Fat Tony

You can point to intangible reasons for our position if it makes you sleep well at night, but IMO the key reason we are where we are is poor recruiting decisions.

My thoughts: The umpires killed us and the Swan’s salary cap needs to be reviewed. The system is a joke when a player can join the premiers through the draft AND get a huge pay rise. Gawn will be a good player but needs to put on some size and get fitter. I am not sure if he will ever be a great runner, so I doubt he can play a very high percentage of game time on the ball. Toumpas is a bit disappointing IMO. Will have an AFL career, but I don’t think he has the pace and intensity you would want out of a #4 pick, outside midfielder. In saying this, it is only early days. Fitzy is improving and is looking like he could make it after all. Watts is still frustrating but is getting better with age. Still needs to show some intensity and use his pace. (His first goal was an example of this, when he jogged towards goal and then realised he was under pressure and took off.) Davey looks almost done. Byrnes has been a mistake. Trengove should not run more than 20m in preseason. Mark Neeld’s record looks even worse every week. Terlich might become a better player than I initially thought. I thought Nicholson might be able to become a reasonable tagger after last week, but was very poor this week. Kent doesn’t really do enough.

Sure, it can be done with an inflated salary cap and excellent management. But if you are so bad that you have only won four games by Round 20 and an extra win costs you picks #1 and #2 in exchange for #3 it is really a no brainer.

We could still finish last on percentage. GWS are leading at three quarter time against the Dogs and Essendon could potentially lose all their points.

I would trade Dawes ahead of Howe FWIW.

I agree for the most part but I would with your keep/delist list, but I would also keep Sellar. However, I would put Tom McDonald up for trade if the price was right and would seek to get St Kilda's second round pick. (The rationale being his kicking.) We should also look to trade all of Jamar, McKenzie and Tapscott, to get pick upgrades IMO. i.e. Jamar + #20 in exchange for #14. Given our salary cap space and Buddy being likely to go to GWS, I think we should try to use our PSD pick. Flash, Rodan and Nicholson will need to finish the season well also to get contracts.

Nathan Jones is the only player on our list averaging more Supercoach points this year.

Contracted. As is Seedsman.

Parker would be a great get and is out of contract. However, I don't think you can set your sights on just one target with respect to the PSD, especially when you don't have PSD #1. The Swans have a number of other good players coming out of contract, including Jetta, Johnson, Mumford, Brandon Jack, Shaw Smith, Rampe and Lamb. But it is pretty rare for players to leave clubs in the premiership window.

Puff piece from a 'supporter' who is obviously keen on self flagellation.

I think Sellar has to play given Gawn can't ruck a whole game and the size of Sydney's forward line. Our backline will be too slow if Sellar starts on Tippett/Pike and it also includes Dunn, Garland, Frawley and McDonald. Further, I see Kennedy as a difficult match in the midfield up given his size. Dunn played on Judd earlier this year and did well, so I think it is the best solution to both problems. I also think that Jones going head to head with Hannebery is better than being shut out of the game by O'Keefe, which is a real possibility.

I would play Dunn on Kennedy and Nicholson on K. Jack. Also we should look to send N. Jones to Hannebery, as O'Keefe will be tasked to him.

I would think Sellar a fair chance to come into the side this week given Sydney's side includes Tippett, Reid, Pike and Mumford. Sellar also gives potential ruck cover if Gawn struggles again. Strauss and Pederson were also both good for Casey last week.

No, but we should still pick best available. Marsh will be a late first round pick at the earliest.

Jonathon Marsh looked the goods to me in the little bit I saw. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-06-14/marshs-small-order

I agree with you and these are not my views. I saw Hogan play on Saturday and was extremely impressed, so I got a bit of a shock when I saw that KM ranked Boyd higher. I hope Boyd is seen as better if we get #1. While it would be difficult to trade a future star, we just don't need a KPF.

Don't shoot the messenger. Knightmare rates Boyd higher than Watts, Scully, Swallow, Patton, Whitfield at the same age. (Although this could be only with the benefit of hindsight.)

Whitfield, O'Meara or Wines are the only ones worthy, but none will be put on the market.

Any caveat would likely be that it must be traded.

I would strongly consider Dangerfield for #1 & #20.

We look to trade #1 (Boyd) because the next half dozen are all around equally rated and mids and Boyd is a standout. Knightmare on Bigfooty rates Boyd above Hogan on his power ratings.

Dwyer would provide us a bit of outside run and polish, which is what we lack. He is a better player than Matt Jones IMO. I would hope to also get Taylor Adams, but it sounds a bit like he might be keen on getting to Geelong.

Sam Dwyer should be a target for us at the end of the year in the PSD. He is Rookie listed at Collingwood and would be on the edge of selection in the Pies best 22. He is aged 26, so he still has a reasonable amount of footy in him. We could offer him much more money and a longer contract than Collingwood given their salary cap is undoubtedly tight.

I see your point, but I would prefer the cycle to be much faster. It will take us a decade to become competitive again and that is too long. If our recent history becomes the norm, players who luck out in the draft (like James Frawley) will have no chance of success at the club they are drafted to.

Second round priority picks would not be enough to even up the competition. The reasons why they are that it is too hard to predict the best future footballers when they are 18 years old with any real certainty and the limited impact that one player can have on a game of football. Using Supercoach averages as a guide, Garry Ablett is worth about two players on the field, which is not highly significant given there are 17 other players on the field. This is why draft picks are less important in AFL than basketball or NFL (where position is more relevant).