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Fat Tony

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Everything posted by Fat Tony

  1. I don’t think we should include Gawn and Jamar in the same side. Dawes and Gawn (and Hogan) in the same 22 will make our forward line too slow. I strongly favour playing Pedersen as the second ruck (and probably Fitzpatrick if Pedersen is injured). This is an analysis of the different combinations used in 2014, showing the SuperCoach averages per player and the number of times each combination was used in brackets. Jamar, Pedersen, Dawes – 79 (8) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Fitzpatrick – 75 (1) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Pedersen – 74 (4) Spencer, Pedersen, Dawes – 74 (2) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes – 70 (3) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Fitzpatrick, Pedersen – 61 (1) Spencer, Fitzpatrick, Pedersen – 58 (3)
  2. No way. It is not worth risking our most valuable player in a role he isn't really cut out for. Pedersen or Fitz is the back up for 2015 and re-assess thereafter.
  3. Jetta – Dunn – Garland Howe – McDonald/Frost – Grimes © Lumumba – N Jones © – Watts Bail – Hogan – Kent Petracca – Pedersen – Garlett Jamar/Gawn – Tyson – Vince Viney – Brayshaw – Cross Salem
  4. He is already 4cm taller than Pederson.
  5. Oscar looks to have more natural size and a higher skill level than Tom. His ball drop looks more natural. I think he might develop into a mobile forward/second ruck.
  6. This is what you want to read when you have #2 . http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-18/top-pick-not-clearcut
  7. De Goey looks a bit like Scott Thompson (Adelaide) from the highlights video IMO.
  8. Many players have had multiple ACL injuries, far more too many that could be attributed to chance. (Schwarz, Morabito, Menzel, Gawn, Malceski, Bailey, Walker etc)
  9. As far as I can tell, this isn’t an easy choice. McCartin’s endurance is the biggest concern about him IMO. The AFL game today is played in a ‘concertina’ fashion, whereby forwards must push all the way up the ground to half back and then work all the way back to present inside forward 50. Also against McCartin, I feel that contested marking is also an overrated skill in junior football, as there are more one-on-one marking contests than in the AFL. This is not to say I wouldn’t take McCartin (I haven’t done the homework) but I would need to gain comfort that his skillset could translate to the AFL game. With Lever, I like his bio. If he can develop into a midfielder he looks a pro-type AFL player. But I think the risk of doing his ACL again should not be understated (as the risk of re-injury is quite high and the impact is devastating). While believing in drafting ‘best available’, I also don’t think we need a key defender given we have Frost, McDonald, Garland, Dunn and Howe on our list. Laverde is the other name being mentioned and he looks to have a lot of AFL qualities, but hasn’t shown himself to be a productive midfielder. I definitely wouldn’t take Wright at #3, as ruckman need to be clearly superior to the rest of the draft pool to be worth the risk of an early selection. Hopefully the Saints do us a favour and take McCartin.
  10. The major error was signing Terlich before the trade period.
  11. Jetta - Dunn - Garland Howe - McDonald/Frost - Vince Lumumba - N Jones - Watts Kent - Dawes - Salem Pederson - Hogan - Garlett Jamar/Gawn - Tyson - Cross Viney - Brayshaw* - Grimes M Jones
  12. While Frost looks a likely type, we paid too much in the trade given the circumstances. Interestingly, Frost was quite highly rated pre draft by some of the posters on bigfooty, but fell to the Rookie draft. Quigley Pick 11 - GWS It’s starting to get to the speculative stage for GWS and having a couple of solid prospects already in place in Mohr and Davis I think they can afford to swing for the fences. Frost is a high risk high reward type. He has great physical gifts but needs to learn the game more. With this many high picks and the pieces I have in place I back myself in with a kid like Frost. Docherty and Adams I think could be in serious contention here especially if the Lions go tall at 8. Sam Frost DOB 28/8/93 Ht 194 Wt 84 Frost is another kid that you would pick based on his athletic gifts and he could seriously go just about anywhere in this draft. As a prospect he reminds me a bit of Jarrad Grant of the Bulldogs in that he would be seriously tantalizing for a recruiter who values potential and athletic gifts over performance. Frost is from a volleyball and basketball background and does not have the football instincts quite down. With that said he also does not have the ingrained bad habits and he often thinks a little bit differently than some. He will try things that others won’t, especially guys his size. He has very nice height and a fantastic burst of speed. When he is green-lighted he really likes to take game on and his size, pace and agility really make him stand out. He is a little hit and miss as far as results go when he takes the game on but I really like the attitude he brings. He can play at both ends but I see him as a CHB at AFL level. I could see him being a bigger Harry O’Brien styled player. Like O’Brien he will occasionally get lost on defensive assignments, will get himself into trouble taking the game on and his kicking might not always be to the best target. Still a lot of positives will also flow from his work. He has a big set of shoulders, long arms and pretty reasonable height. I see him filling out into a pretty powerful