@WheeloRatings You are a legend

Many thanks. This is so good to look through

17 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Thanks mate, and no problem at all! I have updated the format of the Key Team Stats table to include Melbourne's average for 2025 and 2026 with 2026 bolded to hopefully assist readability. If this becomes too overwhelming, I could look at including the key season summary stats in a separate table.

Here is the updated table for round 1:

Stat	For	Against	Diff	2025	2026	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention	73.4	75.4	-2.0	70.5	73.4	71.3
Disposal Efficiency	74.5	77.9	-3.4	73.2	74.5	74.1
Kicking Efficiency	67.0	71.8	-4.8	67.8	67.0	67.9
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention	67.4	56.8	+10.6	46.2	67.4	48.0
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained	5809	6015	-206	5545.5	5808.9	5747.4
Kick Metres Gained / Kick	27.9	25.3	+2.7	26.2	27.9	26.3
Handball Metres Gained	231	10	+221	169.1	231.4	251.8
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	54.2	45.8	+8.4	51.4	54.2	50.0
Inside 50s	57	53	+4	52.8	57.0	54.7
Shots At Goal	36	33	+3	26.4	36.0	28.9
Scores / Inside 50	52.6	60.4	-7.7	45.1	52.6	48.3
Goals / Inside 50	31.6	28.3	+3.3	22.3	31.6	25.5
Marks Inside 50	19	20	-1	10.9	19.0	12.2
Transition
Chain To Score %	29.1	29.9	-0.8	21.5	29.1	23.6
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	27.0	28.9	-1.9	24.4	27.0	24.3
Defensive 50 To Score %	16.2	18.4	-2.2	9.7	16.2	10.8
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	35.5	36.9	-1.4	31.1	35.5	32.6
Defensive Half To Score %	19.4	23.1	-3.7	12.6	19.4	14.5
Contest
Contested Possessions	119	129	-10	135.2	119.0	127.0
Ground Ball Gets	79	87	-8	87.3	79.0	84.9
Post Clearance Contested Poss	75	74	+1	82.7	75.0	79.7
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	55	52	+3	56.7	55.0	55.4
Contested Marks	10	11	-1	10.5	10.0	8.4
Clearance
Total Clearances	36	41	-5	36.8	36.0	35.8
Centre Clearances	17	15	+2	12.8	17.0	14.1
Stoppage Clearances	19	26	-7	24.0	19.0	21.7
First Possessions	38	44	-6	42.3	38.0	38.4
First Possession To Clearance %	73.7	77.3	-3.6	72.3	73.7	75.2
Defense
Intercepts	53	55	-2	64.8	53.0	66.4
Intercept Marks	13	13	+0	16.3	13.0	13.2
Tackles	42	41	+1	57.2	42.0	52.8
Tackles Inside 50	5	2	+3	11.4	5.0	10.1
Def One On One Loss %	33.3	50.0	-16.7	27.9	33.3	26.5
Ruck
Ruck Contests	90	90	+0	92.2	90.0	86.5
Hitouts	44	25	+19	41.1	44.0	34.0
Hitouts To Advantage	10	8	+2	11.5	10.0	8.9
Equity Points
Pre Clearance	33.5	38.0	-4.6	33.3	33.5	33.9
Post Clearance	156.0	142.5	+13.5	115.9	156.0	128.7
Ball Winning	108.6	112.8	-4.2	112.5	108.6	111.1
Ball Use	81.7	68.9	+12.8	39.6	81.7	54.0

Thanks so much for this update. Makes really interesting reading. Standout is the metres gained from handballs compared to last year and the retention i50. One other suggestion on formatting would be to switch the 2026 and 2025 stats so the 2026 ones are right next to the other current stats and the 2025 ones come after just as a comparison if you want that.

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

That is very disappointing demon Dynasty, you are my third go to after joeboy and Demonland Votes, those stats helped me back up what I thought I was seeing at the games and making me reassess my thoughts on some players. Let’s hope there is a fix just around the corner. 👍😎

Yep that's pretty much what I used it for DZ. I'd compare to what i'd seen on the day or while watching the replay before casting my DL POTY votes.

Have to say after watching Sunday's game I reckon we'll be much more easy on the eye vs some of the recent years where we could barely get to 8 - 10 goals or so on many occasions.

