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1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

I only have pressure rating data since the start of 2023 (only missing rounds 4 & 6 2023) and only for Melbourne and their opponent.

Firstly, Melbourne's average pressure this season is lower than the last two seasons, but it's marginally higher than our opponents.

Melbourne's average pressure by season

Season

For

Agn

2023

181.4

183.5

2024

178.6

180.4

2025

175.9

175.4

Melbourne's best quarter this season is the third with an average of 182.3 (opponent 175.6) and worst is the fourth with an average of 170.7 (opponent 175.0) - which probably wouldn't surprise.

Apologies for the formatting, but here are the pressure ratings per game (For | Against | Differential). I have highlighted Melbourne's worst games in terms of pressure differential (-10 or worse) OR absolute pressure (175 or worse). It was clearly worse around the byes last year but not as clear in 2023.

2023

R1: 188 | 169 | +19

R2: 187 | 177 | +10

R3: 170 | 168 | +2

R5: 174 | 191 | -17

R7: 169 | 163 | +6

R8: 184 | 177 | +7

R9: 184 | 175 | +9

R10: 194 | 205 | -11

R11: 185 | 198 | -13

R12: 170 | 170 | +0

R13: 183 | 186 | -3

R14: BYE

R15: 196 | 196 | +0

R16: 186 | 187 | -1

R17: 172 | 175 | -3

R18: 168 | 180 | -12

R19: 183 | 191 | -8

R20: 181 | 183 | -2

R21: 175 | 182 | -7

R22: 200 | 206 | -6

R23: 180 | 163 | +17

R24: 187 | 197 | -10

QF: 178 | 192 | -14

SF: 178 | 189 | -11

2024

R0: 182 | 190 | -8

R1: 177 | 162 | +15

R2: 189 | 172 | +17

R3: 182 | 189 | -7

R4: 190 | 182 | +8

R5: 168 | 201 | -33

R7: 170 | 171 | -1

R8: 176 | 170 | +6

R9: 202 | 194 | +8

R10: 184 | 189 | -5

R11: 174 | 160 | +14

R12: 175 | 181 | -6

R13: 164 | 187 | -23

R14: BYE

R15: 189 | 195 | -6

R16: 172 | 190 | -18

R17: 191 | 168 | +23

R18: 176 | 190 | -14

R19: 173 | 154 | +19

R20: 180 | 189 | -9

R21: 172 | 176 | -4

R22: 179 | 186 | -7

R23: 181 | 175 | +6

R24: 161 | 178 | -17

2025

R1: 189 | 190 | -1

R2: 172 | 176 | -4

R3: 174 | 175 | -1

R4: 166 | 181 | -15

R5: 164 | 178 | -14

R6: 187 | 164 | +23

R7: 193 | 161 | +32

R8: 173 | 182 | -9

R9: 176 | 172 | +4

R10: 165 | 169 | -4

R11: 190 | 190 | +0

R12: 162 | 167 | -5

Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Makes for fascinating reading

It makes sense that our average pressure rating is a bit lower this year than than previous years given shift to a more transition focused game.

Just a note on 2024 - we also had a bye in round 6 (because we played the stupid OR).

 
1 hour ago, picket fence said:

Begs the question.... are we fit enough??

Sung to the tune of:

13 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

I'm one of the more optimistic on here I think, but I just don't see it with Laurie. He has enough experience to know coming off fresh is such an advantage to provide some drive for us and he gave us nothing. I'm convinced he wont make it. I'd rather try a Sestan, Henderson, Brown or Culley.

Frigging Geelong trading up and pinching Holmes from us 😔

Holmes and Bowey from the covid draft would've been a ridiculous haul from Taylor.

 
6 hours ago, binman said:

My take.

I know not everyone agrees with me (or perhaps do, to some degree, but think i over egg the pudding) about the impact of loading.

But i'd make three points:

One, as i have noted for the last 4-5 seasons on Demonland, EVERY year during this phase of the season (ie the mid-season byes period) there are ALWAYS a huge number of anomalous results. This is a fact.

And the results are not just upset wins; there's also heaps of weird margins (eg massive blowouts, games that are much closer than the bookies have pegged it at etc). For example, in the GWS v Tigers' game the Tiger's line was +45 points. Which means the punters thought that GWS would win that game by nearly 8 goals. The tigers lost by 3 points, covering their line by a massive 42 points.

