love. Watching him live, he really reminded me of Schwartz pre knee. Similar size and want for the contest. Similar kicking style too - nice and simple and good technique.

Feels like a real old school game day for me, which works for retro round. On the train to West footscray to see the dees against Footscray at whitten oval. 2.05pm Saturday arvo start. Drizzly old school Melbourne weather. Memories of being at the same ground in the final round of the 1987 season. Do it for Robbie. What a win. Go redlegs.

#deesmyths bingo

Expect a grinding performance, with, like last week, periods where we start to click into gear , and periods where it is arm wrestle. Won't be surprised if we lose. Willie thrilled with a win. In a horse racing analogy, our spring carnival group one target, our grand final, is in nine weeks, and we are in the the second week of this preparation. We are a genuine group one horse, and at our best we win the Gropu one, (and did last year), so despite not being close to fully wound up, and the other horses wound up for a early carnival win, our talent, naturtal briiliance and building fitness will get us close to a win. Pleasantly surprised with the first up win, a win second up will he a bonus, and connections thrilled. But like the trainer their eye is is on the group one prize. The connections trust their trainer to have our horse, redlegs, peaking at the right time and not to flatten her early in the prep, searching for win that isn't black type. Redlegs to be up on the pace early doors, control the tempo and stack them up, surge to a a two length lead at the top of the straight and defy a late charge to win by a long head. Trainer and connections excited about taking on tbe young colt from tbe West next race, and very confident of rolling him (and getting overs into the bargain). Connections holding off the futures bet for the group one till after this race as they know tbe mug punters will jump off redlegs loses, or even has a scratchy win.

.....movement of giant's people

I wasn't suggesting you only went on stats, apologies for the inference. I agrre with your observations. Id add he is now painfully slow. I also agree he is short term- and will likely go out this week, almost regardless of well he plays. He no doubt has been given a specific job in the dogs game. I suspect it will be negating Dale. And perhaps also doing his best to impact aeriel contests and prevent oppo intercept marks.

Yep, fair enough. I also don’t subscribe to the theory that Coaches and even Premiership ones, are always right and protected from criticism. We have long been conditioned as fans to use a player's raw stats as the key measure of their performance. So BB gets bagged over the last few weeks for his low possession numbers, low mark numbers and lack of goals. And Melksham gets bagged because he only had six possessions against Port. But i I have heard Goody say that they don't assess performance on stats so many times it's not funny - for example when asked about Kossie not scoring goals and/or getting very few possessions, or why BB or Tmac are not hitting the scoreboard etc etc. Ever since he became the senior coach, Goody has been crystal clear that every player has a specific role and that he judges their performance on how well they execute that role. The challenge for us as fans is we often don't know what their role is, or fully understand the nuance of what Goody has asked them to execute. Which can make it hard to work out why a player continues to be selected, despite, say super low possessions numbers or few direct involvements in the game. But i think it is reasonable to assume that in most circumstances where a player continues to get selected, particularly one who is not an automatic best 22 selection, that player will have executed his designated role to Goody's satisfaction

Ok

Why?

Is it?

Snap

Bowey says hi

Do you mean the fella Goody has selected two weeks in a row at a critical point in the season?

You might well be right. Over the journey, i've been one of Weed's biggest critics. But the the role really requires someone who is a genuine big tall, which neither JVR or Smith are. With Tmac out, Weed is the only other genuine tall on our list, and it is for this reason i think he will get first crack at the role.

I have no doubt we will select a third tall. I think Weed will come in next week. If he can't make the spot his own, and he won't have more than 2 games to make his case, JVR and Joel Smith are legitimate. options. if Weed can't make it work, it is hard to see where he goes next with the dees, particularly given he is contracted for next year.

Agree with all of the above. He obviously was selected with a specific role in mind last week - negate port's two interceptors, aliir and clurey He performed that role well - neither had an impact, which was particularly important in aliir's case as he is key to to Port's scoring method, which is heavily reliant on transition from the hb flank. The dogs also rely on transition from hb for scoring (and scoring from stoppages/clearances). Dale is key to that method, particularly with Daniel out. However, Dale presents a different challenge to aliir and clurey. He is not an intercept marker or tall (though he plays tall). He is a distributor and runs hard off hb for metres gained. A terrific player, and one of the best kicks in the AFL.. Melk will struggle to go with him pace wise.The key will be stopping him getting the pill and when he does smashing him and ensuring he has no time and space. If he gets away melk will need to hand off to, say jordon or langers who will press forward and close down Dale's space. If that is melk's role, goody won't care about melk's numbers - he'll care about Dales', as should dees fans.

I got sick at home once.

You wish you were involved in Norm Smith's sacking?

You weren't involved in Norm Smith's sacking were you? Wouldn’t shock me, given your penchant for criticising the coach that only last year ended a 57 year premiership drought - and the Norm Smith curse.