COLIN WISBEY'S 2006 NATIONAL DRAFT PREDICTIONS

[Demonland 73,140]

COLIN WISBEY'S 2006 NATIONAL DRAFT PREDICTIONS - PART ONE

Internet draft wizz kid Colin Wisbey has finally put together his predictions for the 2006 AFL National Draft selections. Here they are in full (and look out for the surprise twist at the end for Demon fans):

PREFACE

Because I pulled the plug early on posting my profiles at draft time, I've been re-writing my predictions list to include more comprehensive detail for most players than I normally would.

This is taking a lot longer than I had anticipated, having to fit it in with more important work priorities.

My predictions are based entirely on pre-draft. No consideration has been given to anything that has occurred since then.

PREDICTIONS FOR "UNDER 18" 2006 AFL DRAFTEES

I judge them to have "made AFL" when they have played a decent number of good AFL games over a sustained period (i.e. not merely getting games when their club's list is decimated by injuries, or due to just their size or pace presenting them with premature opportunities).

The categories generally reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.

This was a terrific draft, somewhat like 2001 but with greater depth. I believe there are many serious bargains in that I feel some clubs paid a very high price for certain players and that some others who I consider "sure fire" AFL were allowed to slip because they weren't a sexy height etc. In my honest opinion Essendon did very well in this "bargains" area.

The following format is "Player (actual draft pick and club) [my pre-draft ranking]".

Note: My ranking number does not necessarily reflect the draft pick I would use or would be necessary. (eg You don't pay a higher draft pick price than you think will be needed to get the player). In designating a ranking number, I try to come up a number that reflects both the relative upside and risk/concerns. Every Recruiting Manager (and staff) wrestles with the same exercise. eg You might think a player has great upside but that there is a significant doubt/concern about his likelihood of achieving it (perhaps through concerns about his current commitment or ability to overcome a current chronic injury etc). You might think another player has less upside but you are far more confident of him achieving it. Which player do you rank higher / get keener on? Furthermore, as of this draft I'm against ranking any specialist ruck in top 15 anyway. (Rucks tend to be more injury prone, take longer to return on investment, are more likely to have queries re bulking up, and there is historically a disproportionate success rate of late ruck picks over early ones).

CATEGORY ONE - WILL BE TOP SHELF (roughly in the order of their upside but allowing for my level of confidence in them achieving it):

GIBBS, Bryce (1 Carlton) [1]

Standout. The footballer's footballer. Class midfielder. Very bottom-age but plug 'n play. Rises to the occasion. Quality kid with a professional approach to his footy already. Only flaws are "somewhat" one-sidedness (although he is one of those smart footballers who, through ability to think his way out of trouble, manages to avoid getting exposed) and lack of zip. Neither will cause him great concern at AFL level because he is smart enough to know where to run and how to cut the angles, and he has a great work-rate both ways (although needs to pay his own opponent more respect). He is neither as slow as his reputation would suggest nor quite as quick as his DC times suggest. The type who will surprise you by finishing up with 30 disposals when you might have guessed about 18. Not the type to carry the ball 50m or break the play open in the manner of a Judd but he just keeps on getting his own ball, keeps being in the right place at the right time, and routinely makes the smart decisions and has all the right hurt factors. There has been no more fail-safe AFL gun prospect since Griffen who I rate the most fail-safe since Hodge/Judd/Ball. In '06 SANFL Seniors, was named in the best in an incredible 10 of his 16 games (although surprisingly receiving Margery Medal votes in just 2), despite only turning 17 in March '06. Classy players are sometimes not noted for their tackling. Gibbs however regularly has a high tackle count and he is a very effective tackler.