I have zero doubt the anomalous results are in large part are a function of where teams are at with their high-performance program.

To be clear I'm not arguing the high-performance programs are the only reason for this long-standing clear pattern of anomalous results in the middle of the year. But it is without doubt a significant factor, one that is all but completely ignored by media and fans alike.

Two, i think our performance against the Saints was impacted by us loading. And I'm not being smart after the fact.

In a pre-game post on DL arguing i thought we were too short in the betting and that it was the very definition of a danger game i noted one of the 6 reasons for this opinion was:

  • 'I wonder if our high-performance program is geared towards being in optimal shape on Kings birthday at the potential expense of this game (ie bigger block of training into this game then taking advantage of the 8-day break to taper into the pies game)'

Following up to a comment by Bring Back Powell that he hopes I'm wrong because he'd rather we prioritized the game we have a better chance of winning, for risk of losing both games, i responded that i can see that logic, but that:

  • 'I just wonder, given how poorly we have played in the Queens, Kings birthday game in the last few years (ironically, in large part because, IMO, we have been loading at this point in previous seasons) if the idea might be to be cherry ripe for the game.'

I'm convinced that proved to be the case, ie we took a calculated risk and did a big block of training ahead of this game, with the goal of optimizing our condition for the Pies game, and our performance suffered as a result.

My final point is in regard to the push back i often get when raising this topic - if all teams do it how come the Pies (or insert other top teams) don't drop games they should not lose whereas we do.

My answer is that it is a very good question, and that the answer includes factors such as having too many poor kicks and in previous years having a game plan more dependent on pressure than other teams (pressure is the thing that most noticeably drops off under the fatigue of loading*).

But also, that it's reasonable to question our mental resilience (what is leading teams doing?), planning and coaching. I would note, however, that the top teams DO lose matches during this phase of the year.

*Pressure is by the best measure of fatigue, with contested possessions second. They said on the fox coverage that:

  • Our last quarter pressure rating was the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody

  • The average for the game the fifth lowest EVER under goody

I suspect that the majority of our top 10 worst pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of our mid-season bye. @WheeloRatings do you have access to our historical pressure rating data?

I'm not saying you're wrong as teams definitely load. But don't you think it would be dumb to load after starting 0-5 with no room for error? In previous seasons you've said (and I agree) that getting off to a good start (10-0 in 2021/22) banked those wins early allowing us the luxury of loading midseason to come home with a head of steam and cherry ripe for September. That all goes out the window when you start 0-5 and need to win those midseason games to be in with a shot of appearing in September.

Loading won't help if we're running on top of the ground while the players are in Europe/Bali.

Loading could explain the drop in pressure. It could also explain the failure to cover the Saints transition, the slipped/ineffective tackles and yes the goal kicking (as tired legs struggle to kick straight). But if that's what it was I would seriously have to question the logic of doing it when we need all the wins we can get.

9 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm not saying you're wrong as teams definitely load. But don't you think it would be dumb to load after starting 0-5 with no room for error? In previous seasons you've said (and I agree) that getting off to a good start (10-0 in 2021/22) banked those wins early allowing us the luxury of loading midseason to come home with a head of steam and cherry ripe for September. That all goes out the window when you start 0-5 and need to win those midseason games to be in with a shot of appearing in September.

Loading won't help if we're running on top of the ground while the players are in Europe/Bali.

Loading could explain the drop in pressure. It could also explain the failure to cover the Saints transition, the slipped/ineffective tackles and yes the goal kicking (as tired legs struggle to kick straight). But if that's what it was I would seriously have to question the logic of doing it when we need all the wins we can get.

I agree but maybe without it we crash and burn later??


1 minute ago, Roost it far said:

I agree but maybe without it we crash and burn later??

You wouldn't think so, just instead of getting that boost from tapered workloads you get the consistent performance throughout the season. May make it harder to stick with teams later in the year who ARE loading but again it's all theoretical if you don't make September anyway.

Edited by Dr. Gonzo

11 hours ago, picket fence said:

How many weeks for A.J??

Two weeks as it turned out…so who comes in for Johnson? Do we bring in JVR for his ability to bust packs if he doesn’t mark the ball, or Jeffo who isn’t really a solid pack mark and is often out bodied, but can kick goals…the issue there is that our mids will really need to work on the inside 50 entries (no just bombing it in to the pocket) and the forwards will really need to work on their leading patterns).