That was a joy to watch. Much rather that style, even if we cough up a few gettable games playing that way.

Edited March 17Mar 17 by Demon Dynasty

Melbourne v Fremantle (Round 2, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260205

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	2026	2025	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention	66.7	73.6	-7.0	70.0	70.5	71.0
Disposal Efficiency	68.8	73.4	-4.6	71.7	73.2	73.8
Kicking Efficiency	64.0	66.1	-2.1	65.4	67.8	67.4
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention	44.9	51.3	-6.4	55.8	46.2	47.5
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained	5798	6197	-399	5803.5	5545.5	5760.5
Kick Metres Gained / Kick	26.1	27.7	-1.5	27.0	26.2	26.4
Handball Metres Gained	226	331	-105	228.6	169.1	241.2
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	49.0	51.0	-1.9	51.6	51.4	50.0
Inside 50s	56	58	-2	56.5	52.8	54.7
Shots At Goal	25	36	-11	30.5	26.4	28.3
Scores / Inside 50	35.7	56.9	-21.2	44.2	45.1	47.2
Goals / Inside 50	17.9	29.3	-11.5	24.8	22.3	25.0
Marks Inside 50	12	12	+0	15.5	10.9	11.6
Transition
Chain To Score %	16.7	28.0	-11.3	22.4	21.5	22.7
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	28.3	33.3	-5.1	27.7	24.4	23.5
Defensive 50 To Score %	15.2	15.6	-0.3	15.7	9.7	10.2
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	33.3	39.4	-6.1	34.3	31.1	31.9
Defensive Half To Score %	15.3	19.7	-4.4	17.2	12.6	13.9
Contest
Contested Possessions	124	143	-19	121.5	135.2	128.4
Ground Ball Gets	82	101	-19	80.5	87.3	85.7
Post Clearance Contested Poss	90	99	-9	82.5	82.7	81.2
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	70	76	-6	62.5	56.7	57.4
Contested Marks	10	9	+1	10.0	10.5	8.2
Clearance
Total Clearances	30	33	-3	33.0	36.8	35.8
Centre Clearances	15	12	+3	16.0	12.8	13.7
Stoppage Clearances	15	21	-6	17.0	24.0	22.1
First Possessions	27	43	-16	32.5	42.3	38.6
First Possession To Clearance %	77.8	67.4	+10.3	75.4	72.3	75.3
Defense
Intercepts	76	77	-1	64.5	64.8	68.2
Intercept Marks	24	13	+11	18.5	16.3	14.1
Tackles	55	45	+10	48.5	57.2	53.6
Tackles Inside 50	8	9	-1	6.5	11.4	10.4
Def One On One Loss %	33.3	0.0	+33.3	33.3	27.9	26.3
Ruck
Ruck Contests	77	77	+0	83.5	92.2	87.3
Hitouts	34	24	+10	39.0	41.1	34.1
Hitouts To Advantage	9	10	-1	9.5	11.5	9.6
Equity Points
Pre Clearance	29.6	31.8	-2.2	31.5	33.3	33.9
Post Clearance	113.8	163.6	-49.9	134.9	115.9	128.7
Ball Winning	118.9	119.4	-0.4	113.8	112.5	111.8
Ball Use	26.9	71.3	-44.4	54.3	39.6	52.9

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Equity is the WheeloRatings implementation of the AFL Player Ratings.

• Ball Winning: Equity points from winning possession of the ball.

