old55

Number please

Is he the guy?

The long odds are always a massive distortion of the real chances: GC: 251-1 for the flag - play next season 251 times and there's still no way GC win the flag, it's really something like 251,000-1. Same goes for GCs top 8 and top 4 chances, likewise for Carlton for all 3.

Highlights package = grain of salt. But agree that looks impressive - clean ball winning capability, genuine easy break away pace, great agility, good team oriented play - blocking and running on to assist, nice kicking skills, good game sense playing on from free kicks. There's some nice highlights there: afterburners at 1:24, contest at 1:30, stood up in the tackle at 2:40, agility at 3:05. A bit of the Daniel Rioli there. I'm a buyer of what he's selling.

Absolute no brainer - you've seen finals wins. GF option is a must.

Now THAT is dedication!

I'm not sure where you were at the end of this season maybe in a coma? Sam Weideman came in when Hogan went out and kicked 8 goals in 5 games, and goals in every game - all against high quality opposition, 3 of them finals matches. That translates to 35 goals across 22 games. There's a reasonable expectation that with another pre-season Weed will be even better next year.

Yeah "once in a generation" key forward is pick 2. How good must Walsh be?

The BS spouted in these reviews goes on: Lukosius: "The key forward is a ‘once in a generation’ prospect and is one of the best player we’ve seen in the Under 18 system for a long time." How long is a generation? Has this guy ever seen Buddy Franklin or Nick Riewoldt? i'm dubious about "super draft" prognostication, I've seen it all before.

I thought Isaac Quaynor was bound to Collingwood Academy and they would match a bid at 14?

Now the Swans and Tippett doing similar: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/swans-reach-rookie-list-deal-with-tippett-20181109-p50ezm.html

Who is the most recent MFC player to play in long sleeves?

Missing the finals is a failure now but even then there could be injury reasons for that. So making finals is a pass. Winning finals is a reasonable expectation, top 4 a good result - last year was really ahead of expectations. Flag is definitely possible and that's a great position to be in.

Sounds dedicated. I'm not sure I'd draft him, it would be hard to accommodate him culturally. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/miles-ahead-smith-s-discipline-sets-him-apart-20181107-p50elp.html

inb4 "mentally weak"

Some clubs have selected DFAs. It's a legitimate pathway to get delisted players to clubs ahead of the draft and doesn't impede or cost anything. I think if you pick up a DFA they go onto your Senior List, if DFAs aren't picked up in this period their prospects in the ND are grim but they may be selected in the RD.

Were you feeling it last year? Did you expect our first two picks to play the vast majority of games?

Makes me doubtful about your extensive draft prognostications ... Frost ahead of OMac? Hannan ahead of Vanders and Spargo? Garlett in at all? In: OMac, Vanders, Spargo Out: Frost, Hannan, Garlett I think that we may start with the Preuss experiment but it won't last long. Probably in time for Lever to return.

Yes agree with this - the vee starting at where ANB's armpits intersect the sleeve like on Robbie's jumper would be an improvement IMO. But keeping the current deeper vee shape.

Irrationally pessimistic outlook based on last year's haul - Spargo, Fritsch and Petty are all very exciting prospects and Baker could go either way. I have expectations of some Taylor magic again.

One implication of the above is that you have to go into points deficit the following year if you can't match with list vacancy picks from this year and that devalues your next year picks which is highly undesirable. Pick points go to zero at pick 74. An interesting scenario is if a team bids on Bedford at pick 63 just after we use 62. Pick 63 is 112 points and pick 91 is worth nothing so we'd have to go into 2019 points deficit. We don't want that to happen so I think that means if we want Bedford we have to take him at 62. That sounds fine to me but could get tricky in other similar scenarios.

Yes I believe that's correct Jack, we get a 20% discount on the points at the pick he's selected. And you also may get "change" from the picks we use. One important recent change is that you can only use picks that correspond to list vacancies byou have. This stops clubs using 7 picks in the 40s to match a 1st rounder when they only have 3 list vacancies. If we do use say 54 and 62 on Bedford and want to fill all 6 spots we'd have 2 picks after 91.

I don't think it's mandatory to fill the rookie list to make it to 44. The new pre-season signing period and mid season draft require vacant rookie positions.

All media seems to list the following 5 draft picks for us but we've actually got 6 primary list vacancies so we have another live pick in round 6 after 91 if we want go to the maximum of 40 on the list. Who knows what number it will actually be after all the Academy, F/S and other clubs fill their list vacancies and don't use late picks. Alternatively if we go to the minimum of 38 then 62 or whatever it becomes will be our last pick. http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-11-05/returning-to-the-track Draft picks: 23, 28, 54, 62, 91