HAWKINS, Tom (41 Geelong) [2]

Will be a gun FF/CHF. Already a man mountain but huge scope once chiselled down and conditioned. Style-wise, think of an early Lockett but who is team-orientated and works very hard both ways. Will take plenty of marks and kick plenty of goals but his career will also be noted for what he does to create opportunities for team-mates. Good hurt factors. Right footer (thumping kick) who rarely uses his left although he is actually quite good on it. Is often described as slow. He is no gazelle but his pace is underrated and I have no concerns whatsoever re his pace for AFL. He does nothing half-paced - he goes full bore and gets the most out of whatever his legs can produce. Terrific ethic and intensity, and not just for a huge man. Routinely chases and chases full bore. eg In game 2 of U18 Champs, chased a WA player for 70m, passing a team mate who couldn't be bothered - opponent had 15m start but Hawkins chased desperately and actually almost caught the opponent (who admittedly was running 3/4 pace). Mouth-watering prospect.

JETTA, Leroy (18 Essendon) [5]

Great talent if chooses to apply himself. X-factor. Better know by some as a quick, creative, flashy forward but, once he gets his tank right, I believe he will be a gun mid-fielder. Clever, courageous game-breaker. Fairly good decision-making and disposal (although sometimes bites off more than he can chew). Unaccountable, perhaps selfish, and off-field ethic (including time management, commitment) needs improvement. Jetta has been mad keen for AFL centre stage but has yet to embrace the same level of enthusiasm for the hard work and off-field self discipline required for AFL success. His natural game is based more on flamboyance than work ethic but, if he is prepared to get himself in top condition, there is no reason why he can't be very consistent. Immature personality but I've always felt he needed the AFL stage to bring out the best in him. Potential to be the next Kerr (and not just in style). Bargain pick, despite current immaturity.

PROUD, Albert (22 Brisbane) [4]

Tough, pacy, aggressive, consistent. Ethic, intensity, smarts, physical presence. Chases hard (excellent closing speed), hits hard. Because of his late start to '06 (foot operation) and O.P., he was in poor condition at DC (albeit probably too poor) so I'm not reading anything into his DC athletic results, especially poor endurance times. In my pre-draft profile I suggested "those results might encourage enough clubs to overlook him early draft and see him slipping in the order a bit, providing a bargain to the club who takes him". Would be plug 'n play if free of injury (esp O.P.) and fit. Showed better temper control in '06. Will lift his team when all around him are falling. Style-wise, picture an early Ricciuto. Is somewhat one-sided but his disposal, although not faultless, is fairly reliable. Genuine footballer and has the pace that many of the touted mids this year lack.

HOULI, Bachar (42 Essendon) [8]

Injury-prone (only major AFL query is durability) but smart, classy midfielder/HFF. Very good OHF and NHF (negative hurt factor). Not outside per se but, so far, has played the game on his own terms at his own pace, Predator style "off the pack" a la Shakleton,, and is on good terms with himself. Very footy-smart and potentially more athletic than his appearance/style have suggested. I've always suspected he treated underage footy with almost contempt. Will leave no stone unturned and I believe he will not only shine at AFL level but show us a more rounded game (re on-field work rate). Historical concerns re his endurance and pace but I am convinced that, when injury-free, he will have excellent endurance and quite good pace. Absolute bargain.

DJERRKURA, Nathan (25 Geelong) [9]

