Little Goffy

If anyone happens to be looking over the stats at half time and notices that our 'clangers' count is the only stat where we are well off the Tigers, please remember that free kicks against count as clangers...

Oh terrific, Geelong getting their traditional late-season staggers is reminding me that Richmond will be looking at the ladder thinking top-2 is a very realistic shot and all they need is a good boost to their percentage. I don't normally get negative pre-game, but I have a bad feeling about this.

Unfortunately we passed into the sad realms of "Mathematical Impossibility" last round. Our maximum possible number of wins is 9. Crows, Port and Bulldogs all currently on nine must win no more games. Crows play the Bulldogs. Oops, yeah, what he said. Right on the money, actually, we could, conceivably, make 9th. All it would take is for two teams to win no more games and a further five teams to only win one game each at most, including of course the issue of games against others int he same group. I would be, hmm, satisfied isn't the word... if we were able to pass Sydney and also finish with our perfomance after the bye round being ahead of Collingwood. Come to think of it, we could have a shot at injury-pillaged Magpies, Sydney on a bad day, and Kangaroos for an end of season laugh. Do that and we could even slip ahead of St Kilda on percentage, provided they win no more games. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN THE SEASON IS OVER THIS IS ALL JUST PRESEASON FOR 2020.

I don't know exactly when it started, it seems to be an incremental thing that has developed over the last 15 years or so, but I really, really dislike the Crows. So the prospect of them slipping and slipping and slipping, out of finals and with continuous damage done to their trade with Carlton is really a joy for me. Oh wait, I just realised - Adelaide are flat-track bullies who sulk as soon as things aren't going their way, and are still carrying on like they are top-4 locks despite two seasons of being basically average. I'd happily watch Carlton claw their way ahead of the Swans just to be able to laugh harder at the Crows, who made that trade based entirely on the assumption they would be top-4 in 2019. Port's big percentage boost and Essendon's big percentage hit make it just that little bit possible that BOTH Adelaide and Essendon could miss the finals by tiny margins. Come ooooooon Doggies!

Dung beetles are amazing. Did you know that they were carefully selected and introduced to Australia under a several-years-long CSIRO program? They store cattle dung under the ground faster than the life-cycle of flies, meaning that the fly larvae don't have time to hatch and develop. This has greatly increased the productivity of cattle and dairy farms because, literally, there is significantly more actual grass not covered in dung. It was a real problem, measured in double-figure percentages of total land in many regions. Also, any time you are eating outside or just doing anything at all outside, take the number of flies you are being annoyed by and multiply it by at least 5. That is what you'd be dealing with if not for the intellectual might of some very humble dung-beetle researchers at the CSIRO! It is not a coincidence that Australia's outdoor cafes and the like only really took off after the dung beetle program was implemented. Anyway, I don't actually know much about dung beetle mating. I think it involves a fair amount of pushing and shoving with hind legs. Don't tell AFLHQ or they'd introduce free kicks for in the back, and we'd all be eating inside again within a year.

I stated that McDonald's 2018, his first season full time as a forward, was at least as good as any season that Ben Brown has had, and therefore there is a case to persevere with McDonald despite his disasterous 2019. I supported that statement with the available, quite conclusive, data, which is also backed by a truckload of 2018 general opinion and commentary as to McDonald's qualities, most particularly his fitness, professionalism and workrate. I don't feel a need to be dragged into your pattern of near-random bipolar fixations on players.

Oh dear, yes, how could I not have noticed, Brown did indeed kick as many as 0.3 goals a game more than McDonald. I guess I must have been blinded by mere details like McDonald having Brown well covered for * Disposals, and Disposal Efficiency, and (lower) clangers * Marks * Tackles, and Tackles inside 50. * Inside 50s, Score Involvements and Goal Assists * Clearances * One percenters, intercepts * Metres gained The rest is pretty even. There's only one area where Brown comes out ahead, and that, to nobody's surprise, is free kicks.

