binman

Hypothesis one: the arc of the season The season is an act in four parts for teams who are genuine flag contenders. Act one is the preseason, in particular January and February, through to round 11 or 12. Act two is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 15 Act three is round 15 to the end of the home and way season Act four is finals Everything has to go right in all four acts to win a flag Act one The training block in Jan and February is perhaps the most important element of the whole season, and certainly act one of the season. During this phase they basically put down their fitness foundation for the whole season. Get it wrong and the season is toast. Burgess has been incredibly influential in this space. Critical is not having players miss any sessions, as far is possible, because there is no do over and players never get to optimal fitness if they don't get this base down. Luck plays a part because to do the work and not miss sessions players have to be injury free. We came into that corresponding period last year with a number of players still carrying niggles etc from the 2021 season (which finished very late for us – and the dogs, who never got going at all in 2022). I knew Carlton would struggle this season because they had heaps of players who mised mutiple sessions, including their best mid in Walsh, with injury or recovering from surgery. They started the season well behind the 8 ball and have played catch up since. They are toast. By all accounts we had excellent Jan and Feb, with almost all players completing every session, with the notable exception of salo who was impacted near the end of that block with the thyroid stuff. This gives me great confidence about our chances of going all the way this year. The teams that have got it right in Jan and Feb will be at optimal fitness in round one (unless they have deliberately pushed that window forward, which I suspect the Cats may have). And we were. This is key because our game plan, like that of the Pies, Cats and to lesser extent, Lions (the contenders) is completely dependent on being at optimal fitness levels. And as such the first 4-5 games are the ones to look at to assess our game plan and method (and of the other contenders). If we get things right and enter the finals close to cherry ripe condition our game plan and method, save some tactical and structural tweaks, will look much the same as the first 4-5 games (noting Goody has said a few times this season we are experimenting with different things). As part one of the season progresses, what Selwyn Griffiths call accumulative fatigue increasingly kicks in and our performance suffers – in large part because as noted, to work optimally our game plan requires optimal fitness. But the other factor is fatigue will impact players differently. Logic suggests younger players will be impacted more by fatigue than more seasoned players. And we have seen that with the drop off in performance in the last couple of weeks of Kossi, Bowey, Mcvee, Rivers, Chandler, Spargo and JVR. Given three of those players are defenders, I wonder whether that is a factor in our struggles winning ground ball in D50 – Salem being out for all but 2 games has to be a factor too. Seven young players who are really struggling with fatigue is nearly a third of the starting 22, which also helps explains our subpar performances in the last two games. I also think we are impacted by fatigue more than the other contenders because we have too many poor kicks and fatigue exacerbates poor tehnique. Again, we have seen that in the last two games with heaps of turnovers and missed shots at goal (we had ONE effective kick inside 50 in the second q against Freo!) And of course it is not just Melbourne’s performance that drops off at this point in the season. One only needs to look at the quality of the matches in the last 2 weeks to see that. Even more stark were the results last round – four top 8 sides were beaten by teams outside of the top eight. And the Lions got rolled by the Crows (who were just inside the 8) and looked rubbish (‘they don’t look on’ according to the commentary). The Pies gave up 6 last quarter goals to the lowly Roos to only beat them by 35 points – no way that happens in the first third of the season. Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season the games only provide 70% of the contribution to maintaining aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build it. So, as the season progresses players are fatigued (mentally and physically as Selwyn noted) AND their aerobic capacity drops. And of course then, so does our performance. Which is one reason why it is of little value to look at the last 2 games, or tonight’s game for that matter, as some sort of gauge or litmus test of our chances of one, beating the other contenders, or two winning the flag. Or for that matter to put much stock in any key metrics and/or stats in this period. For me these games feel like old school games in the 80s and 90s. That doesn’t mean these games aren’t important of course. Losing the last 2 means tonight becomes critical because if we lose tonight making top 4 will be that much harder. And there is a psychological element. Pushing past fatigue and getting the win is what the best teams do. I’m not saying Port are one of the best teams, but they were very average against the Tigers, who really should have won that game. But Port won and I have to say I was really impressed they did.