176cm electrifying, fierce, dynamic, quick, clean, take-them-on, relentless ball-carrying dasher. Byron Picket with some Wirrpanda. Breaks the play open. Exciting combination of speed, motor, attack, physicality and natural footballer ability. Despite his height, I think he is likely to be something special. X-factor. Trademarks are (1) Come from nowhere to run opponent down with excellent closing speed and fierce tackle ("silent assassin" ), (2) Take-them-on dash then kick into forward 50 (if not nailed in the process!). Other main selling points are intensity, balance, contested ball ability, agility, endurance, overhead, consistency, evasion, traffic management, versatility. Gives away an avg 3 frees per game, virtually all through either (over-)ambitiously taking opponents on and getting nailed, or through over-zealous tackles. He's a smart kid and I'm confident he will learn to be more judicious. Regardless, even though 3 FAs a game is not what a coach would normally like to see, I think it is more than balanced by the pressure he puts opponents under (a la Davey, but with brutality) and the number of times he is actually successful in breaking the play open with his daring. i.e. If you want the benefits of his attack on the man and opening up of the play, you should expect to have to wear occasional slip-ups. Benefit greatly outweighs cost in Djerrkura's case. (I'd rather a kid who dares to dare than one who plays introverted). He is as quick as any '06 draftee. He is as good and as reliable in the air as most of the other good smalls/mediums who are good overhead. Usually a good kick and his disposals often hurt. Has the dash, daring and hurt factor you want from an outside player, the hardness and in-close ability you want from an inside player, plays tall, is versatile, is footballer and athlete in equal doses, is a great kid who will be very coachable, and doesn't have a "go home" query. Add endurance, physicality and ethic (both ways) to that and IMHO no other kid in this draft can lay better claim to that package of traits. I'm less hung up on height than many people are. Recent premiership teams, Brownlow high voters and AA teams prove there is always a place for a smaller player if he is special enough in certain areas or as a package. I rated Djerrkura quite a lot earlier than I knew he would go but am very confident he will be very good AFL. Except for (arguably) height, he is made for today's game and could play anywhere down the flanks. Probably best suited to HBF or wing in his early AFL days. Could play BP too but I believe his talents are best utilised where he can afford more risks. In the backline, will be able to supply both Pickett-like pressure as well as plenty of run out of defence and hardball get ability. Down the track I think he could be a good AFL onballer. Has the capacity to potentially be a run-with or even an inside mid. No doubts about his tank or speed or hardness and he is quite clean under pressure (both getting and disposing). And he should be virtually plug 'n play. Bargain.

SELWOOD, Joel (7 Geelong) [11]

First Dibs midfielder. Elite play-reader with great ability to win the ball and to pressure opponents from winning it cleanly. Very balanced genuine footballer. Excellent vision, smarts, very good by hand, strong overhead. Gets to a helluva lot of contests and very competitive in any type of contest, ground level or overhead, regardless of pressure, and against different types of opponents. If I had to describe him in "one" word it would probably be either "relentless" or "highly-competitive". Has most of the typical Selwood traits (courage, ethic, endurance, competitiveness, overhead, lack of pace) but has much better decision-making than the twins. His kicking is also better, albeit not one of his strengths.

SELLAR, James (14 Adelaide) [3]

195cm skilled, well-built footballer with athleticism, smarts, hands, disposal. Flaky '06, intensity query but you don't physically lose what he had displayed prior. Very bottom-age. I'm prepared to virtually ignore '06 as he apparently had to endure various on and off-field difficulties. In the '04 and '05 U16 Champs, I considered him even more impressive than Gibbs. Started 2006 as #1 in my rankings (Gibbs #2). In the end, Gibbs' performances were just so compelling, and without the queries that Sellar's '06 form raised, that I had to slip Sellar behind but I dropped off him only marginally. Even in his "disappointing" '06, he kicked 4g in 1st half of his 1st SANFL Seniors game (as CHF!), beat the highly rated Gumbleton as CHB, and averaged 17 disposals in the U18 Champs. (How many 195cm types, let alone any who had just lost 8kg through illness, do that in any U18 Champs?). By comparison, we were all quite satisfied with the Champs form of Gumbleton, Hansen and Leunberger, and they averaged 15, 13, and 11 disposals respectively and Sellar's disposal was the best of the lot. He even had 15d in just the 2nd 1/2 of one Champs game (albeit as virtually a loose wingman). Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. He did NOT have a disappointing year for a bottom-age 195cm kid, even a highly rated one. He just had a disappointing year for Sellar, based on our expectations of him specifically. Why did we have such high expectations? Because of the talent he had shown over a 2 year period prior to that. I suspect he has a personal issue to conquer but I would have taken him on the assumption that he can, such is his upside. Should be very versatile but especially has the makings of an outstanding CHB (although his preference is CHF). An exciting, and rare, combination of not only leap, 195cm, marking strength, defensive and negating skills, cool head and smarts but, importantly, the pace and confidence to give regular run and linking out of defence and roost the ball long to a target. I foresee him regularly turning defence into goal-scoring opportunities. I also think he is more suited to the straight ahead aspects of CHB than the "stop/start" of CHF. Excellent ruck skills and could well be a good AFL ruckman/follower a la Goodes (without the freakishness), despite being only 195cm, as he has such a big leap and athleticism and he seems to enjoy ruck contests. Has virtually all the attributes of a modern CHF also and I do rate him highly in that role. Makes the right decisions. Good evasion. Good vision and disposal (including depth), even on the run. Good hurt factors. Trademarks are (1) Fluency - in everything. (Always looks to be doing every action "on the bit", effortlessly). (2) One-grab mark, positioning and timing well, then either a quick, accurate feed or immediately run off his opponent and do a fluent, long, probably accurate kick. (3) Run to link, moving with arms stiff and hanging down, seemingly moving in slow motion until you notice the opponent struggling to keep up.