While people are tossing away Petracca it might be worth mentioning that since his form turnaround starting in round 8 this season, Petracca has managed: 16 goals (1.5), 22 tackles (2.0), 42 inside 50s (3.8), and 27 clearances (2.5), with a tick over 20 disposals a game. When it comes to that kind of combination of goalkicking as well as effective involvement in general play, you are talking about a very short list. Jordan De Goey, Michael Walters, Toby Green, Robbie Gray, Gary Ablett Jr, Isaac Heeney, and Christian Petracca. Petracca is right in that mix of priceless players and we'd be mad to trade him just as he's getting it together. Also... Tom McDonald's 2018 season as a forward was better than any season of Ben Brown's. Just saying. Maybe persevere with that rather than go for the panic-buy of a disgraceful stager.

I've not checked exactly, but I beleive Collingwood have actually named their entire available playing list in selection, once you include the extended bench for sunday (which will become the emergencies of course). Officially 20 names on the injury list, though some are test. Given that Collingwood's performance since the bye has been worse than the Demons maybe Gold Coast are in with a shot. Or would be, except they are tanking. Meanwhile, Brisbane are down to 4 injuries, with three of those being '1-2 weeks', and West Coast and Richmond are a week away from having injury lists just as low.

Let us say that, when available and in form, we might look to Nathan Jones, Tom McDonald, Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Jake Lever and Stephen May as conveivable captains, and Jetta, Hibberd, Brayshaw and Lewis as other leaders. Unfortunately only one of those players has had an actually good season. Most have had a terrible time through career-worst form or just plain old injury mess. Jones, Brayshaw and Viney could all be argued to be in that twilight zone where they keep plugging along being ok, but not much resembling what they'd want to be and are capable of. What I find interesting is that all of those nine unfulfilled players have had poor years for mostly individual reasons of injury, age and form. 2019 Demons - a test case of what happens to a football club when 90% of its leaders are significantly under their best.

Funnily enough, and other people have alluded to this, we have a big fat wad of capable 23 year olds on our list. Led by best-22 locks Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Salem and Lever, and followed up by Hore, Smith, Nibbler, Lockhart, Kolodjasnij and O.Mc. I'm not too anxious about the overall age profile of our list, though it is always good to have kids coming through. Realistically, we need to MAXimise our next five or so years before our group of important 26-27 year olds fades away, but we aren't looking at any impending rebuild disaster anytime soon. Having said all that, I would like to see a quality draft crop in 2019, and I'm less and less inclined to trade lavishly to get 'ok-good' players, even when they suit a desirable role.

Why not use pick 3 to grab Langdon, Hill, and a certian unnameable freo key forward in one go. All problems solved at once. Speaking of North, Nick Larkey is a big lump of a lad who hasn't really et the world on fire but his kicking accuracy leads the league at an astonishing 83% (20 goals, 4 behinds). I'd rather make a realistic pursuit of him than follow the absurd fantasy of chasing Brown.

Keep the salary cap room for Lachie Whitfield in 2020. Pump the draft for all the speedy good kicks available. Trade up and down, and even on draft night, to get to the right spots to grab them at appropriate value. Ta da.

Is there just something about the Fremantle football club that makes players leave mid-season? https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-07-31/dockers-utility-to-quit-club-after-fractured-relationship It is starting to look like the club where football careers go to fade away. I wont suggest we should look at picking up Kersten because the prospect of another player with chronic foot problems will just trigger everyone. Footywire, which I rate as pretty reliable, has Kolodjashnij as being out of contract at the end of this year. Did we recently re-sign him for a couple more and footywire is out of date, or is this a kind of Mandela effect thing?