Episode 2. And three. And four. And five. And six

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions. I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go. The elements/topics I want to cover are: How I see the arc of the season The dees 2023 game plan The game plan of the other contenders The fitness program Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. My hypothesis is informed by: comments from Goody, the players and coaches comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters comments by George and Andy on the podcast various bits of publically available data my analysis of the last few seasons my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc my own musings the vibe And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them): Brendan Sanderson, Daniel Hoyne from champion data Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments) Brad Johnson Montagna Gerard Healy Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff) David King (see comment about Buckley) My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including: Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc) The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers) Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

Agree. Much better fit for his strengths, and perhaps more importantly his weaknesses. I suspect his number one kpi tonight will be, if we cant mark a high ball inside 50 it comes to ground. I also suspect they'll use him in the tmac role of getting up the ground to provide a marking option from kicks to half back from deep in our defence and lead up option on the wing.

And they're not playing on each other, so what does it matter if their forwards are taller? We've brought in another tall defender, so tomo can take McKay and may curnow, with Lever third man in.

Perhaps not such a bad thing to be a bit shorter up forward on a potentially slippery night. All 3 forwards are pretty good when the ball hits the deck. And with his leap, Smithy plays taller than 191 I reckon.

Smithy!!!!!!! Love it.

Oath.

He even has his own theme song:

It wouldn't be too much different. The narrative would just be papering over the cracks yada yada yada. By the by, i totally acknowledge we have some significant weaknesses and some potential issues. Ironically given JVR is now playing senior footy and we have brought in Schache, one of them is exactly the same as last year – real concern about the second tall forward position. Another is our small and medium defender role – but on that front kudos must go to keeping Schultz quiet. I have long said our biggest weakness is our kicking skills, and it remains a worry and even our very best players, with the possible exception of Oliver are not one touch players like say Butters (who was brilliant in the wet against us and the Tigers). Maxy is still not 100% and I don’t think he and Grundy have quiet nailed their synergy. And i fall into the trap of underestimating the impact of injuries we have dealt with - we really missed Petty, Max out for 3 games (and most of the lions game) and still finding his best, May looks to have struggled all season with the ground ball suggesting back issues or similar, losing Hibberd and Lever right before games, Tmac still struggling with his foot, BB not ready for senior footy and Salem missing 9 games. But we are not playing in vacuum. Every other team, including the three above us on the ladder, have their share of problems too, including the Pies (who by the by are 10-1 after 11 rounds, same as us last year and we know that guarantees nothing come finals). Are Lions, Dog, Saints and Cats fans writing off their top 4 or finals chances after the week’s losses? Maybe. Nuffies follow all clubs. But perhaps a better question is are dees fans writing off say the Lions and the dogs after their poor losses against lower ranked teams? Some maybe, but because Dees are fans are likely more objective about other teams most wouldn’t.

It is almost impossible to believe of any demon fan, but I sometime wonder if some posters actually understand how difficult it is to win a flag. Goody won a flag the season before last. Finished second on the ladder after the 2022 season (and yes went out in straight sets - but surely everyone knows by now that we entered the final with up to 11 players under injury clouds - and played like that). We currently sit fourth on the ladder at almost the halfway point of the 2023 and almost all teams have played each other once (and will have after the next round). So, leaving aside anyone's assessment of where we are at, be that postesr here or the media, the objective truth of the ladder is that we currently have the fourth best record of any team in the AFL. And people can talk all they want about our forward line and scoring ability, but again the objective fact is that we have a higher percentage than the Pies, a team people still seem to rabbit on about their scoring power. It is remarkable because the Pies have won a full three more games than us. Three less wins - and yet we still have a higher percentage. The Pies have now played one of the two real easy beats in North (who we get to play again, and they don't by the way) and 11 rounds of AFL football is more than enough to level out any of the fixturing anomalies that might make such a comparison hard after say 5 rounds. And it is worth noting that of the Pies' 11 games, 8 have been played at the MCG. That's a pretty good leg up for them scoring wise. Some argue the Lions have the best forward line in the AFL. After 11 rounds, they have won one more game, yet we have almost 10 percentage points more - despite the leg up they get playing their Gabba fortress. And Port is considered not a bad attacking side and have a decent forward line and have won two more games than us. Yet we are a whopping 22 percentage points clear of them. After we smashed the Hawks no one was talking about our forward line problems. In fact, we were being lauded for our historically high spread of goal kickers. Yet we have two average games against two good teams and its panic stations. And against Freo we actually got our chances, we just didn't take them. as reflected in the expected score which had us at plus 35. Bottom line, Goody has made it clear he isnt about one flag. Or two. He is about setting up an environment where we are in contention for a flag for many years. In that he has clearly taken a line through how the Cats have gone about doing so, who won flag in Scotts first year (a team that was strong already), remained contender for the next 9 years before winning a second flag for that group. And are contenders again this season. But some are seriously suggesting Goody lucked out, or we need a reboot. I mean really? The objective fact simply do not support such a view.