THORP, Mitchell (6 Hawthorn) [6]

Versatile tall. Main selling points are contested marking, fantastic endurance / ground coverage, clean hands, vision, spoiling. Accountable, footy smart in many respects. Good courage and wins more than his share of hardball/contested gets. '06 form overall was good but not quite as impressive as I'd hoped but he didn't really do a pre-season (due to O.P., which he is now on top of). Huge leap, very strong overhead (although I would like to see him try to protect the ball a bit more often when possible, a la Carey, instead of taking the ball directly above or a bit behind his head). Young for his age but potential Chris Grant if he stops getting ahead of himself. I rate Thorp behind only Hawkins and Sellar as the best KPP "potential package" in this draft. Capable of making CHF a "permanent" role at AFL but might be best suited to CHB. Main query as a defender would be whether a quick leading forward might show him up for pace over the first few metres. His pace is a little hard to judge as he has had O.P. and also, although he covers a lot of ground, he is not noted for hard chasing or ball-carrying and he sometimes, at least at U18 level, seems casual. I'm comfortable with his pace over a distance - for his size. There have been times when he has looked a little tardy and the main concern would be the 1st few metres. Some surprising pace when he wants to pull it out. eg in a 40m run to the loose ball, Thorp gave Petterd a few metres start but got there first and both seemed flat out. In a VFL game, Thorp kept up with Baird (his opponent) in a 25m run to the ball. Baird recorded a 3.00sec 20m and a 0.96sec 5m time a few years ago. On the other hand, Thorp was left in the wake of another VFL player on a number of occasions in one game when playing FB(?) whenever that player was on a lead. I query there though, how much was due to lack of pace on Thorp's part and how much was due to poor anticipation of, and reaction to, the opponent's take-off on the lead. Kicking is currently mixed bag but has the potential to be very good and I'm confident will be. Sometimes he seems a bit too casual under no pressure. Genuinely dual-sided. Nice economical, fluent kicking style, good depth. I noticed at 1/4, 3/4 time huddles that he seemed intelligent and very switched on. When deciding to carry the ball, he has a fairly regular tendency (more often at U18 level than VFL) to ignore the nearby presence of an opponent and approach his kick preparation as if he was in complete space (through arrogance? lack of awareness?) and becomes vulnerable to being bumped from the side as he kicks, to the detriment of his kicking effectiveness. He has some evasive ability and I'd like to see him work harder in those situations to create space before kicking. At the very least, he often takes a bit too long to dispose and his lateral awareness in such situations is not great. Thorp is very committed and I would have drafted him myself and prepared to part with a pick as early as #3 (Hawkins not being available) if I strongly wanted a KP and felt such an early pick was necessary. However, if height didn't need to factor into drafting considerations, I would prefer to take either Jetta or Proud (not that anything like pick #3 was ever going to be needed for them).

CATEGORY TWO - WILL BE AT LEAST GOOD (I didn't bother too much about the order but its very (!) roughly in the order of their upside, with some allowance for my level of confidence in them achieving it): (Some are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it).