• Ball Use: Equity points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG	Ball Win.	Ball Use
Max Gawn	6.7	3.9	6.5	3.8	20.8	84%	16.7	2.5
Kade Chandler	3.3	2.9	3.5	6.2	15.9	83%	6.7	7.9
Kysaiah Pickett	3.4	6.2	0.6	3.1	13.3	88%	6.2	4.2
Harry Sharp	0.1	6.3	1.4	5.4	13.2	74%	3.7	8.2
Ed Langdon	6.8	1.9	1.1	3.2	13.0	89%	9.3	0.7
Bayley Fritsch	4.4	3.5	−0.9	5.8	12.8	90%	7.1	6.0
Jai Culley	2.6	4.1	1.2	3.6	11.6	82%	6.4	2.2
Jack Steele	−0.2	5.4	5.3	1.1	11.6	72%	13.1	−4.1
Christian Salem	2.3	3.5	0.9	4.1	10.7	84%	6.3	0.3
Jake Lever	−0.3	4.7	1.4	2.6	8.5	93%	5.7	1.8
Tom Sparrow	0.9	0.4	3.5	3.8	8.5	71%	3.5	3.7
Xavier Lindsay	1.6	2.3	2.7	0.9	7.5	68%	2.4	1.9
Daniel Turner	5.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.6	30%	3.1	0.8
Changkuoth Jiath	0.2	1.4	1.1	2.1	4.7	75%	3.0	−0.5
Harvey Langford	0.4	−0.1	2.9	1.3	4.6	73%	3.7	−1.0
Trent Rivers	−1.5	2.0	−0.2	4.3	4.5	82%	4.1	0.2
Blake Howes	0.6	0.8	0.4	2.3	4.1	76%	1.9	0.7
Jacob van Rooyen	−0.2	4.5	0.9	−1.2	3.9	84%	4.2	3.4
Caleb Windsor	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.4	2.9	67%	4.1	−4.4
Brody Mihocek	−1.9	1.4	0.0	1.5	0.9	82%	1.1	−0.1
Koltyn Tholstrup	−3.2	0.4	2.4	0.6	0.2	80%	0.5	−0.8
Harrison Petty	−0.1	0.0	0.4	−1.0	−0.7	100%	4.6	−4.1
Latrelle Pickett	0.0	−1.5	−0.9	1.2	−1.2	70%	1.6	−2.6

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	2	6	-4
Loose Ball Get	14	16	-2
Contested Mark	2	5	-3
Ruck Hard Ball Get	1	1	0
Gather From Hitout	1	0	+1
Contested Knock On	1	1	0
Free For	1	2	-1
Total	22	31	-9
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	1	5	-4
Loose Ball Get	16	12	+4
Contested Mark	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	0	3	-3
Contested Knock On	2	0	+2
Free For	1	5	-4
Total	20	26	-6
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	11	20	-9
Loose Ball Get	59	56	+3
Contested Mark	10	9	+1
Contested Knock On	3	3	0
Free For	7	11	-4
Total	90	99	-9
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	3	5	-2
Loose Ball Get	9	20	-11
Ruck Hard Ball Get	4	7	-3
Gather From Hitout	9	10	-1
Contested Knock On	3	2	+1
Free For	6	0	+6
Total	34	44	-10

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	70.2	70	1%
Fremantle	113.4	118	99%	+43.2	+48	+4.8

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-
Overall
Melbourne	25	10.9 69	40.0%	70.2	−1.2
Fremantle	36	17.13 115	47.2%	110.4	+4.6
General Play
Melbourne	15	6.6 42	40.0%	38.6	+3.4
Fremantle	22	12.8 80	54.5%	58.4	+21.6
Set Position
Melbourne	10	4.3 27	40.0%	31.6	−4.6
Fremantle	14	5.5 35	35.7%	52.0	−17.0

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	175	174	+1
2	167	169	-2
3	175	161	+14
4	140	166	-26
Match	165	167	-2

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Steele	25	62	44.5
Kysaiah Pickett	20	51	50.5
Tom Sparrow	18	49	44.5
Caleb Windsor	20	46	47.0
Jai Culley	18	40	34.0
Xavier Lindsay	15	38	29.5
Koltyn Tholstrup	13	33	27.0
Kade Chandler	15	32	36.0
Changkuoth Jiath	16	29	26.0
Harry Sharp	13	24	25.0
Harvey Langford	8	22	22.5
Jake Lever	10	22	20.0
Harrison Petty	10	21	26.0
Ed Langdon	11	20	22.5
Trent Rivers	10	16	25.5
Christian Salem	7	15	20.0
Max Gawn	8	12	16.5
Latrelle Pickett	8	12	7.0
Daniel Turner	6	11	20.5
Brody Mihocek	2	8	11.5
Blake Howes	4	8	7.0
Jacob van Rooyen	3	6	9.0
Bayley Fritsch	4	6	8.0

