old55

Yes I expect picks 3 and 8 to play games in year one and it's quite possible they could become best 22, particularly since it's unlikely they're talls. Look at Port this year. We've got a minimimum 5 picks and at least 2 of them are likely to be mature players who could also become best 22 or will surely be fringe or depth. That's likely 4 more players to factor into calculations. Following this year's horrible results we actually have 34 players on the current list with AFL experience and only 4 who are yet to play and of them I expect at least Jordon to debut next year. There's a lot to play out before this is settled.

I just went to see what other gems a poster with such a fully sikk user name had posted.

I agree Jack that there's inherent risk and it's probably greatest with Bennell because it's behaviour and injury. But to engage that risk is probably one third the price of engaging the lesser Martin risk (and lesser potential) I hope we'll take the well trodden path of simulating the Premiers and take a risk.

Prefer to take Bennell a cheaper risk with a higher potential

Last 8 flags ruckmen 2012 Mumford started at another club 2013 Max Bailey home grown Hawthorn dud 2014-15 McEvoy started at another club 2016 Jordan Roughead now at another club and no longer a ruckman 2017 and 19 Nankervis started at another club 2018 Lycett now at another club It's an uninspiring list.

And when Impey is back? Box Hill?

How about we wait until the 2020 list is complete before trying this?

How about 8 for 10 and 22 from Freo with a promise to bid Green at 3 which takes out GWS pick 6. Freo then have 7 and 8 and only have to worry about Adelaide and Sydney bidding on Henry - pretty safe I think. Gives us 3, 10 and 22 - means we basically got Langdon for free.

Salem > Hibberd now.

Hibberd looks finished to many of us. He's near the end anyway so he is who would be replaced, not Salem.

Does Frost get in this 22? Patton presumably replaces O'Brien or Lewis. Best 22 in 2019 if everyone was available B: Jack Scrimshaw, James Frawley, Ben Stratton HB: Blake Hardwick, James Sicily, Jarman Impey ? Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Ricky Henderson HF: Chad Wingard, Tim O'Brien, Jack Gunston F: Paul Puopolo, Mitch Lewis, Luke Breust Foll: Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O'Meara, James Worpel I/C: Shaun Burgoyne, Tom Scully, Liam Shiels, Jon Ceglar

Some of the good in that thread was rating Worpel much higher than he went.

A cautionary tale on Draft prognostications. There's the good, the bad and the ugly in here:

Definite NO. Casey needs one on their list, even though it probably means they play top heavy with Preuss, their ruck and Bradtke all in the team together.

It's very unlikely that our overall fortunes in 2020 are going to be dictated by who we pick at 3. When was the last time even the Rising Star winner was decisive in a team's season outcome? I'm tipping almost never - maybe Joel Selwood in 2007.

I predict that Clarkson's top up strategy will fail, he won't win another flag at Hawthorn and he won't be coaching there in 2023 after the end of his current contract. I'll even double down and predict that Goodwin will coach MFC to a flag. Bookmark it.

We're restricted in trade picks because we traded our 2020 1st already and that means we can't trade any other 2020 picks (I incorrectly suggested a trade involving them earlier). Right now the only picks we can trade are 3 and 8. Impossible to see Carlton coming up with something attractive to interest us. I'm not totally against 3 for 6 and 2020 1st with GWS because it would put our other 2020 picks back in trade play now and I think the talk of 2020 picks slipping back is exaggerated.

43 for our 2020 3rd thanks

For the record based on the info available I'm sticking with my guess that the target is Gunston. Only other and less likely alternative is Jack Riewoldt IMO.

Yes they can but the discussed scenario includes losing their 2020 1st rounder to us so they'd be down to later picks which would wipe out their 2020 draft. If they have academy players then they'd be in trouble paying for them.

I agree we'd like more but tell me how they'll match a bid for Green at say pick 5. What picks will they use? I think 40 needs to be one of them.

GWS can't give us more latet picks this year because they'll need them all to match the Green bid. It has to be 6 + player which has to happen today or 6 + 2020 1st which could happen any time up until pick 3 is due on draft night.

If you trade your future first rounder you have to retain picks in the other rounds (we currently hold Hawks 2020 2nd round). You can trade any or all of future 2nd round on, as long as you retain a 1st round. This is to stop desperate clubs selling the future farm.

Yeah well we can't trade any other 2020 picks now we've traded our 1st rounder so you stumbled at the first hurdle. More detention for you.