Viney will come in for Laurie, and will likely start with the forwards.

Lever might get sent back to Casey to work on his game and get back some confidence, so in comes TMac.

Possibly Windsor to the wing and XL to the backs.

Sharp will go back to being the super sub.

Edited by hardtack

8 hours ago, binman said:

Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Makes for fascinating reading

It makes sense that our average pressure rating is a bit lower this year than than previous years given shift to a more transition focused game.

Just a note on 2024 - we also had a bye in round 6 (because we played the stupid OR).

Thanks @binman , I did have the round 6 bye marked but then I re-pasted the data and forgot to add the bye again!

 

14 hours ago, binman said:

Good thing he didn't annoy spargs then.

Corrected it thanks.

And don't get me started on the fact that we sold another game for $$$ and didn't win! As Ross Lyon said serious footy clubs don't sell home games!

Edited by picket fence


48 minutes ago, picket fence said:

And don't get me started on the fact that we sold another game for $$$ and didn't win! As Ross Lyon said serious footy clubs don't sell home games!

Ross Lyon can’t comment on serious footy clubs.

1 minute ago, picket fence said:

Been thinking about this for a while. MUST tag Faicos, might give the job to Rivers. If we dont tag him he will get 50 posssesions 3 goals and 6 Brownlow votes.

THOUGHTS??

1 minute ago, Roost it far said:

Ross Lyon can’t comment on serious footy clubs.

His club just beat ours, he can say what he likes!

53 minutes ago, picket fence said:

And don't get me started on the fact that we sold another game for $$$ and didn't win! As Ross Lyon said serious footy clubs don't sell home games!

Yeah like those unserious Hawks who won 4 flags whilst selling 4 games a season to Tasmania.

3 minutes ago, picket fence said:

His club just beat ours, he can say what he likes!

His club has won one flag in its history, it’s as close to irrelevant as GC and GWS. On top of that his game plan is the worst in the comp, he’s won nothing and he’s got a dubious personal record. He talks a big game but barely delivers a weeks groceries. Ross Lyon can go [censored] himself.

Edited by Roost it far

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm not saying you're wrong as teams definitely load. But don't you think it would be dumb to load after starting 0-5 with no room for error? In previous seasons you've said (and I agree) that getting off to a good start (10-0 in 2021/22) banked those wins early allowing us the luxury of loading midseason to come home with a head of steam and cherry ripe for September. That all goes out the window when you start 0-5 and need to win those midseason games to be in with a shot of appearing in September.

Loading won't help if we're running on top of the ground while the players are in Europe/Bali.

Loading could explain the drop in pressure. It could also explain the failure to cover the Saints transition, the slipped/ineffective tackles and yes the goal kicking (as tired legs struggle to kick straight). But if that's what it was I would seriously have to question the logic of doing it when we need all the wins we can get.

Yep, all good points.

And what I like about them is the focus is, for the sake of argument assuming our clear dead legged performance was as a result of loading, questioning the logic of doing so.

Given how big an impact it has on our fortunes, our high performance program and strategy should be questioned, should be critiqued.

I question our ability to perform when we are fatigued and wonder to what extent mental preparedness plays a part. There's no excuse for not being switched on at the start if the game and it didn't link like we were.

Let's say I'm right, and I think I am (your point about not covering their spread is an excellent one - we have been the team spreading opponents of late, Lyon clearly knew we were sluggish and he looked to exploit that), my thoughts about your reasonable question about not changing tack because of our 0-5 start are:

  • What would the consequences be of changing a complex, carefully calibrated program halfway thru the season (different scenario because they had banked wins, but when the pies played freo off a five day break they had a lot of injuries yet stuck with their plan to rest key senior players, clearly impacting their chances of winning. When asked about that decision Mcrae said they had a plan created in the preseason and stuck with that plan - it's about the war not the battle)

  • If we are not in optimal shape against the pies they will shred us - after two peak games (the lions, then swans) would we be able to have yet another against the Saints and then peak again and be in optimal shape against the pies?

