Fat Tony

You’re definitely right about the balance of the side being out with four tall defenders. I want to see Petty forward in Round 1. TMac is a better fit, as he is more mobile.

Watching the recruiting team talk about Henderson, it is hard to believe they went for Johnson.

The Roos also put the intra club match on YouTube in full.

My bet is that TMac plays well in the preseason games and that Petty plays ok but gets played as a forward in Round 1. TMac was the 14th highest rated key defender in the AFL last season based on Wheelo ratings and our best. While this may not be the best way to measure key defenders, he was very good last year and he has reportedly had another good preseason. I also think Petty could be much better as a forward this season than last. His lack of preseason last year meant he lacked power and acceleration. Moreover, our midfield supply was reduced last year due to Oliver being so down and Petracca getting injured. The forward line showed against the Suns that it could work with Petty, Turner and Van Rooyen playing forward.

I don't think the forward line is an easy fix, because our midfield contains a lot a great ball winners but they are ordinary kicks. That said, I think our forward line always looks worse on paper if Melksham is picked as a key forward, but it functions a lot better with him in the role. Richmond won a flag with Jacob Townsend as a key forward and Melksham is a similar and more skilful player.

I’m not convinced Petty is an upgrade on TMac as a defender. TMac was excellent last season.

You have to trust the club, given they would have all the information, but I think our list needs another fast small forward more than a slow inside midfielder.

ANB played an important role in recent years, particularly covering for Petracca in defensive transition. I would like to see Langdon play this role this year, which is a 50% mid and 50% high half forward role. I don't really see the benefit of playing Langdon as a centre bounce midfielder. Gawn, Kossie and Petracca should be in most centre bounces IMO and that leaves only one spot for Viney, Oliver, Rivers, Langford and Sparrow.

I have picked a team based on best and fairest results and All Australian honours. B Frawley May Hibberd HB Vince Lever Woewodin C Johnstone Jones Yze HF J McDonald Robertson Petracca F Green Neitz Davey Fol Gawn Oliver Viney Int White J Rivers Bruce Farmer Sub Moloney Emg Jamar Garland N Brown McLean Year B&F 2nd B&F All Australian Team 2000 Shane Woewodin Jeff White Jeff Farmer 2001 Adem Yze David Neitz 2002 David Neitz Cameron Bruce David Neitz, Adem Yze 2003 Cameron Bruce James McDonald 2004 Jeff White Nathan Brown Jeff White 2005 Travis Johnstone Russell Robertson 2006 James McDonald Cameron Bruce James McDonald 2007 James McDonald (2) Nathan Jones 2008 Cameron Bruce Brock McLean 2009 Aaron Davey Brent Moloney 2010 Brad Green James Frawley James Frawley, Mark Jamar 2011 Brent Moloney Jared Rivers 2012 Nathan Jones Jack Grimes 2013 Nathan Jones (2) Colin Garland 2014 Nathan Jones (3) Dom Tyson 2015 Bernie Vince Jack Viney 2016 Jack Viney Nathan Jones Max Gawn 2017 Clayton Oliver Jack Viney Michael Hibberd 2018 Max Gawn Clayton Oliver Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver 2019 Clayton Oliver (2)/Max Gawn (2) Max Gawn 2020 Christian Petracca Steven May Max Gawn, Christian Petracca 2021 Clayton Oliver (3) Christian Petracca Max Gawn (captain), Jake Lever, Steven May, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca 2022 Clayton Oliver (4) Christian Petracca Steven May, Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn, Christian Petracca 2023 Christian Petracca (2) Jack Viney Christian Petracca 2024 Jack Viney (2) Max Gawn Max Gawn

I favour shorter quarters, shorter half time and more games in a season. Dangerfield makes some good points about reducing the number of overlapping games in a round. The other advantage of shorter games is they finish earlier at night. As much as I love the current length of the Demon games, my interest in the other games fluctuates (I still would watch 5-7 games per week).

We really need Oliver to be an A-grader this year. We won't be a genuine chance if he gives us another C-grade season. We also hope that Max can continue to be a dominant force, Petracca comes back well from injury and Langford has a good debut season, but I think the rest of our midfield is much more predictable in terms of expected output.

Only when inside 50.

An issue with Fritsch is that he is really only valuable as the deepest forward. He is not a great kick inside 50, is one sided and lacks the effort when the ball hits the deck. This means that he can be a liability up the ground and we need to structure our forward line with him close to goal.

