Fat Tony

I quite like both Kent and Jones. But what is effectively three years for two relatively unproven players is very generous IMO. Both may prove to be good enough to make this decision not hurt MFC but IMO it would have been better to wait and/or only offer one extra year.

Great to hear Toumpas is running well. Where was he placed in the running drills last preseason?

Either we sign up Chip and target for other free agents or we cop his loss and take the compensation. It could be worth as much as pick 2.

I don’t see Toumpas ever developing into a big contested ball winner, so he needs to be quick and skillful. It is the pace element that worries me, so it is good to hear he is moving well.

I agree that small forwards need to be able to get up and down the ground, but Milne kicked more goals than any Demon bar Neitz. I still think there is a role for a lightly built goal sneak, albeit they can't just park inside the forward 50 and they have to tackle. If someone like Rioli couldn't go through the midfield he would still be a valuable player. And Garlett and Walters are very important to their sides.

‘Certainly Best 22’: Garland, McDonald, Grimes, Clark, N Jones, Frawley, Watts, Vince, Cross, Dawes, Hogan, Howe ‘Likely Best 22’: Trengove, Viney, Tyson ‘Possibly Best 22’: Dunn, Terlich, Clisby, Blease, Strauss, Toumpas, Salem, Pedersen, Gawn, Jamar, Spencer, Kent, Fitzpatrick, Nicholson, Bail, Tapscott, Byrnes, Evans, Barry, McKenzie, Michie, M Jones, Kennedy-Harris, Hunt Fat Tony’s 22 for R1 2014 (as at Nov 2013) Backs: Garland, McDonald, Hogan, Grimes, Clisby, Blease Midfield: Clark^, N Jones, Frawley, Cross, Watts, Vince, Trengove, Tyson, Viney, Michie, M Jones, Toumpas (sub) Forwards: Dawes, Howe, Fitzpatrick^, Kent Notes Despite off-season additions to the midfield including some young talent and some more mature blue collar mids, I still believe our midfield will struggle against most sides. And with the modern press making it so difficult to get the ball out of defence, winning the midfield battle is more important than ever before. Further, our midfield is relatively slow and none of the new additions will change that in a big way in 2013. Size is a big advantage in winning inside ball IMO (and the opinion of Roos it seems). Look at the impact of Watson, Mundy and Kennedy. Even Roughead was extremely effective when playing as a midfielder. I would like to see us load up the centre square with our best ball winners at every centre bounce. This would require experimentation to determine who these players are and IMO this would probably result in N Jones and Frawley being standouts. Hogan might also be a good centre clearance player, as might Clark if used as a midfielder. Set ups/match ups after the bounce can be planned and could potentially result in us orchestrating mis-matches in our favour. Frawley is big, tough, strong and fast and IMO could be a real weapon in the midfield contests. While I would agree with those that say he would be a big loss to the backline, IMO addressing the Inside 50 differential is more important as it lessens the need for a strong backline and allows us to put on our own press. Moreover, Garland has shown the ability to play on the number one forwards and he plays his best footy as a tall defender IMO because it gives him the advantage over his man in terms of agility. Tom McDonald is also better suited to the bigger forwards. Grimes is best suited to playing in the backline as the fourth tall/midfield small where he can drop off when required. He is too slow to play on the really fast small forwards. I have been calling for Watts to play on a wing for a while and hopefully Roos uses him as an outside mid. Unless Gawn comes on in a big way over the preseason, Clark is our best ruckman if he is fit enough to play there. I would prefer to go with a Clark/Fitzpatrick tandem than a lumbering ruckman unless they can dominate the ruck. I have my doubts whether an especially large forward line will work without us dominating in the midfield. IMO our best structure would be with two big forwards and Howe or Watts playing as the third tall. Posters pointing to the 2013 Hawthorn side as evidence as to a tall forward line working are underestimating the mobility of their talls. Buddy really plays a small forward and Gunstan and Roughead are particularly mobile. Other than possibly Howe, none of our tall forwards are that mobile or good when the ball hits the ground. Two small defender spots are up for grabs with possible candidates including Dunn, Terlich, Clisby, Blease, Strauss, Toumpas, Salem, M Jones and Michie. I could have nominated any two of these, but I would really like to see Blease and Toumpas get an opportunity to win a position in the preseason. IMO Blease played his best games in the backline under Viney and his pace gives us the ability to quickly counter attack. Fitzpatrick deserves a position on last year’s form and, as unlikely as it seemed a year ago, with his pace he could become a star. I would keep him clear of the centre bounces and then use him as a ruckman around the ground and have Clark pushing forward. We could do with an AFL standard small forward in the rookie draft. I went for Kent as the one permanent small forward, but he needs to step up on last year, and even so we could do with another. I don’t see Hogan playing as a defender in the long term, but he may be the most flexible of our key forwards to go back and I think it could be better for his development to play back rather than sitting in the forward 50 with the ball at the other end.