  • How important is it we play really well next Monday - one of only two guaranteed marquee games we have each season, one we have played poorly in in recent times, huge TV audience and a home game go boot

  • What is impact on the high-performance program and planning of having to play Port, in Adelaide Oval, off on a six-day break after the Pies games (i'd argue it's not really possible, particularly for teams with so many young players in it, to be 'up' for five games straight (and we were up and about against the hawks too)

  • The bye is the recovery period for pre bye loading - given we have the bye after the Port game we have to load at some point ahead of the bye and given we had perhaps given we had a seven daybreak into the Saints and an eight day break into the Pies perhaps doing that work ahead of the saint's game made more sense than comprising our performance against the Pies and Port (potentially an 8 point game given they are more likely to be make finals than the Saints

  • That would be a calculated gamble, but that's part of the equation no doubt in the preseason planning process - and really even fatigued we should have beaten the Saints given it's not as if they played out of their skins

Edited by binman


1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Yeah like those unserious Hawks who won 4 flags whilst selling 4 games a season to Tasmania.

There's the problem right there. 4 PREMIERSHIPS ??? we have 1 in a zillion years.

1 hour ago, binman said:

Yep, all good points.

And what I like about them is the focus is, for the sake of argument assuming our clear dead legged performance was as a result of loading, questioning the logic of doing so.

Given how big an impact it has on our fortunes, our high performance program and strategy should be questioned, should be critiqued.

I question our ability to perform when we are fatigued and wonder to what extent mental preparedness plays a part. There's no exuse for not being switched on at the start if the game and it didn't link like we were.

Let's say I'm right, and I think I am (your point about not covering their spread is an excellent one - we have been the team spreading opponents of late, Lyon clearly knew we were sluggish and he looked to exploit that), my thoughts about your reasonable question about not changing tack because of our 0-5 start are:

  • What would the consequences be of changing a complex, carefully program half way thru the seaon (different scenario because they had banked wins, but when the pies played freo off a five day break they had a lot of injuries yet stuck with their plan to rest key seniour players, clearly impacting their chances of winning. When asked about that decision mcrae said they had a plan and stuck with that plan - its about the war not the battle)

  • If we are not in optimal shape against the pies they will shred us - after two peak games (the lions, then swans) would we be able to have yet another against the Saints and then peak again and be in optimal shape against the pies?

  • How important is it we play really well next Monday - one of only two guaranteed marquee games we have each season, one we have played poorly in in recent times, huge TV audience and a home game go boot

Good points, I guess the proof of the pudding will be in the eating right? Let's see how Mondays pudding turns out, if we beat the Pies all will be forgiven 🤣

And let's say we do beat the Pies, we still have a chance to then beat Port and go into the bye at 7-7 with a focus on the run home. A long shot but let's see how it plays out.

Edited by Dr. Gonzo

44 minutes ago, picket fence said:

There's the problem right there. 4 PREMIERSHIPS ??? we have 1 in a zillion years.

Must've been all those NT games in the 70s 80s and 90s that cost us flags.

6 hours ago, hardtack said:

Two weeks as it turned out…so who comes in for Johnson? Do we bring in JVR for his ability to bust packs if he doesn’t mark the ball, or Jeffo who isn’t really a solid pack mark and is often out bodied, but can kick goals…the issue there is that our mids will really need to work on the inside 50 entries (no just bombing it in to the pocket) and the forwards will really need to work on their leading patterns).

Time to give JVR and Jeffo some confidence and guidance. JVR needs to be a bit up the ground in a more mobile role. I think of him as a CHF ( Jerremy Cameron style).

Jeffo reminds me of a Daniher (not kicking wise) in his build and probably needs coaching so he is not out bodied. What they need is specific coaching directed to their strengths by some recent players, I know we have a soft cap but we must be able to do this somehow, its a lot cheaper than just recruiting.

13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Frigging Geelong trading up and pinching Holmes from us 😔

Holmes and Bowey from the covid draft would've been a ridiculous haul from Taylor.

Would loves to have landed Holmes. Terrific footballer.

And I know it ain't gonna happen, but jeez how good would it be to land Wanganeen-Milera foe next season. He is exactly what we need, though to be fair every team would be improved of he joined them.


13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Frigging Geelong trading up and pinching Holmes from us 😔

Holmes and Bowey from the covid draft would've been a ridiculous haul from Taylor.

Not to forget their ability to pick Smith - a brownlow favourite - for late first rounder and a packet of chips.