Source: Herald Sun

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	31%	59%	53%	54%	49%	52%
Defensive	69%	41%	47%	46%	51%	48%
Region
Forward 50	12%	29%	21%	26%	22%	24%
Attacking Midfield	18%	29%	32%	27%	27%	28%
Defensive Midfield	26%	21%	28%	20%	24%	23%
Defensive 50	43%	21%	19%	26%	27%	25%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	xChainScore	Score	Diff
Melbourne
Kick-in	5.6	3.1 19	+13.4
Centre Bounce	14.0	0.0 0	-14.0
Stoppage (Other)	15.7	1.4 10	-5.7
Turnover	52.1	6.5 41	-11.1
Opposition
Kick-in	3.5	1.2 8	+4.5
Centre Bounce	11.2	1.1 7	-4.2
Stoppage (Other)	17.6	4.5 29	+11.4
Turnover	56.6	11.8 74	+17.4
Diff
Kick-in	+2.1	+11
Centre Bounce	+2.8	-7
Stoppage (Other)	-2.0	-19
Turnover	-4.5	-33

xChainScore: expected points scored based on the origin of a team’s chains, including clearances, turnovers, and kick-ins.

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	19	16.0	8	7.0
Centre Bounce	0	7.5	7	11.0
Stoppage (Other)	10	16.0	29	29.5
Turnover	41	55.5	74	65.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	32	29.0	32	27.0
Defensive midfield	14	20.0	17	22.5
Centre bounce	0	7.5	7	11.0
Attacking midfield	15	27.0	33	28.0
Forward 50	9	11.5	29	24.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
46	49.0	49	49.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	25	81%	85.1%	85.5%
Jack Steele	24	77%	68.7%	74.3%
Koltyn Tholstrup	19	61%	41.8%	0.0%
Caleb Windsor	16	52%	53.7%	12.1%
Kysaiah Pickett	12	39%	53.7%	69.0%
Tom Sparrow	12	39%	28.4%	6.6%
Trent Rivers	3	10%	28.4%	19.9%
Harrison Petty	3	10%	10.4%	0.4%
Jai Culley	3	10%	4.5%	0.0%
Kade Chandler	3	10%	4.5%	1.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	2	6%	3.0%	13.4%
Harvey Langford	1	3%	11.9%	9.9%
Latrelle Pickett	1	3%	1.5%
Xavier Lindsay	0	0%	3.0%	0.4%
Christian Salem	0	0%	1.5%	1.5%
Brody Mihocek	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	0.0%	3.1%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	57	74%	76.0%	81.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	9	12%	11.4%	15.0%
Jai Culley	6	8%	3.6%	0.0%
Harrison Petty	4	5%	7.8%	2.8%
Brody Mihocek	1	1%	1.2%	2.7%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2026)	To Adv. % (2025)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	57	28	8	23.4%	27.8%
Jacob van Rooyen	9	5	1	12.5%	30.3%
Harrison Petty	4	1	0	50.0%	23.6%
Brody Mihocek	1	0	0		45.4%
Opposition
Luke Jackson	37	13	7
Sean Darcy	40	11	3

On 17/03/2026 at 12:45, Demon Dynasty said:

Thanks Wheelo. The comparative stuff is handy and a nice addition.

Not that my contributions will be missed but with the latest iteration of DL's software i've personally found it tricky to just copy & paste my Ratings in anything resembling their original format like i was able to for many years prior to the update.

In the past i was also able to format those tables a tad after posting them to make them more appealing and legible. Even vs their original formatting at my end. That option has gone too unfortunately.

If there happens to be a future software update that makes it plausible / more legible once again then i might do an Arny.

So after 8 years of team & player ratings it's...

I've found the same thing since the new software came in. I'm sure there were benefits to changing but the user experience has had a drop off.

L Pickett needs to ramp up his defensive pressure quickly if he wants to remain in the team.

Rivers and Langford not getting much time in the middle at all.

The big discrepancy was their ball use which was well above AFL average whilst ours was well below. They have a lot of good users and smart decision makers. Alas, we do not on a weekly basis.

20 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

The big discrepancy was their ball use which was well above AFL average whilst ours was well below. They have a lot of good users and smart decision makers. Alas, we do not on a weekly basis.

Out a ball use has been our biggest issue for at least 20 years i reckon

second week in a row we've had a pressure rate of 165

need to increase that significantly

Binman: “I’m gonna have a structure. I’m gonna keep it tight. 20-30 minutes is what I’m aiming for”.