Salem looks a bit like Bachar Houli and he might develop into a small defender based on his profile (average speed, 183cm, good ability in the air, good skills and hard edge). I preferred the look of the eight selected before him, so I was hoping one would slide to us. In saying that, Salem’s numbers in the TAC competition indicate he was a pretty safe choice.

MIchie is totally unproven at AFL level but the MIchie thread on the Freo board of bigfooty is worth reading and gives us hope we have found a solid player.

I think Gawn could develop into a really good ruckman with an injury-free preseason or two, so long as he can put on size and build a bigger tank. Still, I am not sure he will be in our best side next year. I think Jamar is past his best and his lack of mobility leaves us short in the clearances after the ruck contest. He will only deserve a spot in the best 22 if he can dominate the ruck contests again. Spencer needs to get stronger to dominate the hit outs to make it to AFL standard. He is behind Gawn and probably Jamar IMO. I would go for Clark as the first ruck with Fitzpatrick as his back up. I don’t rate Fitzpatrick as a centre square ruckman, but I think he could be very effective around the ground. So I would have Clark do all the centre bounces when he is on field and then push forward soon after. This plan obviously assumes Clark is fit to ruck. This plan is also the only viable plan where Fitzpatrick makes the 22, which I think he deserves.

I think Matt Jones will struggle to get a spot in an AFL standard midfield. I would like to see Roos trial Jones at half back, because I am not sold on Clisby, Strauss, Blease, Terlich, Toumpas, Jetta etc as small defenders and we have two positions to fill.

The AFL and AFLPA are greedy in wanting to maximise TV revenue and it gives the TV broadcaster too big say in who plays when. It means the big clubs play in prime time and leads to huge inequality in revenues between the clubs. At the same time, the rich clubs are up in arms at the prospects of greater revenue sharing and the AFL has introduced free agency at the behest of the AFLPA. The current path will see clubs like Melbourne will become feeder clubs to the big clubs and eventually cease to exist in the current form unless we are exceptionally well managed. IMO the AFLPA should be willing for the AFL to take less money from the TV rights and commit to a more equitable fixture from both a commercial and football point of view. Otherwise a big chunk of the AFLPA’s members will be out of a job. Moreover, in the interest of fairness, the draw should be set to give each team a roughly even chance of making the finals.

The OP is right. In the age of free agency, the AFL is incredibly short sighted in continually giving poor sides easy, but uncommercial fixtures. The current plan will just see the poor clubs continue to decline and widen the gap.

He might not ever have the engine (to be a true mid), but he sure looks a good player.

Best available, best available, best available. No exceptions.

Fat chance the new Collingwood captain will leave.

Cain is a certainty to be drafted and I doubt he will be there at #57. He would give us at least four good to very good seasons of AFL football and would provide some pace, skill and spread to our midfield. Unless a young gun slips to #40, we should draft him.

It's not allowed.

Why would it be better to promote Clisby? It would push our pick down the order to the Rookie draft.

IMO you underestimate how difficult it is to play in a diabolical side, particularly at half forward. Sylvia will be a star at Freo because the ball will be in their forward half more than 25-30% of the time. Judging the two on average Supercoach points per year, which IMO is a very good objective measure, shows the two are close, with Sylvia having a slight edge. http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-melbourne-demons--colin-sylvia http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-adelaide-crows--bernie-vince It will be interesting to see how Vince goes in a poor side and I hope you are right.