Its infuriating how they manage to pull this [censored] again and again. You just have to marvel at how stable they are as a footy club.

4 hours ago, picket fence said:

His club just beat ours, he can say what he likes!

Ross Lyon coached one of the most talented teams in recent decades and got them 0 flags.

He’s also coached the joke that is Fremantle.

He has a lot to say for someone who has won no flags with two clubs, that he ran out on.

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Would loves to have landed Holmes. Terrific footballer.

And I know it ain't gonna happen, but jeez how good would it be to land Wanganeen-Milera foe next season. He is exactly what we need, though to be fair every team would be improved of he joined them.

I remember watching him play a praccy game against us in 2022 down at Morrabbin. You could tell then he was going to be a good footballer.

Id throw stupid money at him and get Kozzy, Maysie and the rest of the indigenous boys around him to see if he'd consider. Maybe it'll get Kozzy to rethink a move as well.

Saints would ask for a fair bit for him.. he's probably worth 2 first rounders.

 
1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Ross Lyon coached one of the most talented teams in recent decades and got them 0 flags.

He’s also coached the joke that is Fremantle.

He has a lot to say for someone who has won no flags with two clubs, that he ran out on.

But I reckon he is correct on this issue!

4 hours ago, binman said:

Yep, all good points.

And what I like about them is the focus is, for the sake of argument assuming our clear dead legged performance was as a result of loading, questioning the logic of doing so.

Given how big an impact it has on our fortunes, our high performance program and strategy should be questioned, should be critiqued.

I question our ability to perform when we are fatigued and wonder to what extent mental preparedness plays a part. There's no excuse for not being switched on at the start if the game and it didn't link like we were.

Let's say I'm right, and I think I am (your point about not covering their spread is an excellent one - we have been the team spreading opponents of late, Lyon clearly knew we were sluggish and he looked to exploit that), my thoughts about your reasonable question about not changing tack because of our 0-5 start are:

  • What would the consequences be of changing a complex, carefully calibrated program halfway thru the season (different scenario because they had banked wins, but when the pies played freo off a five day break they had a lot of injuries yet stuck with their plan to rest key senior players, clearly impacting their chances of winning. When asked about that decision Mcrae said they had a plan created in the preseason and stuck with that plan - it's about the war not the battle)

  • If we are not in optimal shape against the pies they will shred us - after two peak games (the lions, then swans) would we be able to have yet another against the Saints and then peak again and be in optimal shape against the pies?

  • How important is it we play really well next Monday - one of only two guaranteed marquee games we have each season, one we have played poorly in in recent times, huge TV audience and a home game go boot

  • What is impact on the high-performance program and planning of having to play Port, in Adelaide Oval, off on a six-day break after the Pies games (i'd argue it's not really possible, particularly for teams with so many young players in it, to be 'up' for five games straight (and we were up and about against the hawks too)

  • The bye is the recovery period for pre bye loading - given we have the bye after the Port game we have to load at some point ahead of the bye and given we had perhaps given we had a seven daybreak into the Saints and an eight day break into the Pies perhaps doing that work ahead of the saint's game made more sense than comprising our performance against the Pies and Port (potentially an 8 point game given they are more likely to be make finals than the Saints

  • That would be a calculated gamble, but that's part of the equation no doubt in the preseason planning process - and really even fatigued we should have beaten the Saints given it's not as if they played out of their skins

Loading is a hypothesis that better explains the observation (i.e. great, high-intensity footy the previous weeks and rubbish, low-intensity the next) than the alternatives put forward (weak, soft, drinking bathwater etc).

However, seems indulgent to be loading into the Saints game given our ladder situation. I note the points you raise above and, if loading did occur, maybe these are the reasons why. Even so, I think this is flawed. A high performance program that is rigidly set at the beginning of the season and not recalibrated as the season unfolds seems high risk of imploding.

I think this is particularly true for MFC in 2025. Coming off 14th place in 2024, it would be foolish to assume we could roll into the middle of the season with 10 wins. Especially when pre-season we had injuries (and suspension) to key ball users in the new game plan (McVee, Windsor, Melksham, Kozzie). Six debutants in round 1 was both exciting AND worrying.

I think we will be more competitive against Collingwood but even at our best a win will be hard. Come the end of the season, I worry that the Saints game will be game that we couldn't afford to drop.


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