guy once he finishes developing. Combine that with his speed and agility and you have a nice physical prospect. Skills wise there does not seem to be a lot wrong technically but he does need to work on being more consistent with his disposals. He seems to have good spatial awareness about what is going on around him but at the moment he does not always take the best option. I think this might just be a matter of getting more high level games into him and see if he blossoms into a player worthy of his physical gifts. He was another who did not test at Combine. Overall there is a lot to like in Frost and in a year where decent key positions are light on the ground he is one I think will be snapped up earlier than many think he should be. He is absolutely rough around the edges but the ceiling on his talent is very high and he is probably worth the risk in a down year without a lot of clearly superior alternatives. Knightmare #33 Hawthorn – Sam Frost (VIC – KPD/KPF) Height: 194cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 28/08/1993 Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons Style: Jarrad Waite Player comparison: Range: 10-45 Profile: Athletic KPP from a volleyball background. Has absolutely crazy dash for someone his size! Not afraid to take on his man which is a good sign considering his athletic attributes. Has shown bits both up forward and down back, so could be effective at either end depending on needs. Like him most at centre half back with his pace providing that dash. Can tell he has played a number of other sports with some of the things he can do. Really started on fire at the U18 Champs. Allot to work with. Great potential. Need to develop consistency. Needs to develop more consistency in kicking because it is all over the place. Snoop Dog # 27 Adelaide - Sam Frost ( Sandy Dragons / 194 / 87 / 93) Officially my favourite player in the draft. There is a reasonable gap between his best and worst and I have seen both but saw a couple of his better games at the Champs where he just showed an unbridled willingness to take on the competition with his terrific athletic ability and back himself in. Backed that up late in the TAC season during the finals and moreover the TAC final when whilst only 194cm he was able to go into the ruck and get Sandy going in that 2nd half at the centre bounce where he used that vertical leap to his (and his teams) advantage. His kicking can be a bit hit and miss but the Suns can work with it easily enough...they fixed Charlie Dixon FGS. He is infectious this kid and ticks all the boxes to be a key defender AFL Comparison: Dustin Fletcher but even quicker than the great Ranga was in his early days.
  13. I would like to see Melbourne help broker the deal between St Kilda and GWS for #1. St Kilda gives #1, #21 for #3, #6, #23 GWS gives Greene, #4, #6 for #1, #21 Melbourne gives #3, #23 for Greene, #4
  14. It’s hard to be too down on what has transpired. Garlett is well worth a punt for #61. Frawley is not worth #3. Clark was retired a month ago and so we can say we got a free Lumumba. Frost has nominated us and we have leverage through the PSD. Dangerfield looks like staying put but hasn’t signed and is still a free agent next year. And Hogan, Brayshaw and #3 will make us look a more attractive option for him next year and we can bank salary cap room. The real downer is Trengove’s foot injury.
  15. Sorry, misread your trade as #2 and #3. Toby Greene is the player I would be going for instead.
  16. Coniglio hasn't shown enough for that IMO. He is worth about #10.
  17. Greene is a [censored] but is also a star. He averaged 103 SC points this year (38th in the AFL and only Nathan Jones had more for MFC). Shiel averaged 94 (76th in the AFL).
  18. Without knowledge of the details of Trengove's foot it is hard to give a strong view on the trade. IMO it is a reasonable trade if we don't think he can get his zip back. In making the decision we also need to take into account our midfield mix, which will be slow as it is likely to include N Jones, Tyson, Viney, Cross and probably Brayshaw. We also need to consider the value of #23 and #12. 2013 #12 Lennon, #23 Crouch 2012 #12 Jaksch, #23 Paparone 2011 #12 Docherty, #23 Newman 2010 #12 Cook, #23 Guthrie 2009 #12 Lucas, #23 Stevens 2008 #12 Johnson, #23 Zaharakis 2007 #12 Rioli, #23 Pears 2006 #12 Frawley, #23 Stewart 2005 #12 Jones, #23 Cook
  19. http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/adelaide-crows-adamant-they-wont-trade-patrick-dangerfield-but-no-word-on-new-contract/story-e6frf3e3-1227079534084?from=public_rss&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
  20. What about doing a deal with the Suns whereby we trade #3, #23 and #61 for Sam Day, #7 and #49?
  21. I would do #2 and #22 for Bontempelli alone. The kid will be a superstar.
  22. Merrett is 30 next season. Surely we can do better than Merrett for a #3 to #5 swap. I would prefer a second round pick.
  23. The Free Agency rules are in place until 2016. http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency Garland has previously played on all of Roughead, Buddy and Cloke and done ok. And Dunn played on Schulz, Cloke and many other big forwards this year. Sydney went into the grand final with Richards, Grundy and Rampe as its key defenders. And Josh Gibson (189cm) was Hawthorn's second KPD after Lake. The game has changed and pace and skill is what is required. And the 'Heffernan Rule' is nonsense. (Josh Kennedy was traded in the Judd deal after signing a new contract.) Players can be traded if they consent.
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