Fat Tony

Armstrong looks to be very naturally skilled and coordinated, but he has an ordinary ground game and, with his light frame, there would have to be some doubts on his ability to get strong enough to out body AFL defenders. I think if we go this way, it is a bad sign on how we view Jefferson's prospects.

This thread would be better if it was merged with the Pick 9 thread given they are so close together and there is so much uncertainty about the top order of the draft. The strategy we adopt might also depend on who we expect to go at #6, #7 and #8.

Petracca really white anted the club in more ways than one this offseason. Some other problems we have at the moment are that Connors has too much power and that we are viewed as lepers. We need to discreetly lobby the AFL to introduce anti-concentration measures in the player agencies, while doing everything we can to improve our relationship with Connors and co.

I think they changed the system so players can be Rookie listed ahead of the Rookie draft, so long as they were not bid on in the National Draft.

I never like the strategy in these trades. We are paying credit card interest and next year we will hear about how good the top end of the draft is.

Alix Tauru’s highlights look as good as any prospect in the draft. If recruiters think he will develop into a midfielder, he looks to be the full package. Tauru and Smith might be the players with the fewest weaknesses.

Viney is not much of a forward IMO. Given our list construct, with Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Pickett as good centre square players (assuming Oliver's hand heals) the perfect draftee for us would be a player who can play 2025 in a periphery role but can develop into a centre midfielder in future years. The Dogs drafted Rylie Sanders, who looks a centre midfield only, and they got limited value out of him this year as he wasn't able to play another role. By contrast, Windsor was able to play as a wing (or probably half back or half forward) and was more valuable this year. I think the bigger centre circle and the 6,6,6 rule has made a difference in what types of midfielders do well at centre bounces and that skill and speed has become more important than grunt.

Longmire has zero in the last decade.

I have come to realise how lucky we are to have Goodwin. One of our superstars has ADHD and addictive tendencies. And another is self centred. And neither of them can regularly hit a target inside 50. The whole playing group could have easily fractured and turned on each other with a poorer coach.

Surely the better strategy is to bring in a ready made replacement when Max is done, rather than take the risk of drafting a ruckman.

We might have also been able to get Tholstrup with our original pick. The whole concept of pushing up the draft is very expensive but it can be justified because we have been doing it to improve our team while we have Petracca, Gawn and Oliver in their prime. I am not sure that it holds anymore and, rather than paying credit card interest rates, I think we should be more willing to receive it.

AFL footy is a 24/7 job, not just what happens on match day.

It might look a bad deal to you, but you don't know the full story and have to work with Oliver every day.

I think we are effectively asking the Cats to put up their best offer by today or we will shut it down before the best and fairest. The media firestorm is too much for the club to handle for another 2 weeks. Either the Cats really want him and will pay his wage and give a 2025 first rounder or we will kiss and make up.

We might be able to trade him in the future, but we won't necessarily be able to clear his cap hit.

Clubs can front load contracts, which can be used in subsequent years. The draft is inefficient due to drafting U18s and clubs can can pick up high quality AFL players without premium picks. The draft is inefficient due to the academy systems and father son. With free agency and the power of the key player agents, player movement is easy.

Cap space is much more important.

Here’s a 25-point summary of the article on Clayton Oliver's potential trade from Melbourne to Geelong: Melbourne Demons face a crisis over Clayton Oliver's looming trade to Geelong. The club is weighing whether to keep a disenchanted Oliver or trade him for less value. Oliver feels unsupported and let down by the Demons after being used as trade bait twice. Melbourne risks further deterioration if Oliver stays without feeling fully invested. Despite tensions, Oliver may attend the Demons' best and fairest night out of loyalty to teammates. Oliver wants to move to Geelong, and his manager, Nick Gieschen, is working on the deal. Geelong is calm and confident about the trade, sitting in a strong negotiating position. The Cats are expected to offer a future first-round pick for Oliver, which is seen as a bargain. Geelong's psychologist, David Williams, formerly of Melbourne, knows Oliver well. Oliver could join Bailey Smith at Geelong, potentially revitalising both players’ careers. This trade would give Geelong a powerful midfield boost alongside other recent acquisitions. The situation highlights Melbourne's broader issues, including internal crises and player discontent. Melbourne initially stated Oliver was staying, but his positive meeting with Geelong changed that. The club finds it hard to reverse course after considering trading Oliver for two consecutive years. Gary Pert, Melbourne CEO, is under fire for his role in the handling of Oliver’s situation. Oliver feels abandoned after following the club's off-field expectations to improve personally. Coach Simon Goodwin repeatedly praised Oliver's development but now faces the fallout of trade talks. Despite personal challenges, Oliver remains a top player, winning four best-and-fairest awards. The trade saga is another setback for Melbourne after the Joel Smith drugs suspension and other controversies. Christian Petracca, another Melbourne star, has also had grievances with the club. Dan Houston rejected a move to Melbourne after hearing about the club's cultural issues. Oliver’s close relationship with captain Max Gawn adds further complexity to the trade. If traded, Geelong would likely pay most of Oliver’s $1.4 million salary, with Melbourne potentially contributing. Melbourne may use the trade to reset its culture and salary cap, similar to Collingwood’s past rebuild. The trade could signal the end of Melbourne's premiership window, raising concerns among fans. The situation highlights internal turmoil at Melbourne and Geelong's strategic opportunity to capitalise on the Demons' mismanagement of a star player.

