Fat Tony

Bugg had 9 tackles yesterday. I doubt he will be dropped. He is sloppy with the ball at times but he has some strengths. He needs to improve to be a long term player but he is only 23.

I would like to see Harmes go back. He has the leap and athleticism required and would provide some dash off half back.

Garland had just hurt his wrist before coming off.

The Dogs did a good job of nullifying Gawn’s influence in the ruck and so we lost the game at the contest. The Inside 50s were 62 to 48 and the Contested Possessions were 155 to 125. The Dogs were also very fast and clean by hand when they won the ball and tackled well when they didn’t. This is not to say our back line isn’t struggling. As much as Garland was exposed, so too were Hunt and Wagner. But in saying this, I feel our back line are getting no help from our game plan. IMO we are over-pressing in the forward line, particularly late in quarters when the game opens up. Our back line is then getting shown as ordinary because the heat on the ball is lacking and because AFL players are all skilled enough to find a target with an open forward line and no pressure. IMO we should be more willing to flood back late in quarters and allow the opposition an easier midfield transition, so long as we get numbers back into our defensive 50. Stretch was good and clean and provided further confirmation that he will be a good AFL player. He isn’t a super quick outside player and needs to do more defensively. Petracca showed his unquestionable talent, but his decision making is poor at the moment compared to AFL players and he needs more games. It also surprises me how much of the ball he is getting. Oliver didn’t have a great day and needs to get fitter and stronger. I thought Michie used the ball well, but he had 0 tackles. Salem is classy but needs to run harder. Kennedy continues to impress me. It sounds like we will have a few suspended players this week, so I wouldn’t be making many unforced changes. As well as ANB is going in the VFL, he doesn’t play back which is where we are struggling. If Jetta gets suspended, I would like to see Harmes be tried down back. IMO a modern defence needs players with the ability to get off the ground.

My issue is that we shouldn't have signed Spencer before the end of the year. He might get injured and miss 2017. B-grade ruckman can be acquired cheaply. Smith, Currie, Giles, Leuenberger, Fitzpatrick all moved clubs last year for little in return. The other point to make on your post is that Hulett and King could have easily slipped through to the rookie draft if we didn't take them.

Geelong got a bargain.

This stat is incredible and yet not surprising. According to Champion Data, Melbourne has won 18 more takeaways than the opposition per 100 centre bounces when Oliver is there. That number drops by 12 on average whenever he wanders outside the centre bounce setup.

The Cats managed to trade picks 49 and 53 for Zac Smith last year. B grade back up ruckmen are not worth signing before the end of the year.

With Lumumba not playing again this week, I think we should (and will) go for Salem for Michie as the only change.

I understand Spencer is a free agent, but so what if he walked? He is an ordinary player who is replaceable. We should have waited until the end of the year rather than run the risk that he wouldn't get injured.

We should have waited till the end of the year IMO. This will look like a dud decision if he does his knee again.

I think it was against Richmond and he played (poorly) with it against St Kilda.

According to at tweet from Travis King, Salem and Brayshaw are training today but Lumumba is not.

I would be interested in Prestia, but he is not a must have IMO. On one hand, we are already very well stocked for inside midfielders, with Viney, Oliver, N Jones, Tyson, Brayshaw, Petracca, Trengove, Vandenberg and Neal-Bullen. On the other hand, Prestia is a very good player, albeit he is not back to his best. I doubt we can afford to go after Hurley and Prestia and I would definitely prefer to land Hurley. I would also prefer Lachie Whitfield over Prestia given I think our list lacks a bit of outside run and class. I would also be looking at Hosking-Elliot as an option, though he is contracted to the end of 2017.

As well as we played, I would still probably look to bring both Lumumba and Salem back into the side at the expense of Michie and Stretch. I like both Michie and Stretch, but it is getting very hard to pick a side at the moment given our depth and form. Bontempelli is the player I am most concerned with from a match up point of view, with Vince looking like the best match up around stoppages. MFC Jetta Garland Wagner Salem T McDonald Lumumba Harmes Vince Bugg Kent Hogan Kennedy Garlett Watts Pedersen Gawn N Jones Viney Petracca Tyson Hunt Oliver IN Lumumba Salem OUT Michie Stretch CASEY Terlich O McDonald Frost Michie Dunn White Grimes Brayshaw Stretch T Smith Dawes Trengove Hulett Weideman Briggs Spencer Newton Neal-Bullen Max King Huchins Munro J Smith McInerney OUT Melksham Kennedy-Harris Mitchell King Vandenberg M Jones

This idea misses the point that the power in AFL trades lie with the players and thus we wouldn't get fair compensation in any McDonald trade.

Dunn for Garland is a good change IMO. Dunn lacks the athleticism to play our zone defence. He is finished under the current game plan. Garland was poor at the start of the year, but hopefully his form has improved. Michie and Stretch for Salem and Lumumba make sense given they were both good in the VFL. Oliver for Frost gives us some more ball winning ability in the midfield. ANB is a bit stiff, but he doesn't add a lot of outside run and is inferior to our inside mids. And Michie's form has been better.

Misson explained that JKH and Vandenberg will need to miss another game due to a Casey bye

The thing that has really annoyed me over the last two weeks is the number of shots on goal we have conceded when the opposition has taken the ball coast-to-coast around the boundary line. Our forward line has applied enough heat on the ball and midfield just hasn’t pushed back hard enough. I also think the zone defence we are playing requires a taller, more athletic back six than we are playing. (The way we have set up requires defenders to play 10 meters in front and then run back with the flight and leap to effect a spoil.) As much as we like the idea of having Salem and Dunn in the backline due to their kicking skills, I am not sure they have the aerial ability required. IMO we need to bring Garland back into the side and look at playing Vince off half back more permanently. Edit: spelling

The game plan requires all defenders to play off their men and needs 'heat' on the ball carrier to work. Dunn is finished if we continue under this method because he makes bad decisions about when to push up and lacks the required athleticism.

I think we missed Matt Jones yesterday. Our midfield looks very slow and lacks run and spread. This has been covered over by Gawn's dominance and our straight goal kicking.

While Dunn's kicking is still an asset, he is incapable of playing his role in our current game plan. He makes too many bad decisions in deciding when to push up and he struggles to play in front of his opponent because he can't jump. Either Roos changes the plan back to a man on man or he is no longer best 22. I think the coaches agree judging by his switch to the forward line.

Dawes, Pedersen and Frost are all about the same. Our backline and defensive strategy was the problem today.

At this stage I would be looking at: Out: Salem (concussion), Harmes (injured/rest), Dunn, Wagner, Frost In: M Jones, Garland, O McDonald, Trengove, Oliver Dunn looks incapable of playing the formation defence we are implementing and Wagner needs a spell.

I suspect it is because Essendon don't have a proper clash strip.