Everything posted by Jjrogan
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PREGAME: Rd 11 vs Sydney
The knock on effects from having our 3rd best 'forward' ruck instead of Petty or JVR was pretty big yesterday. It meant Petracca wasnt needed as much as forward (94 %cba). When Petracca plays full games in the middle we can (and do) beat anyone. As an aside, has there ever been a full forward that likes a goal less than Petty. He is always looking to dish off, even after that great grab in the last. He needs to embrace he is a goal kicker and thats up to the FD to encourage him to be a little selfish. Go back, kick the goal. Its okay to miss, but the hunger to hit the scoreboard needs to be there if you're playing forward
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POSTGAME: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
Sharp can barely start. Its rare you see a player cough the ball up as often as he does in traffic. Spargo gets a game cause theres no one else at Casey who you can trust quite simply. I dont watch enough of the Magoos but id consider giving Sestan a run if he can kick over 40 metres.
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Stats File - 2025 edition
Most would agree that's as balanced of a team we've had out on the field all year... The most interesting stat for mine is Petracca 94 percent of cba. Huge bump. Clearly a statement. He fumbled a bit but he was fantastic and looked incredibly fiit Oliver high. Pickett high. Rivers got lots of looks and was effective (player rating BOG). We are just a chance to beat anyone with cp5 being in the centre. So how does JV make this centre square balance better. Maybe Oliver should get the tagging role again, it makes him accountable and he's actually really good at it. He didnt give a free kick away and totally blanked Neale's effectiveness. Oliver had 5. Neale had 4. He kept lNewcombe to 19 touches last week. Who will get Heeney. Warner is tough to tag, he's a bit like Trac.
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We're Not Dead Yet - The 2025 Season
Ya, Melksham is so good with ball in hand, a rose amongst the thorns. Even his left foot kick to Langdon in the last was incredible. Not to be negative, as underrated as Melksham is, Windsor is way overrated as a kick. He was below average last year and his clangers per disposal is too high for a backman. He reminds me of a golfer who plays a great shot with a great swing and everyone thinks wow, this kid is good but im reality his short game and mid iron game is nowhere near the level to be considered elite. . (And he shanks it way too often). Its hard to tell how he did defensively without being there. Id be interested in what others think. Get him out of the backline its not his position, although it does free Rivers up etc etc. He's got heaps of talent, we dont want his career stalling.
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Harley Reid
Kid averages 18 touches a game given all the latitude in the world. 1 in every 3 possessions is a clanger. Worst in the league. Just as bad last year so theres data here folks. Only reason to be into him is to bid him up for some other sucker to overpay him. How hes valued at 2mln is beyond me.
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PREGAME: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
someone is paying attention. As named we have at least 2 premiership players on every line and another on the bench. I was pessimistic at the start of the week but I agree if we're not competitive this week, it doesnt look good for the next month.
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We're Not Dead Yet - The 2025 Season
Over his last 100 games (injured, half games, undefined role) melksham averages a goal assist a game. Over a career, that would rank him the BEST in the modern era. People focus on his shortcomings far too much and dont appreciate how elite (all time elite) he actually is at creating goals. We could do with a bit of that I reckon.
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Luke Jackson back to Victoria?
The issue is not whether rucks are valuable or invaluable but are you (WE) willing to devote more percentage of your cap to a ruck. The output gap between 2nd best ruckman and 16tth best is actually really small. The wage gap is huge. Apart from flynn/williams who is the worst ruckman in the league. Couldnt tell you myself. Without Max the gap will be even smaller. Taking Jackson would mean in a few years we will be paying our ruckman more as a percentage of cap than we do to Gawn. (He's criminally underpaid). Sure Jackson also doubles as a forward but id say the clubs that have enjoyed the most success over the past decade have underpaid their rucks for the output they get not overpaid (including us). Thats the way to do it. He is a fine player, but Jackson is too expensive for what he procduces week in week out imo. However, it wouldnt be a list killing move like tdk at 1.6 would be.
