binman

Time for a double shot latte. And game time. See you on the other side Demonlanders. Go redlegs.

I wouldn't characterise it as flip flopping. It has changed a bit, but that is par for the course with betting markets, but had remained close to even money - we were slight favs and now they are. Personally I think the current odds (cats 1.88 dees 1.92) are pretty close to th3 true odds. The late support for the cats might perhaps a late out for the dees (that the sort of inside info that can result in the pros jumping in)

My theory is Petty will play forward, Gus back and they run with only two talls down back. But i concede the more likely scenario is that Petts will play back (and if so it makes the dropping Tomo les an issue as few would argue Pety is the better option in defence, even with Tomo's form last week). If i'm right, Tomo comes back in next week as a defender and Petts remains a forward. Not sure where that leaves Smith. If i'm wrong, and Petts plays back tonight, he goes forward nect week and Tomo comes back in to play down back. Again, not sure where that leaves Smith. On Smith, i have a feeling that they might try to engineer a scenario where he remains in the side, even with Petty (or Tmac, or Brown) as a third tall. Maybe a hybrid tall medium.

Geelong and Surf Coast area Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely late this afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. 25% chance of at least 7mm

No, i 100% agree Tomo is very unlucky to be dropped. I think he had his best game at the club last week, and if i was giving Brownlow votes i would have given him a vote. My guess is he will come back in for the Giants game next week.

Load management (for both Spargo and JJ) would be my guess

On criticisms of our selection this week, I think it's worth noting that at this point in the season last year, there were MANY posters who were strident in their criticism of our selection policy. The key criticisms were that goody was too rigid, too stubborn, should be taking a squad mentality, should pick a team for the conditions and opposition and should be more creative. Seems to me those criticisms are not valid this season, and certainly not this week. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

No it wouldn't - in fact quite the contrary. I thought (and wrote on DL) exactly the same thing about spargo a few weeks back when he wasn't selected after he had completed the concussion protocols - ie they were giving him another week off to make sure he was right. He was then selected for Casey. And I wrote words to the effect of, well there goes that theory. Spargs was selected in the ones the following week. In the lead up to that game, goody was asked about spargo coming back via the twos. Paraphrasing, goody said they wanted to be extra cautious and the vfl is lower intensity and less risk, so a better option to manage his return.

No sure what you mean by apparently old, but no, we won't be marking it in our forward line either. We will bringing it to ground with our talls.

Exactly. The key difference is the pies' defensive line pushing up and not having a goal keeper. And they take more risks. I think those two differences, which are interconnected, are also their biggest vulnerabilities. All duck no dinner.

Cold, wet night, narrow ground and crowded D50. Hardly any marks will be taken, offensively or defensively, and the ball will be on the deck most of the night. The conditions make a third tall less critical. Gus can play back and we can run with three talls up forward (Petty, Smith and JVR) - and perhaps give Max and brodie more bench time.

I reckon petty will play forward, as will Smith, taking spargo's role Gus plays back, with Spargo, who looks like he needs a spell as sub. If super wet, sub spargo in for petty.

Which is true, in of itself. It wasn't the cause of our drop off but it was definitely one of several key factors.

Cameron is not that quick. I can't see Hibbos' pace being an issue. Personally, i think Cameron would carve Tomo.

Lever wont play on Cameron i wouldn't have thought. I think much more likely is hibbo or rivers given Cameron basically plays a flanker who gets up the ground, rather than a KPF. Lever can take Rohan if need be.

That would 100% be my guess too. Tomo would be very stiff to be dropped, but it might well be the oldest reason in footy to be dropped - no clear match up. I juts checked BOM and atm the forecast is for rain to start falling late arvo, and not stop till late evening. makes three tall defenders a risk i would have thought.

Half speed?

Come to a music festival with me and you might meet buzzing binman.

I haven't heard King say that. When did he bang on about that?

From the afl injury page (such that is): McStay has been ruled out of Sunday's game against Adelaide and will miss a few more weeks after suffering an infection in the finger he had surgery on back in April

All of which makes me laugh anew at suggestions Oliver was soft for not playing with blisters.

