Fat Tony

The Cats have realised that the key with Free Agency is really salary cap management - not drafting - and this is only possible by consistently making the finals. They obviously got lucky with Father Sons and superstars wanting to come ‘home’, but they also recruited well out of the draft over a long period. They also have one of the best coaches and a massive home ground advantage. While Geelong’s list demographics look terrible and it looks a bit like a Ponzi scheme on the edge of collapse, it looked the same pre Dangerfield. I wouldn’t be betting on a big dramatic fall given the Cats’ structural advantages and superior management.

At least wth Ratugolea you will be getting his best years. With Brown you are getting a player who is past his prime and best at playing in a position which potentially no longer exists.

Hogan doesn’t have any value in picks given his contract.

This might suit our side. Kick it long to Gawn in the pocket and have our best snappers on the boundary line to take the free.

Great post. This doesn't also include the fact that we have a logjam in the midfield and one midfielder (Harmes or Brayshaw) either misses out on selection or we have a midfielder rotate through a spot in the forward line. I know you like Viney forward, but my view is Petracca should start in the middle for centre bounces and then almost play as a permanent forward after the game re-starts. He is the best forward in our midfield group and can play more minutes that way. I would use Dangerfield (vs Collingwood) and the way Dusty plays as the template for Petracca. This way, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw and Harmes can all play midfield, along with Petracca in the hybrid role. I would also consider pushing Melksham back to half back. I know he struggled a bit in the backline in 2017, but he was playing as the deepest small defender then. Hibberd/Lockhart can play the deep small defender role for us. I think Ben Brown and Weideman would play the same role and share many of the same weaknesses. I am circumspect whether Brown is the right fit for us. I also think we are underestimating the improvement of Jackson, Weideman and Fritsch have in them. And that Brown has probably already played his best football. I don't like both Pickett and Spargo in the same side and much prefer Hunt/Hannon. Having both is one too many midgets. My seven, without Brown would be Weideman, Jackson, Fritsch, Petracca, Hunt, Pickett and another midsize player (which could be Melksham but I think we need someone who tackles). I think if Brown becomes the seventh player we become too top heavy and leak pressure.

I’m not against trading our future first rounder, but we could easily have a poor season. I would only ever do it if it was valued at the average points of the first round, which is around #5. (The value index is asymptotic.)

This was a really good post until you suggested Fritsch has played his best football in the backline. He was a turnover merchant in defence last year, biting off more than he could chew with his kicking.

Smith sounds like is the priority and we’ll look at other options like Polec and Phillips if he stays.

Sam Edmund stated on SEN that he doesn't see a trade being likely given TMac's contract. I don't see any team putting their hands up given his output last year unless we pay most of the contract and given him away for a token pick. I would continue to shop him around, but I think we should plan for TMac to remain a Demon.

Would consider taking Mumford as steak knives as part of a trade if he would play for low wages.

Weideman was 11th ranked in the AFL for marks inside 50 and 25th in the AFL for contested marks. He improved a lot in the air this year. But he still averaged less than 8 possessions a game. So I disagree that he really has very many 'tricks' other than his one wood. That's not to say he cannot be a good/great player. Tomahawk has almost been the MVP of the competition this year and Weideman plays a similar style game. Mihocek is also a low possession player, but he is a dead eye in front of goal, with 90.53 for his career. He also tackles (2 per game), which is why I think he could be a third banana alongside Weideman and Jackson. (Gunston would be better again, but he is not out of contract and would cost a lot more/seems unattainable.)

The biggest issue with Weideman and Ben Brown together would be the lack of tackling and chasing pressure. Fritsch also is a weak link in that regard. While we definitely need to improve our forward line, I think the answer needs to be with a player who is better on the ground. I think we have invested too much in Weideman and Jackson to not build around them and I think both are likely to come good.

Weideman is really a number 1 or nothing in my view. He needs to clunk marks and kick straight and be the main man. He doesn’t offer enough outside of his aerial ability to be a second stringer. Ben Brown might be a better player, but I think Mihocek would be a better fit with Weideman and Jackson.

I am happy to trade him, because he is surplus to our needs. But I don't want us to do what the market sees as being a fair trade. I want to extract the maximum return. My view is that Preuss will become a very good player. Ruckmen of that size have been shown to have a big advantage and I think he has shown enough to suggest that he will be at least a good AFL ruckman. The trade will be seen as a loss down the track IMO, but he is not going to get a game ahead of Max.

Brown is out of contract so whoever gets him will pay his full salary.

The Hawks have had a similar model and won 3. They have really only fallen off the perch since they started cutting their veterans.

My view on veterans is that they offer are better value return than draft picks. Geelong's model is the one to follow. The Cats have managed to beat the system by attracting veterans to help them stay in the finals race. This success means that their stars take less money. And in an era of free agency, being successful also helps attract quality free agents. The Cat's short-term strategy also has shown to have long term rewards. This is not to say Lewis Jetta is the player to target, as he might be finished, but he has pace and skill, which we are lacking.

Lewis Jetta has fallen out of favour at WCE. I haven’t followed his form closely but he could be a player worth looking at.

If we go for Polec, I would be willing to overpay in terms of draft picks this year to get NM to pay more of his salary. i.e. I would be happy to trade #23 for Polec if NM pay all his wages or #47 if they only pay half. My thinking is that this draft will be a crapshoot.

We traded Jesse Hogan for May at the end of 2018. So we made list changes.

Recruiting is a lottery.

We have taken about 10 players from Casey over the years and missed two of the best. ?

Pleased to see he didn’t miss the dotted line.

I totally agree on Jackson. He could be something special if he gets his marking together. It was really interesting how the Cats played last night, with Blicavs effectively playing as an around the ground ruckman after the bounce and Stanley moving forward. I don't think we would do this as Gawn is such a roadblock when we don't have the ball, but it gave a bit of a blueprint as to how we could use Jackson. I think the key is to have very few forwards who can't tackle and chase and compete when the ball hits the ground. It is not really about the number of talls and smalls. A forward line of six of Buddy Franklin would be amazing even though it would be ginormous because he is so fast. A forward line of six of Charlie Cameron would also probably work because he is pretty good in the air. The big issue for us is that Weideman is fairly ordinary when the ball hits the deck. (In addition, Fritsch is a bit of a pressure valve.) We have already invested a lot in Weideman and Jackson so we really need to build around them. Ben Brown is similar to Weideman in that he is a very good aerial target but not a great pressure player. This is not to say a trio of talls could not work, but I am a bit sceptical if it would work with Brown and Weideman being two of them.

A 2018 version of TMac could actually fit nicely into our forward line with Weideman and Jackson.