old55

I'll assume GC get pick 2 and we are serious about splitting pick 3 (2234). The talk is that GWS will trade 12 (1268) and 14 (1161) = (2429) which looks like equitable value. This is so they can take pick 3 before they have to match a bid on Tom Green who may be bid on as early as pick 4 (2034 with a 20% discount = 1627). The problem with this theory is that GWS doesn't have 2nd or 4th rounders and its next picks are 49 (287), 75 (0) and 85 (0). That leaves them a long way short of 1627 and would put them in a big deficit of 1340 in 2020 - equivalent to pick 11 (1329) - likely to be around their 1st pick next year. GWS will be desperate to trade in some mid range picks this year to make up the shortfall on Green. We could be in a strong position to bundle in some later picks for a good GWS player that we fancy.

Good post. I agree with trying Viney as a small forward - he could solve all our problems down there. He has legitimate speed off the mark, would provide genuine contested crumbing and ferocious defensive pressure. The knock on the idea is that his kicking is inaccurate and we've had a problem with goal conversion. But I could live with that - we've been living with ANB!!!

I think we will make the hard calls on the list and Goodwin has a good history here - Watts and Hogan trades.

Lynch whinging to umps again - biggest sook in football

What am I missing here? PM if necessary please.

He has successfully changed the way he played in the contest to alleviate the frequency of concussion events.

Bitterly disappointing to lose like that. But we looked like a team playing for the coach. North seldom lose down there and pumped Port last week. A 100pt loss was a possibility if we didn't turn up, but we clearly did. It has been a horrible year but that team is still playing united.

Strangely predictable that a call to use Max more effectively turned into "trade him" - Demonland strikes.

Max Gawn has had another great personal season and his performance is a highlight in an otherwise very disappointing year. He deserves great credit for his preparation, the work on his game and his consistent effort from week to week. He is the premier tap ruckman. No doubt Max has a great personality and is a great leader around the club - he will probably be co-captain next year. Who killed Bambi? The problem is I think having Max Gawn play this way is a big part of our problems this year because he makes us too predictable. Last year this had the bonus of surprise when Oliver, Brayshaw and Harmes all made significant improvement, this year it's a liability. I've never rated tap outs and have mixed views about taps to advantage - both the lynch pins of Max's game. A contest in the ruck is vital because one-off matches with tap outs to advantage are very damaging, but consistent tap outs to advantage are very predictable and the opposition simply sweats on our first possession and tackles our inside midfield. No surprise that we are 17th for tackle differential - that's the key tactic applied against our contest based game. I rate around the ground marking and providing a marking target much more highly and I think this is where Max provides us with the most value currently. But his kicking remains a liability and this is an issue when he drifts forward. Quite frankly Grundy is a far more valuable player because he is an extra mid-fielder, can kick and can ruck and mark nearly as well as Max. There's no way we would even consider trading Max but we need to give some thought to about how to use him effectively next year.

I'd swim down there if I was guaranteed to see Lewis hit Cunnington.

Preuss is an adequate 1st ruck at AFL level, he was good against Carlton and Kreuzer in his one opportunity at it this year. He's hopeless as a forward/ruck option and is unlikely to improve.

No wait, I forgot the talisman Lewis Jetta.

Well by your own definition the last 3 flag teams have had ZERO previous flag coaches and ZERO previous flag players so we'll be in good company. Accurate user name though.

I'm not in favour of Ellis, he has attractive attributes but he won't put his body on the line.

Got any proposals? It's a problem invented by you. I don't see the problem. I've reasoned above that he's worth pick 20.

But we wont have pick 30 we'll have around pick 20 and pick 40

I'm a fan of recruiting Langdon, he's the right age profile and he offers us pace, endurance and field position in metres gained. There's some concern about his kicking but I think this may be overblown. I think most here will rate Salem as one of our best field kicks and they stack up reasonably similarly in the data below: Average Disposals: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2019&rt=LA&st=DI Average metres gained: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2019&rt=LA&st=MG Need to leaven this with average turnovers though: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2019&rt=LA&st=TO Isaac Smith 74th for disposals, 17th for metres gained, but 10th for turnovers Brad Hill 51st for disposals, 11th for metres gained, 22nd for turnovers Ed Langdon 54th for disposals, 39th for metres gained, 78th for turnovers Salem 50th for disposals, 34th for metres gained, 76th for turnovers - very similar numbers to Langdon I like Isaac Smith and Brad Hill too but Smith is a lot older (30yo) and based on these number turns it over a surprising amount. Brad Hill (26yo) will be a lot more expensive in trade and salary than Langdon (23yo) and he too turns it over a surprising amount. I'd be happy to add any of those three, but those numbers make Langdon look attractive.

I think Hibberd, Melksham and Langdon offered similar levels of quality when they joined us. Or in Langdon's case when he joins us. Hibberd was 27, Melksham was 25 and Langdon is 23. Therefore that's the order of increasing cost because you get the quality for longer and that's what happened with Hibberd and Melksham. Hibberd is starting to look near the end. So paying more for Langdon makes sense - our current 2nd rounder.

Jones, Viney, Jetta and Gawn are the four in the leadership group this year. Jones wont be captain next year or in the leadership group, he'll be concentrating on making the 22. IMO it will be Viney and Gawn next year, with Jetta concentrating on getting fit to play. Hopefully Viney can have an injury free run and play to his capabilities. They might add TMac and/or Lever to the leadership group.

Coaches' votes in the past two rounds https://www.aflcoaches.com.au/awards/the-aflca-champion-player-of-the-year-award/leaderboard/2019/20190121

He's a capable 1st ruck - he was good against Carlton and Kreuzer, strong in the ruck contest and provided a good marking target down the line. From MFC pov he's good injury insurance for Max but they can't both play together because neither has good forward craft. The move from North is not so good for Preuss, particularly if Goldy is moving on this year - but we all knew that this time last year and were puzzled by his thinking.

I had the good fortune to meet Brendan on 3 occasions and hear his football views thanks to the great man @george_on_the_outer Brendan has an uncompromising philosophy on the lifestyle sacrifices, and the skills and attributes required to make it as an AFL footballer. It's a tough philosophy that I find it very difficult to argue against - I didn't notice you doing that there either. IMO he made an invaluable contribution to both Geelong's and the Dogs' premiership success. His message is very tough and it probably has a use-by-date and I'm a bit surprised he was at Geelong so long, but he was a younger man then. I've got no doubt his contribution will be key to the premiership success of our current group at Melbourne and I'm thankful for his input. I wish him all the best for the future.

mccartney-sees-bright-future-for-dees You were saying?

Yes all class there and very positive about the future.

I'd like to see Viney tried as a small forward. He has some real acceleration, could get to fall of the ball and win the contest, is a generally clean ball-handler, and would be a genuine tackling threat that would spark fear and panic in opposition defenders. There has been some resistance raised from a good judge because his kicking is not great and our inability to convert has really hurt us. This could well be the killer but he could not be worse than ANB.