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TRAINING: Monday 12th May 2025
Its happened 12 times in the past month. Grok is cooked. Having access to the data set is a pretty important part of AI analysis! 😛
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TRAINING: Monday 12th May 2025
Im very curious. When they do these goal kicking drills, do they have a coach or assistant next to them with an ipad or pen/ paper and recording distance, accuracy, angle. In the NFL, qb throws during practice are measured for rotation, accuracy, distamce etc. It builds a database and then when tweaks are made to routine or technique the outputs can be compared and analysed. I'm sure the same happens for golf swings or putting. Or is it, as i assume, a bunch of guys having random set shots from different positions and going yea i kicked around 25 out of 40 today. Not bad, time for the sheds. Id love to be wrong, and that someone is actually tracking kick for kick and measuring if we are getting better in practice (which is the first step in getting better in game). It cost absolutely SFA to have an assistant watching and recording this stuff. It also builds a database knowing which guys are good from which pockets, angles and distance which can help in a game day situation.
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PREGAME: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
Lions are a high kick high mark team but gets lots of inside 50s also, so its not like they chip it around. Just so great in transition, lead the league in scores from d50. I despise Zorko intensely but hes an absolute weapon. He needs to be tagged. Coaches giving him 20 uncontested possessions is utter madnesss. Collingwood kept him quiet and they got flogged. Problem is they are stacked through the middle also now after being gifted father sons. Must be nice as a recruiter to not have to do anything. Cannot see us getting within 8 goals. It would be so random to win this but i guess thats afl these days. As for changes. Who really gives a rats anymore. Its not like it will make a diffierence. Goodwin is a decent coach imo but he has no idea about where to play his players. So happy we have langford and lindsay otherwise the depression would be next level!
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POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
Totally winnable but with all due respect these are not the key stays to win. Inside 50s we lost and marks inside 50 we lost 14 to 8. Turn that around and we win that game by 30 points. Spoiler alert we wont. :(
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POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
Here here. Not to be overly negative but said 3 weeks ago he is a liability for our midfield. He simply doesnt run to the right spots. Crashing packs only takes you so far and not in this game plan. He played his junior football as a backman, it wont be foreign to him. Turner is still only 20 odd games in. Could be anything. Even im the last you could see him wanting to take the game on.
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PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
I think this is a bit harsh on OD. Everyone does see the game different. Whilst Melksham body is not elite mobile, i see his point. He is still very decent in terms of changing direction off a step and then executing either side as last week showed. No way Jefferson can do that, but then not many players can. Ill take the other side of JVR being quick. It might be our shocking game plan, but there's a reason he's found it hard to get separation and plays back shoulder a lot. Fwiw im ok with the selections. . Hawks play small so we are going to try and beat them another way. Eventually we have to find out if our kpfs are any good at taking us to top 4 level. May as well start the learnings and yearnings now.
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PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
They are up there 3rd with 10 pg but the gap to us 8pg is not very large. Yes its their quick agile forwards that find space very well. Dont feel like thats in our kit bag to defend week in week out but lets see.
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PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
Heck why not. We've only been playing 1 or 2 good quarters even in our wins. The talent and match winning ability is still there we just need to play 3 quarters, let alone 4. Hawks do nothing bad but don't do anything particularly well, they are ranked 4 to 8 in most areas, except one. They are by far league leading marks inside 50 (16 pg) we are 17th (9 pg 🤮). Its not just the big guys as Hardwick, Macdonald and Watson all have had more marks inside 50 than all but one of our players (Fritsch with 12). Throw in Bruest and they have a very clever and agile forward line. Wouldnt label our defenders clever or agile apart from #4. I can almost read the game day posts that some so and so 30 yr old defender is cooked. Up forward must play front of Sicily. He plays front spot so well. Melksham would have been great.
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PREGAME: Rd 08 vs West Coast
Will be fascinating to see how we handle Waterman and a huge insight into life without May. I really like Turner. People forget he has only played 20 games. Over that time his stat line roughly reads 80 marks 160 touches 20 goals. That's playing half games, in and out of the side, injuries, thrown around the line up. But its more or less jvrs first season (and a better stat line than say Josh Treacy's first 20 games). He's a pretty good forward that plays in front and knows when to double back and lead up. (Jvr instead runs to where the ball is going, not where it should be going imo). But id love to see Turner play on Waterman and win that duel, it would be a huge positive for us for the next few years. If Waterman gives him a bath, so be it but id love to see if Turner is the player I think he could be.
