The plot thickens

[sylvinator 96]

Everyone has been speaking about our Round 22 clash with Carlton as being a tanking farce. However, the truth is that the result of the match makes little difference to our draft position outcome. Round 22 is really only important to Carlton because they gain Pick 1 if they lose.

If Melbourne win (and don't overtake the Blues on percentage):

Carlton PP 1, Richmond 2, Melbourne 3, Carlton 4 ... Richmond PP 18, Melbourne PP 19, Richmond 20, Melbourne 21 Carlton 22

If Carlton win:

Richmond 1, Melbourne 2, Carlton 3 ... Richmond PP 17, Melbourne PP 18, Richmond 19, Melbourne 20, Carlton 21.

So the truth is that round 22 does not have such a big impact on his.

People must take into consideration that this year's draft has Kreuzer ... daylight ... and then about six players who could all go Pick 2. So Pick2 or Pick 3 does not make a huge difference. Morton, Masten, Grimes, Henderson, McEvoy, Ebert, Cotchin (despite his poor championships) will all be ripper picks for us whoever we pick.

My point is: If you are interested in Melbourne's draft position at year's end, you shouldn't really worry too much about whether Carlton wins another game, but start hoping that Richmond wins another game. If they win again then they overtake us and we get Pick 1 Kruezer, and our ruck problems are fixed for the next 10 years.

[Whispering_Jack 30,575]

The plot might change dramatically however, if Melbourne wins another game before it plays Carlton. In that case,

If Melbourne win:

Carlton PP 1, Richmond 2, Carlton 3, Melbourne 4 ... Richmond PP 18, Richmond 19, Carlton 20, Melbourne 21 (next Melbourne pick 37)

If Carlton win:

Richmond 1, Melbourne 2, Carlton 3 ... Richmond PP 17, Melbourne PP 18, Richmond 19, Melbourne 20, Carlton 21

And then of course Carlton could also win before the final round and Richmond might overtake Melbourne before Round 22 ...

[Jarka 767]

First pick in the pre-season draft this year could be just as important as first pick in the November draft, there are still a couple of key players who haven't extended their contracts....

[Slartibartfast 17,518]

The plot might change dramatically however, if Melbourne wins another game before it plays Carlton. In that case,

If Melbourne win:

Carlton PP 1, Richmond 2, Carlton 3, Melbourne 4 ... Richmond PP 18, Richmond 19, Carlton 20, Melbourne 21 (next Melbourne pick 37)

If Carlton win:

Richmond 1, Melbourne 2, Carlton 3 ... Richmond PP 17, Melbourne PP 18, Richmond 19, Melbourne 20, Carlton 21

And then of course Carlton could also win before the final round and Richmond might overtake Melbourne before Round 22 ...

How many games do we have to win to miss the 2nd round priority? Last year it was more than 5. That means we can still win 2 and get it. If it's 4 then Jack is spot on.

[Sydney Pennski 299]

How many games do we have to win to miss the 2nd round priority? Last year it was more than 5. That means we can still win 2 and get it. If it's 4 then Jack is spot on.

Jack is spot on -

from the AFL's webpage: http://www.afl.com.au/Season2007/NABAFLRis...82/Default.aspx

also http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/com...5E19771,00.html and

http://www.abc.net.au/sport/content/200511/s1509486.htm

"Under the new laws, a team finishing with four or fewer wins will get an extra pick, but only after the first round of the draft.

However, if a team finishes with four or fewer wins for two consecutive years, it will gain a pick at the start of the draft as is the case under the current system."

[Gorgoroth 13,016]

Don't write off Melbourne losing all and richmond winning 1 more, could happen.

[sylvinator 96]

Don't write off Melbourne losing all and richmond winning 1 more, could happen.

ill be watching Richmond vs Essendon very closely. toigs a real chance

[Gorgoroth 13,016]

Damn right they are, if they play the same forward line they will kill essendon.

[Guest DemonSG]

Everyone has been speaking about our Round 22 clash with Carlton as being a tanking farce. However, the truth is that the result of the match makes little difference to our draft position outcome. Round 22 is really only important to Carlton because they gain Pick 1 if they lose.

If Melbourne win (and don't overtake the Blues on percentage):

Carlton PP 1, Richmond 2, Melbourne 3, Carlton 4 ... Richmond PP 18, Melbourne PP 19, Richmond 20, Melbourne 21 Carlton 22

If Carlton win:

Richmond 1, Melbourne 2, Carlton 3 ... Richmond PP 17, Melbourne PP 18, Richmond 19, Melbourne 20, Carlton 21.

So the truth is that round 22 does not have such a big impact on his.

People must take into consideration that this year's draft has Kreuzer ... daylight ... and then about six players who could all go Pick 2. So Pick2 or Pick 3 does not make a huge difference. Morton, Masten, Grimes, Henderson, McEvoy, Ebert, Cotchin (despite his poor championships) will all be ripper picks for us whoever we pick.

My point is: If you are interested in Melbourne's draft position at year's end, you shouldn't really worry too much about whether Carlton wins another game, but start hoping that Richmond wins another game. If they win again then they overtake us and we get Pick 1 Kruezer, and our ruck problems are fixed for the next 10 years.

Aside from the above DON'T forget ND's run and carry...