19 of the last 20 premierships have been won by first time coaches

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Why 8, it's just an arbitrary number. If it was a hard and fast cutoff then they wouldn't have wasted time interviewing him but I agree, it makes the call look silly.

Yeah, that was always my point. Why set such an arbitrary number when the best coach could have 6 or 7 years experience?

As it turns out, Kelly has, at best, 7 years coaching experience.

Anyway, I think Buckley will be announced next week.

Just now, wisedog said:

I made mention of Hardwick in my first post. Whether you view Lyon’s tenure at Freo as a success and Voss at Carlton is a matter of opinion. However, those records are certainly achievements.

And yes, I understand new coaches are overwhelming appointed. The point I’m making is that returning coaches are often seen as the leaders who will replicate the success they have previously enjoyed - but that rarely seems to be the case.

So to elaborate on Hardwick, he came in off the back of Guy McKenna (first time), Rodney Eade (third time), and Stewart Dew (first time). You also mentioned Roos who didn't win anything for us but was the exact right appointment for us in that moment.

I would absolutely say that Lyon was a success at freo. He is the most successful coach in their history to date. Making prelims and Grand Finals is not an easy job. He was also the only coach they've ever had who had coached an AFL team prior.

People may laugh when I say Voss but Carlton had been anchored to the bottom of the ladder for a decade when he arrived.

The point is, these guys all moved the needle in a positive direction even if they haven't yet got the ultimate.

Any coach, whether they are first timers or returning, need to be the right fit for the club and be given the suppport structure to succeed.

The first timer vs returning coach debate is too shallow. There are just so many other tangible variables that are more important than a statistical anomaly around recent premiership coaches. It shouldn't be a consideration in our hiring process.

13 hours ago, Ted Lasso said:

It’s almost certainly the coaches and managers leaking this rather than the panel.

Don’t agree with that.

I doubt Josh Gabeilich is peddling this story off the back of a phone call from Lade’s manager claiming the club loved him.

It’s a possibility, yes, but it is also a possibility (and a more likely one in my opinion) that the footy club is leaking the information as part of their ‘plan B’ in the event Buckley turns us down.

Much easier to sell the Plan B option to the fans, sponsors and footy world if there is an existing narrative about the high calibre of candidates in the process.

1 minute ago, wisedog said:

And yes, I understand new coaches are overwhelming appointed. The point I’m making is that returning coaches are often seen as the leaders who will replicate the success they have previously enjoyed - but that rarely seems to be the case.

Your point is valid. There is, however, a longer list of first time coaches who disappeared into the abyss. Here's some names from relatively recent times -

Brisbane - Voss, Leppitsch

Carlton - Brittain, Ratten, Bolton, Teague

Essendon - Knights, Hird, Rutten

North - Shaw, Noble (Laidley and Scott did make finals)

Melbourne - Bailey, Neeld

Gold Coast - McKenna, Dew

St Kilda - Watters, Richardson

West Coast - too early to tell on McQualter

Fremantle - have gone both ways and the only really successful was Lyon who got them to a granny who was a second timer. Otherwise they've gone first timers throughout their history which is now 30 years without saluting.

GWS have only had first timers since Sheedy and both Cameron and Kingsley have been relatively successful.

Most of the rest have had good stability for a decent period - Geelong Thompson/Scott; Hawthorn Clarkson/Mitchell; Swans - Roos/Longmire/Cox

It's easy to get it wrong with a first timer. Of the second or third timers currently -

Voss - prelim

Lyon - finals in first year then a reset

Clarkson - nothing yet

Brad Scott - nothing yet

Hardwick - finals

1 minute ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Don’t agree with that.

I doubt Josh Gabeilich is peddling this story off the back of a phone call from Lade’s manager claiming the club loved him.

It’s a possibility, yes, but it is also a possibility (and a more likely one in my opinion) that the footy club is leaking the information as part of their ‘plan B’ in the event Buckley turns us down.

Much easier to sell the Plan B option to the fans, sponsors and footy world if there is an existing narrative about the high calibre of candidates in the process.

Granted it could be optics. The club saying “look at us conducting interviews, this isn’t a boat race” probably the benefit for the assistants in question is it does raise their profile to get a podium finish

17 minutes ago, Swooper1987 said:

Your point is valid. There is, however, a longer list of first time coaches who disappeared into the abyss. Here's some names from relatively recent times -

Brisbane - Voss, Leppitsch

Carlton - Brittain, Ratten, Bolton, Teague

Essendon - Knights, Hird, Rutten

North - Shaw, Noble (Laidley and Scott did make finals)

Melbourne - Bailey, Neeld

Gold Coast - McKenna, Dew

St Kilda - Watters, Richardson

West Coast - too early to tell on McQualter

Fremantle - have gone both ways and the only really successful was Lyon who got them to a granny who was a second timer. Otherwise they've gone first timers throughout their history which is now 30 years without saluting.

GWS have only had first timers since Sheedy and both Cameron and Kingsley have been relatively successful.