OD, just to be clear, i know i was responding to one of your posts, but i'm not trying to suggest you are a fair-weather supporter at all or knocking you for not going to the footy. Post game public transport is god awful for anyone, let alone anyone a bit older, needing a seat and who has better things to do then have their personal space invaded by a bunch of half cut vaping teenagers. Or worse - blues fans. You no doubt have well and truly paid your dees dues over the journey and avoiding the cold and the booming 'match day experience' and watching the game at home sounds a really good option. No, i'm talking about the fans who don't have such excuses and are happy to go to Anzac eve or Kings Birthday, and very happy to pot the Dees for 'not turning up' or some such, but can't be bothered going to a game on a cold Friday night to support their team when they need it. Theatre goers. Don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with people going to the footy for the theater. Not everyone is obsessed with footy the way i and many others on this board are. But i don't want to hear criticisms of the team about effort etc. from that mob.

Unfortunatley you are probably right. But if so, isn't that an indictment on dees fans? Blues are in a horror strecth, the jungle drums are startng to beat for their coach and finals look a struggle. We are fourth on the ladder after 11 rounds. And it is very possible more blues fan's might turn up for a demon's home game? My personal philosopy is that the players don't owe me anything. My choice to go next Friday is not going to be based on some sense of disapointment in their perfomance againnst Freo. I'm going on Friday night, come rain or shine, to support my team, and our players And unfortunately i fully expect the game to be a real struggle, not unlike the freo game, with lots of scrappy play and missed targets. Tis the season for the folly. And so it is likley to be a close game - maybe if enough dees fan that can get there do get there, we might be able to collectively lift them over the line if it gets close.

If they actually win a flag they will be the best team in the history of sports.

Garry Baker

Two key stats: - port were 9.3 57 from their set shots and we were 4.7 31 - expected score plus 18 (On expected scored, I could see the boards they take our to show the players. The top line on one of them had: Expected score +15. I hadn't seen that before. Normally the first one is contested possessions or time in forward half)

And we can't when we are fatigued.

Well, i think we will finish top 4 and will go on to win the flag.

Some of the worst non calls from the umpires were right below me on the members wing. Noone call tell me the pies or tigers would have not got some of those frees in front of their home crowd going bannnas - hell, they would get them when we are the home team. I might have scared some kids too. Also told myself to pull my head in.

Including the 2022 finals the pies have played played 7 top 8 teams. And lost 3 of those games (two finals and lions this year). And only scraped past the saint and the bombers. So the supposedly unbeatable pies are not much better than 50 50 against top 8 sides in that period. Just sayin'.

If you were sitting anywhere within a 100 metre radius of me yesterday you would have no doubt how passionate, frustrated and disappointed I was. My throat is ruined. On a related point, I have not generally been critical of dees fans not showing up. But yesterday was pathetic. 29k on a perfect Saturday arvo for footy. And I'm positive it would have made a difference if there was more vocal passionate dees at the ground. For one thing we might have actually won a God damn holding the ball free. So anyone who is on board the dees are rubbish train who could have gone yesterday (i dont mean those who cant, live interstate, have mobility issues, had a funeral, were getting married, have covid etc etc) but chose not to - you are part of the problem not the solution. Buy a mirror.

