Jjrogan

I wouldnt blame him, but id blame the club immensely! A 22yr old AFL-grade midfielder who wins his own footy, uses it very well, is fit/healthy and who's had 360 and 445 possession in his first 2 years. For all the hyperbole Adam "what's my strengths again" Cerra gets, JJ is a demonstrably better footballer. Whatever the tough decisions are here, they need to get it done. He's got a 200 game career ahead of him for someone.

Watching the replay of last week's game it was incredibly evident how fit some of our players are. Petracca was still chasing like a maniac. JJ was getting from contest to contest, Langdon, Spargo, May etc all getting to the fall of the ball first, tackling with intensity, making leads/space. Playing against a half wafl side against the fittest team in the afl, there is simply no way the last quarter and a half shouldnt be a slaughter. Its men against boys at that point.

I think its about player management this week. May and Lever both played 100 percent of game time on the weekend. Doubt that happens again after a 4 hour trip, so Petty will play back this week I think. Bbb should rest, so TMac has to come in as the ruck chop out/key forward. For the rest of the year I think it's either or with these 2. Toss a coin. Melksham also doesnt need to be on that plane, so Kozzie in for Melksham. Take your pick who wears the sub vest - hibberd, jj, sparrow. Id be taking Viney off at half time anyway. (unless they are trying to get him fully match fit). Out : Brown, Melksham In : Tmac, Kozzie.

Thats an amazing effort by the Bulldogs to win that game playing with Rory Lobb.

So they should, he is the future for mfc and he'll be better for the run whatever happens. The big leagues for a forward can sometimes be "better". Quicker ball movement, bigger grounds, better structures. Personally, I believe the key metric of any forward is taking marks. Dont care if they are contested or uncontested for now. If he averages 4 to 5 marks per game this season, we have something.

Be bold please. I hope they start him out of the goal square. Show him, the team and the competition you have confidence in him. Starting him on the bench is weak sauce.

I reckon you are dead on here. We got away with it against the Doggies. Lions have a different set of weapons up forward and sliced us up. The silver lining is it did in fact happen. Coaches and players will watch the tapes and you'd hope wont let it happen again so irresponsibly against the Swans. As an aside no wonder midfielders win Brownlows these days. Most of them run around unchecked post stoppage. Funny how its harder to do well when you have an opponent eh.

Exactly. Hes barely played 4 quarters in his life. He's a cameo tall player with below average marking skills and getting paid 800,000 a year for 6 years plus. Be happy for him. And for us to get rid of him at his stocks high.

Imo, back up ruckman to Grundy should be an experienced player who is an excellent one on one competitor, who is in form, and damages our structures the least. Why cant Tomo do it. Apart from being a liability in the back half, Tmac in the ruck throws our forward patterns out of kilter. Rob Casey to pay Paul, not Peter.

The blinkers on Oliver around here is simply next level. He was putrid at times. Dude doesnt even bother trying to kick a drop punt at times. Lol. Yea nah free pass.

Its tough when you lose the number 1 tap ruckman and an i50 contested marking beast and the competitions best down the line target and an intercept defender and your captain in the first few minutes. That's 5 players you have to cover. Take a look at the replay of that last 8 minutes in the 1st and tell me Max wouldnt have featured in every one of those scenarios. After quarter time we regouped with our structure but still got belted in contested clearances from stoppages so always playing catch up. That Ashcroft kid can play jeepers.

Hawkins plays for free more or less this year. Under 300k was speculated. If true, he's the reason why Geelong seems to have so much cap space

I like Milkshake as the Sub. The pace and heat is off late third and last. His pressure or lack thereof is not as much as a factor and the ground is bigger with tired players so he can hit open targets (such as goals from 60m out). He gets 5 to 7 touches in a last quarter, it will lead to points.

I would be shocked if McVee gets dropped. Hes gone from an unknown to playing rd 1 in a top 2 side in a heartbeat because the coaches know he's something special. Before his baulk on Libba there was a contest on the wing where we have a 2 on 1. He does the sums in his head and subtly runs in front of naughton to block his line of sight to the ball (and not to give away a free kick). Then releases just when Petty picks up knowing he is the option forward of the ball. It was all just so smooth. Also he has great 3 step acceleration and he hits targets. This kid is something special. Give him the role on Cameron to start, lets see his ceiling.