Most of the rest have had good stability for a decent period - Geelong Thompson/Scott; Hawthorn Clarkson/Mitchell; Swans - Roos/Longmire/Cox

It's easy to get it wrong with a first timer. Of the second or third timers currently -

Voss - prelim

Lyon - finals in first year then a reset

Clarkson - nothing yet

Brad Scott - nothing yet

Hardwick - finals

Very good post. Only 15 coaches have won a flag since 2000. When you look at complete list of coaching appointments over that time, new vs experienced is a much better guide!

Was Roos a failure at Melbourne? No, we improved each year and he started with a basket case of a team!

2 hours ago, wisedog said:

I think it’s a valid thread. I’ve often thought how few examples of success there are from head coaches in their 2nd or 3rd tenures.

Wallace, Eade at GC, Malthouse, Pagan, Voss, Lyon and Scott were all seen as a safe pair of hands but were largely unsuccessful. Jury is still out on Clarkson.

On the other hand, you have Hardwick, who appears to have bucked the trend, and of course Roos, who laid some very solid cultural foundations at Melbourne. I struggle to think of many other examples of success recently.

I don’t know why that is. Does the game change too quickly and coaches become set in their ways? Or are they expected to come in and cover a multitude of shortcomings within the entire organisation.

Three are just so many factors at play, whether at board level, coach level and so, so many in two hours 22 plus games a year across a coach's tenure at a club . I don't even think any of us have a complete list of every 'repeat' coach this century ( or last forty years or sixty years or whatever) let alone proper analysis past simple calculations.

Most first time coaches come in with almost impeccable recent assistant coach records. The aura on second- time coaches has nearly always faded. Just look at our own Goody - despite breaking our drought by even last year quite a few had given up on him and were calling him an ordinary coach. If he applies for senior coach again that team will have fans pooh-poohing him just we have some doing to Buckley. Honestly there's no magic formula -just get someone who hasn't proven that they CAN'T coach and presented well and not worry whether they're an ex-coach, had more than 2 years out of coaching, were a Brownlow medallist or even a ruckman. They're probably the wrong factors

24 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

So to elaborate on Hardwick, he came in off the back of Guy McKenna (first time), Rodney Eade (third time), and Stewart Dew (first time). You also mentioned Roos who didn't win anything for us but was the exact right appointment for us in that moment.

I would absolutely say that Lyon was a success at freo. He is the most successful coach in their history to date. Making prelims and Grand Finals is not an easy job. He was also the only coach they've ever had who had coached an AFL team prior.

People may laugh when I say Voss but Carlton had been anchored to the bottom of the ladder for a decade when he arrived.

The point is, these guys all moved the needle in a positive direction even if they haven't yet got the ultimate.

Any coach, whether they are first timers or returning, need to be the right fit for the club and be given the suppport structure to succeed.

The first timer vs returning coach debate is too shallow. There are just so many other tangible variables that are more important than a statistical anomaly around recent premiership coaches. It shouldn't be a consideration in our hiring process.

Well I can’t help but feel our point is the same (aside from the metrics of how success should be defined.)

I agree the new versus returning coach debate is shallow; which is why I find the expectation a returning coach will rescue a struggling club from the doldrums just as shallow. Particularly, as you write, there are so many intangible factors within a Club, which also need to addressed. And perhaps this is why the Jackson and Roos ticket was so successful.

Edited September 12, 2025Sep 12 by wisedog

Are we there yet.

7 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Are we there yet.

7 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Are we there yet.

Mate I was just thinking this! Every time dazzle posts I open this expecting to see a twitter story saying “ dees have chosen Nathan Buckley and called a press conference”

9 minutes ago, Ted Lasso said:

Mate I was just thinking this! Every time dazzle posts I open this expecting to see a twitter story saying “ dees have chosen Nathan Buckley and called a press conference”

They have said that it will be in prelim week, so wait a few days grasshopper, I would reckon Tuesday-Wednesday so not to get caught up in the games and clear air for the announcement.

Just now, Gorgoroth said:

They have said that it will be in prelim week, so wait a few days grasshopper, I would reckon Tuesday-Wednesday so not to get caught up in the games and clear air for the announcement.

Surely we can only announce Buckley, Lade or Giansiracusa whilst the Cats are still involved?

17 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Surely we can only announce Buckley, Lade or Giansiracusa whilst the Cats are still involved?

I'm not 100% sure but I think we can announce them but they cant start until after??? But I'm guessing here.

4 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I'm not 100% sure but I think we can announce them but they cant start until after??? But I'm guessing here.

I’m more talking about the unsettling of the Cats campaign than any “rules”. Sadly we need the Cats to beat Collingwood in the likely GF. God that’s a dire situation we all find ourselves in. At least we have Essendon.

Five is now down to four.

5 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Five is now down to four.

??

5 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Five is now down to four.

Please don't bait me like this I'm already on edge until the coach is announced...

7 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Five is now down to four.

12 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Five is now down to four.

See ya Bucks.

3 hours ago, Greg Schneider said:

19 of the last 20 premierships have been won by first time coaches

Maybe Nathan can BUCK the trend.

......I'll see myself out

1 minute ago, Davos said:

See ya Bucks.

Edited September 12, 2025Sep 12 by BLWNBA

14 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Five is now down to four.

A shred of context and who it is would be nice

9 minutes ago, Ted Lasso said:

So I’m not sure what evidence there is that we’ve botched anything given we haven’t even hired a new coach.

2 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Oh my.