Fat Tony

Two years would be stupid. One year for TMac but we should try to retain him.

This is a great site https://www.wheeloratings.com/

I thought we played well and were well coached. The main positives were Pickett, Gawn, Petty and Viney. But... Oliver is a massive liability. He is struggling to find the ball and then can't retain possession because he lacks acceleration, balance and composure. We can debate if he will get back to being a positive, but if he doesn't improve we won't be a premiership threat for the course of his contract. Hore takes a nice intercept mark, but is not a good enough kick (slow and imprecise), not quick enough and falls to ground too often. Rivers had a poor night by foot. I don't see the appeal of McVee in the midfield. He is just not big or quick enough off the mark to be great inside the phone box. We could play him higher up the field in defence, but I think the backline is his spot.

Max had an AFL player rating of 30.0 on Saturday night, which was his 5th best game ever. He also had 177 Supercoach points, which was his 7th highest ever. (Surprisingly his AFL player rating for the Cats prelim game was only 24.4.)

Goodwin spoke about the expectations we have for our players when they put on a Melbourne jumper. Let's hope we see those expectations be met by the players tonight. I also hope that our supporters show up. While we need the players to show more grit, it would be good if the supporters did the same.

There is a difference between good drafting and having good draft picks. The advantages of trading picks for good established AFL players are several. Firstly, it takes away the risk of blowing up your draft capital. Secondly, it helps to finish higher up the ladder, which in turn enables you to retain talent without overpaying for players and it helps to recruit free agents and players from other clubs when they come out of contract in future years. The draft is highly compromised now with the academies/father sons and it is still very inefficient because the gap between under 18 football and the AFL is enormous. This means that players like Turner, McVee and Chandler (and Houston ironically) completely slip through the net. Managing the salary cap is much more important given the compromised and inefficient draft and because player movement is almost entirely dictated by the players.

I thought the decision was announced that future picks two years out were not tradable this year (but will be next year).

I think the changes to the system will be beneficial to the Victorian/WA/SA clubs.

Summary: Geelong and Melbourne interested in contracted West Coast forward Jake Waterman. Waterman, 26, is seeking to renegotiate the contract he signed last year. Waterman re-signed until the end of 2025 at the end of last season in a deal that is believed to be worth around $400,000 to $450,000 a season, taking him to free agency. Waterman has kicked 44 goals in 16 games this year. Waterman has missed three games this year due to a concussion, shoulder and knee injury and has kicked multiple goals in 12 games including six against Richmond in round five. It is believed both Melbourne and Geelong are likely to put forward long-term contracts to Waterman. West Coast are also in negotiations with Waterman, who is believed to be wanting a four to five year deal. The Cats are also targeting Western Bulldogs midfielder Bailey Smith. Waterman had interest last year from Fremantle, Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn last year before he re-signed with the Eagles. Waterman played his 100th game at the weekend against Fremantle, kicking three goals from 12 touches. Oscar Allen is also out of contract at the end of next season. West Coast have 12 players without contracts for next year as they look to rebuild their list under a new coach.

If Houston is not in our demographic, when are we building to win the flag then? Oliver is 27. Petracca and Lever are 28. Gawn and May will be 33 next year. I think the idea of taking Cumming and keeping our picks makes sense if we can pull it off, but I don't agree that Houston is necessarily a poor demographic fit. The direction we go over the off-season will reflect our confidence in Oliver being able to get back to being an A-grade player. If we don't have that confidence, we might need to make some other moves with older players to refresh the list and alleviate pressure on the salary cap.

