Fat Tony

Pace is vital for spreading and chasing. Our midfield lacks balance with N Jones, Cross, Viney, Tyson and Newton (plus Brayshaw). Particularly with Vince underdone. Either Cross or Newton needs to be dropped.

I don't mind Michie and he has played well in the VFL, but I question if he adds what we need (outside run). I think he is competing with Salem, Howe, Grimes and Jetta for a spot in defence.

Ins: Kennedy-Harris, M Jones Outs: Dawes, Newton B Garland, T McDonald, Jetta HB Howe, Frost, Salem C M Jones, Lumumba, Viney HF Watts, Hogan, Kent F Vandenberg, Dunn, Garlett Fol Jamar, Tyson, N Jones Int Brayshaw, Cross, Kennedy-Harris, Vince (Sub) Emg Michie, Dawes, Newton We had one too many talls on the weekend and we cannot carry Dawes, Jamar and Hogan in the one side, particularly given our midfield is so one paced. Dawes gets to the right spots but doesn’t hold his marks and is poor on the deck. I would even consider swapping Jamar for Spencer to add some extra pace to the side. I would play Dunn forward this week, swapping him for Frost who runs with Jenkins all day. Dunn has been just fair so far this year and is a smarter forward than Frost for mine. I am not too concerned with running the second ruckman out of defence and Hogan can ruck in the forward half if need be. Kent should be given time in the midfield. Matt Jones for Newton, who has been ok and has kicked some good goals, but we need some extra dash on the outside. I like the flexibility that Garland and Howe give our backline, and Howe generally sets up a lot of our attacks with his kicking and intercept marking. Vince looked underdone, but is too classy to leave out. I would start as the sub. I would consider running Lumumba with Dangerfield and Viney or N Jones with Sloane.

We lost the game in the midfield and we need to inject some run into the team. We should bring in Matt Jones and JKH for Dawes and Newton. Dawes is big and slow and those blaming the delivery are mistaken. He gets poor delivery because he is too slow to get separation on his man. He also has terrible hands and is out of the contest on the deck. He is a liability. Newton would be stiff given he has kicked some good goals in the last two weeks, but he lacks speed for an outside mid and had zero tackles yesterday. I would have Cross ahead of him.

Of course our low inside 50 count was not all due to Dawes, but he was a part of the problem. Dawes was unable to get separation on his man, so this led the kicker to go sideways and backwards and the opposition then had time to flood back.

What I said was that bringing Dawes in for a small would "definitely harm the balance of the side". And maybe part of the reason why we didn't go forward quickly last year was Dawes not being able to get separation and because we didn't have confidence he would hold his marks.

Definitely harm it. Modern day forwards need to be both good in the air and on the ground. Dawes is neither. He is a big body who tries hard, plays smart and is aggressive. But he lacks speed to get separation from his man, drops too many marks and is out of the contest once the ball hits the deck. He is also inflexible and hasn't demonstrated the ability to play as a second ruck.

We did kick 17 goals last week, which was was three more than any game last year. Adding another tall into the forward line will definitely harm the balance of the side. Hence the dilemma.

He is a bit similar to Stefan Martin, who ranked 3rd in the AFL for Dream Team points per game in 2014 and 14th for Supercoach points per game.

Dawes is a good chaser once he gets going, but he is very slow of the mark. He is also out of the contest when the ball hits the deck, which is the opposite of the player he would likely replace (JKH).

That's a pretty good start! If he can go close to breaking even in the hit outs he will become a gun ruckman because he is great when the ball hits the deck.

Vince is one of our first picked players and will replace Toumpas, who still looks off the speed in terms of decision making and looks undersized at AFL level. Dawes is a dilemma for the selectors. He will probably replace JKH, who sits below Kent on the pecking order IMO. However, Dawes will probably leave our forward line too top heavy, as it looked perfectly balanced with two genuine talls (Hogan and Frost) and two mid-size talls (Watts and Vandenberg). Frost is the other option if Dawes comes in, but his pace and aggressive tackling was first rate on Saturday and he could be a star. (Frost reminds me a bit of Nic Nat with his pressure around the stoppages.) This option also means Dawes has to be the second ruck. Brayshaw will probably start as the sub given he has played the last four weeks. B Garland, T McDonald, Jetta HB Howe, Dunn, Salem C Vince, Cross, Lumumba HF Watts, Hogan, Viney F Vandenberg, Dawes, Garlett Fol Jamar, Tyson, N Jones Int Brayshaw, Kent, Newton, Frost Emg Michie, M Jones, Kennedy-Harris I would run Cross with Griffen and Viney with Shiel. Let Jones go head to head with Treloar or Ward.

Garland has had one bad year after undergoing ankle surgery late in the pre-season. The year prior to that he almost won the Bluey. He needs to show he can get his fitness back but the comparison to Juice Newton is egregious.