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PREGAME: Rd 08 vs West Coast
If only off field talk and home truths made a difference we wouldnt have started 0-5. Good on the leadership group for talking it up a notch but on field there are a generational rabble . Half their midfield cant cover the ground or win a clearance (especially the chosen one), their coach has no idea and their captain is meeting other clubs. Of course no game is taken lightlly but if we cant win comfortably we are not serious. But i think we are. 50 points+
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PREGAME: Rd 08 vs West Coast
Spargo, pretty remarklable he's an AFL predominant forward who's kicked just 1 goal and 4 goal assists in his last 11 games. Average of just 3 score involvements. Its not like his tackle or pressure numbers are off the charts to compensate. His ceiling is just too low for that position but his floor is def higher than anything else we have, therein lies the problem really.
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PREGAME: Rd 08 vs West Coast
West Coast are rubbish sorry. They've just recorded the worst 6 game stretch clearance numbers in the modern era, twice as bad as any other team. Also twice as bad as being scored from stoppage as any other team. Our mids, yes. been struggling from stoppage all season, but if they cant beat the worsr team over the last 25 years in this 'space' you can forget the 'learnings'. We are nowhere near that bad and should bully them and have plenty of first use. Im not certain Mcqualter knows what he's doing with personnel and game plan at all. The only concern is Jake Waterman. Harley got his usual highlight reel hype at last years match, but it was Waterman's 13 marks (5 contested, 6 inside 50) who was unstoppable He's one of the few forwards that can beat May at his own game. We need Turner to be ready. Allen is no mug either and due to have a game.
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Noah Balta - Sentencing
And that coward was jailed. Was that a deterrent here? Do we keep locking up people until it stops? Surely not, there has to be level of degrees. Blood bayers was a strong term, I didnt mean it directly at anyone on the forum. The question is why do people want him jailed? For being a threat to society? (Dont think anyone is suggesting this). Do folks want to lock him up as a punishment (I do agree his fine was utterly pathetic, should have be an extra zero). Or is it as a deterrent? Ok, i get that argument but then we have to be ready to extend it out to 10,000s of assaults nationally. Singling him out is the opposite of fair justice according to me.
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Noah Balta - Sentencing
Serious question. Would you jail connor nash? (The victim im the Balta case didnt get a concussion and had a 3 cm stitch i believe as a point of comparison). Do the rules of the land stop once you cross the white land. Should Miers have reasonably expected that contact? What about off the ball incident. Genuinely asking how we think about the difference in crime and punishment. I dunno.
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Noah Balta - Sentencing
Yes seriously. I'm not condoning what he did. It was a dangerous and thug attack. As you say, there is no place for this. But if you jail every first time offender for a punch or an assault you'd be needing a lot more cells. The sentence is pretty consistent here.
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Noah Balta - Sentencing
How do you feel he was lucky to avoid jail? According to the nsw bureau of crime brief (2011), first time assault offenders on an assault occasioning actual bodily harm were jailed 6.9 percent of the time. He would have been un lucky to get jail. Maybe a suspended sentence may have been more appropriate being a public case (whatever that means) but i doubt even that would appease the blood bayers.
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Time to go Goody?
Exactly. Most of our goals, in the first half in particular, were the result of individual brilliance rather than great ball use. Long shots sailing through, great snaps or goals from the goal square. Importantly, as you said, it wasnt to an outnumber which gave us a chance. That was pleasing. 7 marks from 50+ inside 50s is bog ordinary. Almost every premier (since ever) has been in the top 4 of the league average, usually north of 12. Sometime you win the way we won on the weekend, amazing conversion, good team pressure and some individuals match winners. But as a system, forward entries were really only marginally better than the rest of the year. It was a small step in the right direction though, until we can get 10-12 marks a week inside 50 regularly, we wont be the real deal.