Fat Tony

https://x.com/Sammy__Edmund/status/1973571413245305299

The salary cap is more like a pipe than a jigsaw puzzle. If we have less cap pressure we can make deals in future years. We are not in contention for a flag anymore, so we need to retain space, keep list flexibility and turn the list over.

This makes less and less sense if we are trading Petracca. Our list management seems to be lacking a clear direction.

If Petracca goes to GCS and the Crows target Oliver, that would be great as long as we can get off his money.

Who is arguing the draft is not the most effective way? I am just saying you can get elite players without high picks (like Gawn, Harmes, McDonald, Bowey, Rivers, Neal-Bullen, Spargo, Jordan, Sparrow, Petty).

It is fine to pick at the top of the draft if you own the pick but the effective interest rate to buy into the current year's draft is 30-40%. It doesn't make sense for us to be impatient now that we are not competing for a premiership. The game is rigged in favour of Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, GWS, Brisbane and Gold Coast. I would doubt we have the room to go for Flanders, Soligo and go after big FAs in 2026. Kossie and Oliver are both on huge money. We need to maintain optionality and make us attractive enough to attract players without overpaying them. We are playing a perpetual game, not a one off.

You cannot seriously be arguing that the draft is efficient? North and WCE have been at the bottom forever and are still stuck there. My argument is that clubs can recruit good players with lower picks and we should not fall for the trap of always trying to get up higher in the draft because there is a cost to it. Winning flags takes a combination of luck and strategy and should not be the only measure of optimal strategy. Our optimal strategy now is to be patient and let Taylor earn his money and find good players in hidden places like the Cats did with Holmes, Mannah, Dempsy, Blicavs, Close, Stewart, Guthrie and Neale. We went for the flag in 2022-2024 and now we take our medicine.

It can be faster than you think if we draft well. But we just need to be patient, because it is a bit of a lottery. This means keeping cap space, gettting Oliver back to his best, recruiting players than can play on the periphery early in their careers and then hopefully moving inside mid later on.

I don't think we should do what Richmond are doing. They have been adopting a scortched earth approach. We still have enough young talent to be competitive. Kossie, Rivers, Bowey, Langford, Turner, Chandler, Sparrow, JVR, Langdon (could play a long career), Windsor, Adams, Lindsay and Tholstrup are all potentially good players with time on their side. We should be looking at trying to do what Hawthorn have done and I would argue our base looks better than what they had 3 years ago. It is hard a painful when you have to admit you are no longer in the window, but the sooner we do it the better.

It is the danger with any long term contracts. And we need to spread any front loading across the playing list. But look at what Hawthorn and St Kilda are doing. The league is cyclical. We need to make room and get some good young talent from the depths of the draft.

We use the dollars to pay off more of the Kossie and Oliver contracts and give us more flexibility in future years. We need to start thinking about strategy into perpetity to win the most flags we can over the long run. We are no longer in the window, so we have to pivot and get our cap under control and turn the list over with short term contracts.

1 There is no Langford in this draft in the range we will be picking (or at all). 2 The draft is not efficent. Geelong have had no top 5 picks in 25 years. They are perpetually good because they recruit well with lower picks and manage their salary cap ruthlessly. Every year we hear about the top draftees and how good they are but there are always busts. It is hard to know how players will transition from U18 to VFL. Once Petracca goes we need to be patient and build slowly. This means doing what St Kilda have been doing with their salary cap and drafting better like Geelong and Hawthorn. A top 6 pick in a poor draft is not worth $2m in cap space. (Just because you cannot see the salary cap does not mean it is not important.)

Keep the salary cap clean and take less in picks. That's $2m of cap space in total.

I like JVR in the ruck. He competes hard and it gets him involved in the game. I don't see the extra player being a ruckman for us.

It will only be possible if Soligo wants to come to Melbourne.

Soligo is worth tempting to leave but the Crows won't want to trade him.

I believe it goes up with the TPP for Petracca as well.

You can do that for a better pick - that reduces the ability to retain players and recruit other players in future years. Cap space is much more important than picks. It is our most valuable asset. Geelong haven't had a good pick for 25 years and have shown this. BTW I doubt there will be a decent player in this trade. It will be a decent pick and steak knives.

Rachele is overpaid anyway. Take future draft picks, reset our cap and find some players who can't get a regular game (i.e. Oliver Henry, James Leake, Lachie Sullivan, Finn Macinness, Wade Derksen, Luke Pedlar).

Now that Petracca has stated he want out, we should be making clear to him that we won't be paying him if he leaves and he will need to take a pay cut.

It is $1.3 -> $1.8m as the salary cap increases. It is a bad contract now. We signed it to win when we were in contention but we are paying the piper now.

I am still not convinced Essendon will trade Merrett. I was talking to one of Hawthorn's assistant coaches on the weekend and he was saying how poor a kick Petracca is.

Strategically, we should be taking a step back and resetting our salary cap. Max might have one more year as an elite player but I doubt we can win the flag next year. Petracca is a good player but he is a below average kick and has become a poor tackler. That said, we should only let him go if the deal works for us. Bring in some no names on short deals and turn the list over in the next few years. I know this sucks, but we need to think like St Kilda in 2012, Hawthorn in 2020 and Richmond now. Look at Geelong's grand final team and there were a lot of players who were picked up with low picks. It wasn't all rorting and lucky free agents.

I would much rather see us trade for less in picks and keep our cap clear. We can find good players lower in the draft.