Fat Tony

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

I would like to see us try and talk Waite into a comeback. He's still got it and would be a good short-term option if Hogan leaves.

Spargo is a good young player but lacks the body strength required at this stage. IMO we would be better off with JKH coming in. A case could also be made for Hunt, Joel Smith or even Vince being the inclusion if he is fit. We also need to think about how we tag Issac Smith this week. Tyson on the wing is not a good match up and he could be omitted due to the opposition.

JKH should have held his spot IMO, with Spargo a bit lucky. (I like Spargo but he is only a baby.)

Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!

http://m.richmondfc.com.au/news/2018-08-02/shorts-stay-extended

We lost on the weekend because of poor goal kicking but there are a number of other problems with our selection and game plan IMO. The decision to play Pedersen as a backman when the Swans had only two key forwards was clearly an error and looked a problem after 5 minutes. It took until half time for Goodwin to see this, which was very disappointing. This included a 5-minute period in the second quarter when we had OMac, Frost and Pedersen in defence, TMac in the ruck and Hogan and Gawn on the interchange. In this period we looked unbalanced in the backline and had no target going forward. Why did we keep kicking to Vandenberg when he was playing on Aliar? It looked like we actively sought to go through Vandenberg when we had other options. The structure of our defence on the MCG is porous. It looks like we are trying to pressure in the fat part of the ground rather than inside our 50 or folding back to defence. Goodwin loves having a player off the back of the square every centre bounce, but it means we are unable to lock the ball inside 50 when we win a clearance.

The Sexton goal would have been terrible play even if it had missed. OMac misread the flight of the ball and then was so slow to get back that Leslie beat him to the goal line despite starting well in front. OMac started the year well but has been poor since mid year.

OMac was good against Adelaide but otherwise his form has been down the last two months. Some will put it down to Lever being out of the side but it is more than that IMO. I am not an OMac bear and can see him being a good AFL player in time, but I think Pedersen might be a better option at present. Especially this week against McCartin. Letting the Sexton goal from 80m bounce through (and getting behind Leslie who would have kicked the goal if it didn't) was particularly poor play from OMac.

Hard to see him coming back this season. The VFL Grand Final is on 23 September.

We would be better off going with TMac, Frost or Pedo for another year IMO and hoping Max stays fit. We won't win the flag if Max goes down anyway. This saves a list spot to try and find a Vandenberg, Ronke or Graham type pick.

Josh Wagner would be the most like-for-like replacement for Smith, but Pedersen is in the best form. A possible way to fit Pedersen in is as a hybrid forward/back/second ruck. Gawn, Hogan, TMac, OMac and Frost played a combined 428% game time yesterday, so it should be possible to manage things so that all six are rarely on the ground together. Pedersen would split his game time roughly 30% forward, 30% back and 15% second ruck (25% on the bench). Melksham should come in for JKH or Vanders if he is fit. I think Spargo might drop out of our best side but he was very good yesterday, especially early on.

Hogan definitely needs a rest IMO. We need him firing in September and he is not offering more than Pedersen, Smith or Weideman would at the moment. Of the three, I would go for Pedersen, but I can see a case for the others. Hannan has not played for two weeks and could do with a run in the VFL. Likewise Vandenberg would benefit from another game in the VFL.

A Dees v Cats final would get close to 80,000 at the MCG. No chance they would play it at Kardinia Park.

Hannan for JKH if he is fit. Otherwise no change for me. Vandenberg needs another week or two in the VFL. Pedersen was our best in the VFL, but I prefer the balance of our side at the moment.

We managed to keep Geelong to 20 scoring shots for the game. So our defence was not as bad as you make out despite OMac getting a hiding. Geelong kicked 16.3, with one rushed. You would expect that type of accuracy once per season. And St Kilda smashed the Tigers in July last year. We are not shot yet. We are seventh and one game outside top 4.

IMO we were just plain unlucky on the weekend but our performance was first class. How many teams would beat Geelong at Kardinia Park when they kick 80% in front of goal? Maybe Richmond. The loss was devastating but you don’t win premierships in July. Petracca has hit form and is showing again that he can become an elite midfielder. Oliver is already a top 10 player in the AFL. And Brayshaw will be very good at the least and better if he can improve his kicking. Even without Viney, Hibberd and Lever, we are going to be a hard side to beat in the run home the way we are playing and I can’t see us having a down performance due to lack of effort given what’s happened over the last 12 months.

I would look at Jayden Short. Might get squeezed out of Richmond.

We played very well against Freo apart from our goal kicking, so ordinarily I wouldn't want to see too many forced changes. I also liked the balance of our side. In saying this, the conditions in Darwin will probably require some fresh legs (even though the VFL was a slog and hardly the best preparation either). Vince should definitely come in. Not playing on the weekend will be a benefit. Smith is borderline in our 22 when fully fit, so he should be rested/omitted this week. I could also see older bodies Lewis and/or Jones being rested. Tyson, JKH, Wagner or Baker would be a most likely to come in, but it needs to be a like for like change. i.e. Tyson can only come in if Jones, Viney, Oliver or Brayshaw goes out.

I think Frost's best is pretty good, but he is just wildly inconsistent. He is certainly better than Fletcher Roberts who already has a premiership medallion. IMO we need to play him for the rest of 2018 and hope he hits form at the right time of year.

Frost comes in for Petty who is not ready and should have never been selected this year. We desperately need some speed to go with OMac, Jetta, Salem and Lewis in the backline. Tyson needs to go out for one of Stretch (probably), Vince or Baker. We need someone on the wing who can run and kick. Weideman and Hannan out for Spargo and Garlett. Hannan based on poor form and Weideman based on structure. We only should be playing two key forwards. The weather in Darwin won't help him either. TMac/Harmes can be second ruck. I would also consider dropping Lewis for Vince. Vince is better defensively and Lewis looks (more) cooked. I feel Wagner may be a better option than both, but he was sick last week and didn't play in the VFL.

It was a terrible loss yesterday. Hopefully it is the circuit breaker and Goodwin can realise he is making some dreadful errors. 1. We should be playing only two key forwards (Hogan and McDonald). Weideman will be a good player in time, but the balance of our side is being put out by playing all three. Either Spargo or Garlett needs to come in so that our forward pressure is high. 2. Tyson is not a winger. He is either in our best four inside midfielders or he is in the VFL. We need someone who can cover the ground on the outside, particularly defensively. 3. Frost must play in Lever's absence. Frost makes errors but he gives us some speed and athleticism out of defence. 4. The role of Lewis also needs to be considered. Can we win a flag with Lewis at half back? I doubt it. I know he is a smart player and generally good user, but he is a massive liability defensively. Vince is better defensively and not as slow, but he does not win as much ball and makes some brain fades. Wagner could be a better option than both.

Goodwin needs to realise we can’t win a flag with an old, slow backline. Particularly with Oscar as our key defender and no Lever.