Also Binman:

8 hours ago, DutchDemons said:

Binman: “I’m gonna have a structure. I’m gonna keep it tight. 20-30 minutes is what I’m aiming for”.

Also Binman:

I'm an iconoclast - rules are meant to be broken, especially my own

11 hours ago, binman said:

I'm an iconoclast - rules are meant to be broken, especially my own

I’m definitely not complaining! I think the demonland podcast should be a 24 hour live stream.

Melbourne v Carlton (Round 3, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260307

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	2026	2025	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention	66.9	67.9	-1.0	68.9	70.5	70.9
Disposal Efficiency	68.3	69.6	-1.3	70.5	73.2	73.5
Kicking Efficiency	62.1	61.7	+0.4	64.4	67.8	67.2
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention	35.3	43.9	-8.6	48.6	46.2	47.3
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained	5742	5760	-18	5783.1	5545.5	5681.2
Kick Metres Gained / Kick	26.8	27.6	-0.7	26.9	26.2	26.2
Handball Metres Gained	376	302	+74	277.7	169.1	227.6
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	54.0	46.0	+8.1	52.4	51.4	50.0
Inside 50s	64	51	+13	59.0	52.8	54.1
Shots At Goal	27	26	+1	29.3	26.4	27.8
Scores / Inside 50	39.1	43.1	-4.1	42.4	45.1	46.4
Goals / Inside 50	23.4	21.6	+1.9	24.3	22.3	24.4
Marks Inside 50	11	12	-1	14.0	10.9	12.1
Transition
Chain To Score %	20.8	19.5	+1.4	21.9	21.5	22.1
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	23.3	19.6	+3.7	26.2	24.4	22.6
Defensive 50 To Score %	4.7	4.3	+0.3	11.9	9.7	9.6
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	31.7	29.9	+1.9	33.5	31.1	31.3
Defensive Half To Score %	7.9	7.5	+0.5	14.2	12.6	13.2
Contest
Contested Possessions	133	138	-5	125.3	135.2	128.9
Ground Ball Gets	87	101	-14	82.7	87.3	86.0
Post Clearance Contested Poss	74	82	-8	79.7	82.7	81.5
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	54	64	-10	59.7	56.7	58.1
Contested Marks	6	11	-5	8.7	10.5	8.1
Clearance
Total Clearances	40	38	+2	35.3	36.8	35.5
Centre Clearances	11	11	+0	14.3	12.8	13.2
Stoppage Clearances	29	27	+2	21.0	24.0	22.3
First Possessions	46	48	-2	37.0	42.3	38.5
First Possession To Clearance %	63.0	62.5	+0.5	70.3	72.3	74.6
Defense
Intercepts	70	66	+4	66.3	64.8	67.7
Intercept Marks	16	16	+0	17.7	16.3	14.0
Tackles	82	54	+28	59.7	57.2	54.9
Tackles Inside 50	10	8	+2	7.7	11.4	10.2
Def One On One Loss %	50.0	0.0	+50.0	38.5	27.9	27.2
Ruck
Ruck Contests	113	114	-1	93.3	92.2	87.8
Hitouts	68	26	+42	48.7	41.1	34.6
Hitouts To Advantage	18	10	+8	12.3	11.5	10.2
Equity Points
Pre Clearance	44.8	37.2	+7.6	36.0	33.3	33.5
Post Clearance	125.1	112.5	+12.6	131.6	115.9	124.7
Ball Winning	110.7	111.3	-0.6	112.7	112.5	110.9
Ball Use	67.5	41.0	+26.6	58.7	39.6	49.9

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Equity is the WheeloRatings implementation of the AFL Player Ratings.

• Ball Winning: Equity points from winning possession of the ball.