HANSEN, Lachlan (3 Kangaroos) [7]

Likely AFL long-termer (probably CHB) and would have been my #4 if not for disappointing OHF (offensive hurt factor) due to iffy kicking and tunnel vision on the run. (Needs to more frequently look for options to feed off to, tends to too often just get and kick long and direct without displaying good vision or looking for best option). Even when not on the run, is too inclined to kick off virtually one step. Very strong overhead (hands, judgement, balance). Excellent endurance / coverage, ethic, courage. Pace when injury-free is at least "OK", although a bit slower than his DC times suggest. Backs his endurance and loves to run his opponent up and around the ground. Missed a couple of weeks with a hip complaint prior to '06 U18 Champs (cleaned up post-draft) and I felt he never looked completely free in his movement for the rest of the season, despite generally good form.

HISLOP, Tom (20 Essendon) [10]

Aggressive powerhouse. Plug n play. Versatile bullish onballer/flanker who can play small or above his height, has fairly good pace, takes no prisoners, always gives a contest and gets a lot of contested ball but currently doesn't look for, take or hit the right option often enough - too often kicks long instead of looking for short options (hand or foot). Other main concern AFL-wise might be over-aggression. Main selling points are physicality, competitiveness, courage, intensity, overhead, endurance, balance, strength, consistency. Trademarks are (1) Hardball get, then hurried disposal, (2) Crunch a pack or an opponent, perhaps taking a very strong mark that he has no right to take. Often clean, especially at ground level in "static" situations (although not "routinely: clean overall). If not for the somewhat high number of blind and other inaccurate kicks, I would rank him about #5. I love his competitiveness and aggression at both man and ball but he must start getting better return from his possession tally. Kicking was better in VFL than at U18. He is not a bad kick per se. Good depth and dual-sided. The issue is reliability. Kicking style needs work. He tilts to the left, which limits your error margin over a short distance, and his arm movements need work. IMHO it is important for both arms to work virtually in sync, helping your body stay balanced, both laterally and vertically. Hislop's arms are way out of synch and affect his centre-of-mass transfer and his ability to kick directly through the ball. Left arm often spends time bent at 90 degrees upwards then comes forward and across his body, while his right arm stays back, hangs down and does nothing. By the end of his kick he is often off-balance. Those faults should be fairly "easily" fixed and will make a big difference to his kicking reliability. Hislop and Armitage are similar types, age, great endurance and both are virtually plug 'n play. Both courageous hardnuts with good work rate and both with sub-optimal disposal. Hislop has more pace, is a bit physically stronger, and is the better kick. Hislop arguably has greater impact too. I would definitely take Hislop over Armitage, much as I admire Armitage. Jetta is X-factor vs risk but is a very quick, electrifying magician and is capable of being a quality user (not that he is yet). Hislop is none of those but he will deliver for you every time, whereas Jetta will switch on when it suits him. Jetta's pace, daring, flair and disposal makes him potentially much more of an impact player. Hislop is more a player who stops the opposition having impact through his hardness at man and ball but he too can turn a game. Likes to take opponents on and carry the ball and is often, although not routinely, judicious. Astute in corralling an opponent but usually prefers the bone-crunching tackle or bump. I have been impressed re how very switched on and intelligent he is at the 1/4, 3/4 huddles. With ever-increasing sophistication of team game plans, being able to be on the same page as the coach is more important than ever. Exceptionally strong overhead for his size, especially the big screamer from behind but can mark from any angle/position and attacks his marks / hits the pack like there's no tomorrow. He is on the slower end of the "quick midfielder" scale rather than the quicker end of the "slightly slowish midfielder" scale. Probably best suited to HBF or onball but, despite being only 184cm, is versatile enough to play anywhere down the flanks. Could be exposed by a very quick or very tall opponent but, even then, is likely to be at least mainly competitive, such is his ability to play tall yet also have enough pace and smarts to know where to run, how to cut angles and how to pressure both aerially and at ground level. Has the motor and competitiveness to become an excellent run-with (in time) and that's the role in which I possibly favour him.

ARMITAGE, David (9 St. Kilda) [19]

Smart goer with heart, motor. Iffy pace. Definite AFL but MUST improve kicking.