What do people think of maybe trying to grab young big boy Fogarty off the Crows, you know, for next-to-nothing plus irony, as a disgruntled kid who isn't getting a game, is being played out of position in the twos, and wants more opportunities? An additional strong body, and there is no question at all about his willingness to compete and provide a physical presence. I'm not the first person to raise it... https://www.fiveaa.com.au/shows/rowey-bicks/There-Are-Concerns-The-Adelaide-Crows-Could-Lose-A-Young-Gun And Crows fans are fixing on his non-selection as one of the examples of how the coaches have lost the plot. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/darcy-fogarty-afc-pick-12-in-the-2017-draft.1182615/page-166 I'm sure the Crows would try to play hard, but eh, it has the advantage of being a trade that would for us be useful, but not really a necessity or urgent. Also, I would just love it if the grand total of Adelaide's gains from the Lever trade turned out to be some lesser pick we give them for Fogarty, plus the increasingly minor pick upgrade they get due to their deal with Carlton (which they secured with our 2018 pick) and their current slide.

On the bright side of the Lever deal (and I agree we paid a bit over, but the motive of seking tall defenders and genuine leaders is earnest enough). They used the picks to get Darcy Fogarty in 2017, who has had impressive moments but is mostly spending his time int he SANFL, and the pick they gave Carlton in the wacky on-the-night trade in 2018, which became Liam Stocker. So, using those examples it isn't as if we missed out on major rejuvenation of our list. We also got back pick 35 in 2017 (Harrison Petty), and a bit of loose change. Some trivia about the 2018 draft - the entire second round combined has only played 25 games to date! (Including 2 to Tom Sparrow). - only three players outside the first round have cracked double-figure games in their first season (congrats to Marty Hore) So, I'm not sure it can be argued that 2018 was the draft to load up on. Realisitcally, there were only about a dozen players looking likely to be top-quality players (including three academy selections), and we would not have been expecting to be in the top dozen picks. Could it actually be that we anticipated the thin crop?

Poor Sam. Does anyone else sometimes look at his expression on field and just think 'this guy knows he is cursed'? He clearly is cursed, but good on him for carrying on despite that.

Noah Anderson?

Isn't there some kind of secret code about ruckmen? Same as 'never hand-ball to a ruckman running past' - 'never let a ruckman be captain'. I'm just being silly of course, but it doesn't happen often. It would be interesting to see how Gawn responds, because at the moment he's got all the fun and the candour that you want from a champion, and I wonder if having the role as a formal representative of the club might actually limit that a bit? What are the key things you'd look for from a captain these days? - Consistent good form and effort on field, and in training. - Visible and memorable media presence and positive relationship with fans. - Makes teammates feel more confident about themselves and their place in the club. - Helps teammates understand their role and responsibilites as professional footballers. - Communicates effectively as a representative of the players to coaches and club. I'd generally say Gawn meets all of these, though some are insider details we can only guess at. Viney and McDonald might have met all these criteria except they've had such poor individual years, for various reasons.

We do that exactly, except for the horns part. So close to the original that I must give a nod and imply a secret handshake.

Yep, Fritsch is clearly most effective as a forward, he just has the habit of making himself useful there. Not often spectacular or genius, just keeps things going. Frost, on the other hand... yeah I for one am not comfortable with the amount of risk that comes with having him deep in defence. But there's no doubt he brings a lot of the initiative and spontanaeity that can help keep things unpredictable going into attack. On a wing, that crazy pony has space to run around.

I worked out a complete gameplan drawing inspiration from a combination of Macedonian combined arms, the Roman cohort organisation, the aphorisms of Sun Tzu, and modern blitzkrieg breakthrough tactics, and the anthropology of pre-historic weapons and warfare. I'm not kidding. So now at least everyone knows I am just as frustrated as they are, even though I'm usually the one saying it will all be ok in the end.

Ugh. According to the AFL match page St Kilda's transition game has been far more effective than Melbourne's. The Saints have won 41 defensive half intercepts and launched 37 points from these, while the Demons have won 50 defensive half intercepts without generating any resulting score. Before I saw this I was merely bitterly disappointed, now I've got that feeling of futile anger that lurks in the depths of your gut.

Well. It looks like we now know exactly where we will finish on the ladder. Very odd, on percentages we are effectively three wins ahead of the suns but two wins behind the blues.

Bizarrely, the 3AW commetators think he is among the best on ground, which even from their own comments doesn't make sense, they are noting the turnovers.