Fat Tony

Smith looks a real prospect from the handful of VFL games I have seen. He has very good breakaway speed and a great leap, which are valuable attributes in the modern game. He obviously needs to build up his body and work on his skills, but he could be a big surprise packet next year.

I think you can only have one very slow player in the midfield but not two in modern football. (Ideally you would prefer to have none.) Tyson is that player for us at the moment. Both Lewis and Tyson in the middle would just leave us to exposed on the spread and both are pure inside midfielders and both would be in our best 22 on talent. Barlow produces similar numbers possession wise to Lewis and more tackles. He is not as good a kick or overly penetrating. But his salary would be half that of Lewis, so I just see him as better value if we are going down this track. And he has also shown good ability to play a defensive role on speedy midfielders like Robbie Gray. I see inside midfielders as our lowest priority need at the moment. And our depth in this area means that we have inside midfielders who have to play on the outside and are not that well suited to it. i.e. Brayshaw on the wing.

He would make our slow midfield slower. Jones, Viney, Tyson, Oliver, Brayshaw and Vince provide enough grunt. We need some pace and class on the outside not experience.

Lewis is still a very good player but he is slow and not the type of player we need IMO. He is very similar to Dom Tyson and I feel our other inside players are not quick enough to compensate for the lack of pace we would have from playing both Tyson and Lewis. Personally, I think Michael Barlow is a better option if we go down this track, as he is slightly younger and would not command the same salary as Lewis. I also think Barlow is slightly quicker than Lewis and better defensively.

They should ship off a lesser player for a draft pick if they need the cap space. As I said, Hawthorn are in the premiership window and this makes them worse. The pick they get for Sam Mitchell won't be enough to help them get O'Meara and Tom Mitchell.

I don't know how anyone can think this is good for Hawthorn. It looks like they will lose their best and fairest, who was on a low wage contract, for a low draft pick. And at a time while they are in the premiership window. It could well cost them a flag.

The answer to fixing this is via the salary cap. Give the wooden spooner $100K more cap space than 17th, and 17th $100K more than 16th etc. This would mean that the bottom team would have an extra $1.7m in the salary cap than the premier. Players could then become free agents from after the initial contract but the competition would still be even.

I like Tuohy as a footballer and think he would add to our side. But I think we have missed the boat. He will either end up at Geelong or stay at Carlton.

Wells said that cap space, not picks would be the big issue with bringing in Tuohy and Deledio.

I don't mind Mzungu either, but he turns 31 in February 2016 and his kicking lets him down. He only played 5 games this year.

I am happy to hear he has signed and committed. While I am not as confident in Hogan becoming a superstar as others on Demonland, he is still a very good player and could potentially end up being a great one. This needed to happen prior to trade week IMO given his trade value and contract size, so it is a bit of a relief it is all over.

Patton played well last night, but no better than Smith or Dickson. And it doesn't change the fact that the Coleman winner's goal tally has declined over the last 20 years. And none of Hawkins, Podsiadly or Mooney were "great key forwards" from 2007 to 2011. (Hawkins had a great grand final.) Geelong's dynasty was build on its midfield and defence.

Who was Geelong's great key forward? I don't even think Hawthorn had one after Buddy left. IMO last nights game showed how effective modern team defensive strategies have become at nullifying the power forwards. Cameron clearly didn't work hard enough last night, but there wasn't many instances I saw where he was involved in the play and made significant errors. (I would also doubt he covered significantly different territory than his usual distance covered.) And this was against a Dogs team that has a below average set of tall defenders. I loved the game in the 80s and 90s when key forwards were the most important players in the game. But the game has changed and coaches are not willing to let key forwards contest one on one. The midfield is where most games are now won and lost.

I don't agree that Darling is not a power forward. He plays the same position as Hogan IMO. But I digress. And I really think you are missing the point, which is that players improve at different rates. Hogan has had a great first two/three years, but many players who start their careers strongly don't progress to the levels that most expect. My biggest concern with Hogan is that his strengths are very good and don't need improving significantly, but his weaknesses have not improved in the last two years. He is still an inconsistent kick for goal and applies poor defensive pressure. He also doesn't get enough goals from ground level play.