I don't understand why everyone is blaming the club for taking this course of action. Without being inside the club, you don't really know how much of a detractor Oliver has been. Oliver went off the rails last year because he was a DH. Not because of mismanagement. He has been guided and supported his whole adult life and he is still making terrible life decisions at 27. If anything, I would praise the club for being able to turn Oliver into such a wonderful player over the last decade despite his personality issues. There was no way to orchestrate a trade without the media getting knowledge of it. The opposition clubs and Oliver's manager were always going to let it out to increase their bargaining power. The other clubs don't want to bring in a distraction on a huge wage. The MFC's choices are either a terrible trade or stick with Oliver and his roughly $1.4m contract for the next 6 years. I hope we have the courage to walk things back if the offer is too outrageous, particularly in terms of dollars.

Summary: Talks at Melbourne on Thursday involving CEO Gary Pert, football boss Alan Richardson, coach Simon Goodwin, and list chief Tim Lamb could decide Oliver's future. Melbourne is considering whether it's best to trade Oliver as part of a cultural and salary cap reset. A trade to Geelong would be challenging as their top pick (15th) is already committed to Western Bulldogs in the Smith deal. Melbourne might target a Geelong player, but key forward Shannon Neale is unlikely to be included after recently breaking into the senior side. Adelaide, who showed interest last year, is not in the mix this year. As recently as this week, Melbourne had planned to keep Oliver, but he's now considering a move to Geelong, being dangled as trade bait for the second year in a row. Pert contacted at least one other club regarding Oliver, with the full support of Melbourne’s list management committee. There are concerns the trade talks may damage the relationship between Oliver and Melbourne, as he's reportedly upset about being considered for a trade again. Oliver is managed by influential agents Paul Connors and Nick Gieschen. Oliver is excited by the prospect of joining Geelong, but the Cats are not actively pushing the trade, leaving the decision in Melbourne's hands. If Melbourne explores the trade, Geelong may offer a future first-round pick, but Melbourne would likely also request a player. The Demons might have to cover part of Oliver’s seven-figure salary if he moves to Geelong. If adequate compensation can't be secured, Melbourne might retain Oliver for another year despite some internal unrest.

My read on the MFC strategy is that we want to see if we can trade Oliver to clean up our salary cap. We see Oliver as an overpaid player who is in decline and believe he is a trouble maker. While Pert had the initial discussions to get the ball rolling, the whole club is on the same page that Oliver should be traded if we can strike the right deal. By having Pert drive things, the coaches and rest of the footy department can say they "want to keep him" and we will be able to walk it back if the deal is insufficient. I think Geelong are going to want to get Oliver for next to nothing in picks and have us to pay a massive chunk of his wages. I hope we don't do this trade but I back the club on this. They know how difficult to manage Oliver is and the whole footy department (except for Taylor) have their jobs on the line, so they won't want to do a lopsided trade either.

I am fine to see OIiver traded but I don't see the point in us paying a huge chunk of salary cap space as part of the deal. We should make it clear to his manager that this is a deal breaker for us and if they can't find a club willing to pay almost all the contract we should shut it down early. We should be prepared to take a token pick to clear him out if it clears us of his future wages.

Here is a summary: Geelong Cats are targeting Carlton Blues forward Jack Martin for the 2024 AFL season. Jack Martin, 29, chose Geelong over Fremantle, hoping to overcome his soft-tissue injuries at his new club. Geelong could also secure Western Bulldogs’ Bailey Smith, who requested a move to the Cats. There’s a long shot possibility that Clayton Oliver of Melbourne could join Geelong, pending a decision by the Demons. Melbourne will hold talks to decide Clayton Oliver’s future, which could result in a trade. Melbourne is considering whether trading Oliver would benefit their salary cap and culture reset. Geelong will acquire Jack Martin as a delisted free agent, avoiding a trade for the forward. Geelong’s draft pick #15 is committed to the Bailey Smith deal, limiting their trade assets for Oliver. Melbourne may request a player from Geelong if the Oliver trade progresses, though Shannon Neale is likely off the table. Geelong showed interest in Oliver earlier in 2024, but Adelaide is no longer pursuing him. Melbourne contacted at least one other club regarding Oliver, which may have strained relations with the player. Oliver is intrigued by the idea of moving to Geelong but the club isn’t actively driving the trade. If Oliver, Smith, and Martin join, Geelong’s midfield will be significantly bolstered for 2025. Geelong could offer a future first-round pick for Oliver, but Melbourne would likely request additional compensation. Melbourne might have to cover part of Oliver’s salary if the trade goes through. If compensation isn’t adequate, Melbourne could opt to retain Oliver despite internal issues. Sydney veteran Luke Parker has requested a trade to North Melbourne, ending a 14-year career with the Swans. Parker, 31, has played 293 games for Sydney and was the last member of their 2012 premiership team. GWS player Wade Derksen has asked for a trade to Melbourne for family reasons, but the Giants are hesitant to let him go. Several key GWS players are leaving as free agents, making the club reluctant to allow Derksen to be traded.

I am not sure the powerbrokers at the club are not on the same page on the strategy here. I think everyone involved would trade Oliver for the right price. He is difficult to manage, unprofessional and being paid like a top 10 player in the game. But there will be varying views on the need to trade him for cultural reasons and varying views on what a good deal looks like.