Anyone else pinch themselves when brodie grundy does brodie grundy things? Opposition teams have no chance frankly if these ruckmen are fit. How good.

Lobb and Darcy are average to below average forwards. Juh is athletic so can have a purple patch. But its not Brown Bradshaw and Lynch out there. Naughton is the worry. He is a freak, can pull them down from anywhere regardless of 'delivery' or midfield pressure. He doesnt goes nuts on us for 4 quarters cause May has his number. I'm not sure any of the others do. Id def want someone with experience on him Petty or Tmac.

They have a 5 time all Australian basically playing for free. Maybe when he retires.

Every year the bookies have it severely wrong on a team and this year it might be Richmond. Last year they played hawks, carlton port, essendon, west coast twice. This was 9 of their 13 wins. As a team on decline (after a great dynasty) they were still good enough to beat the younger sides. But against the top teams they dont have all the bases covered. 1 year on, harder draw, weaker sides are stronger and sorry not enough A-listers coming through. They may squeeze into the eight but they are 1 or 2 injuries away from 7-15.

Spargo's attempt at goal in the 2nd quarter with about 6 minutes left hit the post. Chandler was pushed in the back in the goal square. Gawn followed up took the advantage and kicked the goal. Commentators were day dreaming at the time so it wasnt clearly broadcast.

I cannot fathom how a trade gets done with Port. Their first pick is in the 30s. There's only one player on their list you'd consider trading for and there's a snowflake's chance in h*ll they'll trade him. The rest of their kids wouldnt even get a game in our 1sts. At that point you may as well play hard ball and let him walk to the PSD. Adelaide has a top 5 pick but given they just lifted Rankine, its unlikely. Freo, no draft currency. West Coast have a top 5 pick, but not sure that's their most pressing need right now. Leaving this year is going to be a major stress point for everyone, primarily him. He should re-sign for another 2 years, bank a few more finals and then reassess the landscape. His value wont have receded.

Simple back of envelope probabilities which is all you can really model in this type of stuff imo. Assume that games less than 2 goals are 50/50 propositions. (Sure, if one is clearly more biased to win this isnt exactly true but its going to be darn close here. Collingwoods non-close games percentage was around 100 anyway) You can apply the binomial distribution... equivalent of saying toss a coin 12 times (12 regular season games) and getting 11 heads (a win) 11 wins - 0.29 percent 10 wins - 1.6 percent For their 11-3 overall record it would be 2.2 percent. Ok, not hugely freakish but still its a once in a lifetime season more or less. I think Frano still owns the crown.

Collingwood had a percentage of 104 last year. Could easily miss in 2023 with a harder draw. Heck, take 2 goals off them last year, they would have missed and no one would be talking top 8 this year. It was a statistically freakish season. Caveat being that teenager who can play a bit will be even better. Sydney, though well coached, got pants-ed in a GF. The recent history on this isnt good. Hard to see but in hindsight it may be yea, they lost it mentally.

Hard to see them missing top 4. Much like mfc, the rest of the competition will be trying to work out how to beat them. Last year, they were 12-0 with a percentage of 200 in games they won uncontested posessions. They had a percentage of 114 and lost 4 games when they lost uncontested. Makes sense, list comprised of elite contested ball winners/markers and aging midfielders. Reckon to beat them have to be daring. Spread, run, carry, handball. Collingwood, basically. Er, not us.

If Jackson doesnt kick 40 plus goals they will be be mid table. Shades of MFC in 2019. Lost a key forward and even though have a young midfield group, they wont find the goals to save themselves. Simply not enough marking talent forward of centre. Ding Dong seems to think Jackson was played out of position and he should be up forward. If he's right (or Taberner has one out of the box) they'll be ok. But if he's wrong, a team that couldn't kick 10 goals in a game nine times last year aint going to be lighting up score boards. 7th to 12th and top 10 draft pick here we come.

In one's darkest moments, we can always close our eyes and think of Essendon's list and generational performance. Thank the maker.