Fat Tony’s Team B Garland, T McDonald, Jetta HB Grimes, Dunn, Salem C Vince, Cross, Lumumba HF Watts, Hogan, Howe F Vandenberg, Pedersen, Garlett Fol Jamar, Tyson, N Jones Int Brayshaw, Kennedy-Harris, Newton, M Jones Emg Michie, Viney, Frost Notes: I hope Roos goes relatively small and we play Pedersen as second ruck/forward over Frost or Gawn. This is based on him being a more natural and more mobile forward. Brayshaw looked ready made when we drafted him and has been receiving glowing reports in the VFL. I have him over Viney. N Jones to play head-to-head on Ablett if he plays in the midfield, otherwise Garland if he goes forward. Vince to start with Bennell, Cross with Prestia and Tyson with Swallow. Vince and Howe are in our best five players, so I would play them in the AFL if they are ready. Garland was ordinary against Freo, but was better in the last two weeks. I think GCS will go with only two tall forwards, so we need to have players who are flexible enough to play small and tall. People have short memories and forget how good he was in 2013 and are pinging him on an injury riddled season last year. I like Kent over Kennedy-Harris, but JKH was reportedly better performed last week. I like what Vandenberg adds to the team. The sub could be any of Vandenberg, M Jones, JKH, Brayshaw, Howe or Vince. Demons by 9 points.

Firstly, I think Demonland has gone too negative too early on a bunch of meaningless practice matches. Roos has done a fine job at managing our list in difficult circumstances. This is the most important aspect of coaching IMO, because the players make the coach. While Roos’s game style is very negative, game plans are virtually identical across the AFL these days. Personally I would like to see us become a bit bolder and play on more when we initially regain possession. And I think we are a bit too willing to give ground once we win a possession from a stoppage. But these are minor philosophical differences and who knows what Roos’s instructions are anyway. I also think Roos tends to overvalue height in team selection and our forward line can be too top heavy.

Most midfielders drafted early on will play games in the first year. And our best 22 is poor, particularly in the midfield. Brayshaw looked capable of playing AFL last year.

I watched a few of Hogan's games in 2013 and he dominated, but the VFL is much slower and he is poor at ground level versus AFL players. You cannot carry more than two slow players (max) in the forward line these days. It looks good on paper but it doesn't work.

No way we should play two rucks. Hogan and Dawes are poor when the ball hits the deck and so we need the added mobility.

My observations: • Tom McDonald is still a liability with ball in hand and is not in our best 22 IMO. • Garland had a poor game but he clearly needs to get some games under his belt and will get better. • Grimes made the same mistakes as last year and will need to improve significantly to make it into best 22. • Frost looks fantastic with his pace and must play. But a backline of him and McDonald lacks the skill required. • Newton looks a good get, as does Vandenberg. • JHK is behind Kent and Garlett and probably Bail and so I don’t see him in our best side. • We would be crazy to play two ruckmen given Dawes and Hogan are both poor when the ball hits the deck. Dawes may even need to become the second ruck unless Pedersen or Fitzy can improve. My best 22 ATM is: Jetta, Frost, Garland Salem, Dunn, Howe Vince, Cross, Lumumba Bail, Hogan, Kent Garlett, Dawes*, Watts Jamar, N. Jones, Tyson Viney, Newton, Vandenberg TBD * Pedersen for Round 1.

Scott Selwood is criminally underrated in this thread. Statistically he has been very similar to Nathan Jones over the last three years, albeit 2014 was injury interrupted. As a FA from Victoria, of course he should be a prime target. Jones 2012 – 21 games, 24.6 average disposals per game, 97.5 SC points. 2013 – 22 games, 23.1 disposals, 90.0 SC points 2014 – 22 games, 27.7 disposals, 108.1 SC points S Selwood 2012 – 22 games, 24.9 average disposals per game, 104.0 SC points. 2013 – 18 games, 25.6 disposals, 103.8 SC points 2014 – 12 games, 20.9 disposals, 80.3 SC points

The changes seem a good one to me. The Academies are a rort. Edit: spelling

The trade looked a bad deal before Barry retired and Evans was delisted. But it ended up to be fantastic.

We used similar tactics to get Howe as the lone flyer in marking contests in defence. It is a good tactic, but it is bad for the game.

Defenders Certain: Howe Probable: Dunn, Jetta Likely: T McDonald, Garland Maybe: Frost, O McDonald, Grimes, Michie, Toumpas, Terlich, Hunt, White Midfielders Certain: N Jones, Vince, Tyson, Lumumba Probable: Cross, Viney Likely: Watts Maybe: Newton, Brayshaw, M Jones, Neal-Bullen, McKenzie, Harmes, Vandenberg Injured: Trengove Forwards Certain: Hogan Probable: Dawes Likely: Garlett, Kent Maybe: Bail, Petracca, Kennedy-Harris, Salem Rucks Likely: Jamar, Pedersen Maybe: Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, King Overall Certain: N Jones, Vince, Tyson, Lumumba, Howe, Hogan Probable: Cross, Viney, Dawes, Dunn, Jetta Likely: Watts, T McDonald, Garland, Jamar, Pedersen, Garlett, Kent Maybe: Newton, Brayshaw, M Jones, Neal-Bullen, McKenzie, Harmes, Vandenberg, Bail, Petracca, Kennedy-Harris, Salem, Frost, O McDonald, Grimes, Michie, Toumpas, Terlich, Hunt, White, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, King Injured: Trengove

I think Howe should be played in attack if they start paying more free kicks for blocking in the marking contest. But he is better in the backline if they maintain the same interpretation as 2014. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-football-boss-mark-evans-says-holding-the-ball-blocking-areas-of-focus-for-rule-changes/story-fni5f22o-1227136018059