Fat Tony

It isn't about impact this year so much, it just that Wines has now proven he can cut it at AFL level. I think Toumpas will be okay eventually, but Wines is already a good player. To say that means nothing is not considering all the evidence.

If the draft were re-held today, Wines and Mayes would be taken before Toumpas, Ploughman and O’Rourke, and possibly even Whitfield. But recruiters don’t have the benefit of seeing players under AFL pressure before they are drafted and things can change significantly as players mature from 18 years old. Given Wines and Mayes are not at Judd, Selwood or O’Meara’s level, it is too early to conclude that Toumpas was a mistake, although it looks probable at this stage. This is particularly so given Toumpas is coming off an injury interrupted preseason.

I think Blease should be played in the backline. His best stretch of games was under Viney.

The last coach played a big part in creating the list.

Correct. Our best bits of play yesterday were Dunn's kick out down the guts from full back and Blease's long run through the middle. Starting the game with a loose man was an overly negative move.

Does he run well enough to play AFL? I have seen him play a few times in the VFL and he doesn't get near the ball often enough. He isn't all that quick either.

Be careful what you wish for. A new Chief might not be as supportive to the MFC.

I doubt either will prove you wrong, but I think we need to give them both one more chance. I would consider giving Strauss a go as a tagger. Davis is poorly skilled in the VFL and would be out of his depth in the AFL. Two of Davis and McDonald in the backline leaves us too unskilled. And Taggert needs to do more in the VFL to justify a promotion. He was playing in the VFL Seconds last week.

I didn’t gain too many positives out of the game. Viney was excellent and was the major highlight out of the night. Fitzy, Howe and Watts also showed bits and pieces and Frawley was back to playing very good footy again. Trengove has battled for two years and definitely needs a good preseason so he can get some zip back. I wonder whether he has suffered from Misson’s program which reportedly has been focussed on longer distances. I think he should only do 10-50m sprint training over the next preseason as he naturally has a pretty good endurance base. While 12 tackles was a good stat, it also shows that he is second to the ball a lot. Blease doesn’t work hard enough and is not clean enough. I think he should be developed as a defender as he played his best footy when Viney was coach. Toumpas had an ordinary night. While he will be an AFL player, I doubt he will be a star because he lacks the pace required to be a top outside mid. I hope to be proven wrong. I would like to see us experiment more for the rest of the year and I think Strauss and Pederson (as a defender) need to be given more games to make assessment on.

I am not sure this is entirely accurate based on our compensation for Rivers and Moloney and Byrnes's worth.

I wonder what compensation the Crows would get if he left. And if they would be inclined to let him go given they have no picks?

Worth considering but might be too old for us. At the least the benefit would be bumping up his contract to stretch the Crow's salary cap.

And #20 in a thin draft pool is not?

I wouldn’t call Jordie McKenzie a ‘big bodied mid’ given he weights only 82kg. While McKenzie’s inside work/hands are ok and his tackling and discipline are excellent, I doubt he is dynamic enough to play a more attacking role at AFL level. This is because his kicking is poor and due to his lack of dare – both in terms of playing on (i.e. taking the space in front of him) and in terms of too often taking the easy option with respect to decision making. Even though not his strength, I think McKenzie needs to play with more confidence when he has the ball in hand, playing a bit more like Blease and Nicholson and trying to foot pass more to the open man (even if the free player is in the corridor).