• Ball Use: Equity points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG	Ball Win.	Ball Use
Kysaiah Pickett	0.5	−1.6	9.8	14.5	23.2	83%	10.9	11.0
Max Gawn	1.3	5.0	4.0	8.6	18.9	85%	10.0	2.1
Bayley Fritsch	0.4	3.6	6.4	7.2	17.7	86%	3.2	13.0
Jake Lever	4.7	6.3	0.7	5.0	16.6	100%	9.1	5.3
Kade Chandler	0.9	6.7	6.3	1.9	15.8	83%	6.5	5.1
Tom Sparrow	0.3	1.9	5.8	6.6	14.7	71%	6.8	5.3
Jack Steele	−0.7	1.7	7.2	5.6	13.8	74%	7.5	1.2
Jai Culley	3.3	3.1	3.0	3.4	12.9	82%	5.8	4.2
Ed Langdon	3.0	1.7	4.5	3.8	12.9	90%	2.2	9.7
Tom McDonald	3.6	4.1	3.1	2.0	12.8	99%	5.3	4.0
Koltyn Tholstrup	2.1	4.7	1.1	3.4	11.2	78%	5.6	3.1
Harvey Langford	3.8	3.5	0.4	3.0	10.7	73%	3.8	6.5
Christian Salem	3.8	0.5	2.0	2.9	9.3	83%	6.9	1.1
Caleb Windsor	2.4	0.7	0.6	5.0	8.7	72%	3.3	0.5
Harry Sharp	1.1	1.1	0.0	4.7	7.0	76%	3.3	0.1
Xavier Lindsay	2.9	2.6	1.4	−0.4	6.6	68%	2.8	1.6
Harrison Petty	1.2	1.0	2.2	−0.3	4.1	90%	6.3	−0.7
Blake Howes	−0.6	3.2	−0.3	1.6	3.9	80%	3.0	−0.8
Paddy Cross	−0.5	0.0	1.1	3.3	3.8	61%	2.6	3.3
Latrelle Pickett	0.1	−0.6	3.4	−0.3	2.6	72%	1.7	1.2
Changkuoth Jiath	−0.9	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.5	28%	1.4	1.0
Jacob van Rooyen	−1.4	−2.3	0.0	0.6	−3.0	81%	0.4	−3.4
Brody Mihocek	−0.8	−3.7	1.5	−2.0	−5.0	84%	2.1	−6.7

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	6	6	0
Loose Ball Get	16	14	+2
Contested Mark	0	2	-2
Ruck Hard Ball Get	1	0	+1
Gather From Hitout	1	4	-3
Contested Knock On	1	0	+1
Free For	3	2	+1
Total	28	28	0
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	5	4	+1
Loose Ball Get	11	20	-9
Contested Mark	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	1	3	-2
Free For	2	0	+2
Total	19	28	-9
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	6	15	-9
Loose Ball Get	48	49	-1
Contested Mark	6	11	-5
Contested Knock On	4	1	+3
Free For	10	6	+4
Total	74	82	-8
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	10	14	-4
Loose Ball Get	23	23	0
Ruck Hard Ball Get	4	3	+1
Gather From Hitout	17	10	+7
Contested Knock On	1	2	-1
Free For	4	4	0
Total	59	56	+3

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	84.3	100	79%	+14.4	+23	+8.6
Carlton	69.9	77	21%

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-
Overall
Melbourne	27	15.8 98	55.6%	82.3	+15.7
Carlton	26	11.10 76	42.3%	69.9	+6.1
General Play
Melbourne	12	5.5 35	41.7%	31.9	+3.1
Carlton	11	4.6 30	36.4%	29.5	+0.5
Set Position
Melbourne	15	10.3 63	66.7%	50.4	+12.6
Carlton	15	7.4 46	46.7%	40.4	+5.6

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	24%	69%	61%	62%	54%	52%
Defensive	76%	31%	39%	38%	46%	48%
Region
Forward 50	6%	35%	30%	29%	25%	24%
Attacking Midfield	18%	34%	32%	33%	29%	28%
Defensive Midfield	35%	12%	25%	23%	24%	23%
Defensive 50	42%	19%	14%	14%	22%	24%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	xChainScore	Score	Diff
Melbourne
Kick-in	3.8	0.0 0	-3.8
Centre Bounce	10.3	2.0 12	+1.7
Stoppage (Other)	27.6	6.2 38	+10.4
Turnover	51.6	7.8 50	-1.6
Opposition
Kick-in	3.5	0.0 0	-3.5
Centre Bounce	10.3	2.4 16	+5.7
Stoppage (Other)	20.6	7.2 44	+23.4
Turnover	45.3	2.5 17	-28.3
Diff
Kick-in	+0.3	+0
Centre Bounce	+0.0	-4
Stoppage (Other)	+6.9	-6
Turnover	+6.3	+33

xChainScore: expected points scored based on the origin of a team’s chains, including clearances, turnovers, and kick-ins.