TIPPETT, Kurt (32 Adelaide) [12]

Versatile, mobile newby ruck/KP. Works hard. No very major fault. 19yo but big upside. I'm generally sceptical about kids who are in their first year of footy. That's because such kids usually show only tiny snippets that excite you. I'm far less willing than many are to extrapolate from such little data, no matter how impressed I may have been with the kid's snippets. With Tippett, he has shown a lot, not just random cameos. I think he has terrific potential. What really impresses me is the amount of footy smarts he already has, albeit that he is still in the early stages of the learning curve. Although still raw, I doubt anyone who knew nothing about him would realise when they first saw him play that he was new to footy. 201cm types who are likely to be able to play any KP or ruck, have the pace of a quite quick midfielder, are physically virtually plug 'n play, can leap over tall buildings, can get their own ball, are at least competitive overhead, have a sharp brain and have the ethics/intensity of an inside mid don't grow on trees. Many of the things I like about Tippett would be good in any player but I could add "especially for 201cm" to a lot of my comments. I am rating him as a ruck who can play KP but I would be almost as confident rating him as a KPP who can ruck. I rate him "definite" AFL, despite being a newby.

DICK, Brad (44 Collingwod) [24]

Enigmatic but magical when en song. Risky ranking but huge upside

EDWARDS, Shane (26 Richmond) [26]

Skinny but nimble, slick, innovative, goes hard. Ranked on upside

COLLARD, Clayton (31 Fremantle) [13]

Highly skilled midfielder/ flanker. Painfully shy and naive about the workload required for AFL so will need quality mentoring but definitely has AFL ability. Query re ability to adapt so is some risk but he has big upside, class and some X-factor. Other main selling points are X-factor, smarts / vision, clean hands, evasion, balance, overhead. Trademarks are (1) Vacuum the ball off the carpet on the run, take on and perhaps make a fool of the oncoming opponent, then dob a nice goal or set a team mate up to do so, (2) Screamer. He might lose concentration before getting to the last page of the team's play book but, for every hair he might make you tear out, he'll give you a moment where you will feel smug that he is on your list. Has mainly played outside roles (HFF) but I am confident he will furnish into an inside mid option in time if/when he can get his endurance up enough. I compare him in style somewhat to Tyson Edwards but I also think he will be able (in time) to play all the roles that Tyson has played. Has always lived in the shadow, on and off-field, of his best mate, Jetta, It's often "Jetta, the star footballer, and his mate Collard". If both play AFL and get the most out of themselves, I believe Jetta will be the better player but with Collard probably not far behind. There seems a tendency in recruiting circles to talk as if Jetta is Collard's better performed younger brother. However Collard was the better performed in WAFL Seniors, was also named in '06 WA Seniors (!) state squad, and Jetta is actually 5 months older. On sheer ability, I rate Collard's AFL potential as "Definite" and only one aspect made me downgrade him to "Likely", viz "How well and quickly is he likely to settle in and feel like he belongs?". My only other significantly concern is the O.P. he has been battling. His DC weight was listed as 86kg but his fighting weight would currently be around 80kg. He "couldn't" (?) keep himself in good condition while suffering O.P. late season. Career-wise, Collard and Jetta getting split up into different states may be the best thing for both boys. Clayton can stop living in Leroy's shadow and that will be a watershed point in his development. I would definitely have been prepared to draft him with a pick around my ranking if necessary (not that it ever would have been). Assuming he settles in reasonably OK (!!), I am confident Collard will make as big a splash as most of this draft's first rounders, perhaps ready to debut in '07.

HARBROW, Jarrod (R27 Western Bulldogs) [29]

Clever slick improver. Risk but I'm more a fan than others are.

GRIGG, Shaun (19 Carlton) [39]

Consistent tall mid but burns ball way too often by foot. I have identified basic flaws in his kicking technique which should be fixable. If I somehow knew for certain that such flaws would be identified and fixed, he'd be one of the first be in this category, would have earned a very much earlier ranking from me, and I would have confidently labelled him "definite AFL 200 gamer". Kicking is probably his only major flaw as he is otherwise a very attractive package. His current kicking reliability is almost a show-stopper though.