This. At club land they no doubt don't worry about media noise, and the Pies for instance would be under no illusions about who are the key rivals and the threat they pose. But it can't hurt to have the whole footy media, and therefore most footy fans too, think the Pies method is the template for success that all other clubs have to find a 'blueprint' to defeat. And so the starting point for every single analysis of who might win the flag is that the Pies are unquestionably the best team and ipso facto have the best method. And therefore the starting point for the analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of any contender, us for instance, is what they have to do to counter the Pies. As opposed to what weapons and strategies they have the Pies might have to worry about (which if they ever get to that point, is almost an afterthought). So, for example, where is the discussion about whether, when the whips are cracking come finals, the Pies can physically match the power and strength of the lions and the dees' mids and flankers? I mean after all, they lost two finals last year in part because the Swans and Cats were too tough in the clinches. And they have lost to two of three games this season against key rivals in the lions and the dees - and in both games they were physically outmatched. We had to deal with that constant scrutiny last year - how do you beat the dees? By mid season, the consensus was you simply can't beat the dees if you play slow and allow us to get set defensively. Playing fast was the only avenue to beating us. And that is where the game has gone - fast transition. Teams like Carlton who were slow to that party are now desperately trying to retool their method. Slow won't cut. The pies are being lauded for introducing a 'new' exciting method, which is fair enough i guess. But it was the dees that forced that shift in footy because it was clear we were nigh on unbeatable if we were allowed to control the tempo and oppo transition was slow. The big difference between the focus on how to defeat our method in 2022 and the focus this season of how to beat the Pies' method, is we were coming of winning a flag in one of most dominant finals series EVER. And the Pies are coming off a 2022 season where they lost two of three finals and failed to even make the Grand Final, let alone win it. The Cats, basically took our territory, forward half footy, contested ball game plan as the template and tweaked it a bit - and won the flag. Meaning the last two flags have been won by teams with very similar methods By the by, it's worth noting that the Cats, like us in 2021, really got rolling in the last two months of the season and again like us, starting playing much faster and really hammered teams. In their last three home and away games, the Cats smashed their opposition, scoring 110 points against the Saints, 119 against the Suns and 131 against the Eagles. Then come finals they scored only 78 points against the Pies, but scored 120 points against the Lions, smashing them by 71 points before destroying the Swans in the Grand Final scoring 133 to win by 81. The last two GFs have been won by teams playing a very similar method, which in turn is based on the uber successful Tigers' method. The tigers won the flag in 2020, 2019 and 2017. Meaning you could make a case that five of the last six flags have been won by teams with relatively similar methods and game plans. Why then is the Pies method the template for success this season? It defies logic and history (replicate what flag winners do). But i'm sure Goody is fine with the Pies being held up as the templar.

That is true - but they have no such excuse for the next AFLW season.

Agree, then there could be new talking point for the footy media every year - Gerard Whately: with modern footballers and boots being so much better, and the distances they can kick, they really needed to give the goals some protection. Dunstall: i don't' agree Gerard, i'm traditionalist and having row of gum trees 30 metre out directly in front of the goals that players have to kick over just doesn't feel right - what's next a water hazard? Gerard: it's not 1992, the game must evolve. David King: according to Champion Data 38% of all kicks from the 53 metre mark have 16% chance of scoring which is higher than 15% and so the data is clear on this - we need more data to be clear on this. But to be clear i think Freo will finish top 4 this year, because they play the gum tree so well. Dunstall - didn't you say last week Freo would finish bottom of the ladder? King- yes, but i thought they were planting the Nyssa sylvatica not the Tristaniopsis laurina

That is an excellent point LH. In his DL interview, Selwyn made that exact point - the late notice on the fixture gave them no time to prepare. Andy interviewed him in aprox mid March, and in relation to a question about their planning for their fitness program said at least this year they know the fixture up to round 15, which unlike last year, meant they could properly plan out almost the full season program properly. That said he did also say that the nine-day bye break was a real challenge, particularly in terms of player mentally refreshing. But you're right, there is no doubt they are much better prepared this season, and as -coach- and others have noted it might even be an advantage having the nine day bye - particularly if they can engineer another break for some players, for example the Perth boys and Koz to get home. On last year, given the science of fitness preparation and how exact it all is, it beggars' belief that the AFL could even consider not setting the fixture in stone up to round 15 last season.