Firstly, I believe that the best forward setups going forward will probably tend to include two gun KPF and a mobile third tall. It is also important to have a genuine key forward that can play as second ruck within this mix. Surrounding the KPF needs to be a mix of midfielders or crumbers (and I think Carlton has shown you cannot really have three crumbers). This type of setup provides enough space for the big forwards to operate and ensures enough forward pressure is able to be applied when the ball hits the ground. At present our midfield is stuck in the Third World and we have an abundance of KPFs which we won’t be able to fit all into the one side. While many will consider our depth in this area to be a good thing, I think we also have to consider the option of trading out a KPF at the end of the year in order to boost our midfield. And this is before any potential Priority Pick #1, which would likely be used on Tom Boyd if it is kept by MFC, because by reports Boyd is the standout #1 in the draft pool. However, a problem we would face with this approach is that most of our key forwards would not reap there full market value at the trade table at this point in time. This is where I see our KPFs currently at: Mitch Clark is coming off a bad injury and therefore would not be in high demand. And I doubt we would want to ever trade him if he can get back to fitness. A fully fit Clark also provides some flexibility because he can play in the ruck. Jesse Hogan looks to be a genuine top 10 AFL player of the near future and will play immediately next year. He is the most valuable player on our list and is untradeable. Jack Watts is finally starting to show his ability at AFL level. Watts has some versatility, in that he can play forward and back (as well as potentially on the wing), but I think he is likely to play his to play his best footy as a third tall forward. I am pretty confident that Watts will improve as he gets stronger/older and I don’t think we would get his full worth at the trade table at this point in time. Jeremy Howe also has some versatility in that he can play through the midfield as well as forward. With his marking ability, however, he is really best suited to playing in the forward line. We may get somewhere near Howe’s value if we put him up for trade. Jack Fitzpatrick is a long-term project who is starting to show some good signs. Fitzpatrick is also flexible in that he can play as a second ruckman. I think Fitzpatrick has a lot of talent given his pace and size, so I would be reluctant to trade him at such a young age in the absence of an exceptional offer. We won’t get anywhere near good value in a Fitzpatrick trade unless he continues his recent good form for the rest of the year anyhow. Provided Max Gawn can stay fit he will likely be our first choice ruckman going forward. Gawn doesn’t have the biggest tank and has shown ability to play as a deep forward. While his ability to play on the ball will improve with a good preseason, I still think he will have to spend good periods ‘resting’ in the forward line next year. Chris Dawes is our least flexible key forward in terms of position (possibly along with Hogan) and he has shown that he is not really able to play as a second ruckman. Dawes displays strong leadership and his form has improved since transferring from Collingwood. Dawes is reasonably mobile for a man his size, he takes a few paces to get going and is no Lance Franklin in terms of forward pressure. Dawes trade value has potentially improved with his form since last year. Dawes is 25, so is approaching the peak of his powers. He also commands a high salary/level of salary cap space. Given this summation of our position, I feel we may have to consider trading Dawes at year end. While this move would be highly unpopular, it may also significantly improve our team, particularly in three years when we hope to become a contender. Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast and the Bulldogs are crying out for a KPF at the moment. Some potential trades could be: Dawes + #20 + #40 -> Bryce Gibbs + #50 Dawes -> Pearce Hanley Dawes -> Tom Liberatore Dawes + #20 -> David Swallow I am not strongly advocating this move and the trade would have to be fair, but I think it may be necessary to improve our chances in the future.

While I would marginally prefer Mark Williams as coach, I think Roos would provide a wonderful uplift for the club. I also think there is a good chance that the terms of his appointment will include draft assistance, which I will be the real boon. Roos knows the AFL want him to coach MFC and he knows that success will only come with an influx of on field talent. If Roos is smart he will use that leverage to our advantage.

I think Rodan on another year is a better option.

He has played good footy on the wing this year, so he is a midfielder.

We also need to bear in mind that spots on our list will be an issue given the disastrous list management of Neeld & Co.

The only players that I thought Joeboy was a bit hard on were Sylvia and Howe, but both had only average games for their ability.

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that Davey is done.

I think Sylvia is extremely important given he is a free agent. I am pretty optimistic we will keep our players now that Neeld is gone.

Because we would prefer a midfielder to a ruck coach.

You can point to intangible reasons for our position if it makes you sleep well at night, but IMO the key reason we are where we are is poor recruiting decisions.

My thoughts: The umpires killed us and the Swan’s salary cap needs to be reviewed. The system is a joke when a player can join the premiers through the draft AND get a huge pay rise. Gawn will be a good player but needs to put on some size and get fitter. I am not sure if he will ever be a great runner, so I doubt he can play a very high percentage of game time on the ball. Toumpas is a bit disappointing IMO. Will have an AFL career, but I don’t think he has the pace and intensity you would want out of a #4 pick, outside midfielder. In saying this, it is only early days. Fitzy is improving and is looking like he could make it after all. Watts is still frustrating but is getting better with age. Still needs to show some intensity and use his pace. (His first goal was an example of this, when he jogged towards goal and then realised he was under pressure and took off.) Davey looks almost done. Byrnes has been a mistake. Trengove should not run more than 20m in preseason. Mark Neeld’s record looks even worse every week. Terlich might become a better player than I initially thought. I thought Nicholson might be able to become a reasonable tagger after last week, but was very poor this week. Kent doesn’t really do enough.