THOMAS, Lindsay (53 Kangaroos) [27]

Top-age surprise early ranking but clever & works both ways. Needs endurance

ADAMS, Leigh (R 3 Kangaroos) [35]

Rover/FP/BP. Smart, inside. Honesty over class but no real flaw.

LEUENBERGER, Matthew (4 Brisbane) [16]

Promising ruck. Query balance but ...

KRAKOUER, Nathan (39 Port Adelaide) [48]

Lightning. Great user, smarts. If 75kg, serious AFL and would be in my top category. 61kg the only worry but a huge one. He will literally have to create history (re the modern era) as his BMI represents easily the skinniest build on record. His diet opportunities will be better now and that's the big hope.

MOSS, Gary (56 Hawthorn) [17]

Skinny & not lightning but every kg is footballer. Likely bargain due to build.

URQUHART, Gavin (21 Kangaroos) [28]

OP killed his '06 but definite AFL potential HBF. O.P. worries me and he makes this category on the explicit assumption that he overcomes his O.P..

REIMERS, Kyle (47 Essendon) [21]

Take-them-on ball-carrying utility. Good overhead. Iffy decision-making but has real flair and presence and has been a rapid improver both on and off-field (and the latter in particular needed to improve). Still has to be a query re ability to meet the off-field demands of a professional AFL footballer so I can understand why he wasn't taken until pick 47 but I ranked him much earlier on the assumption that he will choose to sustain his recent improvement trend in this aspect.

ANDERSON, Joseph (67 Carlton) [15]

Rapidly improving 188cm, virtually bottom-age, hard-running utility. Still raw, not silky, but made for today's game. Great endurance, "handy" pace, huge leap, reads the play well, knows how to find the pill, routinely looks for best option, fairly often delivers accurately, is courageous and crashes packs. Proven himself against men. Main queries (all mentality-related) are: plays off the pack / too reactive / too Predator, defensive smarts, accountability. I've ranked him mainly on upside. He still has a heap of improvement in him. The sealers for me were (1) he will leave no stone unturned (2) his rapid improvement since mid '05 including radical changes to his on-field presence, impact, and physical attributes. Even if he can't fix the flaws I've identified, he still has enough going for him to be a fairly handy 60-100 gamer. In the '05 U18 and subsequent '05 U16 Champs I observed he was vanilla-size and build, introverted and played vanilla and introverted. I was staggered to hear that, just 8 months later, he won Darwin Seniors B&F (as 17yo) and was runner-up to Daryl White for B&F medal in the '06 NT Seniors GF. Come the '06 TAC trials, I couldn't believe the dramatic transformation. He was now a few centimetres taller, had filled out really well, had significantly lifted his pace, and played with a flair, confidence and physicality that were virtually non-existent a year earlier. Even his appearance and persona were markedly different. I was very impressed with what he did at the '06 U18 Champs, and quite impressed with much from his lead-up games. However I was still less than impressed with what he did NOT do. Much of the time, he played virtually loose man across half-back, presumably to coach's instructions, which makes assessing him a bit more difficult. He was still too reactive a bit too often and still a bit too often "played off the pack". In AFL he won't be able to wait to see how the play in his immediate area unfolds before deciding to involve himself, or letting an opponent have first crack, or not displaying appropriate defensive effort or defensive smarts. He is not a "natural footy brain for all situations" type like M Voss but he does sometimes displays a quickish brain. He strikes me as the 2yo colt who has all the energy in the world and looks a real prospect but needs more racing experience to knock some rough edges off and you're not quite sure what distance will suit him best in the long term but you reckon he moves better than most of the other colts in the paddock. His package has so many potential goodies in it that are at least at the 80% stage that, even if he doesn't later shine in a couple of the aspects I expect him to, he will still be value for his other attributes. I would have drafted him myself, although he was never going to need a pick as early as my ranking denoted. Suited to HBF where he can give some run and linking. "Wing" should suit too. Unlikely onballer (unless perhaps as run-with, in time). Will probably turn out to be a bargain.