Salary cap/list space. Jamar has a two years to run on his deal which is another Neeld blunder.

Geelong were a kick away from a grand final this year. IMO they should have been willing to take a risk on Chapman, Pods and Corey in the hunt another flag. I think they have lessened their chances this year for little long-term benefit. Essendon were losers because of Crameri. IMO Chapman is worth the risk for a team in contention, which the Bombers obviously see themselves as.

Overall I would judge our trade period as a B+. Our recruiting was very targeted this year and we helped address our weakness in the midfield despite losing our second best midfielder. IMO the pick 2/Dom Tyson deal saw us give up a lot given his AFL career to date. However, the trade makes some sense given the perceived strength of the draft and our likely ranking and overall rating of the draft pool. Freo’s supporters rate Viv Michie judging by the Freo board on bigfooty. He is likely to be well worth pick 57 and should be a good pick up. Daniel Cross still has some footy left in him if his Round 23 game is anything to go by. I think the dogs were silly not giving him another year a bit like we made the mistake with James McDonald. I see Colin Sylvia’s exit as a loss and consider him worth circa pick 15 in this draft. The Bernie Vince exchange is a slight loss for the Dees IMO. Detracting from my rating was the inability to get either Taylor Adams or Dylan Shiel or a player in the PSD. I would have also liked to see us go for Dustin Martin, as well as Jeb Lamb and Andrejs Everitt. It was also a bit disappointing that there wasn’t more than one gun in the draft pool given we had pick 2, although this was not the club’s fault. Further, IMO we should have been more proactive in trading out players such as Jamar and Tapscott for list space. (In saying this, we may have tried.) Going forward, I would like to see us pick up Chris Cain and Robin Nahas, and Matt Scharenberg would be ideal at pick 9 if he slides. Dayle Garlett should also be considered with a later pick/rookie selection. Across the AFL the big winners of trade week IMO were: 1. Collingwood – Pick 11 for Dale Thomas is good compensation, particularly given his injury, and the Heath Shaw/Taylor Adams swap was a win. The gain of Jesse White is a good one and fills a need. The upgrade of pick 11 to 6 is also a slight advantage. 2. North – Getting Luke McDonald as a F/S in a weak draft was a bonus and Nick Dal Santo is a good pick up for no cost. 3. Fremantle – Colin Sylvia will be a great pick up in a good side. 4. WB – Picking up Stewart Crameri for middle pick is a big win and he also fills a need. 5. GWS – Picking up Shane Mumford and Jed Lamb for low cost more than offsets the slight loss of the Shaw/Adams deal. The winner of the Tyson/pick 2 deal will be unclear for a few years. My big losers were: 1. Brisbane – They lost too many players for draft picks in a weak draft. 2. Geelong – The champions they have discarded should have been retained for one more crack at a premiership IMO. 3. Essendon – Crameri is a big loss for little return. Paul Chapman is a champion but his hamstrings were too big a risk for the Cats which says something. 4. Hawthorn – Buddy for pick 19 is a big loss. My big unknowns are: 1. Carlton – Clearly the list looks better but one wonders if it has come at the expense of potential salary cap issues down the track. Thomas is a big risk given his recent injury history. Malthouse looks like he is topping up for a flag, but he needs to win it next year with Judd in the twilight of his career. 2. Sydney – Buddy Franklin is still a good player but the contract is excessive both in terms of length and dollar amount. They lost three AFL standard players to get him. 3. Melbourne – Largely due to the Tyson deal. 4. St Kilda – It is unfortunate timing to be bottoming out and looking to the draft given the strength of the draft pool. They did well to get Longer for such a low pick.

Varcoe is contracted for two more years.

Shaun McKernan is an option, although I don't think we need a ruckman or KPF. I think he has more to offer than he has shown to date, but it still might not be enough.

I am not sold on Freeman because of his size and lack of polish. The Dangerfield comparisons are a bit of a stretch and undervalue Dangerfield's huge body. KK will be an AFL player but looks very outside like a young Andrew Mackie. Aish also looks too outside. I like outside players only if they are fast and well skilled and I don't view him as exceptional. Edit - Spelling