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	0	10.7	0	4.7
Centre Bounce	12	9.0	16	12.7
Stoppage (Other)	38	23.3	44	34.3
Turnover	50	53.7	17	49.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	2	20.0	7	20.3
Defensive midfield	13	17.7	8	17.7
Centre bounce	12	9.0	16	12.7
Attacking midfield	51	35.0	26	27.3
Forward 50	22	15.0	20	22.7

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
15	37.7	15	38.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2026 %	2025 %
Jack Steele	25	86%	74.0%	74.3%
Max Gawn	24	83%	84.4%	85.5%
Kysaiah Pickett	23	79%	62.5%	69.0%
Tom Sparrow	21	72%	41.7%	6.6%
Caleb Windsor	13	45%	51.0%	12.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	4	14%	6.2%	13.4%
Jai Culley	3	10%	6.2%	0.0%
Koltyn Tholstrup	2	7%	31.2%	0.0%
Harrison Petty	1	3%	8.3%	0.4%
Harvey Langford	0	0%	8.3%	9.9%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	3.1%	1.1%
Xavier Lindsay	0	0%	2.1%	0.4%
Christian Salem	0	0%	1.0%	1.5%
Brody Mihocek	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	0.0%	3.1%
Trent Rivers			28.4%	19.9%
Daniel Turner			0.0%	0.2%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	94	83%	78.9%	81.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	12	11%	11.1%	15.0%
Brody Mihocek	5	4%	2.5%	2.7%
Harrison Petty	2	2%	5.4%	2.8%
Jai Culley	0	0%	2.1%	0.0%
Daniel Turner			0.0%	0.2%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2026)	To Adv. % (2025)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	94	58	17	26.2%	27.8%
Jacob van Rooyen	12	6	0	7.1%	30.3%
Brody Mihocek	5	3	1	33.3%	45.4%
Harrison Petty	2	1	0	42.9%	23.6%
Opposition
Marc Pittonet	82	19	6
Hudson O'Keeffe	23	4	2
Lewis Young	7	3	2
Jacob Weitering	2	0	0

Okay. Here me out.

In theory, with 23 games in the home and away season (only since 2023), the nonsense pre-finals final new to this season, and then four regular finals, a team finishing 7th-10th and reaching the grand final would play a total of 28 games for the season.

This opens up the all-time season records for a variety of stats, even if the player doesn't have the most per-game for season 2026!

Specific Demons in the hunt include;

Jack Steele, equal first tackles in the league at 9.33 per game, chasing Tom Atkins 2025 total of 232 at an average of 8.92 from 26 games. ON TARGET

Max Gawn, second in hit-outs behind Jarrod Witts, and going at a tick over 40 per game, chasing his own 2018 record of 1119 from 25 games at 44.7 per game. ON TARGET

Max Gawn, again, second for contested marks, behind Josh Treacy and going at 2.7 per game. This one is a bit trickier as the all-time record is Travis Cloke with 95 from 25 games at a staggering 3.8 per game. But 3.4 per game would do the job in a 28 game season.

Melbourne v Carlton (Round 3, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260307

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	185	169	+16
2	183	177	+6
3	209	187	+22
4	202	171	+31
Match	195	176	+19

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Steele	32	96	61.7
Kade Chandler	24	63	45.0
Tom Sparrow	23	59	49.3
Kysaiah Pickett	20	50	50.3
Harry Sharp	19	50	33.3
Caleb Windsor	15	40	44.7
Christian Salem	16	34	24.7
Blake Howes	12	33	15.7
Latrelle Pickett	14	32	15.3
Ed Langdon	15	29	24.7
Jacob van Rooyen	12	29	15.7
Koltyn Tholstrup	12	28	27.3
Jai Culley	11	27	31.7
Harvey Langford	13	23	22.7
Changkuoth Jiath	9	19	23.7
Harrison Petty	8	18	23.3
Max Gawn	6	18	17.0
Bayley Fritsch	7	18	11.3
Brody Mihocek	7	17	13.3
Jake Lever	6	15	18.3
Xavier Lindsay	6	14	24.3
Tom McDonald	5	10	10.0
Paddy Cross	2	3	3.0

Source: Herald Sun