Fat Tony

Petty and TMac are one of the key decisions. The other is where Rivers plays. There is only 240 midfield minutes to go around and Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Pickett and Langford will take the bulk of them. Rivers could be a bit part midfielder, but that would mean he would also play as a forward, which he hasn't done before. I think it is unlikely that he plays as a midfielder/defender given how Goodwin likes to structure the side.

Salem can only kick 45m and is not as fast as Bowey. He has been a league average or below average player since 2022. Of Oliver, Viney and Petracca, only Petracca is an above average forward. Kossie needs minutes in the midfield, as will Langford. There is only 240 midfield minutes to go around and I think Rivers is a well above average defender.

This is close to my thoughts. I would have Rivers back, Sparrow in the forward/mids and Salem out. Lindsay also hopefully bashes the door down. I also don’t like not having Melksham in the side because he helps our forwards function better.

Christmas is a time to re-watch the 2021 grand final!

The key defenders typically play 85-90% game time, which means half a game where all three are on the ground. I don’t think it works if the coaches want to maintain a defensive 7, which they like for cohesion and because it makes rotations easier.

TMac really played CHB. I think we would be too slow and susceptible to the ground ball if we had May, Lever, TMac and Petty in the same side (particularly if conditions are not perfect). The Cats have played with more tall defenders than most sides in recent years but they don't have Max Gawn and play home games on a very narrow ground.

If we have no injuries, I think Rivers will need to play at half back. There are only 240 playing minutes for centre midfielders and Petracca (50), Oliver (60), Viney (50) and Kossie (40) will take the bulk of those. We like to play a defensive line up with 7 players and we haven’t historically had midfielders rotate to half back. So Rivers would need to play half forward for a quarter of the game if he were to also play as a midfielder. We also probably need to find a spot for Langford, who really looks most suited to be a central midfielder. I am not really a fan of Oliver or Viney playing too many minutes forward, as they don’t really have the pace or skill. I like the expected move of Windsor to half back. I see him taking Salem’s role in defence and being or loose man at around the ground stoppages. I think Salem is well past his prime and we need a more dynamic player in that role. I think a defence of May, Lever, TMac/Petty, Rivers, Bowey, McVee and Windsor would be fantastic so long as May can still be a top liner. The forward line is a bit more of an unknown. The midfielders will share about 80 minutes (out of 480 total forward minutes). JVR, Fritsch and Chandler will almost definitely play. And I think Turner is likely but he will need to compete with Melksham, Jefferson and Johnson. Petty may also go forward if we decide that TMac is too good to be left out (which I think he is). And as much as Melksham does not have the size of the other key forwards, I think our forward line functions better with him in it. And Fritsch is really best used as our deepest forward, so we need to consider him as a key forward and pick other tall forward that are mobile enough to play up the ground Langdon will take one wing, while Sparrow, Sharp, Woewodin, Brown, Langford, Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie, McAdam, Spargo and Lindsay are all in the mix to play in wing and/or forward/midfielder roles.

Can we take him under the flora son rule?

As an addendum, this recruiter was not as complimentary about our picks when we drafted Jefferson.

Had a chat to the head recruiter at another club today and he really liked our picks. They didn’t have an early pick and didn’t put a lot of thought into the top of the draft but he had Langford and Smith as his top picks. He also liked Lindsay and thinks he has a good head on his shoulders.

Windsor has excellent hands and decision making in tight. I think he will be an excellent midfielder once he gets the body strength. I much prefer having left footed and right footed wingmen, because it allows us to move the ball more quickly around the boundary. Langdon, Sharp, Winsor and Lindsay give us a few options for the wing.

The season will be determined by the form of our best players (Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Picket, May and Lever). Max and May will be 33 next year and are obviously still key players for us. If they can maintain their current level and Petracca and Oliver give us better production, we will be one of the better sides.

I thought Rivers ball use was better when at half back than in the midfield.

This assumes Petty does not play in the forward line. (I know he is training back at the moment.) But if TMac is able to hold his spot and Petty regains power in his legs after a decent preseason, Petty could still be used as a forward. I also think Rivers is more likely to start at half back if Viney, Petracca and Oliver are all playing.

I look at our best 23 from last year and we have essentially lost ANB and gained Langford (and maybe Lindsay) into the side. With ANB gone, we lost a lot of transition running and pressure acts, but with Langford arriving we potentially added a better kick and better mark in the forward line. So the ANB replacement will be Langford. I don't see Rivers holding a full time spot in the midfield if Petracca, Oliver and Viney are all playing (and I prefer Rivers at half back anyway). Pickett needs to have minutes in the middle as well because he is elite in centre clearance. So I am not sure Langford will get that much time playing as an inside mid. That all said, we need to find a way to replace ANB's transition running and pressure acts. While Langford should be good in these areas of the game, ANB was one of the best in the AFL and had completed 10 AFL preseasons. I think the best solution is to play one less forward target (Fritsch and only two of Petty, Turner and JVR). Petracca and Langford (and maybe Melksham) can play minutes as another hybrid tall target/small.

I think we might play with a smaller forward line next year. Last season we had Petty, JVR, Turner and Fritsch and I could see us going with only three targets. I could also see Langdon and or Sharp playing half forward roles at times if Lindsay is up to AFL level.

Lindsay looks to play a bit like Andrew Gaff, who was small and was good at everything (but not great at anything). He looks strongly left sided with his kicking, so I can see him being used mostly as a left winger.

I see a bit of Marc Murphy in the highlights of Smith.

Are Saturday night games on free to air next year? I thought they were all on pay TV?

Kings birthday and ANZAC eave are home games this year, so that helps the financial situation. Plus, we will probably pick up some night games later in the year if we are still in finals contention.

Windsor will be like that.

I think the second bye is an advantage, but playing an away game in the humid Northern states in March is the biggest problem with being in Opening Round.

I don't really put much blame on Pert for the club's recent issues but a key part of the role is to be the fall guy when things go pear shaped. That said, he is obviously a spin merchant and has not been successful in managing the various crises engulfing the club. The facilities are really an issue because our history being tied to the MCG and because there is no key votes in government support for us. I think the Caulfield plan is going to be hard to get over the line given the cost and the state government's deficit, but hopefully it comes through. The problems with Oliver have been 99% Clarrie's fault, but the way he was shopped around by the club was messy both times and Pert and the club were naive to think we could trade him for anywhere near to what we believe is fair value. Petracca's issues have been mostly unlucky. I don't think the CEO is really to blame. I don't place any fault on Pert for the drug issues. Pert is not responsible for us going out in straight sets in 2022 and 2023.

Prove me wrong please Marty.

An issue we have is that Fritsch really only plays well when he is our deepest forward. He gets lazy with his pressure up the field and isn't as efficient as he should be when kicking inside 50. This means he really plays best as a key forward. Petty and Turner have both shown the ability to play forward and back, which gives us flexibility. Does Armstrong offer a huge point of difference to Turner, Fritsch and Jefferson? I am all for picking him if he can become Jeremy Cameron.