Selection is very tricky this week. Tholstrup should come back into the side if fit and Sparrow should come back in after a strong VFL performance. The problem is that they both play similar roles and we are more deficient in other parts of the ground. I also want to see Howes come back in to the side at some point and think he has a brighter future than both Woewodin and AMW. Howes is just a bit more classy and has more length. Woewodin needs to go harder at the ball and use both hands. AMW is not there with his kicking and he lacks a left side (or he has no confidence using it). AMW also seems to run out of gas at the end of games. I don't like playing the same sub twice in a row, so Turner needs to start IMO. Turner needs to play AFL, as he is good enough. I would put Melksham as the sub this week, otherwise the forward line balance is out. It is a six-day break and Melksham is coming back from injury, so less minutes would also make sense for him this week. I am also not sure how he would go playing on Rory Lobb anyway. Windsor is out injured. So I would play Billings on the left wing in his place. (Hunter needs to play a full VFL game to be really considered.) I like having a left sided winger, particularly given we are playing a down the line game. I know Billings is far from perfect, but he is the best option for the wing this week. Bowey was poor against GWS but I think we need what he can offer (pace and kicking) and would like to see him retained. We are already carrying other below average small backs in defence (AMW and Woewodin). Laurie had a better statistical game that I thought watching live on Saturday night, with an AFL player rating of 11.7. Usually I am calling for Laurie to go out, but that was his most productive game by a mile on all metrics. I still think he panics too much when he gets the ball and has poor disposal with no penetration. It would be tough to drop him, as Sparrow has had only 2/18 better games than 11.7 this year and Tholstrup 1/6 games. If we retain Laurie and want to bring in Tholstrup and Sparrow, we could shift Rivers back into defence in order to fit Sparrow and Tholstup in. This also not ideal given Bontempelli is the best player in the competition and so we need some midfielders with size. We also need to consider Treloar, who is playing extremely well. As I said, selection is very tricky this week. But I definitely want to see Billings retained as the left winger and Melksham and Turner swap as sub. And this all assumes that Gawn gets up to play.

Disappointing but hopefully he gets back for finals!!

We are playing enough young players. I want us to win 8 in a row.

3 wins will probably get us there. But I think this week is must win.

The Dogs are in great form but quite a few clubs have had big let downs after a 5-day break. Hopefully Gawn is fit enough to play.

In 2021, Salem received coaches votes in 10/25 games and had an average player rating of 9.7 per game. Since 2021 he has played 43 games and had coaches votes in just 3/43 games, with an average player rating of 7.0 per game. If we get Houston, he will become the loose defender behind the ball and I am not sure if Salem can play another role. With Salem going on 30, I think we are better giving games to younger, more dynamic players.

I think Salem is 'cooked'. He has lost pace and penetration in his kicking. He cannot kick more than 45 metres anymore and the speed of his kicks is also much slower. He is still a smart player, but his loss of strength and pace also means he is not as good as he was in the contest. Plus he is getting more soft tissue injuries.

Obviously great news. Tasmania will be the main threat next time.

I know it will draw a lot of ire, but Mason Cox could be an option to be a backup ruck/forward. Click here for vomit emoji

Yes, but he would likely go back to WA for squillions if he leaves.

I don't see the big issue with going uninsured. If Max gets injured for long stretch, we are not going to win the flag anyway. It is challenging to recruit a decent back up ruck because we have Gawn. And we managed to get through Gawn's injury with a 1-1 record, with both games against top 8 sides. (I don't think we would have beaten Freo in Perth even if we still had Grundy as our back up.) Hopefully Verrell becomes an AFL level player as he gets stronger.

I am pretty confident we will win this week. We will have the edge in the air and our zone will suffocate the Giants.

Not only is effort a non negotiable but it can't be taught. Still think Jefferson was a strange Jason Taylor pick. He does some nice things in a game, but he shows no desperation. He is a less skilful Fritsch with less intensity.

I expect Salem to miss due to his hamstring. I think Howes coming in as his replacement makes sense. I am not sure who goes out for Gawn? Possibly Melksham or Tholstrup plays as the sub. Kynan Brown was best for Casey and could come in. I expect we will beat GWS. The Suns were actually +20 on X Score last match and the Tigers +5 on X Score the week before.