This is such hyperbole. He is playing in the same generation as Ablett Jnr, Buddy Franklin, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Cameron, Lynch. I don't even think Hogan is the best prospect on our list!

Sorry, you are correct. He kicked 24, 53 and 42 in his first three years.

But this was the point I was making. Bif has used statistics to compare him to a small sample of players, which is selective. I was just pointing out that there are players who have started their careers better than Hogan but have not then kicked on. I think Hogan could be great, but he will have to improve on his clear weaknesses. His strengths are already very good and there are limits to how much they can improve. (i.e. his endurance, strength, reading the play, marking). In particular, he needs to improve his chasing (which is poor) and his goal kicking (which looks terrible).

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22. The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

But have we offered contracts to any of the other players out of contract at the end of 2017? Certainly none which equate to 10% of the salary cap.

I think america de cali makes some valid points around the importance of spreading the load when it comes to goal kicking. Most premiership sides are built with multiple forward options. And a forward line including Hogan becomes quite one dimensional because he is a very good mark but offers little on the deck. Moreover, there is yet to be a premiership side where one player takes up more than 10% of the salary cap. (Sydney got closest, but they had the advantage of COLA.) I would be willing to pay Hogan that much if I was confident he could have the influence on games of Fyfe, Ablett, Dangerfield or Franklin, but while I think Hogan will improve, I just don't think he will get to that bracket. The other thing to add is that AFL defences have moved from man on man to zone defence. This, along with the congestion in the midfield, has decreased the value of good key forwards overall, and increased the value of small/mid sized forwards who are good overhead and inside midfielders.

Criminally underrated on Demonland? Really? A high proportion of posters think he will be one of the best handful of players in the competition.

Hogan is significantly overrated on Demonland IMO. He is a good young player at the moment and his stats compare very favourably to other key forwards of his age. But he is nearly 100kg now and came into the league with enough strength to compete from the start of his career. Will he get better? Sure, but he is not too far off his prime IMO. He would need to become a bona fide star of the competition like Buddy to be worth paying 10% of the salary cap for. This is less likely than likely in my view and not the fait accompli that most on here believe. While Hogan's strengths are very good, I think he has a number of weaknesses. Obviously his goal kicking is not great (although I think this can be improved). His lack of defensive effort to chase and tackle is my biggest concern and appears part of his mindset. He offers little when the ball hits the deck. He also doesn't have a great leap. I also think that Games are won in the midfield and the big forwards are much less important than they once were. If he doesn't want to sign a reasonable contract prior to the trade period, I would be looking at offers to trade him this year.

Hibberd will be a good get. Of the veterans, in order, I would prefer: 1. Harvey 2. Barlow (if we get him cheaply enough in terms of draft pick) – He doesn’t fit our need for speed, but he is only 28. 3. Dal Santo 4. Thompson While I think outside run is our greatest need, I wouldn’t go for Wells as he is too injury prone. MacKenzie is a caravan defender who hasn’t been able play in the Eagles new defensive system. I don’t think he suits our needs given we are playing a zone defence also.

I am a fan of Watts playing the role. He is reasonable in the centre bounces and we can use a third man up around the ground where he gets out bodied. Watts also has good second efforts once the ball hits the deck and he is also far too mobile for his opponent around the ground. This is not to say we should not nab a Jenkins, Lobb or Wright if they come cheaply and we should still look to continue to develop such a player. (Hopefully King.) As you say, we cannot go with Hogan, Weideman, and Watts plus another tall.

I think it's an easy question to answer. N Jones, Viney, Oliver and Tyson all play 70-80% game time as centre square mids and are not really suited to playing elsewhere. And they are all obviously bonafide AFL footballers. Unless we trade one of them out for a better option, I don't see how another inside mid is required. Added to that we have Brayshaw, Petracca and Vandenberg who have all shown potential to become AFL standard inside mids. Plus Vince, who is still in our best eight players and still seems to play his best footy in the midfield. On the outside we have Stretch, Bugg and M Jones. That's not to say I would say no to Fyfe or Dangerfield.