WELLINGHAM, Sharrod (R10 Collingwood) [37]

Promising ball magnet. Slippery, smart. Quick but should carry ball more. Upside

BEDFORD, Liam (R23 Geelong) [38]

Skinny, outside, slippery, quick, clean. Needs to do more. Punt on upside vs wt

SMITH, Chris (R13 Fremantle) [34]

Honest, committed, versatile. No obvious fault, no special strength. Underrated.

Additional comments:

HAYES, Daniel (R12 MEL) []

Has the football ability to be in this group. A troubled outside flashy wing/HFF who, regardless of ability, needs 10 mentors. Way too risky for me to even consider including in my rankings, let alone have confidence in him adapting to AFL requirements.

[Jarka 767]

Daniel Hayes, hmmm, this kid could be CAC's and Daniher's greatest success, I take back my comments in another thread about conservative attitudes. I really think this kid can make it.

[deanox 9,989]

Daniel Hayes, hmmm, this kid could be CAC's and Daniher's greatest success, I take back my comments in another thread about conservative attitudes. I really think this kid can make it.

out of interest, why do you think he can make it? whats he shown to you?

[Jarka 767]

out of interest, why do you think he can make it? whats he shown to you?

Me personally? Nothing. But I've seen him play a couple of times and I think he can seriously play, worth working through the hard times imho.

[deanox 9,989]

awesomes, i was just interested if you'd seen him play or not. i havnt seen him and i was wondering if the comments were worth noting or if you'd changed your tune based on the wisby report lol

[Jarka 767]

awesomes, i was just interested if you'd seen him play or not. i havnt seen him and i was wondering if the comments were worth noting or if you'd changed your tune based on the wisby report lol

I've been reading Wisbey's reports now for years, but like everything else in football it's just his opinion. He gets as many right as he gets wrong but his descriptions are usually pretty good and very, very in depth. Even though his knowledge far outweighs mine I wouldn't change my own opinion on a player. It's just really good to see someone's insight on players who sees alot of games, like when CAC makes comments here, they normally pick up things that I don't see or missed.

My post though was probably more about acknowledging something that I accused the current coaching team of, and the drafting of Hayes proves me wrong.

[deanox 9,989]

...

good enough for me mate, i wasnt having a go, i was just wondering if youd seen him and what you thought...

[Alan Smithee 0]

they normally pick up things that I don't see or missed.

My post though was probably more about acknowledging something that I accused the current coaching team of, and the drafting of Hayes proves me wrong.

I too have heard a lot about Hayes. A lot of it is good. But I also hear he needs to completely focus on applying himself. Even more so than the average footballer, which, from all reports, I hear he is not.

Jarka, for such a young student of the game, he is well & truly in the spotlight.

[Jarka 767]

good enough for me mate, i wasnt having a go, i was just wondering if youd seen him and what you thought...

Hayes is really worthy of discussion, it seems he'll be the type of player that will either be a great success or a spectacular failure, nothing in between. Can you imagine how you'd feel being a coach and drafting him and being responsible for helping him to succeed?

[Alan Smithee 0]

Hayes is really worthy of discussion, it seems he'll be the type of player that will either be a great success or a spectacular failure, nothing in between.

What makes you say that Jarka?

Going by what i've heard, most Demon fans would be satisfied if he simply makes a commitment to apply himself. If he does, the rest would surely take care of itself and there'd be no need to speculate?

[DEES 0]

Demonland, do you know where i can check out the other past years(2003,2004)?

[Jarka 767]

What makes you say that Jarka?

Going by what i've heard, most Demon fans would be satisfied if he simply makes a commitment to apply himself. If he does, the rest would surely take care of itself and there'd be no need to speculate?

Well, there goes 90% of the threads on this website.

[jacey 333]

If Hayes makes it, great. If he doesn't, i'm not too fussed.

Not every playa who's drafted to mfc are gonna b superstars or best 22.

CAC's done brilliantly so if we get a few duds, so be it.