Adding another key position player to the side takes away from our running power and pressure. This is more important because most goals come from turnovers and then finding a free player inside 50, not from big pack marks by key forwards. JVR is a good player but I don't see him being at top 10 forward in the game. I think his best role is as a forward/ruck. Max is going to ruck 80-85% of game time. Fritsch is best used as our closest forward to goal. This makes it difficult to structure our forward line for the other key forwards, who need to be mobile. Petracca also can be used close to goal as a target. Jackson was 20 in 2021.

I like JVR in the ruck. He competes hard and is capable in the ruck contests. The answer to our forward line functioning is not more targets. It is more pressure, better entries and straight goalkicking. Having JVR in the ruck means we play another player (like Tholstrup or Sparrow) who provide pressure.

I like Melksham way more than Johnson and Jefferson at this stage.

I didn't include time on, but I adjusted the minutes of each player. (It is really the percentages that matter.) Oliver has historically played 80-90% game time. I am not sure if he will be able to do this as he ages but who knows what a full preseason could yield. I think Langford will be a centre square midfielder. Hopefully he can play well as a forward and his marking becomes an asset, but it is not easy to win the ball as a forward in the AFL as you are often outnumbered. I look at Ryley Sanders season this year, who showed AFL qualities as a midfielder but got squeezed out by the Dog's midfield depth and could not play another role. I think Rivers is an A-grade half back and a B-grade midfielder. His ball use was much better at half back this season because he had more time. He will develop his midfield game but I doubt he will ever reach Brownlow contention level. I am also not sure he offers a massive point of difference to Oliver, Petracca and Viney as a midfielder. I am not against the trial of Rivers in the middle, but my expectation is that we will get more from Rivers playing at half back.

Petty and TMac are one of the key decisions. The other is where Rivers plays. There is only 240 midfield minutes to go around and Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Pickett and Langford will take the bulk of them. Rivers could be a bit part midfielder, but that would mean he would also play as a forward, which he hasn't done before. I think it is unlikely that he plays as a midfielder/defender given how Goodwin likes to structure the side.

Salem can only kick 45m and is not as fast as Bowey. He has been a league average or below average player since 2022. Of Oliver, Viney and Petracca, only Petracca is an above average forward. Kossie needs minutes in the midfield, as will Langford. There is only 240 midfield minutes to go around and I think Rivers is a well above average defender.

This is close to my thoughts. I would have Rivers back, Sparrow in the forward/mids and Salem out. Lindsay also hopefully bashes the door down. I also don’t like not having Melksham in the side because he helps our forwards function better.

Christmas is a time to re-watch the 2021 grand final!

The key defenders typically play 85-90% game time, which means half a game where all three are on the ground. I don’t think it works if the coaches want to maintain a defensive 7, which they like for cohesion and because it makes rotations easier.

TMac really played CHB. I think we would be too slow and susceptible to the ground ball if we had May, Lever, TMac and Petty in the same side (particularly if conditions are not perfect). The Cats have played with more tall defenders than most sides in recent years but they don't have Max Gawn and play home games on a very narrow ground.

If we have no injuries, I think Rivers will need to play at half back. There are only 240 playing minutes for centre midfielders and Petracca (50), Oliver (60), Viney (50) and Kossie (40) will take the bulk of those. We like to play a defensive line up with 7 players and we haven’t historically had midfielders rotate to half back. So Rivers would need to play half forward for a quarter of the game if he were to also play as a midfielder. We also probably need to find a spot for Langford, who really looks most suited to be a central midfielder. I am not really a fan of Oliver or Viney playing too many minutes forward, as they don’t really have the pace or skill. I like the expected move of Windsor to half back. I see him taking Salem’s role in defence and being or loose man at around the ground stoppages. I think Salem is well past his prime and we need a more dynamic player in that role. I think a defence of May, Lever, TMac/Petty, Rivers, Bowey, McVee and Windsor would be fantastic so long as May can still be a top liner. The forward line is a bit more of an unknown. The midfielders will share about 80 minutes (out of 480 total forward minutes). JVR, Fritsch and Chandler will almost definitely play. And I think Turner is likely but he will need to compete with Melksham, Jefferson and Johnson. Petty may also go forward if we decide that TMac is too good to be left out (which I think he is). And as much as Melksham does not have the size of the other key forwards, I think our forward line functions better with him in it. And Fritsch is really best used as our deepest forward, so we need to consider him as a key forward and pick other tall forward that are mobile enough to play up the ground Langdon will take one wing, while Sparrow, Sharp, Woewodin, Brown, Langford, Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie, McAdam, Spargo and Lindsay are all in the mix to play in wing and/or forward/midfielder roles.

Can we take him under the flora son rule?