Herein lies the problem. I suspect we have a very different take on what constitutes 'excuses and fluff'. As for being ostracised for being passionate and disappointed, that ain't gonna happen. The point I was trying to make is that tge passionate and disappointed voices are well in truly in the majority and that it is in fact the more measured voices that are shouted down. That's counter intuitive in the real world - but not in footy forum world. We have seen this exact movie before at this point before in 2021 and 2022. And no doubt this time last year the cats footy boards were much rhe same. But as I say people can choose however they want to process losses. Different strokes for different folks. But personally I'd prefer not to get shouted down for views that contradict those of the majority. And my experience is that is, by and large, what happens at this point in the season.

This. People can obviously choose their own post loss adventure. But there's not much point engaging if you have a contrary perspective to the hysteria. The counter intuitive element is the hysteria is normalised and measured perspectives are dismissed as hysteria or head in the sand stuff. It is a DL thing. And for the third year in a row around round 10 to post bye period it goes into full on mode. Tis the season for anomalous results. One only need to look at yesterday's results for evidence. Four top 8 sides rolled by teams outside the 8. Including the cats at a ground they have a 90%, or some such wininning record. I suspect Port will be added to that list today.

Agree.

My prediction for today's game: Coming off an 8 day break i'm hoping the dees haven’t gone hard on the track and are cherry ripe for this game. I think they will be because my gut feeling is this is a target game and the blues game not so much. Part of my rationale is that they didn’t look to rest or manage any players, and brought in Harmes rather than giving say Woey or Howes a game, suggesting to me that they really want some continuity. So my take is based on that assumption. Oliver is a big out in any circumstances, but very big against Freo because it means we are less able to exploit one of their big weaknesses – not enough big bodied quality mids. But even without Oliver, I think we will be too strong at the coal face and will look to hit them hard. It will be a great game for the clearance discussion, because Freo are number 4 in the AFL for clearances (and number one for hit outs) and they are an important element of how they generate scores. But they are 18 for clangers – which is a key stat in this game because we are number one for scores from turnover and if we bring elite heat and pressure we will look to ruthlessly exploit that glaring weakness. Teams are twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance and that equation will be well in our favour today. The ruck duel will be fascinating. I really rate Darcy and Jackson’s form is improving every week. Great challenge for Max and Brody and you’d have to think they are both really looking forward to the battle. But a problem for Freo is that they rely on their rock combo for their clearance domination - and therefore scoring and territory. Against every other team they have an edge in that department. Not against us. So even if we break even that will hurt Freo. I like the ins – Sparrow brings physicality and inside grunt that offsets missing Oliver a bit. Harmes is an another experienced, strong mid/flanker. I have sneaky feeling he might be sent to Brayshaw to limit his influence. And I really like the out for freo in Walters. He is exactly the sort of player who has long given us trouble. But more importantly, Waters out means we don’t have quite the same issue with needing to spread our medium defenders to cover multiple threats. And the biggest threat is Schultz. I’ll be really curious to see who goes to him, but you’d have to think Mcvee will get first crack. Freo like to spread and switch, which I think doesn’t work so well against us as it gives us time to get our defensive structures set up. Which in turn mean we can get our intercept game going. For me a big factor today is the weather. It will be perfect conditions and that means we can take more contested marks, key to our game, and we can better chain out our handballs as we transition forward – something that we really struggled with last week in the wet. And I think this is where the game will be won – on transition. I think the dees will be too powerful, smash them on turnover and on transition and win by 6 goals plus. On the betting front, the odds are fascinating. We opened at an incredibly short 1.38, and rather than drifting as many might have expected (including me), we have instead continued to tighten and at the time of writing we are 1.33 (with a -19 point line). That is very short and suggests to me that the big punters are very confident of a dees win – and perhaps have some inside knowledge about our approach to the game (ie it's a target game). Those odds are too short for mine. I have us as favourite, but my odds would be something like 1.50 with a line of 15 points. Better value is the 167 Total Match Point (TMP) line. We will attack and Freo have been trying to be more attacking in the last few games. Weather is no problems, so i'd have the TMP at 177, so 167 is great value. Recommended bet 10 units on over the TMP @ 1.90.